CMP:
Rs. 521.75; Market Cap: Rs. 6,395.44 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 531.40 /
Rs. 130.40
Total
Shares: 12,25,76,878 shares; Promoters : 5,26,93,738 shares – 42.99 %; Total Public holding : 6,98,83,140
shares – 57.01 %; Book Value: Rs. 150.05;
Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 9.58; Dividend: 12.00 % ; P/E: 54.46 times; Ind. P/E: 49.08;
EV/EBITDA: 25.05.
Total
Debt: Rs. 354.79 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 6,719.08 Cr.
ESCORTS LIMITED:
ESCORTS Ltd
was incorporated on December 21, 1944 in Lahore and then after partition it
shifted to Delhi, India. The company was earlier known as Escorts (Agents) Pvt.
Ltd and changed its name to Escorts Ltd in 1959. The company, gave its first
bonus shares in May 1968, in ratio of 1 new for every 5 equity shares held, then
in May 1974 in ratio of 1 new for every 2 shares held, then in May 1977 in
ratio of 3 new for every 5 shares held, in May 1979 in ratio of 3 new for every
5 shares held, in May 1987 in ratio of 3 new for every 5 shares held. Company
has not declared any split in face value of its shares. Escorts Limited is an engineering company, which offers agricultural
tractors and construction equipment. The Company's segments are Agri Machinery,
Auto Ancillary Products, Railway Equipment, Construction Equipments and Others.
It is engaged in the business of manufacturing of engines for agricultural
tractors, earth moving and material handling equipment, round and flat tubes,
heating elements, double acting hydraulic shock absorbers for railways coaches,
center buffer couplers, automobile shock absorbers, telescopic front fork and
Mcpherson struts, brake block, internal combustion engine and various types of
brake used by railways. Its brands of tractors include Escort, Farmtrac and Powertrac. The Jai Kisan
Series of tractors comes in five new categories– ValueMaxx, LoadMaxx, AgMaxx,
InfraMaxx and SuperMaxx. It also manufactures diverse range of equipment like
cranes, loaders, vibratory rollers and forklifts. Escorts, in the over six
decades of inception, has sold over a million tractors and over 16,000
construction and material handling equipment that have rolled out from the
facilities. Escorts
have over 1600 sales and service outlets and in
over 40 countries. ESCORTS Limited is locally compared with Mahindra & Mahindra, Sonalika Tractors,
Eicher Motors, Tractors And Farm Equipment Ltd and globally compared with John Deere Tractors of USA, New Holland
Tractors of Pennsylvania, Kubota Tractors of USA, Mccormick Tractor of USA,
Class Tractors of Germany, Kioto Tractors of South Korea, Belarus Tractors of
Belarus, Allis Chalmers tractors of Europe, Indo Farm Equipment of Poland,
Yanmar of Japan, Millat Tractors Ltd of Pakistan, Maruyama Manufacturing
Company Incorporated of Japan, Thor Industries Inc, Mitubishi Motor Corp of
Japan, Bayer Motoren Werke AG (BMW) of Germany, Piaggio & C. SpA of France,
Porsche Automobil Holding SE of Germany, Renault Societe of France, Volkswagen
Aktiengesellschaft of Germany.
Investment
Rationale:
ESCORTS Ltd is one
of the largest tractor and agri Machinery Company, established in 1944. It is engaged
in the manufacturing of agri-machinery, construction & material handling
equipment, railway equipment and auto components. The ESCORTS GROUP is among India's leading engineering
conglomerates operating in high growth sectors of Agri Machinery, Material
Handling & Construction Equipment, Railway Equipment and Auto Components.
