ULTRATECH CEMENTS LTD : ACCUMULATE AT EVERY LEVELS !!!

Scrip Code: 532538 / ULTRACEMCO

CMP:  Rs. 1705.70; Accumulate at every levels.
Short Term Target : Rs. 1790; Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 1875; STOP LOSS – Rs. 1569.24; Market Cap: Rs. 46,775.40 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 2069.05 / Rs. 1402.35

Total Shares: 27,42,29,957 shares; Promoters : 16,98,87,299 shares –61.95 %; Total Public holding : 10,43,42,658 shares – 38.05 %; Book Value: Rs. 545.54; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 74.12; Dividend: 90.00 % ; P/E: 23.01 times; Ind. P/E: 14.82; EV/EBITDA: 12.12.

Total Debt: 4,462.68 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 52,981.91 Cr.

ULTRATECH CEMENT LIMITED: ULTRACEMCO was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Mumbai, India. It was formerly known as Ultra Tech Cemco Limited and changed its name to ULTRATECH CEMENT Ltd on October 2004. It’s a subsidiary of Grasim Industries Ltd from Aditya Birla Group. The Company is engaged in the business of cement and cement related products. It manufactures and markets Ordinary Portland Cement, Portland Blast Furnace Slag Cement and Portland Pozzalana Cement. UltraTech Cement Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the manufacture and sale of cement in India and internationally. Its products include ready mix concrete; building products, including waterproofing solutions, polymer modified mortar, lightweight autoclaved aerated concrete blocks, thin layer jointing mortar, and ready mix plaster; and white cement. The Company also manufactures ready mix concrete (RMC). UltraTech Cement is an exporter of cement clinker. The Company has an annual capacity of 23.1 million tons. The Company has 11 integrated plants, one white cement plant, one clinkerisation plant in the United Arab Emirates, 15 grinding units - 11 in India, two in the United Arab Emirates, one in Bahrain and Bangladesh each and five terminals - four in India and one in Sri Lanka. In the 2011, its wholly owned subsidiary, UltraTech Cement Middle East Investments Limited (UCMEIL) acquired ETA Star Cement together with its operations in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Bangladesh and acquired management control. On July 1, 2010, Samruddhi Cement Limited (Samruddhi) amalgamated with the Company.  The Company's subsidiaries include Dakshin Cement Limited, UltraTech Cement Lanka (Pvt.) Ltd. and UltraTech Cement Middle East Investments Limited. In India the company has 11 Integrated Plants, 11 Grinding Units, 5 Bulk Terminals, 4 Jetties. It has only 1 bulk terminal at Sri Lanka. In UAE, company has 2 Grinding Units, 1 Clinker production, 1 star cement head office. UltraTech has 1 Grinding unit each at Bahrain and Bangladesh. The company is compared to Ambuja Cements Ltd, ACC Limited, Shree Cement Ltd, Grasim Ind Ltd and Rain Commodities Limited domestically and Globally compared with Holcim of Germany, Ashaka Cement Plc of UAE, Bamburi Cement of UAE, Oman Cement Company of UAE, Kuwait Cement Company of UAE, Qatar National Cement Company of UAE, Asia Cement Corp of China, Chia Hsin Cement Corp of China, Krosaki Harima Corp of Tokyo, Ssangyong Cement Co of Japan, Taiwan Cement Corp of Taiwan, West China Cement of Hong Kong, Lafarge Cement of Germany, Vulcan materials Co of USA, US Concrete Inc of USA, United States lime & Minerals of USA, Grupo Argos S.A of USA, Cemex Latam Holdings S.A of USA .

Investment Rationale:

