BERGER PAINTS INDIA LTD : A NEW DEFENSIVE !!!

Scrip Code: 509480 / BERGEPAINT

CMP:  Rs. 193.05; Buy at Rs. 185 - Rs. 195 levels.
Medium to Long Term Target: Rs. 215; STOP LOSS – Rs. 177.60; Market Cap: Rs. 6,685.12 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 212.65 / Rs. 109.50.

Total Shares: 34,62,89,948 shares; Promoters : 25,97,17,461 shares –75.00 %; Total Public holding : 8,65,72,487 shares –25.00 %; Book Value: Rs. 24.39; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 6.00; Dividend: 70.00 %; P/E: 32.17 times; Ind. P/E: 38.96; EV/EBITDA: 11.92.

Total Debt: 169.80 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 6,670.92 Cr.

BERGER PAINTS INDIA LTD: The Company was founded in 1760 but started its business in Kolkata, India on 17th December 1923. The company was then known as Hadfiled's (India) Ltd. The company has undergone many change of hands – In the year 1947, it was acquired by British Paints (Holdings) UK, which renamed the company as British Paints (India). This UK Company was then acquired by Celanese Corporation, which later sold the Indian company to Berger, Jenson Nicholson Ltd in 1969. In 1983, the company was renamed as Berger Paints India and it started using the trade name of Berger. Berger Paints engages in the manufacture and sale of various decorative and industrial paints in India and internationally. The company’s products include interior emulsions, designer finishes, dis-tempers, exterior emulsion, primer, texture finishes, enamels, cement mix, crack fill paste. The company also offers general industrial and automotive coatings, such as pre-treatment chemicals, water base primers, polyester topcoats, polyester-metallic/pearl base-coats, thermo-setting acrylic base-coats, thermo-setting acrylic clear coats, alkyd-amino topcoats, poly-urethane paints, quick drying paints, polyester surfacers, epoxy surfacers, alkyd amino HLPS, and heat resisting paints and powder and protective coatings. It serves home owners, professionals, and industrial users through a network of dealers. It has a wide variety of product portfolio including interior and exterior wall coatings as well as metal and wood paints. It currently operates 7 manufacturing facilities in India and more than 85 depots along with 4 facilities overseas and maintain a workforce of more than 2500 employees. It has a distribution network spanning to 15000 plus dealers. It has strong and well established brands like Berger Silk, Berger Rangoli, Berger Illusions, Berger Weather Coat, Jadoo Enamel, etc. It also provides color consultancy services. Berger Paints has six subsidiaries and two JVs located across geographies including Cyprus, Russia, Poland and Nepal. Berger Paints subsidiary includes Beepee Coatings Private Limited, Berger Jenson & Nicholson (Nepal) Pvt Ltd, Berger Paints (Cyprus) Ltd, and Berger Paints Overseas ltd. The company is locally compared with Asian Paints Ltd, Bombay Paints Ltd, Brushman (India) Ltd, Kansai Nerolac Paints Limited, Akzo Nobel India Limited, Jenson and Nicholson India Ltd, Jyoti Resins and Adhesive Ltd, Hardcastle & Waud Mfg.co.Ltd, Sarika Paints Ltd, Shalimar Paints Ltd and globally with Noroo Holdings Company Limited, Fujikura Kasei Co Ltd of Japan.

Investment Rationale:

