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Monday, October 29, 2012

MCX : MULTI COMMODITY EXCHANGE - India's New Stock Exchange !!!

Q 2 RESULTS ON 2nd November 2012 !!!

Scrip Code: 534091 MCX
CMP:  Rs. 1384.20; Buy at Rs. 1375 - 1385 levels.
Medium to Long term Target – Rs. 1440; 
STOP LOSS – Rs. 1274.00; Market Cap: Rs. 7,059.19 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 1446.95 / Rs. 838.00
Total Shares: 5,09,98,369 shares; Promoters : 1,32,59,575 shares –26.00 %; Total Public holding : 3,77,38,794 shares – 74.00 %; Book Value: Rs. 195.52; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 56.12; Div: 240 % ; P/E: 28.02 times; Ind P/E: 26.67; EV/EBITDA: 14.02.
Total Debt: Rs. ZERO Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 7,059.19 Cr.

Multi Commodity Exchange Of India Ltd: MCX was incorporated as a private limited company on April 19, 2002 in Mumbai, India. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX) is a state-of-the-art electronic commodity futures exchange. The demutualised Exchange has permanent recognition from the Government of India to facilitate online trading, and clearing and settlement operation for commodity futures across the country.  MCX holds a market share of over 85 % as on March 31, 2012 of the Indian commodity futures market. The Exchange has more than 2,710 registered members operating through over 3,46,000 including CTCL trading terminals spread over 1,577 cities and towns across India. MCX was the third largest commodity futures exchange in the world, in terms of the number of contracts traded in CY2011. The Exchange is the world's largest exchange in Silver and Gold, second largest in Natural Gas and the third largest in Crude Oil with respect to the number of futures contract traded. MCX was the first exchange in India to initiate evening sessions to synchronise with the trading hours of global exchanges in London, New York and other major international markets. It was the first exchange in India to offer futures trading in steel, crude oil, and almond. Among international alliances, MCX have formed strategic alliances with a number of exchanges such as the London Metal Exchange, the New York Mercantile Exchange, the LIFFE Administration and Management (under renewal), the Baltic Exchange Limited, Shanghai Futures Exchange and Taiwan Futures Exchange. MCX holds 5 % in Dubai Gold and Commodity Exchange and the book value of this investment was Rs. 2.185 Cr as of December 31, 2011; 100 % in MCX Clearing Corporation Ltd; 5 % in MCX SX; 26 % in MCX-SX Clearing Corporation Ltd; 51 % in SME Exchange of India Ltd with initial investment of Rs. 5,10,000. MCXIL is compared with Financial Technologies (India) Ltd in India, Ichiyoshi Securities Co Ltd of Japan, Osaka Securities Exchange also from Japan, CME group, Intercontinental Exchange Inc, Nasdaq OMX Group/THE, CBOE Holdings Inc, London Stock Exchange Group, TMX Group Inc, Deutsche Boerse AG, Bolsas Y Mercados Espanoles, ASX Ltd, Singapore Exchange Ltd, Hong Kong Exchange & Clearing House Ltd, Bursa Malaysia BHD

Investment Rationale:
Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) is a state-of-the-art electronic commodity futures exchange, with near monopolistic market share of 86 % in FY12. MCX enjoys a competitive edge, given that its trading platform is supplied by its promoter, Financial Technologies India (FTECH), which is a leading developer of exchange related software and technology. Technology for the exchange industry is difficult to replicate, and this provides the company with a competitive advantage. Exchanges require constant technology upgrades and support, necessitated by regulatory regime and market forces. MCX is able to obtain speedy and efficient technology solutions from FTECH. MCX’s current technology infrastructure is sufficient to handle daily trading volumes of up to 10,000,000 in a day. So far, it has handled a high of 1,867,612 trades in a day. MCX has 2,170 members and 346,000+ terminals including computer-to computer links (CTCLs) spread over 1,577 cities and towns across India as at the end of FY12. The number of terminals has increased from 117,000 in FY10. Healthy terminal additions partially offsets the risk of lower volumes traded per member, with gradual ramp-up in volumes expected from new additions. Being the largest commodity exchange in India, with near-monopolistic market share, MCX is the key source of data on commodity trends. This gives MCX the opportunity to benefit from new non transaction revenue sources like market data product and information offerings.  This not only provides scalability to the business model, but also offers potential for growth with limited incremental costs. Growth in commodity markets facilitate demand for better trading and analytical tools, risk management tool, market data products and price information offerings which could be new revenue streams. Globally, exchanges derive 10% - 15 % of their revenues from such services. Indian exchanges do not match that number, especially in equities, given weak acceptance of algorithmic trades. MCX is better placed to garner revenues from such sources, given its speedier execution in such trades, which already constitute significant proportion of the company’s volumes. To facilitate the same, MCX has entered into agreements with financial information service agencies to provide real time data-feed on trading prices, trading volume and other information on the Exchange and on the spot market. The company currently has such arrangements with the following entities: Bloomberg Finance L.P.; NewsWire 18 Private Limited; IQN Data Solutions Private Limited; Reuters India Private Limited; Interactive Data (Europe) Limited and TickerPlant Limited. It is expected that it will sustain its market leadership which is steamed up from its technological edge and future readiness. MCX's volumes have grown at a CAGR of 47 % over FY07-FY12. Future potential remains exciting given that government on 4th October cleared the new FCRA Bill which seeks to provide complete autonomy to the commodities FMC and introduce new categories of products, with MCX having 20 lakhs client accounts as compared with 1.9 Cr – 2 CR Demat accounts, the industry has only scratched the surface with respect to potential volumes.

