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Wednesday, April 13, 2016

SYMPHONY LTD: COOL PRODUCT, HOT STOCK !!!

Scrip Code: 517385 SYMPHONY
CMP:  Rs. 2,421.45; Market Cap: Rs. 8,469.86 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 3,275 / Rs. 1,650.00.
Total Shares: 3,49,78,500 shares; Promoters : 2,62,33,870 shares – 75 %; Total Public holding : 87,44,630 shares – 25.00 %; Book Value: Rs. 82.96; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 38.67; Dividend: 700.00 %; P/E: 62.61 times; Ind. P/E: 50.83; EV/EBITDA: 44.60.
Total Debt: ZERO Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 8,465.13 Cr.

SYMPHONY LIMITED: Symphony Limited was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Ahmedabad, India. The company was formerly known as Sanskrut Comfort Systems Pvt Ltd and changed to Symphony Comfort Systems Ltd in 1995 and it again changed its name to Symphony Limited in 2010. The company came out with an IPO on February 1994 with a premium of Rs. 35 per share and announced splits of its face value from Rs. 10 to Rs. 2 per share in February 2012. The company engages in manufacturing of consumer durables under the brand name “Symphony”. Symphony Limited manufactures and sells consumer durable products in India. The company offers domestic, commercial, and industrial air coolers. It provides desert, tower, room, and personal coolers for residences, shops, showrooms, and offices and various industrial coolers for factories, offices, schools, malls, assembly halls, warehouses, and metro stations. The company also exports its products to approximately 60 countries. Its products are already being sold in U.S.A, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and South–East Asia & shortly will be available in many other countries. It offers its products through a network of distributors and dealers. Symphony coolers have plastic bodies unlike conventional metallic air coolers manufactured by the unorganised sector, are UV Cooling pads which combine cooling effects with elegant looks. The company has wide range of products which includes Evaporative Air Coolers, Air Conditioners and Water Heaters. The company offers products under Evaporative Air Coolers are Desert Coolers, Room Coolers and Personal Coolers. The products offered in Air Conditioners are Window Air Conditioners and Split Air Conditioners. The product offered under Water heaters is only Sauna Heaters. Symphony Limited subsidiaries include Symphony Air Coolers Inc, USA. Symphony Limited is locally compared with Bajaj Electricals Ltd, Havells India Ltd, Khaitan India Ltd and globally compared with Daikin Industries Ltd of Japan, Gree Electric Appliances Inc of China, Lennox International Inc. of USA, Tabreed alias National Central Cooling Company PJSC of UAE, Aaon Inc. of USA, Johnson Controls Inc. of Wisconsin USA, Denso Corporation of Japan, Ingersoll-Rand Plc of Ireland, Dover Corporation of Illinois, Mitsubishi Electric of Japan.