Berger Paints India Ltd (BPIL) is one of the India’s foremost paint companies, currently ranked as 2nd largest on the basis of consolidated sales turnover in Indian paint industry. It enjoys about 19 % share of the over Rs. 21,000 Cr of the Indian paint industry wherein the organized sector accounts for 70 % while the remaining is with the unorganized sector comprising of around 2,000 small scale paint units. The Indian Paints Industry is estimated to be at US$ 380 Cr and is growing at 1.8-2 x the GDP growth since the last few years. This industry is dominated by top 4 players commanding more than 90 % share of the organized market. The per capita consumption of paints in India remains very low at 1.5 kgs as against 6.4 kgs in China & 15 kgs in USA & 10-13 Kgs of global average. This industry is categorized in two segments –Decorative paints -which contributes 70% and balance 30% belongs to Industrial paints -Comprising automotive and industrial, protective, powder, coil and marine coatings. A decorative paint constitutes 80% of Berger Paints sales and enjoys strong brand equity in the eastern regions. Taking into account the rising consumer demand and diversified needs, the paint companies are coming out with new variants of paints and considering Berger Paints's market share of about 19% surely the company will be benefited from the rising demand. The paint companies have now emphasized more on brand endorsement and have roped in top celebrities for their brand endorsements. The Indian paint industry witnessed positive growth in 2011-12. The decorative paints market is throwing up new opportunities for premium products which are technically superior. Higher purchasing power, backed by higher income levels, increased urbanization, rising construction activity in the housing segment and easy availability of housing loans are boosting growth in this segment. This is helped by the spread of audio-visual media, internet and communication facilities. Better living conditions and aesthetics now fetch a definite value. Company feels that there is still much potential in this sector. Growing awareness among retail consumers with respect to brand and quality is attracting  consumers to move towards the organized sector. There is marked tilt towards Eco-friendly products which are not harmful to human beings as well as the environment.

Outlook and Valuation:

Berger Paints India's promoters (Citland Commercial Credits Ltd, Wang Investment and Finance Pvt Ltd, Bigg Investments and Finance Pvt ltd, Vinu Dhingra & Kuldip Singh Dhingra) who collectively holds 75.54% in company, and in order to meet the minimum public shareholding norm of 25% had sold 18,72,222 shares of Rs.2 or 0.54% via Offer For Sale at an floor price of Rs. 185/share. UK Paints India, Berger Paints India's largest stakeholder has increased its stake by buying 3.5 lakh shares a 0.10% stake in the company in December 2012, the stake was brought from another promoter entity Meeta Dhingra for Rs. 151/sh amounting to Rs. 5.28 Cr. UK Paint held 45.56% as on the end of September quarter. Dhingra held 83.15 Lakh or 2.40% shares of Berger Paints as of September quarter. Berger Paints India Ltd.’s Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 20 % and 22 % over the period of 2011 to 2014E respectively looking into stronger demand and introducing of new products. The Company has planned to set up manufacturing facility for Auto GI  for about 18,000 KL per annum, Protective Coatings - 12,000 KL per annum and Solvent Base Decorative Paints - 24,000 KL per annum at Jejuri near Pune. The Plant layout has been finalized. The Plant is likely to be commissioned in 2013. Berger plans to double its production capacity to 5,00,000 kilo liter per annum from 2,50,000 kl by 2013. Berger Paints is looking to expand its distribution channel from the existing 15,000 dealers to 19,000 in the next four years. Berger Paints India is India's first paint maker to foray into construction chemicals and is looking to generate a turnover of over Rs. 25 Cr from this segment in 2012-13. The management has considered adding 5000 tonnes of capacity each to its plants in West Bengal (Hooghly) and Goa (North Goa) at a cost of around Rs. 30 Cr for each plant. The capacity expansion at the Hindupur plant will cost around Rs. 80 Cr. The company is setting up a joint venture company, BNB Coatings India, with Nippon Bee Chemicals Co. of Japan to manufacture automobile plastic substrate coatings. It has technical license agreements with DuPont Performance Coatings (automotive coatings), Nippon Paint Co.(automotive coatings), Orica Australia (protective coatings), Tigerwerk Lack-u.Farbenfabrik GmbH & Co. KG, Austria (specialized powder coatings) and Nippon Bee Chemical Co. (coating on bumpers and other plastic parts). With the revival of the construction boom post recession also the resurgence of the automotive and consumer durable industries, the Indian paint industry is heading for an exciting phase of growth and profitability. Demand in case of industrial segment is also expected to increase going forward. Increased industrial paint demand, especially powder coatings and high performance coatings will also propel top line growth of paint majors in the medium term. A better focus on supply chain or distribution mechanism backed by aggressive promotion will drive the fortunes of the Indian paint industry like never before over the years to come. At the current market price of Rs. 193.05, the stock tradings at 29.29 x FY13E EPS of Rs. 6.59/share and 23.34 x FY14E EPS of Rs. 8.27/share. It is believed that going forward this discount should narrow due to the Gaining considerable size with a revenue CAGR and with the Product mix shifting towards higher growth & Increasing presence across India with rising penetration in the south makes this stock attractive to ACCUMULATE with a target price of Rs 215/share.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12	FY13E	FY14E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	2,332.70	2,944.20	3,411.70	3,955.90
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	150.00	185.80	228.30	286.40
EPS (Rs.)	4.33	5.37	6.59	8.27
PE (x)	40.61	32.79	26.70	21.28
P/BV (x)	7.20	6.10	5.10	4.30
EV/EBITDA (x)	25.80	21.06	16.62	13.31
ROE (%)	18.70	20.25	21.66	22.63
ROCE (%)	17.96	19.17	21.10	23.50

