TALWALKARS BETTER VALUE FITNESS LTD :Spreading Fitness !!!

Scrip Code: 533200 / TALWALKARS

CMP:  Rs. 166.00; Buy at current levels. Short term Target: Rs. 210, 6 month Target – Rs. 250; STOP LOSS – Rs. 152.75; Market Cap: Rs. 400.32 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 306.80 / Rs. 157.70

Total Shares: 2,41,15,672 shares; Promoters : 1,43,45,856 shares –59.49 %; Total Public holding : 97,69,816 shares – 40.51 %; Book Value: Rs. 51.74; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 6.21; Div: 10.00 % ; P/E: 26.73 times; Ind. P/E: 26.33; EV/EBITDA: 19.00

Total Debt: Rs. 111.38 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 511.70 cr.

TALWALKARS BETTER VALUE FITNESS LTD: The Company was founded in 1932 and is based in Mumbai, India.  Talwalkars Better Value Fitness Limited (TBVF) was formerly known as Talwalkars Better Value Fitness Private Limited. The company operates a fitness chain in India. The company offers a suite of services, including gyms, spas, aerobics, nutrition counseling, physiotherapy guidance, yoga classes and health counseling under the ‘Talwalkars’ brand.  The Company has an 8,000 square feet residential training academy at Thane. The training academy offers about 4 to 6 weeks of training program for its staff joining at the new centers.  As of May 11- 2011, it had 102 health clubs in 52 towns and had more than 75,000 members. Its health clubs/training centers are located in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

Investment Rationale: Talwalkar Better Value Fitness (TBVF) is the largest health club player in India and amongst top 20 in the world. It is an early entrant into the health club market in India and has been able to build a strong brand name by providing high quality gym equipment and services. The fitness market size in India is estimated to be US$113 mn. The penetration of fitness market in India is 0.4 % taken for top 7 cities which are significantly lower than other nations like China 2.3 % & Japan 3.1 % & 3.7 % in Asia Pacific region. In India - the total number of fitness clubs are around 765 and number of membership are around 23,00,000. The industry is highly fragmented with many standalone gyms. This industry is in the early growth stages with little differentiation and high price sensitivity. A growing economy, growing income, increasing urbanization, improving lifestyle and higher health awareness in India will result in higher penetration of fitness market. As TBVF is the largest player in the market with a strong brand it will be a major beneficiary of this growing market. TBVF has a strong brand name in the health club market in the country. It has been able to provide high quality equipment with good service which has thus enabled it to be a prominent player in the otherwise fragmented market. TBVF is one of the first movers in the industry and has a pan India presence about 50 towns which will enable it to cater to the widespread market. TBVF will increase its owned gyms by double to 143 gyms by FY13. TBVF had raised Rs. 77.40 Cr in 2010 through an IPO to repay its high cost debt of Rs. 20.6 Cr and to fund its expansion plans for 27 gyms for Rs 50.2 Cr. The company has been able to deploy the funds as per expected use and will now require no further dilution for its future growth plans of 35 gyms each by FY13. With no further dilution required and the benefits of expansions to come, the return ratios are going to improve;It is expected that ROE to be around 20 % & ROIC – 13.7 % by FY13. TBVF had a debt-equity ratio of 2.1 x in FY10. Post the IPO the debt-equity has come down to 0.7 x in FY11.

Outlook and Valuation:

In India, as per United Nations the percentage of urban population is going to increase from 30 % in 2010 to 54.2 % by 2050. Increasing urbanization will result in greater usage of fitness club due to higher health awareness and growing lifestyle diseases. India has a young population and it is expected that the population will continue to remain young for the next two decades. Currently 65 % of the population is between the age of 15 - 64 and it is expected that 68 % of the population in 2030 will remain in this age group. It has been globally seen that the people in the age group of 18-54 tend to exercise more. As per TBVF every city/town with a population of 6,00,000 can accommodate one health club of its kind. The growing urbanization will thus increase the number of towns/cities with a population greater than 6,00,000 whereby further expanding the potential market for TBVF. The combination of a young population, higher literacy and increased awareness will result in increased number of people having membership of fitness clubs. As TBVF is one of the major players in the health club market in India with a pan India presence and has a first mover advantage it stands to gain tremendously. TBVF target markets are geographies where the population is greater than 6,00,000. TBVF gets 800-900 members within the first year of operations of the health club and 1,000 members within 18 months. The membership fee is around Rs. 13,000-15,000 p.a. and the payback period for a health club is around 3-4 years. TBVF besides having its own gyms models also has franchisees models. It has 7 franchisees & it charges 6 % - 8 % of revenues as royalty. The company plans to focus on opening more of its own gyms. TBVF in April, 2011 has announced to enter into the Tier III & Tier IV cities with the launch of HiFi Gyms. These gyms will be priced lower than the existing gyms and will have lesser facilities but will have similar operating margins as the current gyms. TBVF is opening 70 new owned gyms during FY12-FY13 across India and these are expected to contribute to the top line and bottom line. TBVF will be able to show CAGR in Revenue/PAT of 41%/38% during FY11-13. TBFV is a play on the growing healthcare market in India. It has a strong brand name and is now capitalizing, with rapid expansion. There are not any listed comparable players and thus its closest comparable peers are the consumption companies like Jubilant Food works, Page Industries, Titan Industries etc which trades at an average PE of 28 x FY13. 