Outlook and Valuation:
MCX-SX, promoted by MCX and FTECH, was recently cleared to become a full-fledged stock exchange. Like BSE and NSE, it can now start trading in equities, equity derivatives and other asset classes. Currently, MCX-SX only offers trading in currency futures contracts, but soon MCX-SX intends to have a dedicated platform for small business, and hopes SME's should aspire to raise upto US$ 20 million annually through such platforms. There are at least 1% of the 30 million SME's which have strong balance sheets to get AAA rating and can look at raising money from the primary market, many SME's depend on informal system for their financing needs, paying upto 2% per month for debt & in spite of a such a high cost of servicing debt, the business continues to remain competitive & wonder quantum of benefits which will accrue if they shift to formal way of finance and access the Equity Markets. Private equity, Venture Capital and Angel Funds will invest in such companies only if they are confident of an exit route which can be made easy by the formally platforms like exchanges..

MCX-SX announced its flagship index of MCX Stock Exchange (MCX-SX) known as ‘SX-40’ which will be a free float based index of large market cap and liquid stocks representing most important sectors. MCX-SX will collaborate its indices with the initiatives support from the sources like Indian Statistical Institute – India’s premier research institute, FTSE, London and FTKMC in creating various domestic and global indices. This partnership will help MCX-SX to create new indices that will enable domestic and global investor to track, analyse and invest in India’s dynamic financial markets. The value from MCX-SX is more definite than merely option value, considering this FY14 is expected to be first full year with operations in currency and equities. MCX-SX Equity Stock Exchange is in competition with BSE & NSE. The Bombay stock exchange had a legacy of 132 years in India, a reliable brand, with the letters almost becoming synonymous with investing in India. However, all this was till NSE came onto the scene in 1992. Being a relatively new entity, NSE was nimbler and more receptive to innovation. While it was difficult for NSE to carve a niche initially, but quickly realizing the importance of IT and innovative products to meet the growing sophistication of the financial markets, NSE raced ahead to rule market share charts. However the share of it has continued to improve even after the shift of balance in power is reflected in the turnover metrics on the two exchanges since FY01. MCX-SX, with its parentage of Financial Technologies, has access to technology and management having experience of operating exchanges successfully across the globe will successfully be able achieve its share of market pie. On valuation side - NSE received a valuation of Rs. 17,100 Cr in the last known stake sale which happened in December 2011, which discounted its FY12 revenues by 11x . This is at par with the Price/Sales ratio that Singapore enjoys. MCX-SX had revenues of Rs. 39.1 Cr in FY11. However, the levying of transaction charges in currency futures had commenced only from August 2011, implying that in FY12, the company had 7 months of additional income in the form of transactional charges in FY12. Going by the volumes and rate card, this translates into Rs. 41.5 Cr of revenues from transaction charges, and even if we assume that other sources of income reduced as member additions may have fallen, FY12 revenue would still be higher than Rs. 60 Cr. Given the low base and high growth, the valuation multiple could be higher, so discounting FY14E the revenue is estimated at Rs. 130 Cr by 11x, to arrive at a valuation at Rs. 1400 Cr. MCX's stake in MCX-SX (including warrants) amounts to Rs. 540 Cr. Within the next 18 months, the shareholding of MCX and FTECH in MCX-SX will have to be reduced to 2.5 % each, as the approval is subject to the condition that the combined voting rights of FTECH and MCX in MCX-SX will not exceed 5 %. Earlier, FTECH held 31 % and MCX held 38 % in MCX-SX. Then, to comply with SEBI guidelines for starting equity trading, they reduced their stake in MCX-SX to 5 % each. This was done through conversion of excess equity stake (beyond 10 %) to warrants. This led to 68.2 % reduction in capital from Rs. 170 Cr to Rs. 54 Cr. The warrants will be sold to banks and financial institutions. The value of MCX's standalone business comes at 20x FY14E, in-line with the average multiple to commodity exchanges in the emerging markets. There are enough reason for MCX to even trade at a premium given the scope to outgrow peer exchanges globally, given that the potential is still untapped in India, its higher growth will be augmented by even better earnings and improvement in return ratios (variable costs largely only in the form of transaction fees paid to parent), and its near-monopolistic market share, to which there is little threat, given MCX’s technology backbone and readiness to latch on to new opportunities and also the policy to maintain 50 % payout ratio is a key valuation positive. The valuation of MCX’s standalone business at 20x FY14E EPS of Rs. 66.5 – Rs. 1,330/sh; the valuation of the stake in MCX-SX (incl. warrants) comes at Rs. 4,500 Cr. Assuming a revenue base of Rs. 130 Cr in FY14, at 11x FY14 Sales, MCX-SX's valuation is Rs. 1400 Cr (much lesser than that implied in the last stake sale). Stake in MCX-SX (including warrants) contributes additional Rs. 110 per share to MCX. It is expected that MCX to have volumes growth of 15 % CAGR over FY12-15 and a PAT CAGR of 13% over this period. Also, the ROE should sustain its level in the high 20's.  In my view MCX could report FY14E EPS of Rs. 66.50/sh and for FY 15E of Rs. 76.50/sh. The stock could be bought for the target price of Rs. 1440 implies 23 % upside in earnings and recommend Accumulate on the stock.