I would buy BERGER PAINTS (I) LTD with a price target of Rs. 215 for Medium to Long term target. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 177.60 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold BERGER PAINTS in my investment portfolio.

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

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BERGER PAINTS : ACCUMULATE AT EVERY DIP!!!

Scrip Code: 509480 / BERGEPAINT

CMP:  Rs. 136.00; Buy at Rs. 130 - Rs. 135 levels.
Medium to Long Term Target: Rs. 152; STOP LOSS – Rs. 120.00; Market Cap: Rs. 4,707.83 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 153.35 / Rs. 78.25.

Total Shares: 34,61,64,514 shares; Promoters : 26,15,89,683 shares –75.59 %; Total Public holding : 8,45,74,831 shares –24.41. %; Book Value: Rs. 24.40; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 5.33; Div: 70 % ; P/E: 25.51 times; Ind P/E: 31.28; EV/EBITDA: 18.88.

Total Debt: Rs. 169.80 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 4877.63 cr.

BERGER PAINTS INDIA LTD: The Company was founded in 1760 but started its business in Kolkata, India in the year 1923. The company has undergone many change of hands – In the year 1947, it was acquired by British Paints (Holdings) UK, which renamed the company as British Paints (India). This UK Company was then acquired by Celanese Corporation, which later sold the Indian company to Berger, Jenson Nicholson Ltd in 1969. In 1983, the company was renamed as Berger Paints India and it started using the trade name of Berger. Berger Paints engages in the manufacture and sale of various decorative and industrial paints in India and internationally. The company’s products include interior emulsions, designer finishes, distempers, exterior emulsion, primer, texture finishes, enamals, cement mix, crack fill paste. The company also offers general industrial and automotive coatings, such as pretreatment chemicals, water base primers, polyester topcoats, polyestermetallic/pearl basecoats, thermosetting acrylic basecoats, thermosetting acrylic clear coats, alkyd-amino topcoats, poly-urethane paints, quick drying paints, polyester surfacers, epoxy surfacers, alkyd amino HLPS, and heat resisting paints and powder and protective coatings. It serves home owners, professionals, and industrial users through a network of dealers. It has a wide variety of product portfolio including interior and exterior wall coatings as well as metal and wood paints. It has strong and well established brands like Berger Silk, Berger Rangoli, Berger Illusions, Berger Weather Coat, Jadoo Enamel, etc. It also provides color consultancy services. Berger Paints has six subsidiaries and two JVs located across geographies including Cyprus, Russia, Poland and Nepal. The company is compared with Kansai Nerolac Paints Limited, Akzo Nobel India Limited and Noroo Holdings Company Limited.