Investment Rationale:  
Symphony Limited Established in 1988, is a world leader in evaporative air coolers, Symphony focuses on innovative design to create better and eco-friendly products for domestic and industrial customers in 60 countries across the globe. Symphony’s design-driven innovation and green engineering is a sustainable competitive advantage. Company delivers market-leading products with engineering and design innovation, improved energy conservation, distinctive styling and customer-centric design. Symphony leverages a unique and successful asset light business model for its residential coolers in India and in-house lean manufacturing for its industrial coolers in Mexico to achieve sustainable and profitable growth. Symphony is a global company committed to develop sustainable and responsible products which means leading the air-cooling industry's efforts to develop breakthrough green technologies to combat climate change. Symphony is present in key retailers like Wal-Mart, Lowes, Carrefour, Singer, Sears, Costco, Home Depot etc. Symphony provides domestic (plastic), commercial (heavy duty metal coolers) and industrial (metal cooler-machine made modular unit) air coolers across various models. Employing an environment-friendly carbon reduction product strategy, Symphony air coolers offer a superior value proposition to air conditioners. With increased global warming and environmental degradation, people around the world recognise that businesses must act responsibly and offer green products to customers. Symphony enables people across the world to capitalise on eco-friendly, energy-saving air cooling technologies as a serious alternative to harmful and inefficient air-conditioners. Symphony believes an environment-friendly approach transcends commercial considerations and a cleaner environment is the best legacy one can leave behind for future generations. Symphonys power-saving Technology is currently the only air cooling technology in the market that complies with international standards for product energy efficiency. Air coolers represent a low-cost, energy-efficient and an environmentally-friendly alternative to air conditioners. Air coolers are simple to use and cools air through the evaporation of water. Evaporative cooling differs from typical air conditioning systems which use vapour-compression or absorption refrigeration cycles. Evaporative cooling works by employing waters large enthalpy of vaporization. The temperature of dry air can be dropped significantly through the phase transition of liquid water to water vapor (evaporation), which can cool air using much less energy than refrigeration. In extremely dry climates, evaporative cooling of air has the added benefit of conditioning the air with more moisture for the comfort of building occupants. They also filter dust and dirt without drying the air. Unlike conventional air conditioners, evaporative coolers require fresh air and work best with open windows and doors. They are best suited for residences, showrooms, shops, offices, especially where doors are opened and closed frequently which is major advantage over conventional air conditioners. Besides, they consume significantly less electricity and produce no emissions. Symphony offers a wider range of air coolers, which find applications also where it is difficult or impossible to install and use an air conditioner. Symphonys air coolers are easy-to install, relatively inexpensive, and can be easily maintained by a layperson. The domestic air cooler segment is largely fragmented with about 70 % to 80 % of sales accounted for by unorganised players. The branded air cooler industry is competitive in nature with the top four players accounting for more than 90 % of the branded air cooler market. Symphony is the leading player in the space followed by Kenstar (Videocon Industries Limited). Other players include Bajaj Electricals, Khaitan, Maharaja and Usha. Symphony is India’s leading evaporative air cooler manufacturer with a market share of 55 % in value terms in the organised product category. Over the years, it has been able to create a strong brand name, which has become synonymous with air coolers in India. With its focus on R&D and innovation, Symphony constantly innovates in its products to enhance design, technology and post sales services. It has launched more than one new model annually for six years. Over the years, it has established a robust distribution network comprising 750 dealers, 16,500 retail dealers and 4,500 dealers in towns. Also, Symphony has consistently invested in brand building through advertisement campaigns. It spends around 4% of its sales over the last three years and 6 % in FY16 in advertisement for strengthening brand recall. Further, the company plans to grow its network to 40,000 dealers over the medium-term for deeper penetration and a stronger presence in rural and semi-urban markets. In spite of a bleak macro environment, Symphony clocked overall volume CAGR of 13 % during FY11-15 supported by strong demand from domestic markets led by launch of new models during