SALES (Rs. Crs)526.20517.20615.20720.00
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs) 286.20282.40339.40407.10
EPS (Rs.)56.1055.4066.5079.80
PE (x)20.9021.2017.6014.70
P/BV (x)6.005.304.604.00
EV/EBITDA (x)14.3014.7011.509.00
ROE (%)31.0026.5027.8029.00
ROCE (%)24.8025.5026.9028.20

I would buy MCX INDIA LTD with a price target of Rs. 1440 for the 6 month target. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 1274.00 on your every purchase.



Tuesday, October 23, 2012


Scrip Code: 500696 HINDUNILVR
CMP:  Rs. 569.45; Buy at Rs. 565-570 levels.
Target for 6 month - 1 year: Rs. 600.00; STOP LOSS – Rs. 480.00; Market Cap: Rs. 1,23,110.42 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 580.45 / Rs. 325.20. 
Total Shares: 216,19,18,098 shares; Promoters: 113,48,49,460 shares – 52.49 %; Total Public holding: 102,70,68,638 shares – 47.48 %; Book Value: Rs. 15.88; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 15.62; Div: 650 %; P/E: 35.85 times; Ind. P/E: 44.19; EV/EBITDA: 39.74 
Total Debt: Rs. ZERO Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 1,24,980.48 Cr.

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD: The Company was founded in 1931 and is based in Mumbai, India. The company was formerly known as Hindustan Lever Limited and changed its name to Hindustan Unilever Limited in 2007.  Hindustan Unilever Limited, is a Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) company – it provides home and personal care products; foods and beverages in India and internationally. The company operates in 7 business segments. The company offers soaps and detergents, including soaps, detergent bars, detergent powders, detergent liquids, and scourers; and personal products - such as oral care, skin care, hair care, deodorant, talcum powder, and color cosmetic products, as well as Ayush services. It also provides beverages - including tea and coffee; foods, such as Atta (flour), salt, and bread; culinary products comprising tomato and fruit based products, and soups; and ice creams, such as ice creams and frozen desserts. In addition, the company offers chemicals, such as glycerin and fine chemicals; agri commodities; and water purifiers, as well as exports marine and leather products. HUL has over 35 brands spanning 20 distinct categories. Its portfolio of brands includes the brand names like - 3 Roses, Annapurna, Brooke Bond, Taaza, Bru, Kissan, Knorr, Kwality Wall’s, Lipton, Modern, Red Label, and Taj Mahal brand names; personal products under the Aviance, Axe, Breeze, Clear, Clinic Plus, Closeup, Dove, Fair & Lovely, Hamam, LEVER Ayush Therapy, Lakme, Lifebuoy, Liril 2000, Lux, Pears, Pepsodent, Pond's, Rexona Soap, Sunsilk, and Vaseline brand names; and home care products under the Active Wheel, Cif, Comfort, Domex, Rin, Sunlight, Surf Excel, and Vim brand names and water purifiers under the brand name Pureit. 

