TATA MOTORS DVR LTD: A BEST DIVIDEND YIELD STOCK , A MUST BUY !!!

Scrip Code: 570001 / TATAMTRDVR

CMP:  Rs. 135.10; Buy at Rs.125-130 levels.
Short term Target: Rs. 151, 6 month Target – Rs. 177; STOP LOSS – Rs. 120.00; Market Cap: Rs. 6,510.91 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 189.90 / Rs. 79.40

Total Shares: 48,19,33,115 shares(17.90% of Sh Capital); Promoters : 1,86,00,448 shares –3.86 %; Total Public holding : 46,33,32,667 shares – 96.14 %; Book Value: Rs. 62.74*; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 3.89*; Div: 205 %* ; P/E: 57.71* times; Ind. P/E: 38.45*; EV/EBITDA: 18.27*.

Total Debt: 2,845.87 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 9,356.77 Cr.

*Being DVR a class of equity capital, Tata Motors financials are used.

TATA MOTORS LIMITED: Tata Motors was founded in 1945 and was formerly known as Tata Engineering and Locomotive Company Limited (TELCO) and changed its name to Tata Motors Limited in 2003. The company is leading manufacturer of commercial & passenger vehicles in India and is among the top 3 passenger car manufacturers in India and the world's fourth largest truck manufacturer & world's Second largest bus manufacturer. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in engineering and automotive solutions, construction equipment manufacturing, automotive vehicle components manufacturing and supply chain activities, machine tools & factory automation solutions. The company's Automotive operations include all activities relating to development, design; manufacture, assembly and sale of vehicles including all financing thereof, as well as sale of related parts and accessories. Tata Motors has operations in UK, South Korea, Thailand & Spain. The company has many subsidiaries but the most prominent among these is Jaguar-Land Rover (JLR) (a British car manufacturing company) which it acquired in 2008 at $230 Cr and turned it from a loss making company to a profit making company. JLR contributes 54 % to the company’s revenues. The company’s product portfolio ranges from the ultra low cost car Nano to the luxurious cars from JLR, from its ground breaking invention of the light commercial vehicle (LCV) the Ace to the international Prima Truck range. TATA MOTORS is compared to Mazda Motor Corporation, Suzuki Motor Corporation and Mitsubishi Corporation.

Investment Rationale:

Tata Motors is India's largest automobile company, last quarter JLR reported all-time high monthly volumes with both Land Rover and Jaguar rising 54 % and 9 %, respectively. This was been due to geographical demand fuelled by emerging markets like China, Brazil along with the developed markets of the US. In this fourth quarter, Tata Motors posted 16.7 % YoY growth in revenue in the automotive segment, whereas JLR reported a top-line growth of 65.7 % YoY. This led to an overall 44.3 % YoY growth in the company’s consolidated top-line to Rs. 50,900 Cr, EBITDA margin at JLR were at 14.6 %, the consolidated EBITDA margin improved by 30 basis points YoY to 14.1 %. EBITDA grew at Rs. 7,170 Cr. TATA MOTOR was accounted for a tax credit of Rs. 1,820 Cr on account of credit for carry forward of losses from JLR account. Profit After Tax grew by 86.1 % YoY to Rs. 4590 Cr. On Standalone basis, Tata Motors posted 14.4 % YoY growth in its top-line at Rs. 16,390 Cr. Its overall volumes grew by 18.4 % YoY, whereas average realization/vehicle declined by 3.3 % YoY on account inferior product mix skewed towards passenger cars. EBITDA margins on standalone basis improved by 0.60 % YoY to 9.6 % on account of tight control over other expenditure. As a result, EBITDA grew to Rs. 1560 Cr YoY. Profit After Tax on standalone basis grew by 22.8 % YoY at Rs. 780 Cr. The higher than expected standalone profit partially compensated for the disappointment at JLR. JLR reported 51.5 % YoY growth in revenue at ₤414.4 Cr, mainly led by a 48.2 % YoY improvement in volumes. Average realisation/vehicle declined by 2.3 % QoQ on account of inferior product mix skewed towards ‘Evoque’. Other expenses increased by ₤9 Cr on account of investment in new capacities. As an result, EBITDA margins declined by 2.40 % QoQ at 14.6 %. JLR PAT stood at ₤42.2 Cr as against ₤44 Cr in Q3FY12. This, in experts view, a big disappointment given that the volumes for the quarter were up by 11 % QoQ and currency impact was minimal. Management expects JLR volumes to be driven by launch of new Evoque in new markets, demand for newly launch Jaguar’s Model Year (MY) 2012 XF and ramp up operations in China. In Q2 FY12, Evoque was only launch in UK, Europe and US. Evoque has received buoyant response and has an order book of around 20,000 units after catering 8,000 units in Q2 FY12. It is in midst of launching Evoque in China and other developing markets, thus resulting in incremental Evoque volumes in H2 FY12. The company has started to ramp up the distribution network in China to 100 dealers by FY12E and is in advance talks with local partner for production in China. The company has largely resolved issues related to engine constraints with Ford. JLR is setting up a new engine manufacturing facility in UK, which entails an investment of £35.5 Cr. Net Automotive debt to equity stands at 0.3:1. JLR is likely to come up with two new launches i.e. Jaguar XF station wagon in Q3FY13E and new Range Rover platform in Q4FY13E. The company increased its guidance for a capex and R&D spends at JLR to ₤200 Cr as against the earlier guidance of ₤150 Cr. JLR completed an unsecured Revolving Facility totaling ₤71 Cr for 3-5 years thereby strengthening its liquidity position. Management sounded cautiously optimistic regarding volume growth at JLR in Europe and UK.