the same period. Company introduced six new models of ‘i’ series air coolers, the intelligent coolers with features such as empty tank alarm, full Remote function, memory restore function, dura pump technology, etc. With increase in spending in rural areas & with increasing demand from overseas countries would help to drive Symphony’s overall volume at a CAGR of 18 % during FY15-18E. Symphony operates through an asset light model wherein it outsources manufacturing of air coolers to about nine exclusive vendors in India and uses the cash and carry model for sales. However, the company retains the rights for product development, design and marketing function to maintain the exclusivity of products and technologies of Symphony from its Vendors. Symphony, together with its subsidiaries, offers 87 models of air coolers for almost all categories of customers. Outsourcing products to nine different vendors and not sharing intellectual rights creates a strong entry barrier for other players, providing an economic moat. Also, it helps Symphony to concentrate on its core competence i.e. “innovation” in product development and feature evaluation. The company has maintained its return ratios i.e. RoCE of 35 %, RoE at 39 %, giving last three year’s average of 39 %, 34% mainly due to an asset light model and almost debt-free status since 2006. The zero debt status provides adequate room to fund Symphony’s organic and inorganic growth opportunities whenever required. Symphony operates on a cash and carry model with almost 95 % of domestic sales on advance payment terms with dealers and distributors with the remaining i.e. 5 % through large format stores. In the international business, about 40 % is through large format stores while 60 % is through dealers and distributors. The receivable days last three year’s average is 45 days on the books of the company & are only a reflection of 5 % of the domestic market and 40 % in international markets where Symphony has to provide some levy on receivables due to bulk orders. The cash & carry model and higher supplier days help the company to maintain lower working capital requirements throughout the season. The company recently acquired Mexico based Impco SDERL DE CV (Impco). Currently, Impco contributes 18 % to the consolidated topline with a major chunk of revenues which is 65 % of overall sales coming from centralised and heavy duty air coolers and the remaining 35 % of sales from room coolers. Currently, Impco serves markets like the US, India, Iraq and some of the Middle East countries. Symphony started leveraging the enduring relationships established by Impco with large format stores like Wal-Mart, Sears, Home Depot, Lowes, Famsa and Costco, among others, to widen its presence in North, South and Central America. Besides, Symphony’s acquisition has created a new opportunity in the category of heavy duty air coolers for outdoor applications and industrial coolers, a project-oriented, non-seasonal business segment. The company was the first in India’s organised sector to launch industrial air coolers and establish a presence in a number of business spaces, viz. food & beverages and religious establishments, among others. Symphony has completed 109 installations. The company has executed orders for some renowned brands namely Asian Paints, DHL, Dixon Technologies, Swaminarayan Temple, Iskcon Temple, Marico, Tractor India and Shivam Auto Tech (part of Hero Group). Symphony received its first order from Indian Railways to install air coolers in waiting rooms of Kota and Godhra railway stations. Plans to improve operational efficiency at Impco to have a capital light and asset light business model same in line with Symphony’s Indian operation. Impco can focus more on sales & marketing, business development, research & development, product innovation, etc. to improve operational performance and provide flexibility in operations. As a result, by monetising surplus assets to become even internal debt free company by paying off the parent company loans (Symphony’s) and also further improving the profitability by savings of interest, depreciation, forex fluctuation and other overheads Entry into Chinese market through acquisition Symphony acquired a 100 % stake in China-based air cooling company MKE for the consideration of a meagre Rs. 1.55 crore. During FY15, MKE recorded sales of Rs. 50 crore while it recorded loss at bottom-line of Rs. 9 to Rs. 10 Crore. The acquisition will facilitate Symphony’s access into China which is second largest air cooler market after India and other international market. The acquisition will also provide Symphony the benefit of sourcing of raw materials for its OEMs. MKE also has a strong R&D and test centre, which meets the quality standards of the US and Australia. Symphony aims to improve its sales to the level it clocked during its peak of Rs. 130 crore and turn around its business following various strategic moves. Raising demand, rural consumption increase and diversifying in emerging markets makes prospects of Symphony much bright & regular cash flow in coming future.  