Investment Rationale:
HUL’s management has successfully turned around the business in the past two years through focusing on volume growth, cost rationalisation and faster innovation. From a situation where the company was growing below market average and losing market share in 2009, HUL has consistently delivered near-double-digit volume growth for nine quarters. This has come despite the company raising blended prices by 10 % YoY to pass on raw material cost inflation. HUL’s Management has delivered a strong and sustainable turnaround. HUL’s strong investments in innovation starting from FY10 have imparted volume growth momentum to the business. In a departure from the company’s strategy over the 2000's on rationalising brand portfolio and aligning to the parent’s global objectives, HUL has become more focused on the local market, improved agility (means the capability of rapidly & efficiently adapting to changes) in responding to competition and is churning out a significantly larger number of innovations. Over 60 % of HUL’s large portfolio was touched by innovation in FY12, with a clear focus on premiumisation in established categories and growth in new categories such as deodorants and face washes. HUL’s see a moderate scope for margin expansion as the key raw materials for HUL such as LAB, palm oil and packaging have not seeing an absolute decline in prices besides having seen a moderation in YoY inflation. Given the volume growth momentum, HUL continues to gradually increase prices which should help inch up gross margins in FY13. Also, the strong revenue growth is imparting operating leverage to the business. However, post 1H FY 13, HUL will not have the benefit of a weak base; this could limit margin expansion. In the period of 2000-08, HUL had actually curtailed its portfolio of brands in categories such as soaps, detergents and tea, de-focusing on ‘local brands’ while increasing investments into global brand platforms. However, given the local nature of competition in these three categories, this led to market share losses in many states where HUL de-focussed on regionally strong brands. This is changed now, with management focusing on every part of their portfolio. Thus, local brands such as Sunlight, Hamam, Breeze, Ruby and Lakme have also seen innovation activity in the past two years. In FY12, the company took a strong jump in its rural distribution (which was already the best in the industry) by expanding its coverage by three times. With this, HUL’s total direct retail coverage is over 20 Lakh outlets, compared with 5 -11 lakh outlets of its key competitors. Another positive for HUL is that the high-margin in personal products business has seen very stable growth in the range of 15 %- 20 % over the past nine quarters, driven by strong double-digit volume growth.

Outlook and Valuation:
As an organisation, HUL has become more agile in responding to competitive moves and volatility in input costs, which is needed to remain competitive in the market. HUL’s Soaps & Detergents revenue growth over the past few quarters has been well above the average growth. While drivers like premiumisation should continue to drive a 10 %-15 % sustainable growth in these categories, most of the listed companies are reporting growth well in excess of these levels. One of the reasons is that unbranded products or local brands in these categories are losing share as they become uncompetitive in a high input cost environment. Also, the high cost of capital and the volatility in currency could be impacting small businesses much more than larger companies.

However, the share gain of the branded players should stem at some stage, leading to moderation in revenue growth. Soaps and detergents continue to be an important part of HUL’s profits. For FY12, the segment constituted 47 % of revenue and 36 % of operating profit. Thus, any moderation in growth here could be a key risk for HUL. These categories, being the two largest FMCG categories, are also highly susceptible to down-trading by consumers as they form large parts of the consumer wallet within FMCG. Here is the 13 year short details on HUL's Financial - 

YEAREPS (in Rs.)P/E (X)BV (in Rs.)Div/Sh (in Rs.)
2000 5.9534.6811.303.50
5 YR  EPS (in Rs.)P/E (X)BV (in Rs.)Div/Sh (in Rs.)

HUL has traded at an average one-year forward P/E of 24.3x over the past 10 years, which includes the period of eight years between CY03 and FY11 when the company delivered less than 3 % earnings CAGR, significantly below its listed peers. Even during the peak of the price war with P&G from 2004 to 2006, the stock traded at an average one-year forward P/E of 24.2x. Hence, HUL should trade at a premium to its valuation during these periods given the high visibility of mid-teens earnings CAGR over the next three years. The turnaround affected by management over the past two years was based on investments made in innovation and distribution, which could reap benefits over the next two-three years. Hence, the valuation of HUL comes at 30x one-year forward earnings, which is a 20 % premium to the stock’s 10-year trading average. At the CMP of Rs. 569.45, the stock is trading at 5.62 x FY2012E and 5.22 x FY2013E EV/EBITDA, the stock is trading at a P/E of 37.81 x FY13E and 32.22 x FY14E respectively. Earnings per share (EPS) of company for FY13E and FY14E are seen at Rs. 15.06 and Rs. 17.67 respectively. One can buy HUL with a target price of Rs. 600.00 for a minimum of 6 month to 1 year.

SALES (Rs. Crs)21,735.6025,722.8129,965.1134,912.91
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs) 2,691.413,255.353,820.244,517.14
EPS (Rs.)12.4515.0617.6720.90
PE (x)41.2034.1029.1024.60
P/BV (x)31.6027.1023.2019.80
EV/EBITDA (x)33.2026.9022.6019.00
ROE (%)87.2085.5085.9086.80
ROCE (%)87.4892.9194.4395.67

I would buy HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD with a price target of Rs. 610 for minimum of 6 months to 1 year. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of  Rs. 480.00 on every purchase as it is the for the 1 year target.

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD in my investment portfolio.


Friday, October 19, 2012


Many beginners ask me that what is share capital and how a company is formed, so here is a short explanation to that. Company can have Equity Shares, Preference Shares and or Differential Voting Rights Equity shares as its Share Capital. 