Investment Rationale:

Berger Paints India Ltd. (BPIL) is one of the India’s foremost paint companies, currently ranked as 2nd largest on the basis of consolidated sales turnover in Indian paint industry. It enjoys about 19 % share of the over Rs. 21,000 crore of the Indian paint industry wherein the organized sector accounts for 70 % while the remaining is with the unorganized sector comprising of around 2,000 small scale paint units. The Indian Paints Industry is estimated at US$ 380 Cr and is growing at 1.8-2x GDP growth since the last few years. This industry is dominated by top 4 players commanding more than 90 % share of the organized market. The per capita consumption of paints in India remains very low at 1.5 kgs as against 15-20 kgs in developed countries. This industry is categorized in two segments – decorative paints, which contributes 70 % and the balance 30 % belongs to industrial paints - comprising automotive and industrial, protective, powder, coil and marine coatings. A decorative paint constitutes 80 % of BERGER PAINTS sales and enjoys strong brand equity in the eastern regions. CMIE a leading business & economic database research company expects the production in paint industry to grow by 13.3 % in 2012-13. The production is further expected to increase by 15 % in 2013-14 to around 19.6 lakh tonnes. The sales volumes are expected to grow by 14-15 % per annum during 2012-14 periods and are likely to cross 20 lakh tonnes by March 2014. Taking into account the rising consumer demand and diversified needs, the paint companies are coming out with new variants of paints and taking BERGER PAINTS market share of about 19 % surely the company will be benefited from the rising demand.

The paint companies are now emphasizing more on brand endorsement and so are looking to rope in top celebrities for their brand endorsements. Berger Paints is also looking to rope in Top Bollywood actresses for the endorsement of its Silk range of emulsion and plans to spend Rs. 35 Cr on an advertisement campaign, the company prefers Bollywood actress Kareena Kapoor or Katrina Kaif for the endorsement of their products probably any one of them could be the new Brand Ambassador for the Berger Brands. These initiatives are expected to increase the demand from refurbishment. Berger Paints have been focusing on raising the share of water-based paints in its total product portfolio and has also filled the product gap that existed with Asian Paints, through the introduction of premium products in the water-based paints. This segment will drive higher revenue growth and will also expand operating margins in the future. The shift towards water-based paint will bring high growth & also it’s a higher margin product segment compared to solvent-based paints.

Outlook & Valuation:

Berger Paints is looking for acquisition both within and outside country, in the overseas market the company is looking for acquisition of technology however in the domestic market any acquisition move should be driven by the possibility of increasing the market share which is currently at 19 %.  Berger has entered Poland through an acquisition which boosted its energy efficient & protective external insulation finishing system, Berger is already present in Russia and Nepal through its subsidiaries. Berger has outgrown its peers in Q1FY13 on the back of expanding distribution reach and higher growth in premium segment. Berger's India standalone business registered sales growth of 17 % to Rs. 751.6 Cr in Q1FY13 on the back of estimated 7-8 % volume growth. The volume growth was impressive considering almost flattish volume growth in peers thereby indicating market share gaining in this quarter. This was achieved on the back of expansion in distribution reach and selling through new trade channels. Going ahead, it is expected that the company will maintain its current growth momentum, but poor monsoon could act as a spoilsport. However with the price hike to the tune of 5 % in the decorative paint business in last quarter and with lower inventory supported EBIDTA expansion with consolidated EBIDTA margins at 9.50 % up by 60bps YoY. Company has taken some price hikes in industrial paints segment and would take further hikes to maintain the margins. Company also witnessed significant fall in import price of TiO2 and expects to see its benefit in coming quarters. Other crude derivatives, however, continue to rise owing to INR depreciation. It is expected that the EBIDTA margin will improve going forward on the back of softening in Raw Material cost and stabilization in exchange rate. Combined subsidiaries sales grew by 4 % in Q1FY13, much slower than the avg. growth of 25 % in last four quarters due to the poor performance in Nepal subsidiary because of the political upheaval. Bolix which is the largest subsidiary (5 % of consolidated sales) reported flattish growth due to uncertain economic condition in Europe. Apart from 80,000 MT/annum decorative paints capacity at Hindupur during 1st phase of expansion, company is also building its 40,000MT capacity for textured coatings developed by its subsidiary Bolix which it plans to introduce in the current year. Company expects sales of Rs. 15 – 20 Cr from its construction chemical business in FY13 and expects it to register a CAGR of 40 % over FY13-15. At the current market price of Rs. 136, the stock is trading at 21.25 x FY13E EPS of Rs 6.40/share and 18.37 x FY14E EPS of Rs 7.40/share & at 16.0 x FY13E EPS, it is trading at 38 % discount to the market leader, Asian Paints. Historically, the company has traded at an average discount of 40 % to Asian Paints’ one-year forward mean P/E ratio. It is believed that going forward this discount should narrow due to the Gaining considerable size with a revenue CAGR and with the Product mix shifting towards higher growth & Increasing presence across India with rising penetration in the south makes this stock attractive to ACCUMULATE with a target price of Rs 152/share.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12	FY13E	FY14E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	2,328.10	2,936.10	3,476.00	3,980.50
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	150.10	180.10	221.90	255.60
EPS (Rs.)	4.30	5.20	6.40	7.40
PE (x)	33.10	27.60	22.40	19.40
P/BV (x)	7.20	6.10	5.10	4.30
EV/EBITDA (x)	21.50	17.40	14.40	12.10
ROE (%)	23.40	24.00	24.90	24.20
ROCE (%)	25.20	26.10	27.30	27.50