The Group has earned the trust of over five million customers by way of product
and process innovations over six decades of its existence. Escorts has further
unveiled its new 'Jai Kisan Series' of tractors, which focuses on maximizing farmer
productivity by providing differentiated products that are well suited to
agricultural, haulage, infrastructure as well as specialized applications. Escorts
Ltd also manufactures and markets a diverse range of equipment like cranes,
loaders, vibratory rollers and forklifts. Today, the company is the world's
largest Pick 'n' Carry Hydraulic Mobile Crane manufacturer. Faridabad is home
to all its manufacturing facilities, which include Agri-Machinery; Construction
Equipment; Railways; Auto Parts. The Indian Tractor industry has always been a barometer
for the state of rural economy. It is relatively young but now has become the
largest market worldwide (excluding sub 20 HP belt driven tractors used in
China), accounting for one-third of the global production. The other major
tractor markets in the world are China and US. In India till 1960, the demand
for tractor was met entirely through imports. Indigenous manufacturing of
tractors began in 1961 in India and the industry has come a long way since
then. The production output of the Indian Tractor industry has grown from 50,000
units in the early 1980’s to over 6,00,000 units in FY16. Volume grew at a CAGR
of 10.9 % over the past decade, despite seasonal vagaries. Industry volume is
expected to go up by 16 %-18 % on an annual basis in FY17 to nearly 6,96,000 units.
The long term growth fundamentals of industry are strong owing to lowering of
the replacement cycle, expectation of increase in MSP for key crops, scarcity
of labour and ease of credit availability from Government. Also, pace of the
central & state Government’s policy roll out and the final monsoon behaviour
governs the short term industry performance. ICRA continues to be positive over
tractor sales and believes domestic market can achieve a CAGR of 8 % to 9 % in
the long term. The tractor industry sales is classified into four parts
according to the tractor’s power as < 30HP, 31-40 HP, 41-50 HP and >50
HP. The 41-50 HP category holding 45.4 % market share is the most popular
segment in India followed by 31-40 HP category which has 37.8 % market share as
these tractors is suitable for average farmer who owns approximately 5 acres
agricultural land. The > 50 HP category has market share of 6.1 % with 23,692
units. The domestic construction industry is set to become a driving force in
'Make in India' initiative. The Indian Construction Equipment Manufacturers Association
(ICEMA) pegs the Construction Equipment Industry at USD 2.8 billion and expects
it to grow to over USD 5 billion by 2020 on back of infrastructure growth. After
facing a prolonged decline in sales since past 5 years, the industry has now witnessed
a growth of 4 % during 9M FY16 due to commencement of infrastructural projects.
India Union ministry expects that there would be huge opportunities for
equipment manufacturers as at least 10 new express highways will be built soon.
Also, highways worth at least Rs. 5 lakh cr will be built in 2016 and National Highways
strength would be taken to 1.5 lakh km by March 2016 from the present 96,000 km.
The Indian auto-components industry has experienced healthy growth over the
last few years. Some of the factors attributable to this include: a buoyant
end-user market, improved consumer sentiment and return of adequate liquidity
in the financial system. The auto-components industry accounts for almost 7 %
of India’s GDP and employs as many as 2 Cr people, both directly and
indirectly. The industry can be broadly classified into the organised and
unorganised sectors. The organised sector caters to the Original Equipment Manufacturers
(OEMs) and consists of high-value precision instruments while the unorganised
sector comprises low-value products and caters mostly to the after-market
category. Revenues of the Indian auto-components industry grew by 11 % over the
past year to Rs. 2.34 trillion in FY 16. This growth was primarily driven by
healthy recovery for major OEMs in the medium and heavy commercial vehicles
(M&HCV) and Passenger Vehicle (PV) segment. According
to the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA), the
Indian auto-components industry is expected to register a turnover of USD 66 billionn
by FY17 with the likelihood to touch USD 115 billion by FY21 and USD 200 billion
by FY26. In addition, industry exports are projected to reach USD 12 billion by
FY17 and add up to USD 30 billion by FY21, further rising to USD 80 billion by
CY 2026. The sector’s contribution to manufacturing GDP is expected to double
from 5 % in 2015 to 10 % in 2026. The
Indian auto components industry is set to become the third largest in the world
by 2025 and auto-component makers are well positioned to benefit from the
globalisation of the sector. Tractor Industry is all set for a comeback. The monsoon
deficit years in over last 30 years were 1982, 1986, 1987, 2002, 2004 and 2009.