At the current market price of Rs. 166.00, the stock is trading at 20.24 x FY12E and 13.07 x FY13E respectively. Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for FY12E and FY13E are seen at Rs. 8.20 and Rs. 12.70 respectively. It is expected that the company will keep its growth story intact in the coming quarters also. One could BUY TALWALKARS BETTER VALUE FITNESS LTD with a target price of Rs. 285.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 210.00
PEER COMPARISON OF TBVF WITH OTHER GYMS

METRICS	TBVF	GOLD GYM	FITNESS FIRST	FITNESS ONE
No. of Health Clubs	100	55	03	31
Size of Gym (Sq ft)	4,000 - 5,000	6,000 - 8,000	14,000 - 22,000	15,000 - 18,000
Avg.Fees/per annum (appx.)	14,000 - 16,000	16,000 - 18,000	24,000 - 35,000	16,000 - 18,000

KEY FINANCIALS	FY10	FY11	FY12E	FY13E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	66.10	102.30	148.50	203.90
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	8.20	16.00	19.80	30.70
EPS (Rs.)	3.40	6.60	8.20	12.70
PE (x)	48.30	24.50	19.90	12.80
P/BV (x)	9.50	3.10	2.70	2.30
EV/EBITDA (x)	19.00	12.20	9.10	7.00
ROCE (%)	26.40	19.00	14.50	19.40
RONW (%)	11.00	11.10	11.12	13.70

I would buy TALWALKARS BETTER VALUE FITNESS LTD with a price target of Rs. 210 for the short term and Rs. 285 for the 6 month target. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 152.75 on every purchase. 

INVEST IN GOLD THIS DHANTERAS - In a simple way !!

It’s time again for the Festival of lights – DIWALI – and we as Indians love to celebrate it. Whether it's shopping for new clothes, jewellery, sweets or decoration of homes the festival brings with it excitement and loads of enthusiasm. The first day of DIWALI is celebrated as DHANTERAS  - also known as Dhanwantri Triodasi. Dhanteras brings with it the festive mood of DIWALI. Though considered a festival of wealth, it signifies new beginnings & promises for a better future ahead.

The word DHANTERAS is a combination of DHAN means wealth & TERAS means the thirteenth night of the month in which it is celebrated. It is believed that the best day for making purchases of GOLD or any other precious metals should be done on DHANTERAS – as by doing so the goddess of money, LAKSHMI will bless the family throughout the year with prosperity.

On Dhanteras, buying precious metals like gold & silver are considered as good luck and hence major people pick Dhanteras as the day to buy gold, this day there is a splurge on gold jewellery & coins, you can see all the jewellery showrooms filled with buyers - some buy small gold coins or silver coins & some will buy according to their pockets. Apart from its festive significance, an investment in gold is also considered to bring with it a great potential to store value.

But physical gold purchases bring with them purity concerns & safety issues. Also, you stand to lose 10 % - 15 % of the value each time you send your physical gold for remarking, irrespective of whether the gold is certified or not. And there are deductions in the form of making changes. Besides, the exorbitant rates make it difficult to invest a lump sum amount. You have to budget for other expenses too during the festive season.