Outlook and Valuation:

Symphony Limited has established itself as a world leader in evaporative air coolers. Symphony is globally popular because of the sensitivity to good design which is a universal phenomenon. In its history of more than two decades, Symphony has gone through various stages of development. The company was a pioneer in introducing cooler as a lifestyle product for the first time in India and launched plastic body coolers compared to the then available metal coolers and was a market leader in the air cooling market. Symphony’s products are designed to give very high air delivery at very low power consumption. Symphony Limited has a market share of more than 50 % in Indian cooler segment. India’s air cooler market is growing at 20 % p.a. with the organised segment growing faster at 25 %, given low penetration levels of 5 % for the air cooler segment and a consumer shift away from the unorganised market. Symphony Limited is a clear leader in the air cooler market with 50 % share in the organised segment and which is 30 % of the Rs 2,000 Cr air cooler market (organised + unorganised). Currently, the air cooler industry is largely dominated by the unorganised segment 80 % volume market share. There can be a shift from the unbranded to branded category due to rising aspiration level provides huge potential for organised players. Hence, organized industry is likely to grow at 25 % CAGR in FY15-25E. Symphony being the market leader is expected to benefit the most from this structural shift in the long run. Symphony will record 24 % volume CAGR in FY15-25E. Further, as a policy, Symphony would keep the dividend payout at more than 50%. This would increase its return ratios, going forward. On April 12, 2016, the honourable district court, Gandhinagar, Gujarat granted a stay order in favour of Symphony against Wim Plast Ltd, which has launched "Cello" Air Cooler models in India namely "Marvel",'Wave' and 'Tower' which were smiliar to registered designs of Symphony Ltd models 'Winter', 'Sumo' and 'Diet'. Symphony pointed out to the Court that Wim Plast's 'Marvel' model is identical and copy to Symphony's 'Winter' model, Wim Plasts 'Wave' model is copy to Symphony's 'Sumo' model and another 'Tower' model is copy to Sympony's 'Diet' model. The district Court of Gandhinagar Gujarat order stated that by way of ad-interim injunction, the Cello (Wim Plast) are restrained by an order of temporary injunction from manufacturing, marketing, advertising and publishing, selling the products which is having identical and deceptively similar design as of design of Symphony's models Winter, Sumo & Diet. Symphony will continue to take recourse to every legal option available to it to stop Wim Plast and such other imitators from launching, air cooler models in India which are copy-cats of Symphony's range of air coolers. Symphony's management is clear that they will leave no stone unturned to defend its Intellectual properties and will take all necessary legal action against all individuals and/or companies that infringe upon them. Symphony reported its highest quarterly revenues of Rs. 160 Cr which was 20 % YoY growth during 2QFY16. The domestic revenues grew by 20 % YoY to Rs. 150 Cr while the exports reported 13 % YoY growth at Rs. 12.80 Cr. The focus on incremental dealer enrolments coupled with its dominant positioning in the air- cooler segment has undoubtedly helped Symphony push the primary sales to record levels. The company can report similar growth during 3QFY16. In the international business, Symphony has initiated measures to convert the IMPCO business to an asset-light model by outsourcing its manufacturing processes. It also concluded the acquisition of Munter Keruilai. The China acquistion, which is now, became 100 % wholly-owned subsidiary effective 1 Jan 2016. The EBITDA grew by 24.8 % YoY with margins improving 15.5 % YoY to 37 %. Margin expansion was led by 3.40 % YoY gains in gross margin to 53.9 %, offset by an increase in employee/other expense (as % of net sales) by 0.80 % to 1.00 % YoY to 5.8 %/11 %. Adj. PAT grew 32.5 % YoY to Rs. 47.7 Cr aided by other income growth of 78 % to Rs 7.4 Cr and a 1.95 % drop in tax rate to 28.3 %. Management maintained its mid-to-long term earnings guidance of 20-25 % CAGR. Symphony can deliver strong earnings growth at a 34 % CAGR over FY15-FY18. At the current market price of Rs. 2,421.45, the stock is trading at a PE of 59.36 x FY16E and 54.11 x FY17E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 40.79 in FY16E and Rs. 44.72 in FY17E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.   