India experienced two years of consistent monsoon deficit in 1986 & 87 followed
by a monsoon surplus year in 1988. Historical data suggests a direct correlation
between monsoon level and tractor sales During 9M FY16, the Tractor Industry
registered sales decline over 20 % y-o-y as the Agriculture sector struggled
with second consecutive year monsoon deficit at 14 %. Deficient monsoon,
worsening water reservoir, lower wholesale prices resulted in lower disposable
income in rural areas impacting rural demand negatively. It is expected that, India
to have adequate monsoon in FY17. Considering historical trend, it is expected
that the sale of tractors to bounce back sharply post satisfactory monsoon and
can register a growth of 10 % in FY17. The launch of new products by ESCORTS
under the Farmtrac and Powertrac brands like XP series, Classic series, Euro
series and Anti-Lift Tractor (ALT) are creating pull-based market demand
amongst the prospective buyers. The new products have stunning looks backed by
enhanced engine power fuel efficiency & reliability. Despite of declining
tractor sales, Escorts 9M FY16 market share stands at 10.1 % as compared to
10.3 % last year. Escorts’
sales are mainly in the 31-40 HP and 41-50 HP categories. Both these segments
have stiff competition and constitute over 93 % of overall tractor sales. In
the 31-40 HP category Escorts, over the last few years, has at best managed to maintain
its market share at 13 %. While in the northern states of UP and Bihar it has
marginally ceded its share, it has made handsome gains in MP. In the 41-50 HP categories,
Escorts performance has been less than satisfactory as it has lost market share
3 % since FY13 in virtually all markets except UP, where it has retained market
share. Taking cognizance of its lack lustre performance, Escorts has embarked
on a three pronged strategy to improve sales growth, boost market share and
improve profitability. With a view to
focus on improving sales and market share, Escorts has carved a separate dealer
network to spearhead growth of the power brands Farmtrac and Powertrac. This
new dealer network will help sharpen focus on these power brands, which
constitute a bulk of the sales. Further, with a view to enhance market share in
the south and west, where it has a small presence, the company is stepping up
dealership additions. The company has 760+ dealerships PAN India with 65 % of
these concentrated in the six states of MP, UP, Bihar, Punjab, Rajasthan and
Haryana. While the company is not looking to beef up the overall dealer strength
there is a conscious effort to retain dealerships in existing markets while
adding some in the incumbent markets. The aim is to bring this ratio to 60:40,
in favour of the established markets Escorts
believes that there is substantial head room for improving profitability and
has targeted RM cost reduction and employee force rationalization as immediate
amelioration areas to boost margins. With a view to lower RM costs the vendor strength
has been reduced to 250 from the erstwhile 400 and there is intent to further
lower the vendor list. Hard bargaining with vendors to reduce costs in lieu of
higher business volumes should help boost margins. It is also undertaking
several value engineering projects to lower RM costs. Currently, RM costs have
reduced by 2.00 % to 69.1 % and eventually the aspiration is to bring it to 67 %.
Escorts (ESC) improved its market share by 0.60 % in 9MFY17, driven by key
strategic initiatives planned and executed in the last 3‐4 years. It would continue to focus on increasing its share through
deeper penetration and creating a parallel channel of Farmtrac and Powertrac in
its strong markets. Reduction in employee cost would be a key lever to expand
margins. Also, the management believes there is further room for reduction in raw
material cost. Construction equipment business is on a strong footing and this
should aid growth as well as margin expansion. Escorts’ tractor volumes saw
robust growth of 23 % in FY17 YTD driven by normal monsoon and key strategic initiatives.
During this period, its market share improved from 9.5 % to 10.1 %. Escorts would
continue to focus on market share gain through tractor seeding program in
untapped regions in its strong markets and increasing the pace of parallel
channel creation for Farmtrac and Powertrac. To improve its visibility, Escorts
has also piloted a rental model through e‐up with the government, which provides capital subsidy for farm
equipment. The company is currently testing the model and would gradually scale
up if it finds the model right. Exports would be a key area of focus in FY18; Escorts
has new higher HP models that meet regulatory requirements. The key regions it
intends to tap are Africa, Middle East and US. The management
has highlighted that 450 blue collar employees are due for retirement in the
next three years. It also plans to offer VRS to a similar number of employees.
