HINDALCO INDUSTRIES : An industry leader in Aluminium and Copper !!

Scrip Code: 500440 / HINDALCO

CMP:  Rs. 142.90; Buy at Rs.135- 138 levels. 6 month Target – Rs. 200; STOP LOSS – Rs. 124.50; Market Cap: Rs. 27,357.05 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 252.85 / Rs. 128.20; Total Shares: 191,44,19,297 shares; Promoters : 61,37,97,188 shares –32.06 %; Total Public holding : 130,06,22,109 shares – 67.93 %; Book Value: Rs. 155.12; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 11.73; Div: 150 % ; P/E: 12.20 times; Ind. P/E: 14.89; EV/EBITDA: 10.50

Total Debt: Rs. 6359.70 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 33,770.35 cr.

HINDALCO INDUSTRIES: The Company was formed in 1958, and based in India. Hindalco Industries Limited engages in the production & sale of aluminium and copper in India and internationally. The company operates in two segments: Aluminium & Copper. The Aluminium segment engages in the production of alumina, aluminium metal, and aluminium metal products, such as aluminium ingots, billets, wire rods, flat rolled products, foils, and extrusions. The company's aluminium units across India encompass various operations, from bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminium smelting to downstream rolling, extrusions, foils, alloy wheels, and recycling. The Copper segment engages in the smelting of copper and the production of continuous cast copper rods, copper cathodes, sulphuric acid, dap and complexes, gold, and silver. The integrated facility at Renukoot is for an alumina refinery and an aluminum smelter, along with facilities for the production of semi-fabricated products, such as rods, flat rolled products and extrusions. The others segment engages in the production of caustic soda and provides cellular services. The company has a joint venture agreement with Mahanadi Coalfields Limited (MCL, a subsidiary company of Coal India Limited) and Neyveli Lignite Corporation Limited (NLCL) and has formed MNH Shakti Limited for mining of coal. In addition, the company along with its partners, Dubai and Hydromine, is developing an alumina project through a joint venture company, Hydromine Global Minerals GMBH Limited. The Company's subsidiaries include Novelis Belgique SA, Novelis Benelux NV, Albrasilis-Aluminio do Brasil Industria e Comercia Ltda, Novelis do Brasil Ltda, Novelis Cast House Technology Ltd., Novelis Foil France SAS, Novelis PAE SAS, Novelis Deutschland GmbH, Novelis Aluminum Holding Company, Novelis Italia SpA and Novelis (India) Infotech Ltd.

Investment Rationale: In next 4 years company expects Aluminium capacity to increase by three folds.  A Part of the phase 1 at Hirakund has been completed in which the capacity will increase to 161 ktpa. Further, in phase 2 capacities will be increased to 213 ktpa. Capacities at Utkal Alumina & Aditya Aluminium are expected to come on line by 2 half of CY2012 & early by 2013 respectively. It is expected that production & sales volume will show significant growth over FY2011 – 2014. Most of these new capacities will be backed by captive bauxite & coal mines & hence, Hindalco will have a lower cost compared to non – integrated players. NOVELIS will also to expand its capacity by 20 % by FY2014. Novelis capacity at Pinda operations in Brazil is being increased by 220ktpa by 2012 and rest will be through debottlenecking (a 3-4 % increase in capacity every year), Novelis plans to invest up to US$400 million in expansion of its South Korean aluminum rolling & recycling plant by 1mtpa. Given its stable conversion business a steady EBITDA of US$1 billion/annum from Novelis is expected. The Pinda (Brazil) expansion is on process and is expected to complete by December 2012. This will increase the flat rolled product capacity to 600 KTPA. The expansion in South Korea and North America is expected to complete by mid 2013.  The Forest Advisory Committee has rejected the forest diversion proposal for the Mahan Coal block during the quarter. The issue has been recommended to the Group of Ministers (GoM) which has been constituted for giving forest clearance. The issue will be discussed in the next meeting of GoM. The first metal from the Mahan smelter is expected to come on by the end of DEC 2011.  The forest stage II clearance for the Aditya Aluminium has been received; hence the production is expected to start by early 2013. The majority land has been acquired for the Aditya Refinery & is expected to be operational by 2014. The land acquisition has started for the Jharkhand Aluminium.  The timely completion of the projects will be the key focus for Hindalco as the new capacities coming on stream will drive the additional growth in revenue and profitability from FY13E. However, the projects have infrastructure and administrative challenges which can lead to delay in commencement of the new projects.

Outlook and Valuation:

HINDALCO posted a 16.5 % net revenue of Rs. 6031 cr in Q1 FY12 vs. Rs. 5178 cr YoY and EBITDA was up 4.2 % to Rs. 867 cr vs. Rs. 832 cr. PAT was up by 20.5 % YoY to Rs.644 cr; other income at Rs. 178 cr. Novelis posted increase in net revenue to $3,113 million in Q1 FY12 vs. $2,533 million YoY and $2,960 million QoQ due to higher LME prices. Adjusted EBITDA was up 16.3% YoY to $306 million in Q1 FY12 from $263 million in Q1 FY11 (up 9.3% QoQ). Total shipments of the aluminium rolled products were up 3% YoY to 767 KT in Q1 FY12 vs 746 KT in Q1 FY11. Demand from the auto and beverage can segments have remained strong. The total beverage can volume increased 9% YoY (2% QoQ) and accounted for 60% of the total rolled product volumes. However the non-can segment declined 5% YoY and 4% QoQ. In the electronics segment the company is facing intense competition in the foil business from the unorganised players. The segment is not performing well due to weakness majorly in Asia in the flat panel TV segments. Novelis has a capex of $67 million against the full year guidance of $550-600 million. Hindalco is well placed to benefit from its aluminium expansion plans (capacity increasing by nearly 3 folds in the next 4 years); low production cost at its new capacities and steady capacity expansion at Novelis. Due to delay in its Utkal & Aditya projects there could be lows in production and sales volume estimates for FY12 and FY13. Higher other income was due to treasury operation, return of capital from Novelis and dividend from Aditya Birla Minerals.
HINDALCO to hold its AGM on 23rd September 2011; Book closure for dividend of Rs. 1.50/sh or 150 % from 16th September 2011 to 23rd September 2011. The valuation of HINDALCO stock on SOTP (sum‐of‐the‐parts) basis, with the standalone business comes at Rs. 196 / share for FY13E. In my view HINDALCO could report EPS in FY12E & FY13E of Rs. 12.90 / sh and Rs. 18.70 / sh, respectively. I would buy HINDALCO IND LTD for the long term with a price target of Rs. 200 with the strict stop loss of Rs. 124.50  

Business Subsidiary FY13E	Enterprise Value (in Rs.Cr)
HINDALCO (Standalone)	34,935
NOVELIS	23,946
TOTAL EV	58,882
Less : Net Debt (FY13)	23,523
Value of Investments@25% discount	2,224
Value per Share	196.00

KEY FINANCIALS	FY10	FY11	FY12E	FY13E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	60,708	72,078	75,368	83,023
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	4,352	2,879	2,461	3,572
EPS (Rs.)	22.70	15.00	12.90	18.70
PE (x)	6.80	10.30	12.00	8.30
P/BV (x)	1.40	1.00	1.00	0.90
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.70	6.20	7.70	6.60
ROCE (%)	20.90	10.80	15.50	15.00
RONW (%)	14.00	9.90	10.00	10.00

I would buy HINDALCO INDUSTRIES with a price target of Rs. 200 for the 6 month. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 124.50 on your purchase.