KEY FINANCIALSFY15FY16EFY17EFY18E
SALES ( Crs) 545.66586.03641.12 818.10
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr) 164.44198.88218.27 261.10
EPS () 33.2840.7944.7274.60
PE (x)74.9761.1855.7929.30
P/BV (x)30.0824.1819.4211.50
EV/EBITDA (x)52.3743.1038.9223.20
ROE (%) 40.12 39.5234.8138.40
ROCE (%)57.4055.8649.4747.40

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) -  Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold  SYMPHONY LTD in my any of the portfolios.


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Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.  
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Monday, April 4, 2016

It's my Birthday Today :)


Hello Friends!! 
 It’s my Birthday today .. J J …and am too, little bit of happy & excited like everyone else on Birthday’sJ, no matter how old are you, you too have that pleasant feeling about the year coming ahead, we are happy that we have passed off one year, and optimistic for the coming one. Last year of mine was a mix but  the year gone by left many joys and memories. I always write something for all you my dear reader friends on this day, as this is a day when I speak my mind and heart out.

The year gone by was beautiful; off course on market front, it cannot be said so, but would also say it was not bad either, at least for me and my stocks, yeah we were not in green but did well by benchmark’s performance and this does not discourages me to be invested. I always advocate stock market investing. I truly believe that India has huge potential and is definitely a long term story driven on consumption demand and is better positioned to enjoy demographic dividends. Indian economy is of Rs. 105 lakh crores ($ 1.59 trillion) with our stock market capitalisation of Rs. 94.71 lakh crores (as on 1 April 2016), with registered investors of 3.07 Cr (2.45 % of our total population). Whereas, US has market capitalizing is of $ 19.8 trillion which is also the biggest representing 52 % of the world’s market cap. US has population of roughly about 31.90 Cr and investing population in stock markets are whopping 14.35 Cr or I should say 45 %, and we at mere 2.5 %. India has savings rate of 36 % and still only 7 % of it comes to the equity market. Indian Retail investors hold around $ 16 billion of Indian equity. These figues says a lot and we should understand the potential of our strength, encourage investing in equities and should not shy away from stock markets, terming it as “Gamble”. 

Indian corporates have tremendous positive earning potential, & there are vast numbers of businesses of various kinds available at better price. What we misunderstand is that we buy at wrong price and most often we buy on tips, and there’s where we fall off. I truly believe that “Valuations are the slave of Earnings”, if you trap the earnings right you get the valuation right, off course with sentiments the stocks do falls back, but at the end the valuations do prevails. Look at the stocks with net profit margins above the fixed maturity instruments, with minimum debt and high ROE & ROCE’s. Now, there are many who would say we don’t understand these terms or we dont have much time to spare to, for them I would say go for mutual funds- let the expert fund managers do the job for you, but do invest, be the part of new vibrant India. Built up your retirement fund, start investing in mutual funds in Systematic manner via SIP (systematic investment plan). Take a minimum investment goal for five years at least, start investing little bit every month and you shall surely win, and those who are enterprising enough should look out for stocks with high net profit margins, low debt, high ROE & ROCE’s and off course strong Cash Flows. In all do invest and study well before investing. There’s lots of opportunity out there and participate in the growing economy of ours.