That’s why this DHANTERAS, there are new alternatives to invest in GOLD ETF’s

ETF’s – Exchange Traded Funds which are listed on NSE. ETF just like mutual funds collect money and invests in the market. GOLD ETF’s collects funds and invests in GOLD. They buy gold physically – so the units are backed by 0.995 finesse gold. When you invest in GOLD ETF you are allotted a unit same as in mutual fund, here 1 unit of GOLD ETF can be 1 gm or 1/2 gm of gold depending on the funds – So Gold ETF are affordable. GOLD ETF’s trade like normal equity shares on exchanges whose prices are in tandem with the domestic gold prices. If you dint have a Demat account you still can invest in GOLD FUNDS like SBI GOLD FUND, Quantum Gold Saving Fund. You can also invest in these ETFs in a Systematic Investment way (SIP) with as low as Rs. 500. JUST call your broker to buy GOLD ETF’s (List of listed ETFs are mentioned below) or just visit your nearest bank and ask for GOLD FUND (if you don’t have a trading account)

LISTED GOLD ETF

AXIS GOLD SHARE

GOLD BeES 

HDFC GOLD ETF

KOTAK GOLD ETF

RELIANCE GOLD ETF

RELIGARE GOLD ETF

SBI GOLD ETF

Dhanteras sets the festive mood for DIWALI and signifies new beginnings for a better future ahead. This SAMVAT 2068, start the festival of lights with a difference – invest in gold – invest in GOLD ETF.

WISHING ALL MY READER FRIENDS A VERY HAPPY DIWALI & A PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR ......... 

TILL THEN HAPPY INVESTING

BHAVIKK SHAH  

READ MY POST ON ALWAYS BUY GOLD 

TITAN INDUSTRIES LTD : BE MORE !!!

Scrip Code: 500114 / TITAN

CMP:  Rs. 220.00; Buy at Rs.200 - 215 levels. Short term Target - Rs. 240;
6 month Target – Rs. 285; STOP LOSS – Rs. 184.00; Market Cap: Rs. 19,531.29 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 237.75 / Rs. 140.00.

Total Shares: 88,77,86,160 shares; Promoters : 47,32,67,660 shares –53.31 %; Total Public holding : 41,45,18,500 shares – 46.69 %; Book Value: Rs. 13.01; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 5.55; Div: 250 % ; P/E: 39.59 times; Ind. P/E: 42.76; EV/EBITDA: 46.25

Total Debt: Rs. 1455.96 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 20,987.25 cr.

TITAN INDUSTRIES LTD:  The Company was founded in 1984 and is based in Bengaluru, India. Titan Industries Limited manufactures and sells in retail watches, jewelry, clocks, and eye wear primarily in India and internationally. The company provides its watches under its brand names Titan Edge, Titan Raga, Nebula, Sonata, Xylys, Fastrack. It also markets brands, such as Tommy Hilfiger, Hugo Boss, and FCUK under a licensed agreement. It also offers jewelry under the Tanishq and Goldplus brand names, as well as operates a chain of luxury jewelry boutiques under the Zoya brand. In addition, the company provides sunglasses under its Fastrack brand; and prescription eyewear, such as lenses and contact lenses. It sells frames, sunglasses, and accessories of proprietary brands and other premium brands, as well as provides optometry services. Further, the company provides precision engineering components and sub-assemblies, machine building and automation solutions, tooling solutions, and electronic sub-assemblies for use various industries, in aerospace, automotive, oil and gas, engineering, hydraulics, solar, and medical instruments. It operates approximately 665 retail stores, including approximately 311 World of Titan showrooms; approximately 124 Tanishq boutiques and Zoya stores; approximately 29 Gold Plus stores; and approximately 150 Titan Eye+ stores. The company also sells its product through departmental stores such as Shoppers stop, Central, Westside, Pantaloons & Reliance retail.  

Investment Rationale: Titan plans to aggressively expand its mass market jewellery franchisee – Goldplus. The company also plans to launch lower price jewellery using a diamond-like material – Diamantine to cater to the aspiring middle-class consumer. Titan has also tied up with Muthoot Finance to offer a new scheme — Swarna Samridhi — in the Andhra Pradesh market. Under the scheme, customers have to pay 20 % of the actual price during purchase while the remaining is to be paid through installments to Muthoot Finance. These installments can be paid between 12 - 24 months, with an 11.5 % interest rate. Customers will be given a 30-day interest-free period to repay the loan amount. Once this model stabilises it will be taken to other parts of the country as well. Also Titan is planning to enter the Indonesian market in six months through a distribution tie-up. This is in line with the company’s strategy to expand into one new country each year. Price hikes in watches and eyewear segment will protect its margins, Titan is planning to take a price hike to the extent of 4 % to mitigate the impact of input cost increases. Titan buys some of its watches and eyewear products from China. China has steadily raised labour costs over the last three years. Hence, the company will need to take price hikes to pass on the impact of the same in order to protect its margins. In Watches, Titan targets Rs. 3,500 Cr turnover by FY15E (Rs. 1,250 Cr in FY11) to be driven by network expansion, introduction of new designs as well as shift towards branded segment. Titan aspires to expand the category in Eye-wear and Accessories (currently 177 stores) segment by getting into new sub-categories. It’s targeting FY13E beak-even and believes potential margins can be higher than Watches. It intends to enter new life-style categories in medium to long term.