Outlook and Valuation:

The long term investors can buy the TATAMTRDVR in view of attractive valuation. The long term holders of ordinary shares of Tata Motor can switch to TATAMTRDVR. The Tata Motors DVR shares carry 1/10th of voting rights and shareholders are entitled to a 5 % higher dividend than ordinary shares in lieu of surrendering voting rights. Tata Motors DVR trades at a discount of 45.2 %. The average discount for the DVR to Tata Motors ordinary share was 36.7 % since inception. The average discount for the DVR share over the last two years has been 40.5 %. At the Current Market Price of Rs. 135.10, the DVR is trading at a 40 % discount to Tata Motors’ ordinary share which is at Rs. 224.55. At the current levels, the probability of the discount narrowing is higher. On Some Of The Parts basis the value of standalone business comes at 9x FY13 adjusted EPS of Rs. 5 to arrive at Rs. 45 and for JLR it comes at 5x EV/EBITDA to arrive at Rs. 183 and the valued of the investment book of the company comes at 0.2x BV for unquoted investments and market value of quoted investments to reach Rs. 9/share and arrived at our target price of Rs. 275. One can BUY TATA MOTOR DVR at all lower levels for better returns. It has outperformed the broader market by 6 % on an annual basis. Globally DVRs trends to trade between 10 % - 15 % discounts to its Equity shares, TTM DVR currently trades at 40 % discount to its Equity shares. One should buy TTM DVR at 40 % - 45 % discount to its EQ SH & Sell when DVR arrives at 10 % - 15 % discount to its EQ SH. TTM DVR can be a good ‘BUY’ with a target price of Rs.151 for the short term. Expect discount to the Equity shares reduce to at least 30 % over next one year given the attractive valuations and increasing free float. For the shorter term it can be a good BUY, with a price target of Rs. 151.

SOTP valuation (FY2013E)

BUSINESS SUBSIDIARY	Value per Share(Rs.)
Core Business (9x FY13E Stand.EPS)	45
JLR (5.0x FY13E EV/EBITDA)	183.00
Tata Daewoo	2.00
Tata Motor Finance	3.00
Tata Technologies	4.00
TML Drivelines	4.00
Value of Other Subsidiaries	14.00
Value Post Discount (20 % Holding discount)	11.00
Value of Investments (0.2 x BV of Investments)	9.00
TOTAL VALUE PER SHARE	275.00

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12E	FY13E	FY14E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	1,22,127.90	1,65,654.50	1,89,786.00	2,07,532.00
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	9,042.50	12,522.40	13,811.70	14,699.00
EPS (Rs.)	28.40	37.50	41.10	44.10
PE (x)	9.70	7.30	6.70	6.30
P/BV (x)	4.60	2.80	2.80	2.70
EV/EBITDA (x)	6.20	4.30	4.20	3.70
ROE (%)	66.10	47.90	41.80	43.80
ROCE (%)	22.10	23.50	21.40	22.50

I would buy TATA MOTOR LTD DVR with a price target of Rs. 151 for Medium to Long term and Rs. 177 for the Short term players. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 120.00 on every purchase.
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PIPAVAV DEFENCE & OFFSHORE ENGINEERING LTD : BUY ON DIPS !!!

Scrip Code: 533107 / PIPAVAVDOC

CMP:  Rs. 81.00; Buy at current levels & On DIPS.