I am optimistic about markets and beileve that more positives are yet to come. Be positive and Be invested. Lastly I would like to thank all you wonderful people, who have become impairable part of my life now, who have constantly encouraged me and inspired me in all aspects of my life.

Again, I take this opportunity to give Thanks to all my reader friends for being there for me, and encouraging me...

                                           God Bless You All !!!

Thanks to my parents who made me what I am here today And Thanks God for all of it !!!

Warm Regards,

Bhavikk Shah.  


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Wednesday, March 23, 2016

BHARTI INFRATEL LTD : BEST STOCK TO OWN !!!

Scrip Code: 534816 INFRATEL
CMP:  Rs. 390.85;   Market Cap: Rs. 74,131.23 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 499.65 / Rs. 341.35.
Total Shares: 189,66,67,069 shares; Promoters : 136,00,00,000 shares – 71.70 %; Total Public holding : 53,66,67,069 shares – 28.29 %; Book Value: Rs. 94.73; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 8.80; Dividend: 110.00 %; P/E: 44.41 times; Ind. P/E: 26.32; EV/EBITDA: 19.88.
Total Debt: NIL; Enterprise Value: Rs. 69,639.41 Cr.

BHARTI INFRATEL LIMITED: The Company was incorporated on November 30, 2006, Bharti Infratel Limited is a provider of telecom tower and related infrastructure. Bharti Infratel is one of the world's largest telecom tower infrastructure providers which deploys, owns and manages telecom towers and communication structures for all wireless operators. The business of Bharti Infratel and Indus is to acquire, build, own and operate telecom tower and related infrastructure. The company come with an IPO in December 14, 2012 issuing 18,89,00,000 equity shares of face value of Rs. 10 each at an issue price of Rs. 220 raising Rs. 4,155.80 cr. The company got listed on December 28, 2012 at Rs. 200 which was also its days high and making a low of Rs. 188.70. The object of the issue was raise money for installation of 4,813 new towers, to arrange funds for up gradation and replacement on the existing towers, to facilitate green initiatives at tower sites, and for the other general corporate purposes and to get the benefits of listing of the equity shares on the stock exchanges. The company has not declared splits in face value of its shares nor have given bonus shares till now. Bharti Infratel and Indus currently provides access to their towers primarily to wireless telecommunications service providers. Bharti Infratel's and Indus's three largest customers are Bharti Airtel (together with Bharti Hexacom), Vodafone India and Idea Cellular. They are the three leading wireless telecommunications service providers in India by wireless revenue. In India, Infratel with Indus has over 88,000+ towers, across 18 states, and 22 Telecom circles, and still growing. Bharti Infratel also has a 42 % stake in Indus Towers which was created as a Joint Venture in 2007 between Bharti Infratel (42 %),  Ortus Infratel Holding (Vodafone 42 %) and IDEA Aditya Birla Telecom (16 %) to hive off the Towers business in 15 telecom circles. BHARTI INFRATEL LTD is locally compared with GTL Infrastructure Ltd, Sujana Towers Ltd, Kalpataru Power Transmission Ltd, BS Limited, KEC International Ltd, Technofab Engineering Ltd, Jyoti Structures Ltd, Premier Energy and Infrastructure Ltd, Shriram EPC Ltd, Om Metal Infraprojects Ltd and globally compared with American Tower of USA, Crown Castle of USA, SBA Communication of USA, United States Cellular Co. of USA, Vertical Bridge of USA, Insite Towers of USA, BNSF Railroad of USA, Time Warner of USA, Phoenix Tower International of USA, Tower Ventures of USA, AT&T Towers of USA.