Since the cost of blue collar employees is high, reduction of 900 employees
over the next three years would result in significant savings on employee cost.
Escorts has also entered into a long‐term
settlement with the labour union, wherein productivity improvement would result
in employee costs remaining constant in absolute terms, even if VRS doesn’t go
through. The expected 2.00 % saving in employee costs would drive EBITDA margin
higher. In the construction equipment business, Escorts is confident of
achieving 20 % to 25 % growth. At this pace of growth, the company expects to
achieve 5 % to 6 % EBITDA margin in the long run. In the railways business, it
has an order book of Rs. 1.3 billion executable over 5‐6 months. The three new products bogey and axle‐mounted disc brakes, and automated door systems it has
launched offer a market opportunity of Rs. 5 billion. Escorts are also open to an
inorganic acquisition in the railways business. In last Union Budget, Government had proposed and presented its
vision to double farmers’ income by 2022 and to support its vision, the
Government has undertaken significant measures. Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima
Yojana to stabilize farmers income and has replaced the NAIS, which provides
crop insurance to farmers on liberal terms. This should go a long way in
raising farmers’ income security. Rs 5,500 crore has been
allocated under the PMFBY. This scheme aims at supporting sustainable
production in the agriculture sector. Escorts is
rightly placed to be the dependable outsourcing partner of world's leading
engineering corporations looking at outsourcing manufacture of engines, transmissions,
gears, hydraulics, implements and attachments to tractors, and shock absorbers
for heavy trailers. In today's Global Market Place, Escorts is fast on
the path of an internal transformation, which will help it to be a key driver
of manufacturing excellence in the global arena. For this they are going beyond
just adhering to prevailing norms, & are setting their own standards and
relentlessly pursuing them to achieve our desired benchmarks of excellence.
Escorts surely a best bet looking at the factors and is a best stock in the
sector.
Outlook and
Valuation:
ESCORTS LTD. is one of the largest
players in the tractor and agri machinery business with humble beginning in 1944. The Company operates
in the sectors of agri-machinery, construction & material handling
equipment, railway equipment and auto components. Its products include Agri
Machinery, Construction Equipment, Auto Products such as shock absorbers,
struts and telescopic front, and Railway Products. The Company offers more than
45 variants of tractors from 25 to 80 HP. Escorts Ltd, for Agri Machinery they have Four
plants: Farmtrac, Powertrac, Component, Crankshaft & Hydraulic covering
manufacturing area of 1,34,000 sq.m., with production capacity of 100,000
tractors p.a. It also has Poland plant, a 100 % subsidiary, has an installed
manufacturing capacity of 2,500 tractors p.a Escorts Agri Machinery offers a comprehensive
range of tractors with more than 45 Variants starting from 25 to 80 HP. Escorts
Agri Machinery segment has positioned itself as a change leader in the
agriculture sector having rolled out over 1 million tractors, ranging from
hi-capacity engines to modern rugged transmissions and multi-utility taking
capabilities. Escorts construction Equipment: Escorts Construction
Equipment is a leading materials handling and construction equipment manufacturer.