Medium to Long Term Target – Rs. 100; STOP LOSS – Rs. 74.50; Market Cap: Rs. 5,598.70 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 92.70 / Rs. 50.10

Total Shares: 69,11,98,388 shares; Promoters : 29,95,76,180 shares –45.00 %; Total Public holding : 39,16,22,208 shares – 43.44 %; Book Value: Rs. 24.90; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 1.16; Div:-- % ; P/E: 69.82 times; Ind. P/E: 24.60; EV/EBITDA: 35.48.

Total Debt: 2,020.75 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 7,952.92 Cr.

Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company Ltd: Pipavav Defence and offshore engineering Company is promoted by SKIL Infrastructure was formerly known as Pipavav Ship Dismantling and Engineering Limited and changed its name to Pipavav Shipyard Limited in April 2005 which again changed to its current name on 29^th September,2011. Pipavav Defence and Offshore Limited were incorporated in 1997 and are based in Mumbai, India. The company engages in the defence ship-building, and construction of offshore oil and gas assets, as well as provision of commercial ship-building and repairs, and heavy engineering services in India. Pipavav is the only private shipyard in India to have license to produce frontline warships from the Govt. of India giving it significant opportunities in the defence space. The company also offers very large crude carriers, suezmax tankers, aframax tankers, capesize bulk carriers, panamax bulk carriers and tankers, handymax and handysize bulk carriers and tankers, and product and chemical tankers; and specialized vessels, such as LNG carriers, LPG carriers, reefers, containerships, offshore support vessels, ferries, and dredgers. It also provides offshore platforms, which include rigs, jackets, and single buoy mooring systems; naval vessels; and ship repair services, such as refit/dry docking, a-float repair, and conversions. Pipavav Defence & Offshore Engineering Limited is the largest shipyard in India and the 5th largest in the world in terms of its size (400000 dwt). Pipavav’s dry dock capacity is larger than top 5 yards in India put together. The Company has two units, one Special Economic Zone (SEZ) unit spread over around 95 hectares of Land and another Export Oriented Unit (EOU) Unit spread over around 103.92 hectares of Land. The Company is engaged in the Pipavav Shipyard project. Pipavav Shipyard is a shipbuilding, ship repair and offshore fabrication complex being constructed by the Company at Pipavav in the State of Gujarat, India. The complex is spread over an aggregate area of 198.92 hectares (approximately 491.53 acres), comprising a SEZ unit spread over 95 hectares (approximately 234.75 acres) and an EOU spread over 103.92 hectares (approximately 256.79 acres). The Pipavav Shipyard is situated on the west coast of India on the Dubai-Singapore sea route. The company is compared with ABG Shipyard Limited locally and globally with Boustead Heavy Industries Corporation Berhad and Coastal Contracts Bhd.

Investment Rationale:

India is set to spend Rs. 60,000 Cr over the next five years on improving its military infrastructure. Due to the 'Buy Indian, Make Indian' policy put in place by the Ministry Of Defence, a large part of this sum will go to domestic companies. Even in case of imports, there is an offset clause that benefits domestic companies. For any defense contract for capital purchases of over $60 million (Rs.324 Cr), the foreign vendor is required to allocate 30 % of the contract value to Indian players, primarily in the defense, internal security and civil aerospace sectors. According to the Ministry of Defense (MOD), there could be an offset opportunity of $15 billion over the next five years this also envisages a greater role for the private sector, which should benefit established players like PIPAVAV & it enjoys first mover advantage and best-in-class infrastructure in the ship-building segment. It operates the second largest ship-building capacity in the world. PIPAVAV uses modular construction technology, with two 600MT Goliath cranes, which enables it to reduce the construction and delivery time of vessels. Further, it enjoys strong strategic partnerships with several international players, which should aid robust warship order booking in the near future. MOD's growing stress on indigenization and its Mazgaon JV should boost order intake. PIPAVAV's current capacity stands at $1.7 billion (in terms of revenue potential) are likely, to shoot up to $2.5 billion once the second dry dock becomes operational by 2014. The private sector defence business is at a nascent stage in India & with the various government initiatives encouraging indigenization and private sector participation, it is believed that the defense orders offers immense opportunity to private sector players. PIPAVAV is well placed ahead of the curve to exploit this opportunity in the next few years with its global-sized assets and best-in-class tie-ups. Also, PIPAVAV offers the only credible large-size exposure for investors to India's defence business.