Investment Rationale:
Bharti Infratel Limited is an India-based company engaged in providing tower and related infrastructure sharing services. The Company has operations in around 22 telecommunication circles. Bharti Infratel has been the industry pioneer in adopting green energy initiatives for its operations. The business of Bharti Infratel and Indus is to acquire, build, own operate tower and related infrastructure. Bharti Infratel received the prestigious Golden Peacock Awards in 2015 for their unique initiatives and significant contribution towards corporate social responsibility. This award recognises and felicitates institutions, corporates and government enterprises for their dedication and high level of quality at work. Bharti Infratel and Indus currently provide access to their towers primarily to wireless telecommunications service providers on a shared basis, under long term contracts with Bharti Airtel, Vodafone India and Idea Cellular, which are the three leading Wireless telecommunications service provider in India by wireless revenue. As on September Dec 31, 2015, Bharti Infratel owned and operated 37,801 towers with 78,949 co-locations in 11 telecommunications Circles while Indus operated 1,17,579 towers with 2,61,159 co-locations in 15 telecommunications Circles. The Company's towers come in two varieties, which include ground-based towers (GBT) and roof-top (RTT) towers. The Indian telecommunications industry is one of the most competitive globally. The focus of Indian operators in the last ten years or so has been to develop an affordable mass market telecommunications service model which allows for service availability across India’s urban and rural areas at affordable prices. A strong focus on optimization of operational expenses through the outsourcing of non-core areas, process innovation, cost to serve alignment and strategic partnerships has also resulted in steady growth of the Telecom Tower Industry in India. Today, all operators prefer to lease towers from tower companies rather than build them for captive use. Infrastructure sharing is effective in optimizing the utilization of available resources and helps to bring down the cost of providing telecommunications services. With the reduction in overall tariffs and restrictions placed by various local regulatory bodies on the installation of telecom towers, infrastructure sharing amongst service providers has become the norm rather than the exception in the Indian telecommunications industry. Tower companies provide the entire range of tower infrastructure that is required by wireless telecommunications service providers to offer mobile telephony services to their subscribers. Tower infrastructure refers to equipment’s such as towers, shelters, power regulation equipment, battery banks, diesel generator sets, air conditioners, fire extinguishers and a security cabin, required at a site where such towers are installed. There are generally two types of towers – the Ground Based Towers (GBTs) and Roof Top Towers (RTTs). India will emerge as a leading player in the virtual world by having 70 Cr internet users from the 4. 7 billion global users, by 2025. With the government’s favourable regulation policies and 4G services hitting the market, rapid growth is expected in the Indian telecommunication sector in the next few years. Also, with developments in this sector, services such as security and surveillance, remote monitoring of ATM machines, home automation, traffic management, retail, logistics and grid energy could eventually facilitate optimisation of resources. Mobile Data is going to be the key pillar of growth for the Indian telecom industry. In addition, the sector is also seeing increased focus on quality of service and a possible utilization of unused spectrum. These trends are positive for tower companies. The Telecom towers have changed the skylines of India’s cities—or even its towns and villages dramatically over the past 10 years, but one of the most striking differences has been the appearance of telecom towers which are 30-70 meter-high structures that mostly crown the tops of the tallest buildings. India’s telecom boom has been well charted. Some 18 years after the mobile phone first appeared on the Indian consumer stage, there are more than 90 Cr mobile phone users in a country of 1.2 billion, which is more numbers than have access to a toilet, according to a statistic often touted by development agencies, and three times the entire population of the US. And the growth of the sector in the last decade has been explosive—in 2002, the number was just 6.68 million. India’s telecom sector is now the second largest in the world, and the fastest growing. Providing network coverage to these hundreds of millions of users are around 500,000 telecom towers, covering more than 90 % of the country’s land area, and unnoticed for the most part by the people who rely on them. Most are made of iron girders painted red and white, with up to six long, bar-shaped antenna pointing skywards, linked with wires to a small shed at the base. A tower connects two callers to each other via switching centres or telephone exchanges, providing urban and rural India with access to mobile communication on a scale which is just second to China. Not only do the towers provide a crucial service, they represent an annual Rs. 1.36 trillion revenue industry, for India’s economy, mobile phones mean money: for every 10 % of the population using basic services (voice and SMS) in the country, national gross domestic product rises by 0.5 %, according to a department of telecommunications (DoT) report, and for Internet and other non-voice communications (data), the same penetration adds 1 %. It’s not surprising then that the telecom tower sector has become an industry in its own right. The government granted towers an “infrastructure” status, putting them on the same footing as roads, ports, hospitals and even electricity generation. This brought encouragement and investment in this sector, which was crucial for the growth of the country. These towers were proving expensive at Rs. 20 lakhs to 40 lakh each and so the idea of tower sharing, encouraged by the government, became popular. Today, a single tower is often shared by multiple tele-coms. The capital deployed is much more efficient and it offers considerable savings in operational expenditure. It’s a win-win for the telcos and the towercos. A telco renting 75 % of its sites from tower companies can reduce its first-year costs by 60 %. 
Building up towers is complex thing. There are two types of tower requirements: green-field i.e. for expanding into a new area and brownfield which is to fill a gap in an existing network. Once the choice has been made, it’s up to the network provider to decide on the location. The telcos, along with their network partners, vendors and towerco, come up with a “network design” for a particular region, based on anything from the amount and quality of spectrum available, to the amount of concrete and height of buildings at the location. The design of a tower must take into account the wind velocity in an area, its proximity to an airport runway and even the curvature of the earth. Each tower must have line of sight with its neighbour, with all of them being arranged in a hexagonal or octagonal pattern. The shorter the tower, the more towers or repeaters are needed to amplify the signal—a particular problem in the Indian context, where operators work with one-tenth of the spectrum that’s available in developed markets and need to serve a much larger user base. Telecom towers are a lot like real estate—everything depends on the location. Land must be acquired at the exact coordinates where the tower is needed. After the telco has decided on a location, the coordinates are given to the towerco, which checks to see if there are any other towers in the area that can be used. To cut costs, towercos rent the land for a tower on a long-term lease. That brings the challenge of dealing with landlords, which can be something of an ordeal. If there are no unforeseen delays, a ground base station takes around 60 days to build and roof top takes around 45 days to build the tower. The biggest challenge, however, is not in the building of a telecom tower, but in its maintenance: the rising cost of fuel and the need to be environmentally responsible, as well as reassuring the public that its structures are not health hazards, is proving a sticking point for the towercos. Trai had directed all towercos to reduce their dependence on diesel and cut carbon emissions by running at least half of all rural towers and 20 % of urban towers on hybrid power by 2015. The problem for the towercos is that due to an unreliable grid, and the remote locations of some towers, more than 60 % of the towers currently depend solely on diesel for power generation. The rise in diesel prices may increase the troubles. The Tower and Infrastructure Providers Association is working on a model where towercos partner with renewable energy service providers to make a viable business case for both, the idea is that the towercos buy energy from a renewable energy provider in rural areas. Few years back Bharti Infratel and Indus announced to replace their diesel generators with batteries. Bharti Infratel already generates as much as 5 million units of solar power every year. While continual growth of the tower sector has led to much scrutiny, their ubiquity and importance to the economy has forced a significant amount of innovation and research that can be tapped by other industries. There is tremendous demand for data in India and the telecom towers can become the focal point for delivery of broadband, at least outside the urban markets, these towers can be connected to the ATMs and even computer kiosks. As with the tower, you get both communication capabilities and power, which are difficult to find in rural areas.  