UltraTech’s inception can be traced back to the mid-1980s with the establishment of Grasim’s first cement plant at Jawad in Madhya Pradesh. In 2001, with the objective of increasing its reach, Grasim acquired a stake in L&T Cement Ltd. The stake was further increased to a majority stake in 2003 thereby giving Grasim a pan-India presence and an increased market share. In 2004, the demerger of L&T’s cement business was completed and Grasim acquired a controlling stake in L&T Cement Ltd and the name was subsequently changed to UltraTech cement. The cement business of Grasim was demerged and vested in Samruddhi Cement Limited in May 2010, with Samruddhi Cement Limited consequently being amalgamated with UltraTech Cement Limited in July 2010. UltraTech Cement now is a subsidiary of Grasim, a part of the Aditya Birla Group. Post-merger of Grasim’s cement business, it is the largest cement company in India with a total cement capacity of 61.5mt (by 1QFY16) with a pan-India presence. It is the largest exporters of cement and clinker from India. Post-merger, it would be the largest cement company in India and 10th largest in the world. UltraTech has a potential to increase without incurring major capex by increasing utilization and blending, along with locational advantage, gives it the flexibility to either export or sell in the domestic market. Company’s allied businesses of white cement and RMC has lender stability to company’s overall performance. UltraTech’s management expects long-term cement demand to grow around 8 % while in the near term it could be challenging. In Jul’13 it commissioned a 3.3m-ton clinker plant in Karnataka, adding to its earlier commissioning in Mar’13 of similar capacity in Chhattisgarh. In Oct’13 it commissioned a 1.6m-ton grinding unit in Jharsuguda, Orissa, adding to its earlier commissioning of similar capacity in Hotgi, Maharashtra. The balance five associated grinding units will be set up in 4QFY14 and FY15. During 2Q, Ultratech acquired JaiPrakash Associates’ 4.8m-ton unit in Gujarat, lifting its capacity to 59m tons, while ongoing expansions would further that to 70m tons by Mar’15. The transaction was at an Enterprise Value of Rs. 3,800 Cr (US$125 a ton) and is expected to be completed only by 1QFY15 given multiple approvals required. Looking at the current quarterly results which showed high operating leverage, especially post commissioning of new capacities in 1QFY14, could result in volatile earnings. Post weak pricing environment during monsoon, cement prices and demand are expected to pick-up post monsoon. Structural increase in cost base (both capex and opex) would necessitate into higher cement prices. Revival in cement demand would be key catalyst for the stock performance.

Outlook and Valuation:

UltraTech is the 10th largest cement manufacturer in the world making it a significant global player. It has grinding units, jetties, bulk terminals and integrated plants all across the world. UltraTech Cement is the country’s largest cement and clinker exporter, catering to export markets in countries across the Indian Ocean, Africa, Europe and the Middle East. Such diverse presence across the countries has helped UltraTech to leverage economies of scale and enable it to become a name to reckon within the international market. UltraTech reported its Q3, and reported an average realization of Rs. 4,650 a ton down by 2 % yoy. At 10.3m tons, volumes of grey and white cement, clinker, wall putty rose by 1 % yoy and 8 % on qoq. The Grey cement sales were up 0.6 % yoy and 8 % qoq, those of white cement including wall putty were up 10 % yoy. RMC revenue was at Rs. 450 Cr and that of white cement and wall putty it was Rs. 420 CR. UltraTech reported its EBITDA/ton, at Rs. 745, despite its lower-than-expected realisations. The benefit of lower coal prices (net of rupee devaluation) and optimisation of the fuel mix led to an 8 % yoy dip in power & fuel costs a ton. Freight inched up 4 % yoy chiefly due to a hike in diesel prices and a rise in freight charges. Higher other income, lower interest, depreciation and tax rate of 27 % led to better PAT. The outlook on UltraTech continuous to remain challenging, with demand growth in FY14 is likely to be around 5 %, though over the long run it is likely to be over 8 %. The key value drivers could be housing demand and infrastructure spending. UltraTech has commissioned 25 MW thermal power plants in Andra Pradesh. Overall, the company is investing around Rs. 13,700 Cr in 12.7mt capacities, CPP, marketing and logistic infrastructure, modernization/ up-gradation and in RMC business. The clinkerization plant of 3.3MT in Karnataka has been commissioned in 2QFY14, followed up with 1.6mt grinding unit at Orissa. Further, the company’s planned capacity of 2.9mt at Rajasthan plant including 2 split grinding units with capex of Rs. 2,100 Cr would commission by Mar-15, and this would take total capacity in India to 68mt. On Consolidation of Jaypee's Gujarat plant, UltraTech’s current valuations largely factors in for potential recovery in FY15, benefit of which would be diluted due to initial impact of Jaypee's Gujarat plant acquisition by 1HFY15. At the current price of Rs. 1705.70, the stock is trading at a P/E of 24.05 x on FY14E and 18 x on FY15 estimates. UltraTech could report and EPS of Rs. 70.90 for FY14E and Rs. 94.80 for FY15E. Ultratech Cements has good potential for upside and can touch price of Rs. 2092, One can continue to ACCUMULATE the stock and would advise investors to use declines in the stock to buy with a long term view. One can buy ULTRATECH with a target price of Rs. 1875.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 1790.00.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY13	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
SALES (₹ Crs)	20,017.90	20,070.00	23,030.00	26,390.00
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	2,655.40	1,940.00	2,600.00	3,130.00
EPS (₹)	96.80	70.90	94.80	114.10
PE (x)	17.80	24.30	18.10	15.10
P/BV (x)	3.10	2.80	2.50	2.20
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.70	12.70	10.10	8.30
ROE (%)	18.90	12.10	14.50	15.30
ROCE (%)	21.40	14.20	16.80	18.70

I would buy ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD for the short term would be Rs. 1790 and for the Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 1875. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or ₹ 1569.24 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

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