Outlook and Valuation:

A growing economy, increasing Per Capita income & improving lifestyle helps Titan to get continuous benefit from the shift of consumer preference from unbranded to branded jewellery. Notwithstanding the higher Gold prices, Titan continues to charge an average 22 % of Gold price as its making charge. Titan has not experienced any impact on account of government regulation regarding PAN card (for any purchase of above Rs.5 Lakhs in Jewellery, PAN number is mandatory) as its ticket size is far lower at Rs. 30-50k. As there is no specific reason to rise in Diamond prices (which are up 90% in 6 months), management expects to pass on any correction in Diamond prices to consumers. Titan sources its Diamonds from India and doesn’t hedge. Titan enjoys 10 % premium on Diamond compared to its competitors in normal scenario. Studded jewellery sales were 23 % of Jewellery revenues in 1QFY12. Titan targets 40 % by FY14E. As per Titan’s research, wedding jewellery buyer prefers larger store owing to availability of wide range of designs. Also, the service levels in large format stores are better. From Titan’s viewpoint, large format stores not only help increase sales/sq ft but also increase its market share and build a better brand image. As per management, large format stores are used as brand positioning tool. After opening a large format stores in Mumbai and Pune, 2 more are in pipeline in Hyderabad and Kolkata. As per management, large format stores take less than 2 years to break-even. Chennai store is expected to achieve its breakeven in less than 18 months. Currently out of 124 Tanishq stores - 90 are Franchisee stores. All large format stores are company owned stores. Titan offers 9 % of sales as margins to Franchisee partners in Jewellery segment. Titan also aims to tap into youth segment so as to create a loyal customer base for future. It believes Youth segment has high potential and needs to be lured via innovative designs and price points. Given the rising gold prices and anticipated potential impact on its volumes, in the medium term Titan aims to work around the price points by offering lower caratage jewellery (18c, 14c etc) and creating more opportunities of purchase. Titan’s distribution network is its biggest competitor advantage. Titan has a vision to establish Eyewear as “Function + Style” product. 25m pieces market is growing at 20-25 % per annum & unbranded market constitutes sizable chunk of the opportunity. With the market size of around Rs. 2,500 Cr this segment is highly fragmented with no national brand. Currently in Eye-wear, Titan has a network of 177 stores (90 owned) and offers 35 % of its sales as franchisee fees. Management believes that potential margins in Eyewear segment are higher than Watches. It expects margins to converge with Watch margins in 3-4 years time. At the current market price of Rs.220.00, the stock is trading at 33.33 x FY12E and 26.50 x FY13E respectively. Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for FY12E and FY13E are seen at Rs. 6.60 and Rs. 8.30 respectively. It is expected that the company will keep its growth story intact in the coming quarters also. TITAN Q2 RESULTS ARE ON 24th OCTOBER 2011. One could BUY TITAN INDUSTRIES with a target price of Rs. 285.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 240.00 

KEY FINANCIALS	FY10	FY11	FY12E	FY13E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	4,677.20	6,533.00	8,533.00	10,356.80
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	251.30	433.10	585.10	732.80
EPS (Rs.)	2.80	4.90	6.60	8.30
PE (x)	71.70	41.60	30.80	24.60
P/BV (x)	24.60	17.40	12.10	9.00
ROCE (%)	39.00	49.00	46.30	41.90
RONW (%)	35.10	46.00	44.50	40.90

I would buy TITAN INDUSTRIES LTD with a price target of Rs. 285 for the 6 month target for short term players target should be Rs. 240. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 184.00 on every purchase.

Biggest Nations of the World in Debt Trap !!!

Lots of among us from the financial markets talk about Double dip recession in United States &  Europe going burst so what’s the condition of US economy in compare with the European nations & the rest of countries.  But first some points – Deficit spending, government Debt and private sector borrowing are the unstated rule in most of the western countries, but due to financial crisis some of these nations are in worst debt condition than others. Throughout the financial crisis, many national economies have looked to their government & foreign lenders for financial support, which translates to increase in spending, borrowing & in most cases, growing national debts.