Outlook and Valuation: 
BHARTI INFRATEL is the largest telecom tower provider company and enjoys a good position in the industry. Recently, Bharti Infratel will be included in Nifty 50 from April 1, 2016, this would bring more interest of institutional and funds managers into the stock. Telecom towers are the integral part of the telecom network infrastructure. In fact they are the most expensive to build and the valuations are heavy. This business has outgrown itself that most of the companies have hived off the tower business as its own entity. Tower business is making explosive growth and exponential investments are involved. It requires a lot of investment to survive and the smaller companies are finding it difficult. There has been massive consolidation in the telecom space with players such as Videocon, Reliance Communications, Systema Shyam, Aircel etc. either scaling down its operations or contemplating merging with each other, like American Tower Corp acquird Xcel Telecom for Rs. 700 Crs, Quippo Telecom acquired Spice Telecom’s tower business and Tata Teleservices WITIL is merged into it. Bharti Infratel did face loss in tenancies owing to such a phenomenon, which also led to 610 exits in the quarter on a consolidated basis. However, the management reiterated that the loss in tenancies is only temporary and weeding out inefficient players leads to higher room available for efficient telcos. Consolidation trends are also visible in the tower space with ATC emerging as a competition to Infratel post the acquisition of Viom. Because of the intense competition each tower needs more than 2 tenants to stay profitable. The current rates are a bit low and hence the sharing and consolidation. The independent mobile tower companies will gain a lot as it is difficult for new companies to build their towers. If the established player too shares their towers then the new telecom players can roll out their networks quickly and the tower companies can increase their revenues. There are 13 major tower companies in India – Indus towers has approx. 80,000 towers; Reliance Infratel has 31,000 towers; Quippo Telecom Infrastructure has 23,000 towers; GTL has 9,000 towers, Essar Telecom has 6,000 towers, American Tower Corp has 4,000 towers, Tower Vision has 3,000 towers, Aster Infrastructure has 1,000 towers, India Telecom Infra Ltd has 1,000 towers, KEC Internatioal has 400 towers, Independent Mobile Infrastructure has 400 towers and Bharti Infratel has 20,000 towers. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), has proposed levying penalties on companies whose calls are getting dropped. Call traffic increases with dropping call rates but the spectrum is limited and companies need to put more and more sites and finding sites is a difficulty. This difficulty in getting sites is also due to the myth and fears about radiation and also due to some prime location where there is government property. Hence in order to avoid call drops tower sharing becomes more important and hence tenancy for these tower companies increases. 
Bharti Infratel has tenancy around 3,000 and as more and more data networks get rolled out, acceleration would happen. Also with the launch of Rel Jio and with the 4G roll out would mean more tenancy for tower companies and more data volumes. Airtel and Idea are expected to post data volume growth of 55 % CAGR in FY16E-18E to 695 and 415 billion MB, respectively. Hence, data revenues may then form about 23 % to 25 % of total revenues from 15 % to 17 % currently. Bharti Infratel Ltd with Airtel, Idea and Vodafone as anchor tenants, who together control about 70 % revenue market share, is certain to benefit from increasing tenancies as data volumes increase. With the call drops issue coming into limelight and the government’s stance to make telcos liable for the breach in quality standards, this would increase the demand for installation of more cell sites, thus benefitting Bharti Infratel Ltd. In addition, installation of a single RAN would also augur well for the company as equipment’s in such a case are smaller, thus freeing up more room for more tenancies. Bharti Infatel Ltd has an annuity led business with a remaining estimated contract life of 5.9 years, which lends certainty of future cash flows to the tune of more than Rs. 47,500 Cr. The company delivered 2.8 % dividend yield by declaring a dividend of Rs. 11 in FY15. Bharti Infratel is expected to pay dividends to the tune of Rs. 11.0 and Rs. 12.1 per share in FY16E and FY17E, respectively. Bharti Infratel is also awaiting regulatory clarity about buyback norms, which could help in optimising the capital structure and, hence, improve return ratios. On financial side Bharti Infratel reported its Q3FY16 numbers with revenues at Rs. 3,093 crore, up 4.9 % YoY. Revenues from rentals grew 9.0 % YoY to Rs. 1,966.7 crore as consolidated tenancies grew from 2.08 to 2.17 over the same period. Energy revenues declined 2.0 % YoY to Rs. 1,126.3 crore as input prices declined. Bharti Infratel’s EBITDA came in atRs. 1,343.0 crore, up 5.5 % YoY. EBITDA margins came in at 43.4 %, up 25 bps YoY, as expenses towards rent & other expenses were up 12.4 % YoY and 37.5 % YoY, respectively. Energy margins remained at 4.8 % as it continued to pass on the energy benefits. PAT came in at Rs. 565.4 crore, due to higher other income, which came in at Rs. 132.9 crore. With robust growth in data volumes, there are an increasingly higher number of tenants on the company’s network. The average tenancy at the Consolidated level has grown from 1.90 x in FY12 to 2.06 x by FY15 leading to 32 % CAGR in FY12-15 in sharing revenues from Rs. 3,099.9 crore in FY12 to Rs. 7,126.1 crore in FY15. Going ahead, it is expected that the average sharing factor at the consolidated level to reach 2.28 x. Bharti Infratel Ltd is a play on the operating benefits that would flow in with increasing tenancies. As a new tenant comes on board, rentals multiply whereas costs do not have a linear increase. Loading revenues are also highly margin accretive and would flow in directly into margins. As tenancies rose from 1.9x to 2.13x in the last few years, margins for the consolidated entity have risen to 43 % in the current quarter from 37 % in FY13. However, as there is currently higher tower requirement in cities, which command a higher rental expense, the growth in EBITDA margins would be slower than expected earlier. With ballooning data growth and tremendous opportunity, going ahead, considering the kind of spectrum purchased by telcos and stable annuity based business model, Bharti Infratel Ltd looks attractive. At the current market price of Rs. 390.85, the stock is trading at a PE of 32.03 x FY16E and 27.14 x FY17E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 12.20 in FY16E and Rs. 14.40 in FY17E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also. 

SOTP Valuation :- 
Business Subsidiary 
Per Share (₹ Rs) 
Enterprise Value of Standalone business
 262.13
Enterprise Value of Indus Towers Rs. 678.91 per share
 BIL holding (42%) in IT Rs. 285.15 per share 
      (Less) Holding discount (15%)
242.37 
 Total Enterprise value
 504.50
Less: Net Debt (Rs. Cr)
 4.22
 TOTAL Value per Share (Rs.)
 500. 28 

KEY FINANCIALSFY15FY16EFY17EFY18E
SALES ( Crs) 11,668.3012,322.5013,553.3014,950.10
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)1,992.402,296.002,727.403,122.50
EPS () 10.5012.2014.4016.50
PE (x)35.0030.4025.6022.30
P/BV (x)4.905.105.405.50
EV/EBITDA (x)14.1013.2011.5010.10
ROE (%) 13.40 16.5020.5024.40
ROCE (%)18.3022.4027.5032.10

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