I would buy BERGER PAINTS (I) LTD with a price target of Rs. 152 for Medium to Long term target. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 120.00 on every purchase.

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold BERGER PAINTS in my investment portfolio.

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

BERGER PAINTS : Paint your Imagination !!!

Scrip Code: 509480 / BERGEPAINT

CMP:  Rs. 101.45; Buy at Rs. 95 - 100 levels.
Short term Target: Rs. 105, 6 month Target – Rs. 115; STOP LOSS – Rs. 87.40; Market Cap: Rs. 3,510.90 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 123 / Rs. 73.50.

Total Shares: 34,60,72,464 shares; Promoters : 26,15,89,683 shares –75.59 %; Total Public holding : 8,44,82,781 shares –24.41. %; Book Value: Rs. 22.35; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 4.29; Div: 55 % ; P/E: 23.55 times; Ind P/E: 33.04; EV/EBITDA: 17.90.

Total Debt: Rs. 24.57 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 3,590.50 cr.

BERGER PAINTS INDIA LTD was founded in 1760 but started its business in Kolkata, India in the year 1923. The company has undergone many change of hands - In 1947, it was acquired by British Paints (Holdings) UK, which renamed the company as British Paints (India). The UK Company was then acquired by Celanese Corporation, which later sold the Indian company to Berger, Jenson Nicholson Ltd in 1969. In 1983, the company was renamed as Berger Paints India and it started using the trade name of Berger. Berger Paints engages in the manufacture and sale of various decorative and industrial paints in India and internationally. The company’s products include synthetic enamels, acrylic emulsions, metal and wood paints, interior wall coatings, and exterior wall coatings. It has a wide variety of product portfolio including interior and exterior wall coatings as well as metal and wood paints. It has strong and well established brands like Berger Silk, Berger Rangoli, Berger Illusions, Berger Weather Coat, Jadoo Enamel, etc. It also provides color consultancy services. The company offers its products primarily for home owners, professionals, and industrial users. Berger Paints has six subsidiaries and two JVs located across geographies including Cyprus, Russia, Poland and Nepal.