Share Capital denotes to the amount of capital raised by the issue of shares (viz Equity, Preference, DVR or all of them), by a company. It is collected through the issue of shares and remains with the company till its liquidation. Share Capital is owned capital of the company, since it is the money of the shareholders & so these share holders are the owners of the company. The total share capital is divided into small parts & each part is called a 'SHARE'. Share is the smallest part of the total capital of company. 

In India, Share holding of 51% in a company is considered as a controlled holding. Any company willing to go public or willing to have an IPO has to maintain at least 10% of its total issued shares with the general public. Recently SEBI have extended the deadline for all the companies in India to maintain at least 25% of their total issued shares with the general public. So, it means promoters cannot hold more than 75% of the total issued shares in a company. 25% public shareholding is must.

Authorized Capital - The maximum amount of capital which a company can collect or raise by selling its shares, it is also known as Nominal Capital or Registered Capital. Issued Capital -  Is the part of the Authorized capital which is actually issued to general public. Subscribed Capital - Is the part of the issued capital which is actually subscribed by the general public. Paid Up Capital - Is that part of the called up capital which is actually paid up by the shareholders. Now in general companies are not in practice to have partly paid up or call up money. The Company takes full face value money on the issue. So fully paid up Face value is the Paid Up Capital of the Company.

What is Share Capital Base :
When I form a company, I use my personal wealth as Capital i.e. I invest my own money into the company and into the business activities. In the process of forming & registering a new company under the Companies Act 1966 it needs to be Capitalized whereby I infuse money or assets into the company and get shares of that company in return. e.g. If I infuse Rs. 5000 or assets worth Rs. 5000 to form a company , I will be getting Shares worth Rs. 5000 of that newly formed company & so I become the promoter of the company. Capitalization is the process in which owners have to come with number of shares and its face value.

Here in India, per share value used is Rs. 10 , Rs. 5, Rs. 2, Re. 1 as its face value  which is then multiplied by number of shares issued or divided by total invested money. Let’s take some example – In my company I invest Rs. 5,000 - Thus the capitalization of my company is as follows –
  1. Authorized capital is Rs. 5,000 i.e. 500 Shares x Rs. 10/share.
  2. Paid up Equity Capital is Rs. 5,000, thus Rs. 5,000 becomes the total capital base of my company at the time of registration or inception.
There can also be second scenario where, I can have my capital base of Rs. 6,000…but I paid only Rs. 5,000. Therefore –
  1. Authorized capital will be Rs. 6,000 i.e. 600 shares x Rs. 10 each.
  2. Issued, Subscribed & Paid up Equity share capital is Rs. 5,000 i.e. issued capital is only of Rs. 5,000 & Issued equity shares is only 500 shares.
This is also the VALUE of business because it is still not generating any profits or it is still not established etc. I will use the second scenario for the further discussion which is in usual practice. To increase the value of my company, I work hard and increase the value of my company by branding, marketing, market positioning, revenue, profits, future potential, and market share. I keep all the profits as I am the only share holder having all the company's paid up equity capital and so my business has high net-worth. The total earnings of my company are divided by 500 shares. So the company’s Earnings Per Share (EPS) is based on 500 shares that are issued to me.

Remember, according to my authorized capital, I still have 100 shares of Rs. 10 face value more remaining to be issued. They are not yet issued or not been paid up & hence authorized capital is not considered while calculating EPS - its just taken as a note.

Going forward, at some point in the future, I feel that I am in need of more money or capital for the expansion or I want to grow my business – I have 2 ways – either I can go to banks or  go to other sources of finance or I forgo a little bit of my equity holdings.

If I go to banks which are loans/debts taken from banks – then I have to pay Interest which under all circumstances I have to pay. And, If I issue shares i.e. I forgo a little bit of my equity holding then in this case I don’t have to pay interest to them (my new shareholders) nor its compulsory to declare dividends, but I have to share my profits, losses and even bankruptcy with my new shareholders.

            So I decide to go for raising capital by diluting the equity i.e. I am taking additional partners by issuing them new shares. These partners can be Private Equity players, financial institutions or any public investor (if it is opened to common public which is called IPO) which will be my new shareholders. During this course of time, the value of my business has raised much more than Rs. 6,000 as it is now an established business making lots of good profit and with lots of potential & whoever wishes to become partner or stakeholder will be getting partial ownership of the well established profitable business with minimum risk and so I will be demanding Premium on the face value of Rs. 10 from my new shareholders, this premium will be as per the present value of the business.