Outlook and Valuation:

India imports 70 % - 75 % of its defence requirement from the foreign nations. The government aims to reduce its dependence on imports by encouraging indigenization, with the introduction of the ‘Buy Indian, Make Indian’ category in its defence procurement policy. The increasing stress on indigenization is also the result of several bitter experiences that India has had in sourcing defence equipment from overseas. For instance, India had once placed an order for a Scorpion submarine with France. The order was executed with a delay of four years and the eventual cost was four times its original cost. Similarly, the Indian Navy’s order for a Gorshkov Class Aircraft Carrier witnessed a price escalation of 3x. Such experiences led Defence Ministry to initiate the policy of ‘Buy Indian, Make Indian’. The government has also suitably modified its policies to allow greater participation by domestic private sector companies. The Ministry Of Defence (MOD) has directed public sector companies to enter into partnerships with private players that have the requisite capabilities and foreign collaborations. For instance, the MOD has decided to liquidate the piling orders of government shipyards to private players like PIPAVAV and L&T. PIPAVAV operates the second largest shipbuilding capacity in the world, capable of constructing vessels up to 400,000DWT. Hyundai Heavy, the largest shipbuilder has a total capacity of 10,00,000 DWT. PIPAVAV intends to become the world's largest shipbuilding company after completing the conversion of its second wet dock facility to a dry dock. It has a shipbuilding, ship repair and offshore fabrication complex spread over 750 acres with 720 meters of sea front and 685 meters of outfit quay, including two Goliath cranes of 600 tons each, which service the dry dock and the adjoining pre-erection berth, enabling PIPAVAV to handle up to 1,200 tons of pre-outfitted ship blocks. A host of other technologically advanced infrastructure makes PIPAVAV one of the most modern shipyards in the world. Any new private player wishing to enter this sector would need at least 8 to 10 years to set up such a kind of facility as compared to PIPAVAV. The Land acquisition, required environment clearances, construction, license procurement and technology tie-ups can take an average of 10 years to the new player who wishes to enter this sector. This gives an established player like PIPAVAV an added advantage. PIPAVAV uses modular construction technology, which enables it to reduce the construction and delivery time of vessels, as it is able to simultaneously work on different orders. It has a separate shipbuilding facility, which breaks down a complete ship into separate blocks for construction, which include cutting, forming, blasting, painting, steel stacking, treatment and welding. The dock is used to only assemble mega blocks with the help of two installed Goliath cranes. PIPAVAV is well placed/ahead of the curve to exploit the massive opportunity that India's defence sector offers in the next few years. It has globalsized assets and best-in-class tie-ups. Also, PIPAVAV offers the only credible large-size exposure for investors to invest into Indian defence sector. Hence, the Fair value for PIPAVAV DEFENCE, based on replacement cost method comes at Rs. 6,700 Cr which translates in to Rs.100/share. The company can post an EPS of Rs.0.8 for FY12 and Rs.1.2 for FY13E. The Board meeting will be held on 30th May 2012 to consider and approve the audited financial results of PIPAVAV DEFENCE & OFFSHORE ENGINEERING LTD for the year ended 31st March 2012.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY10	FY11	FY12E	FY13E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	629.40	860.00	1,820.00	2,460.00
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	-48.20	40.00	50.00	80.00
EPS (Rs.)	0.00	0.60	0.80	1.20
PE (x)	0.00	127.90	95.50	62.70
P/BV (x)	3.20	2.90	2.60	2.30
EV/EBITDA (x)	00.00	43.70	18.20	12.80
ROE (%)	00.00	2.30	2.90	3.90
ROCE (%)	0.00	4.90	7.70	9.10

I would buy PIPAVAV DEFENCE & OFFSHORE ENGINEERING LTD with a price target of Rs. 100 for Medium to Long term. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 74.50 on every purchase.

READ PREVIOUS REPORT ON PIPAVAV - visit here Click

ARE MARKETS FOR FEW !!!

Hi friends,

I got some alerting data on Markets - which are on data dated 2010 - there were 31 lakhs registered customers/investors on NSE from which only 2 lakhs (6 %) of these had done 90 % of the total volume on NSE. Looking minutely at this data we get that - 50 % of the exchange turnover was done by only 450 customers, 60 % of the exchange turnover was done by only 1500 customers, 70 % of the exchange turnover was done by only 8700 customers, and 80 % of the exchange turnover was done by only 41,000 customers.