Investment Rationale:

The Indian Paints Industry is estimated at US$ 380 Cr and is growing at 1.8-2x GDP growth since the last few years. This industry is dominated by top 4 players commanding more than 90 % share of the organized market. The per capita consumption of paints in India remains very low at 1.5 kgs, against 15-20 kgs in developed countries. This industry is categorized in two segments – decorative paints, which contributes 70 % and industrial paints that contributes 30 % to the total industry size. Berger Paints is the second largest player in the decorative paints market with a 17 % market share. Decorative paints constitute 80 % of its sales and enjoy strong brand equity in the eastern regions. It has a pan India distribution network of 14,000 dealers and 7,700 tinting machines. Further, the company also has a strong foothold in the protective coatings market, which contributes nearly 10 % to its total sales. Also the company has adopted aggressive expansion plan to increase its production capacity by 52 %, through the addition of 160,000 MT at a cost of Rs. 140.00 Cr scalable to 320,000 MT in Andhra Pradesh over the next 2 years. Berger Paints is focusing on raising the share of water-based paints in its total product portfolio and has also filled the product gap that existed with Asian Paints, through the introduction of premium products in the water-based paints. This segment will drive higher revenue growth and will also expand operating margins in the future. The shift towards water-based paint will bring high growth & also it’s a higher margin product segment compared to solvent-based paints. In FY10, it had issued 2 Cr shares on warrant conversion to a promoter group company, Jenson and Nicholson and issued additional 72 Lakhs shares to Nalanda Fund at Rs. 50.5/share to fund its growth prospects, leading to a total dilution of 8% on the expanded equity capital. It is expected that Berger Paints will not dilute equity further, as it has sufficient internal accruals to fund its growth plans over the next two years.

Outlook & Valuation:

Berger Paints (I) Ltd is the second largest player in the decorative paints market with a 17 % market share and is expected to benefit from the long-term steady demand in paints industry. Revenue and earnings CAGR of 19 % - 20 % over FY11-13E can be expected from Berger Paints, leading to a comfortable cash flow position; Additional fund raising is ruled out. Focus towards water-based paints to augur well will be added advantage for operating margins. Company witnessed 18 % CAGR over FY06-11, while concerns on the short-term demand scenario remains; It is believed that over a longer term, the company is on the way for a healthy growth. The company has already undertaken a 7 % price hike in 1QFY12, which will further help overall sales growth in coming quarters. Company’s subsidiaries  are expected to contribute 7 % to the consolidated sales by FY13E. At the current market price, the stock is trading at 20 x FY12E EPS of Rs 5.00 per share and 16.0x FY13E EPS of Rs 6.20 per share. At 16.36 x FY13E EPS, it is trading at 38% discount to the market leader, Asian Paints. Historically, the company has traded at an average discount of 40% to Asian Paints’ one-year forward mean Price Earning Ratio. It is believed that going forward this discount should narrow due to reasons like Gaining considerable size with a revenue CAGR of 19% over FY11-13E; Product mix focus shifting towards higher growth and better margin business of water-based emulsion paints; Increasing presence across India with rising penetration in the south. Initiate buy with ACCUMULATE on the BERGER PAINTS with the target price of Rs 105/share for the short term valuing it at 17.5x FY13E (30% discount to Asian Paints) EPS of Rs 6.20/share

KEY FINANCIALS	FY10	FY11	FY12E	FY13E
SALES (Rs. crs)	1,891.30	2,328.10	2,896.70	3,317.40
NET PROFIT (Rs. crs)	120.40	150.10	173.30	215.30
EPS (Rs.)	3.50	4.30	5.00	6.20
PE (x)	28.60	22.90	19.90	16.00
P/BV (x)	7.40	5.60	4.70	3.90
EV/EBITDA (x)	16.60	13.40	11.60	9.60
ROCE (%)	24.70	23.30	23.10	24.30
RONW (%)	22.60	25.10	25.90	28.00

I would buy BERGER PAINTS (I) LTD with a price target of Rs. 105 for the short term and Rs. 115 for the 6 month target. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 87.40 on purchase.

As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold BERGER PAINTS in my investment portfolio.