How to determine Present Value – 
For example – Consider that the present value of the business comes to Rs. 1,20,000. With this increased value of the business, the market value per share will be Rs. 200/share. (Rs. 1,20,000/600 shares). I decide to issue 50 share from remaining 100 shares to go public. I use public offering (IPO) & price my share at Rs. 200/sh. I raise Rs. 10,000 (50 x Rs. 200). Now, the capital structure is as under –
  1. Authorised capital is still Rs. 6,000 (600 sh of Rs.10 each).
  2. Issued, Subscribed & Paid up Equity is Rs. 5500 (original 500 sh & additional 50 share).
  3. Share premium Account will now come to existence with Rs. 9500 (Rs. 10,000 – 50 x 10)  
Share premium is considered as part of total shareholders’ equity. Additional money beyond face value is called Share Premium. Total Shareholder's Equity is also known as Net-worth or Stockholders Equity or Shareholders Fund or Share Capital.

            A company can also issue Preference shares or DVR share along with Equity shares. Many beginners presume that Equity base is the IPO price x IPO shares, but the fact is that in IPO the owner is only opening partial ownership to raise additional capital for growing business. At this point the total earnings of the company is divided by 550 shares. Because now a total of 550 shares have been issued & issued subscribe & paid up equity has increased to 550 shares. Even though the mass public has only 50 shares, it is not the only shares in company, IPO shares are add on to existing 500 shares. 

Company issues lavish Bonuses of Shares before IPO -
If one reads the Draft Red Herring Prospectus of any IPO one will notice that before the IPO the promoters or pre IPO shareholders are given lavish bonuses of shares reducing the net worth of company and increasing the issued, subscribed & paid up capital base of the company. I have seen some issues whereby the promoters are given bonus in the ratio of 100 shares for every 1 share held before the IPO this makes the promoter's acquisition price of equity share less than its Face value, in some cases it goes into paise. This is because before IPO, the value of shares are much higher due to the past profits are accumulated as "Reserves" in the balance sheet. And to draw back my capital I issue fresh new shares as bonus thus reducing my reserve to that extend and hence increasing the share base reducing its value. You can see many big investors exit wholly or partially in the IPO as they already have taken back their invested money in the form of Bonus shares, So one should also consider this while investing in the IPO's.    

Saturday, October 13, 2012

EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA: Shaping the future of Indian Entertainment !!!

Scrip Code: 533261 EROSMEDIA

CMP:  Rs. 162.55; Buy at current levels.

Medium to Long term Target – Rs. 180; STOP LOSS – Rs. 149.55; Market Cap: Rs. 1,491.84 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 276.95 / Rs. 153.00
Total Shares: 9,17,77,720 shares; Promoters : 7,14,07,000 shares –77.80 %; Total Public holding : 2,03,70,720 shares – 22.20 %; Book Value: Rs. 72.99; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 13.74; Div: NIL % ; P/E: 11.91 times; Ind P/E: 29.33; EV/EBITDA: 8.76.
Total Debt: Rs. 354.20 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 1,846.04 Cr.

EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA: EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA was incorporated as in 1977 and is based in Mumbai, India. It is subsidiary of EROS WORLDWIDE FZ LLC. Eros International Media Limited operates in the media and entertainment sector in India and internationally. It engages in sourcing content through acquisition, co-production, or production; the theatrical distribution network operation; licensing films for cable, satellite, and terrestrial television; and the distribution of Tamil film content in Western Europe through its own television station. The company also distributes content through physical formats, such as DVD, VCD, and Blu-rays, as well as the digital mediums comprising VOD, DTH, Internet, mobile, and in-flight entertainment; and involved in music publishing and distribution activities. In addition, it provides production planning and visual effects services for films; engages in the acquisition, production, and distribution of Tamil films worldwide; and involved in cable or DTH licensing, as well as trading and exporting international film rights. The company owns approximately 1,100 films comprising Hindi, Tamil, and other regional languages & has aggregated rights to over 1,900 films plus additional 700 films for which the company holds digital rights only. In the year 2006, Eros International Plc, the holding company of the Eros Group, became the first Indian company to list on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of the London Stock Exchange. It distributes content through retail outlets and it’s Website under the Eros and Ayngaran labels. EROSMEDIA can be compared with PVR Ltd, Prime Focus ltd, Tips Industries Ltd.

Investment Rationale:
Eros International Media Ltd is a leading global company in the Indian filmed entertainment industry that acquires co-produces and distributes Indian language films in multiple formats.The Company has strong distribution capabilities which enable them to target a majority of the 1.2 billion people in India, primary market for Hindi language films. The company has distribution offices in Mumbai, Delhi, Punjab, Mysore and Chennai. The group has a distribution network that spans over 50 countries, with offices in India, UK, USA, Dubai, Australia, Fiji, Isle of Man and Singapore. The company also holds license of airborne rights to certain airlines for in-flight movie viewing. 