External debt is a measure of nation’s foreign liabilities, capital plus interest that the government must eventually pay.  A useful measure of a country’s debt position is by comparing gross external debt to GDP. By comparing a country’s debt to what it produces, this ratio can be used to help determine the likelihood that country as a whole will be able to repay its debts.

The debt situations of many of these countries have become so influential that countries like India also get affected. India’s April – June quarter GDP slipped to 18 month low to 7.7 %, the second consecutive quarter of sub 8 % growth. But India is somewhat in better place than its Asian peers. Positives for India includes the country’s low exports to GDP ratio, domestically financed fiscal deficit, limited exposure to foreign liabilities and a healthy banking system. 

Country	External Debt (% of GDP)	Gross External Debt	2010 GDP (Est)	External Debt/ Capita
Ireland	1,382 %	$ 2.38 trillion	$ 172.3 billion	$ 5,66,756
UK	413.3 %	$ 8.981 trillion	$ 2.173 trillion	$ 1,46,953
Switzerland	401.9 %	$ 1.304 trillion	$ 324.5 billion	$ 1,71,528
Netherlands	376.3 %	$ 2.55 trillion	$ 676.9 billion	$ 1,52,380
Belgium	335.9 %	$ 1.324 trillion	$ 394.3 billion	$ 1,27,197
Denmark	310.4 %	$ 626.1 billion	$ 201.7 billion	$ 1,13,826
Sweden	282.2 %	$ 1.001 trillion	$ 354.7 billion	$ 1,10,479
Finland	271.5 %	$ 505.06 billion	$ 186 billion	$ 96,197
Austria	261.1 %	$ 867.14 billion	$ 332 billion	$ 1,05,616
Norway	251 %	$ 640.7 billion	$ 255.3 billion	$ 1,37,476
Hong Kong	250.4 %	$ 815.65 billion	$ 325.8 billion	$ 1,15,612
France	250 %	$ 5.37 trillion	$ 2.15 trillion	$ 83,781
Portugal	223.6 %	$ 552.23 billion	$ 247 billion	$ 51,572
Germany	185.1 %	$ 5.44 trillion	$ 2.94 trillion	$ 51,572
Greece	182.2 %	$ 579.7 billion	$ 318.1 billion	$ 53,984
Spain	179.4 %	$ 2.46 trillion	$ 1.37 trillion	$ 60,614
Italy	146.6 %	$ 2.602 trillion	$ 1.77 trillion	$ 44,760
Australia	138.9 %	$ 1.23 trillion	$ 882,4 billion	$ 57,641
Hungary	120.1 %	$ 225.24 billion	$ 187.6 billion	$ 22,739
United States	101.1 %	$ 14.825 trillion	$ 14.66 trillion	$ 48,258

I would say that if US goes into recession and Europe defaults - yes in that case, we will be affected, but we will be still running with 7.00 % of GDP growth rate, whereas these countries would be on oxygen tanks with their GDP in minuses……..So money will flow looking for growth & better returns from these countries to Emerging countries like INDIA, CHINA,BRAZIL,RUSSIA. HAPPY INVESTING !!

RUPA & COMPANY LTD : A MATTER OF COMFORT !!!

Scrip Code: 533552 /RUPA

CMP:  Rs. 152.20; Buy at 145-150 levels.
6 month Target – Rs. 250; STOP LOSS – Rs. 133.40; Market Cap: Rs. 1,210.37 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 300.00 / Rs. 137.00

Total Shares: 7,95,25,560 shares; Promoters : 5,95,86,390 shares –74.93 %; Total Public holding : 1,99,39,170 shares – 25.07 %; Book Value: Rs. 21.68; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 11.73; Div: 65.00 % ; P/E: 13.21 times; Ind. P/E: 9.17; EV/EBITDA: 2.32

Total Debt: Rs. 122.28 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 1332.65 cr.