It manufactures and markets a diverse range of equipment like cranes, loaders, vibratory
rollers and forklifts. Escorts, is the world largest Pick’n’ Carry Hydraulic
Mobile Crane manufacturer. State-of-the-art manufacturing and assembly facility
sprawling 250,000 sq.ft. of space, Capacity of 14,000 units p.a. Escorts Railway Products: Escorts Ltd has played a major role in
the modernization of Indian Railways with over 40 years of rich experience in manufacturing
of critical railway systems. The manufacturing plant spread across an area of over
12,500 sq. meters, Houses superior production and testing facilities, inclusive
of a research and development centre; ISO 9001:2008. Product offerings include
brakes, couplers, shock absorbs, rail festering systems, composite brake blocks
and vulcanized rubber parts. Escorts Auto Products (EAP): Pioneered the manufacturing of
automotive shock absorbers in India and it continues to be one of the leading
manufacturers of auto suspension products. Plant spread across in an area of
2,25,000 sq.ft., Capacity to produce 3.2 million shock absorbers & struts and
0.3 million front forks. It also trades in oils and lubricants, implements, trailers,
tractors, compressor accessories and spares, construction and aero business. It
offers Euro Series under Powertrac; Classic Series in 41-50 HP under Farmtrac
brand, and FT 6055 Xtra Torque Tractor with approximately 20 speed transmission. Engineering And Maintainace contributes the largest
chuck to the company’s top-line at 79 % of total sales. Though it is not their
most profitable segment it is the highest contributor to the company’s profit
at 7.6 % at operating level. ECE is the company’s second biggest top-line
contributor at 13 % but currently suffers loss at operating level. A much smaller
segment, Railway Equipment’s at 6 % of top-line contribution is the company’s
second most profitable business at 13 % at operating level. Over the period FY12 -15, policy paralysis had led to a severe logjam,
bringing infrastructure development to a screeching halt. As a result, Escorts’
construction equipment segment revenues de-grew at a 3-year CAGR of 19 % during
FY12-FY16 and there were losses at the EBIT level. With the monsoon progressing
well and government spending on infrastructure projects at an all-time high,
the fortunes of this segment have started to look up. This should lead to a
recovery in the demand for construction equipment. Escorts’ railway segment
revenues have de-grown at a 3 year CAGR of 8 % Rs. 205 crore in FY16. With the
Railways being a thrust area for the government which is expected to spend Rs 1
lakh crore per annum over the next five years and 100 % allowance in FDI, this segment
opens a huge opportunity for Escorts as it is one of the major vendors to the Railways.
Escorts supplies manufactured products like brakes, couplers and shockers which
has combined market size of Rs. 500 crore to the Railways. It has introduced
two new products – Bogey Mounted Brake System (completed testing) and Axle
Mounted Brake System (ongoing testing), which are in advanced stages of
deployment and are Rs. 300 crore opportunity. Escorts’ has a presence only in
three categories, viz., Earthmoving-Backhoe Loaders, Material Handling - Pick
and Carry cranes and Road Building-Compactors. And it is expected that all the
segments to do well in the short to medium term. Escorts by virtue of being a
dominant player in all these segments is expected to be one of the biggest
beneficiaries. The ECE segment expected to
breakeven by FY17. The ECE volumes stood at 698 units in 3Q FY16. ECE is
required to sell 750 units in a quarter in order to achieve its break-even
point, The team is confident of breaking even from FY17 onwards due to
initiatives like realizing better Average Selling Price (ASP), inclination
towards higher contributing model and cost reduction. ERP new products to
further enhance profitability Escorts has over 40 years of rich experience in manufacturing
of critical railway systems (Safety and comfort) and has played a major role in
the modernization of Indian Railways. ERP’s existing products contributes about
Rs. 1,837 mn towards Escorts revenue in FY15. ERP team received a development
order for Axel Mounted Disc Brakes in 2Q FY16 and company expects to execute
the order by end of FY16. The new segment has a market potential of Rs. 3 billion
with only one competitor. Escorts scouting for strategic partner to divest
& reducing losses in EAP segment EAP pioneered the manufacturing of
automotive shock absorbers in India. Its key customers are BEML, Tata Motors,
TVS, Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, Piaggio, Polaris and Yamaha. Escorts
Management is actively scouting for strategic partner to divest EAP segment. The
Company is looking forward to reduce its losses in EAP segment through cost saving
from VRS and better sales portfolio rationalization in FY17. These measures are
expected to yield positive results in FY17. Escorts
exhibited strong volume growth of 29.5 % YoY with 4,247 units in February. This
growth comes on the back of 16.3 % YoY growth in January & 27.4 % YoY growth
in Q3FY17. On a YTD basis April-February, Escorts’ domestic tractor volumes
have grown at 23 % YoY to 51,581 units against industry growth of 18 % YoY. The
management expects to end FY17 at a growth rate of 23 % YoY. In Q1FY8E, the
company expects growth to taper down to 10-15 % due to base effect. Pre-demonetisation,
the industry was growing a high rate of 20 % YoY. In November, the domestic tractor
industry witnessed de-growth of 13 % YoY & single digit growth of 8 % YoY
in December. In the same period, Escorts outperformed the industry with flat
performance in November & 12 % YoY growth in December. As per the
management, the outperformance is attributable to poor winter rains in southern
India, where Escorts does not have a strong presence. After a year of strong
20.2 % growth in FY14, domestic tractor sales fell 13 % YoY in FY15 due to poor
Kharif harvest & lower Rabi sowing due to dipping reservoir levels. A
second consecutive year of deficient rainfall which was 14 % lower than normal impacted
agriculture output and led to a decline of the tractor industry by 11 % in
2015-16. In the same period of FY14-16, Escort’s volumes declined at 28 % CAGR.