Eros International Media Ltd has announced the launch of its online music channel Eros Now Music on YouTube. Eros has leveraged its wide reach and the subscriber base of its YouTube presence to launch a new channel Eros Now Music for established and emerging artists. Eros Now Music will feature established as well as emerging talent including Shaan, DJ Sheizwood, UK based pop artist Kimeli, Shweta Yogendra, Farhan Saeed, Gajendra, Simmy and Tippy, Rahul / Shah Rule among others. The content on the newly launched channel will include music videos and special behind the scenes footage. Eros International collaborates with Anurag Kashyap Films Pvt Ltd & Sikhya Entertainment to present Peddlers in the International Critics' Week, Cannes 2012. EIML has been honored with a Certificate of Excellence at the recently held Annual Inc. India Awards. EIML released 23 films during Q1FY13 in different languages; 5 Hindi, 18 Tamil & other regional language films. EIML recently signed a licensing agreement with colors’ Viacom18 Media Pvt. Ltd. EIML has been honored with a Certificate of Excellence at the recently held Annual Inc. India Awards. Eros International Media Ltd has released 23 films during Q1FY13 in different languages (19 films in Q1 FY12); 5 Hindi, 18 Tamil & other regional language films. The company has written a story of growth and positive start for Q2 FY13 with the successful release of “Cocktail” in July 2012, which has done a net box office collection of Rs. 100 crore worldwide. Eros International announces satellite television licensing deal with COLORS' Viacom18 Eros International Media Ltd has signed a licensing agreement with COLORS’ Viacom18 Media Pvt. Ltd for new and forthcoming releases and library films to be shown exclusively on Viacom18's COLORS channel in India.

Outlook and Valuation:
The recent KPMG report anticipates the market size of Indian Music & Entertainment sector to touch Rs 1,45,700 Cr (US$ 25.51 billion) by 2016. There is increased penetration in Indian markets, which is expected to even intensify further, owing to a revolution brought in by digital technology. Wireless broadband, growing internet usage, cable digitisation and higher DTH adoption would further drive Indian M&E industry. The report also noted that smart phones, tablets, gaming devices have laid the foundation of a new wave in the industry. The company reported net profit of Rs. 31.41 Cr as against Rs. 21.66 Cr in the last quarter, the revenue last quarter was Rs. 2,570.30 Cr, the company posted an tremendous growth of 44.44 % in EPS which stood at Rs. 3.42/sh in the last quarter. At the current market price of Rs. 162.55, the stock P/E ratio is at 8.37 x FY13E and 7.16 x FY14E respectively. Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY13E and FY14E is seen at Rs. 19.40 and Rs. 22.69 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 25 % and 21 % over 2011 to 2014E respectively. On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 5.33 x for FY13E and 4.57 x for FY14E. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 1.52 x and 1.26 x respectively for FY13E and FY14E. It is expected that the company's surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years, will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. One can ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs. 180.00 for Medium to Long term investment. 

SALES (Rs. Crs)706.97943.881,170.411,388.69
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs) 117.23147.84178.04208.25
EPS (Rs.)12.8216.1219.4022.69
PE (x)13.0510.388.627.37
P/BV (x)2.291.841.521.26
EV/EBITDA (x)9.266.625.494.71
ROE (%)17.6717.8717.7317.19
ROCE (%)19.4718.7019.4719.58

I would buy EROS INTERNATIONAL MEDIA LTD with a price target of Rs. 180 for the medium to long term target. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 149.55 on your every purchase.


Wednesday, October 3, 2012

CMC : The IT Partner for your Portfolio !!!


Scrip Code: 517326 CMC
CMP:  Rs. 1165.80; Buy at Rs. 1155 - Rs. 1165 levels.

Medium to Long term Target – Rs. 1200; STRICT STOP LOSS – Rs. 1073.00; Market Cap: Rs. 3,532.37 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 1,187.30 / Rs. 721.30

Total Shares: 3,03,00,000 shares; Promoters : 1,54,89,922 shares –51.12 %; Total Public holding : 1,48,10,078 shares – 48.87 %; Book Value: Rs. 229.84; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 53.06.82; Div: 125 % ; P/E: 21.71 times; Ind P/E: 7.20; EV/EBITDA: 19.18.
Total Debt: Rs. ZERO Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 7,065.05 Cr.

CMC LTD: The Company was founded in 1975 and is based in New Delhi, India. CMC Limited is a subsidiary of Tata Consultancy Services Limited which holds 51% as a promoter. CMC Limited was formerly known as Computer Maintenance Corporation Private Limited and changed its name to CMC Limited in August 1984. CMC Limited engages in the design, development, and implementation of software technologies and applications, as well as the provision of professional IT services in India and internationally. The company’s Customer Services segment is involved in the provision of IT infrastructure architecture, design, and consulting services; turnkey system integration of large network and data centre infrastructures; procurement, installation, commissioning, warranty, and maintenance of imported/indigenous computer and networking systems, and software; and provision of on-site and remote support services. Its Systems Integration segment undertakes the activities of solution deployment that includes embedded systems, software development, software maintenance and support, turnkey project implementation, and systems consultancy. The company’s IT enabled Services segment provides business process outsourcing and knowledge process outsourcing services for front end and back office, which include on-demand software services, office records digitization and document management, recruitment and examination results management, and legacy data migration management. Its Education and Training segment offers education and training programs in the areas of information technology, soft skills training, integrated career development, skills development, and vocational programs to corporate organizations, government institutions, and individuals. The company’s Special Economic Zone (SEZ) segment rents its SEZ campus facilities located in Hyderabad to TCS. It serves customers in banking and financial services, ecommerce, e-governance, defense and space, power and utilities, government, and hi-tech and telecommunication industries. The Company is compared with NIIT Technologies, Sonata Software ltd, Kpit Cummins Infosystems Ltd  