RUPA AND COMPANY LTD: Rupa was incorporated in 1985 by the Agarwala brothers. In 1995, they took over the business of Binod Hosiery, a partnership firm incorporated in 1979. They have emerged, over the years, as the largest hosiery manufacturer in India. The company produces and markets knitted garments such as innerwear, casuals wear and also footwear. The company launched Thermocot, the first branded winter wear in India. The company is also pioneered in printing of the brand name in front of the vest. This made the logo as a design element which made the product to be flaunted. RUPA is one of the earliest brands which introduced celebrity endorsement. This created huge impact and recall value. The Company has a comprehensive portfolio of product offerings in the knitted innerwear, casual wear and thermal wear segment for men, women and kids. The Company manages more than 2000 stock keeping units (SKUs), each of them for a particular brand, segment colour and size. The Company has two wholly owned subsidiaries- (1) Euro Fashion Inners International Private Limited which sells premium men’s innerwear products under the brand “EURO” and (2) Imoogi Fashions Private Limited which has recently launched apparel for kids under the brand “IMOOGI” Rupa is the number one knitwear manufacturer in India in terms of revenues, in the year ended FY11 revenues was Rs. 650 crore and is the largest knitted innerwear Company. Rupa sells more than 1.20 cr pieces of inner wear every month. Rupa’s competitive advantage lies in its owned Brands which have grown over the years, a product line range named $ across all categories have a great reputation of “Great Quality at Great Price points” and a fact that it accepts the Buyer’s specification. Due to decades-long experience in successfully launching, nurturing and managing several winning brands in a pre-dominantly unorganized industry, RUPA & Co is acclaimed by the Limca Book of Records as the largest hosiery and innerwear manufacturing and marketing company in India, for a record period of six years. Also RUPA is the first Indian company to launch bacteria-resistant briefs under its exclusive brand Euro.

Investment Rationale: From September 09, 2011, the equity shares of RUPA & Company Ltd (Scrip code: 533552) were listed only at BSE at Rs. 202.00 and is traded in the list of 'T' Group Securities (So no Intra day square off allowed). It made its all time high of Rs. 300 on BSE. RUPA & Co is also listed from 1996 onwards on Jaipur stock exchange (Scrip code: 811) and Calcutta Stock exchange (Scrip code: 028161). The company announced that it plans to launch its brands across countries in South-Asia and Africa. The company would be launching its renowned products in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, where it would offer licenses to local partners for production and marketing. After implementing the expansion plans for its plants in West Bengal and Tripura & its plans to enter in different geographies, it is expected that RUPA expects to have CAGR of 20 % on top line; PAT of up to 36 % . Rupa has well established brands name like “Rupa, Rupa- Frontline, Macroman M’Series, Air, Macroman, Euro, Bumchums and Thermocot”. These brands promoted by the company enjoy great visibility in the market and are all owned by the Company. Lovable Lingerie has not created brands but have acquired “Lovable” & “Daisy dee” from the third party. Rupa Industries has created all its Brands and owned all the brands in the company. The average advertisement spend during the last five years has been around 8 % of its sales. During FY 2010-11, Rupa & Co. Ltd had spent Rs. 52.1 cr on advertisement. This amount was incurred towards brand building and promoting the various brands of the Company. Since the Company is continuously spending on Advertising for promotion and building brands, there lies a significant brand value in the company, yet to be unlocked. To enhance effectiveness, its laboratory monitors shop-floor developments to protect established quality standards. Over the years, this commitment to cutting-edge technology has been reinforced through the following investments: Spectraflash SF450 (a high-performance spectrophotometer) with colour matching software from DATACOLOR of USA, this makes it possible for the Company to dispatch a lab-tested colour sample within 24 hours of receipt from the client.

Outlook and Valuation:

According to CRISIL Research’s estimates, the Indian inner-wear market was worth about Rs. 13,000-14,000 cr in terms of value in 2010. It is estimated to have recorded a CAGR of 12.7 % over the past 4 years (2006 to 2010) in value terms. CRISIL Research expects the Indian innerwear industry (value terms) to post a 15.9 % CAGR over the next 5 years (2010 to 2015).  In volume terms, the domestic innerwear industry grew by 6 % over the past 4 years (2006 to 2010) and is expected to grow by 9.8 % over the next 5 years (2010 to 2015). Of the total innerwear segment, men’s innerwear is estimated to be around 42 % of market share. The men’s organised segment would be around 65 % of the overall men’s innerwear market & rest with small local manufacturers. The organised segment is estimated to have a growth of CAGR of 16 %-18 % over the past five years, while the unorganised segment  will have growth of CAGR of 12 % during the same period. Increasing per capita income and higher level of quality consciousness has resulted in higher growth in the branded innerwear segment. The growth of per capita disposable income is at 6.8 % over the period FY06-10 & is expected to continue at similar rates over the next five years thereby driving growth to the innerwear sector. The demand among-st the consumers is shifting from the basic necessities to lifestyle products; mans are now preferring more on innerwear brands which offers style, color, pattern and comfort as compared to the previous times when it was sold as a commodity with limited colors and patterns.  An estimated 34 cr people (30 % of the total population) lived in Urban India by 2008. By FY2025 the number of Indians living in cities is expected to grow to 64 cr. Increase in urbanization would drive the demand for the branded innerwear of new styles and fashions to match new lifestyles. The median age of the Indian population stands at 25.1 years as compared to the world's median age of 28.1 years. The huge size of the working population with higher purchasing power implies a very large market for branded and lifestyle products. The Kids wear apparel market is expected to grow from Rs. 22,500 crs in 2009 to Rs. 33,100 crs by 2014, at a CAGR of around 8 %. Branded Kids wear still has few established players who have created a niche market for themselves and holds a large opportunity which is clearly untapped. 