The primary reasons for Escort’s underperformance were gaps in the product
portfolio and lack of focus on growing markets like the south & west region
that together contribute 47 % of the total market. However, in YTD FY17,
Escort’s volumes have outpaced industry volumes, growing 23 % YoY vs. industry growth
of 18 %, with market share gain of 0.30 %. This strong growth is on the back of
new products launched like 10 new models launched in the last two years, increased
focus on opportunity markets of south & west region and separate Powertrac
which is its economy brand & Farmtrac brand which is its premium brand in
its strong northern market. The management expects industry growth of 18-20 %
in FY17E & 6-8 % in FY18E.And can have a tractor volume CAGR OF 10 % in
FY17-19E. To improve
its visibility, Escorts has also piloted a rental model through tie‐up with the government, which provides capital subsidy for farm
equipment. The company is currently testing the model and would gradually scale
up if it finds the model right. Exports would be a key area of focus in FY18;
ESC has new higher HP models that meet regulatory requirements. The key regions
it intends to tap are Africa, Middle East and US. The management believes there
is further room of 1.00 % reduction in raw material cost through value
engineering. Going ahead in FY18, the monsoon is likely to play a critical
role. Yet, as sowing in most regions is healthy, the season would begin on a
strong note. Margin expansion through employee cost savings would be a strong
lever for earnings growth. EBITDA margin is likely to expand from 4.1 % in FY16
to 10.3 % in FY19 as a result of cost rationalizing. Escorts are taking initiatives
to lower raw material costs to 68 % of sales in FY19 from 71 % in FY15 through
vendor rationalizing and value engineering. It targets to reduce employee cost
to 8.9 % of sales through VRS in the next three years from 12.3 % of sales in
FY16. It is expected that the revenue/PAT CAGR of 12 %/40 %, driven by EBITDA
margin expansion of 2.80 % to 10.3 % over FY17‐19. At the current market price of Rs. 521.75, the stock is trading at a PE of 23.93 x FY17E and 15.90 x FY18E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 21.80 in FY17E and Rs. 32.80 in FY18E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.
| KEY FINANCIALS | FY16 | FY17E | FY18E | FY19E |
|---|
| SALES (₹ Crs) | 3,537.60 | 4,118.00 | 4,680.20 | 5,170.60 |
| NET PROFIT (₹ Cr) | 77.10 | 138.20 | 269.10 | 349.30 |
| EPS (₹) | 11.10 | 21.80 | 32.80 | 42.60 |
| PE (x) | 44.80 | 22.90 | 15.20 | 11.70 |
| P/BV (x) | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.20 | 1.90 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 31.40 | 14.50 | 9.90 | 7.50 |
| ROE (%) | 6.10 | 11.40 | 15.60 | 17.70 |
| ROCE (%) | 7.40 | 10.40 | 15.10 | 17.70 |
As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - 
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*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold ESCORTS LTD in my any of the portfolios.
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