Investment Rationale:
CMC is a leading systems engineering and integration company in India under the strong parentage of TCS. CMC’s unique solutions approach in the System integration space along with the focus in the Hi-tech space has enabled CMC to post a robust growth in an uncertain environment and also ensured revenue stickiness for future. The company has been working for last several years with TRW a large automotive electronic player primarily due to its unique domain capabilities and hi-tech approach. It is believed that like other successful mid cap focused players CMC’s expertise has been the Hi-tech space where competition has been limited which enables significant revenue and client stickiness. The above solutions and technology approach along with TCS parentage will provide CMC with all advantages of a large player (inspite of being a small player) right from capabilities to offer services across geographies to a large balance sheet required to participate in huge projects like the Indian passport project. Looking at the result side CMC has posted an average 36 % growth (YoY) over the past nine quarters in the System Integration segment driven by robust traction in the US market, which contributes more than 70 % to the vertical’s revenue. The segment’s PBIT margin has also been above 20 % and management expects it to rise further with increase in offshore execution. Also, with the rising government focus, particularly on e-governance & on faster economic developments, the Indian markets are rightly placed in the fastest growing category in the APAC region. CMC’s execution track in the domestic space currently contributes 35 % - 40 % of total revenues. CMC gives services to Indian Railways’ online reservation, ICR for Office of Registrar and this clearly exhibits its powers in executing complicated projects. The company also expects offshore execution to increase by at least 10 % in the System Integration (SI) business which will enable its margins to improve by at least 300bps or 3 %. It is believed that there is a scope for at least 400bps or 4 % margin improvement in this vertical, which will boost overall margin by at least 200bps or 2 % over the next couple of years. CMC has been able to emerge strongly in the SI business in both revenue and margin primarily due to its arrangement with TCS. CMC and TCS have an arrangement whereby contracts are won by the latter in the international market and executed by the former, for which CMC pays a marketing fee. There are also instances where the companies have executed projects jointly with a revenue sharing model, more so in case of extremely large size and complex projects like the Indian government’s passport project, requiring varied skill sets and a strong capability at the project winning stage.

Outlook and Valuation:
According to Nasscom Indian IT has predominantly been known for strong exports (23% CAGR over FY04-12) in the past vis-a-vis domestic spend (18% CAGR over FY04-12). India is significantly underpenetrated (going by even per capita IT spend) versus most developed nations and both governments at the Centre and state levels have time and again emphasized on the importance of IT adoption and its role in streamlining key work processes like land records, e-rolls etc. The government’s National e- Governance Programmes (NeGP) and Unique Identification Development (UID) programme are just a first few key steps towards digitisation. It is believed that UID will lay a significant stepping stone for the future IT infrastructure. Nasscom predicts India to be the fastest growing IT services market worldwide. Management has clarified that the company has exited from loss making equipment deals in Q1FY13 and will maintain 10 % margin going forward. CMC has consistently paid dividends over the years with payout ratio being in the 17-25% range. Going ahead too, the company plans to continue the policy of paying dividends. An estimated dividend payout ratio of 30% for FY13 and FY14 is expected. CMC is expected to post robust revenue and earnings CAGR over FY12-14E, respectively, driven by strong growth in SI business and exit from loss making deals in the CS segment.  CMC could be bought with a long-term due to strong uptick expected from government spends, timing of which is difficult. In my view CMC could report FY13E EPS of Rs. 79.70/sh and for FY 14E of Rs. 104.40/sh. The stock could be bought for the target price of Rs. 1255 and recommend Accumulate on the stock.

SALES (Rs. Crs)1,096.201,469.301,873.602,313.40
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs) 179.40151.80241.30316.40
EPS (Rs.)59.2050.1079.70104.40
PE (x)16.3019.3012.209.30
P/BV (x)4.503.803.202.60
EV/EBITDA (x)11.9012.108.806.80
ROE (%)27.4021.3028.4030.70
ROCE (%)31.2027.4034.1036.50

I would buy CMC LTD with a price target of Rs. 1200 for the short term and Rs. 1255 for the 6 month target. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 1073.00 on every purchase. 

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