Indian Knitwear Industry has been commanding a relatively higher P/E Ratio when compared to other sectors. Page Industries (Jockey Brand) is the most established listed player in the knitwear Industry. The stock discount it’s FY12E EPS by 34.6x and its FY13E EPS by 26.5x . Lovable, a newly listed player, discount it’s FY12E EPS by 43.8x and its FY13E EPS by 36.7x. RUPA could command a P/E multiple of 25x based on its FY13E EPS of Rs. 7.70 to arrive at a value of Rs. 192 per share. At the Target price of Rs. 192.00, the P/BV for FY13 comes around 6.0 based on the Book Value of Rs. 32 per share. As per Bloomberg Consensus, the P/BV of Page Industries and Lovable for FY13E comes around 11.95 and 5.5 respectively based on the Book value of Rs. 216.80 and Rs. 111.90 per share respectively.

WHATS THE BUZZzzzzz.....

There is the buzz in the market that RUPA will soon get itself listed on NSE which needs minimum paid up capital of Rs. 10 cr for listing. It’s already listed on BSE which needs Rs. 3 cr as min. paid up capital, this listing is done as per the alliance between BSE & CSE.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12E	FY13E	FY14E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	650.00	750.80	878.40	1,036.50
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	33.70	44.20	61.70	76.20
EPS (Rs.)	4.20	5.60	7.70	9.60
BVPS	21.00	26.00	32.00	41.00
ROCE (%)	22.00	24.00	27.00	26.00
RONW (%)	21.10	22.60	26.90	28.30

I would buy RUPA & COMPANY LTD with a price target of Rs. 175 for the short term and Rs. 250 for the 6 month target. As this scrip in "T" group I will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 133.40 on every purchase. ONLY HIGH RISK TAKERS SHOULD BUY THIS SCRIP

APOLLO HOSPITALS : Touching Lives !!!

Scrip Code: 508869 / APOLLOHOSP

CMP:  Rs. 522.15; Buy at Rs.518-520 levels.

Short term Target: Rs. 560, 6 month Target – Rs. 850; STOP LOSS – Rs. 478.00; Market Cap: Rs. 6,859.86 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 599.70 / Rs. 408.00

Total Shares: 13,13,77,376 shares; Promoters : 4,14,51,438 shares –31.55 %; Total Public holding : 8,99,25,938 shares – 68.44 %; Book Value: Rs. 129.93; Face Value: Rs. 5.00; EPS: Rs. 14.74; Div: 75 % ; P/E: 35.42 times; Ind. P/E: 35.68; EV/EBITDA: 18.97

Total Debt: Rs. 1575.60 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 16,070.34 cr.

APOLLO HOSPITALS ENTERPRISE LTD:  The Company was formed on 5^th December 1979, at Chennai, India, Promoted by Dr. Prathap C. Reddy (executive chairman), it belongs to the Apollo Hospitals group that pioneered the concept of corporate healthcare delivery in India. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise has over 54 hospitals of which 14 are client hospitals managed by professionals deputed from Apollo. The company has a network of 922 pharmacy outlets & approximately 8,717 beds capacity. The company’s services include cardiology, cardiothoracic surgery, orthopedics, joint replacement surgery, complex neurosurgery with critical care units. It also offers a range of diagnostic modalities, including CT scanner, X-ray, diagnostic cardiology, endoscopy systems, lab services, and blood bank. Its subsidiaries include Unique Home Health Care, AB Medical Centers and Apollo Hospitals International. Lanka Hospitals is an associated company with a 350-bed capacity in Sri Lanka. In 2006, the company acquired 51% of Imperial Cancer Hospital and Research Center & Samudra Healthcare Enterprise. It entered into a JV with British American Investment (Mauritius) for setting up a multi-specialty hospital (MSH) in Mauritius and launched India’s first exclusive healthcare center for women in Chennai. It is to get into medical tourism with Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces and will set up Tele-medicine centers in about 300 villages in Kutch. Apollo Hospitals has seven Joint Commission International (JCI) accredited hospitals within the Group located in Chennai, Hyderabad, Delhi, Kolkata, Bangalore, Ludhiana and Dhaka. Unique Home Health Care Limited (UHHCL) is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company which provides medical and pharmaceutical services including doctor's consultation, physiotherapy services directly at patients places and also offers paramedical service in hospitals to critically ill patients. As of March 31, 2011, Apollo Hospitals had 12 subsidiary companies.

Investment Rationale: 

Apollo Hospital operates with 54 hospitals with total bed capacity of 8,717 beds as on Mar 31, 2011. Apollo Hospitals Group is the only healthcare provider to be featured in the top 10 business super brands of 2011. The Indian healthcare market is one of the prominent contributors to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) having attracted large number of players- domestic as well as international – during the past few years. Highly qualified doctors and scientists, state-of-the-art technology and low costs have helped India become an attractive global destination for medical tourism, clinical studies, and research and development (R&D) programs. This sector offers massive growth potential and a chance to capitalise on its expansion, especially as the country sees a rise in the incidence of lifestyle-related diseases. A growing elderly population paired with a rise in income levels also emphasise the need for better medical facilities in the country. The market size of health sector is about US$ 5,000 Cr-a-year & is growing rapidly and is now the second-largest service- sector employer in the country, providing jobs to about 45 lakhs people directly or indirectly. According to Fitch ratings agency, the Indian healthcare sectors will double its size to US$ 10,000 Cr by 2015 and by 2020 - the Indian healthcare industry is estimated to be worth US$ 27,560 Cr. Currently, only 8.00 % of India’s GDP is spent on healthcare. India needs to spend at least US$ 80 billion more in the next five years to meet targets. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd and University College London (UCL) have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to collaborate their efforts in training and clinical research. The strategic partnership would aim to promote and conduct educational and research initiatives in health sciences. As per the data released by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), the drugs and pharmaceuticals sector has attracted 12 foreign direct investments (FDI) worth US$ 2.4 billion between April 2000 and April 2011, while hospitals and diagnostic centre have received FDI worth US$ 1.03 billion in the same period. The Indian medical tourism industry is presently at a nascent stage, but has an enormous potential for future growth and development on the back of low cost range of treatments provided by the country. According to a global report India’s share in the global medical tourism industry will reach around 3 % by the end of 2013. The report states that medical tourism is expected to generate revenue around US$ 3 billion by 2013, growing at a CAGR of around 26 % during 2011–2013. The number of medical tourists is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of over 19 % during the forecast period to reach 1.3 million by 2013. And so Apollo Hospitals is to get into medical tourism with Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces to capture this space and carries ability to do so.

Outlook and Valuation:

A growing economy, lifestyle related health issues, improving healthcare insurance penetration, government initiatives and increasing disposable income are the key drivers that will create a robust future for this industry. The industry has witnessed the establishment of world class pharmaceutical manufacturing and emergence of a vibrant biotechnology industry. Medical tourism too has been rising in recent years. To conclude, the Indian healthcare sector is on a fast growth track and Indian health care & medical sectors are on prime focus of the world investment regime. At the current market price of Rs. 522.15, the stock is trading at 29.82 x FY12E and 25.52 x FY13E respectively. Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY12E and FY13E is seen at Rs. 17.51 and Rs. 20.45 respectively. Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 19 % - 20 % over the period of time. Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 3.43 x and 3.02 x respectively for FY12E and FY13E. It is expected that the company will keep its growth story intact in the coming quarters also. I would ‘BUY’ APOLLO HOSPITALS with a target price of Rs. 560.00 for short term and for the Long term investment it will be Rs. 850.00. 

KEY FINANCIALS	FY10	FY11	FY12E	FY13E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	18,257.80	23,319.60	27,517.13	31,644.70
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	1,519.70	1,817.20	2,183.53	2,550.66
EPS (Rs.)	24.60	14.57	17.51	20.45
PE (x)	21.46	36.24	30.16	25.82
P/BV (x)	2.12	3.87	3.43	3.02
EV/EBITDA (x)	10.38	16.53	14.24	12.43
ROCE (%)	9.86	10.67	11.36	11.72
RONW (%)	16.51	19.17	20.06	20.61

I would buy APOLLO HOSPITALS with a price target of Rs. 560 for the short term for long term Rs. 850.00. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 478.00 on every purchase.