Let’s have a look at DERIVATIVES - which is shocking that only 3.77 % dominates nearly 90 % of total F&O Turnover. There were 5.5 lakhs customers who do DERIVATIVES trading from which only 3.77 % controls nearly 90 % of the total derivatives turnover. THIS IS DISGUSTING !!!

After knowing that only a few runs the cash & F&O segment more shocking is that only a few scrips are concentrated for the trading, there were only 10 scrips which contributed 24 % of the Cash segment volume, whereas only 10 scrips contributed 38 % of total derivatives turnover.

WE SAY THAT OUR MARKETS HAVE MATURED ..IS THIS THE MATURITY ....ARE WE RUNNING MARKETS FOR FEW PEOPLE ...????
ARE THE NEWS FLOWS OR REPORTS TO FOOL INNOCENT INVESTOR WHO PUTS HIS HARD-EARNED MONEY...WHO'S GOING TO LOOK INTO THIS... I AM SURE THAT EXCHANGES & THE MARKET REGULATOR MUST BE HAVING FAR MORE DEEP DATA THAN THIS....AND THAT's THE REASON BUY FUNDAMENTALLY STRONG COMPANIES..WHICH DEFINITELY GIVES YOU GREAT RETURNS IN THE LONG RUN !!!
WE NEED TO BE ALERT.....

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ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD: SHOULD BE INVESTORS CHOICE !!!

Scrip Code: 532538 / ULTRACEMCO

CMP:  Rs. 1368.70; Buy at current levels.
Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 1,566; STOP LOSS – Rs. 1260.00; Market Cap: Rs. 37,508.08 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 1544.70 / Rs. 914.00

Total Shares: 27,40,65,301 shares; Promoters : 17,36,05,057 shares –63.35 %; Total Public holding : 10,04,60,244 shares – 36.65 %; Book Value: Rs. 478.25; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 89.25; Div: 60 % ; P/E: 20.10 times; Ind. P/E: 15.33; EV/EBITDA: 14.96.

Total Debt: 4,144.60 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 41,652.68 Cr.

ULTRATECH CEMENT LIMITED: ULTRACEMCO was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Mumbai, India. It was formerly known as Ultra Tech Cemco Limited and changed its name to ULTRATECH CEMENT Ltd on October 2004. It’s a subsidiary of Grasim Industries Ltd from Aditya Birla Group. The Company is engaged in the business of cement and cement related products. It manufactures and markets Ordinary Portland Cement, Portland Blast Furnace Slag Cement and Portland Pozzalana Cement. The Company also manufactures ready mix concrete (RMC). UltraTech Cement is an exporter of cement clinker. The Company has an annual capacity of 23.1 million tons. The Company has 11 integrated plants, one white cement plant, one clinkerisation plant in the United Arab Emirates, 15 grinding units - 11 in India, two in the United Arab Emirates, one in Bahrain and Bangladesh each and five terminals - four in India and one in Sri Lanka. In the 2011, its wholly owned subsidiary, UltraTech Cement Middle East Investments Limited (UCMEIL) acquired ETA Star Cement together with its operations in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Bangladesh and acquired management control. On July 1, 2010, Samruddhi Cement Limited (Samruddhi) amalgamated with the Company.  The Company's subsidiaries include Dakshin Cement Limited, UltraTech Cement Lanka (Pvt.) Ltd. and UltraTech Cement Middle East Investments Limited. The company is compared to Ambuja Cements Ltd, ACC Limited and Rain Commodities Limited domestically.

Investment Rationale:

ULTRA TECH CEMENTS limited is in the process of setting up 4.8 MT plant at Raipur, Chhattisgarh and 4.4 MT plant at Malkhed, Karnataka along with a captive power plant of 75 MW and waste heat recovery plant of 45 MW. These new capacities are likely to get operational by Q1FY14. This will increase company's capacity by nearly 9.2 MT, taking it to a total capacity of 59 MT. Revenue growth of the company during Q4FY12 was boosted by improvement in cement prices as well as volume growth on a sequential basis. Costs remained high during the quarter but higher cement prices led to margin improvement on sequential and yearly basis. Revenues improved by 19 % for Q4FY12 and 37.5 % for the full year FY12 led by improvement in cement realizations and cement dispatches over last year. Operating margin for Q4FY12 and FY12 also witnessed an improvement due to higher prices. Margins stood at 23.7 % and 22 % for Q4FY12 and FY12 respectively as compared to 22.7 % seen during Q4FY11 and 19.2 % for full year FY11. Net profit performance was boosted by healthy revenue growth; lower than expected interest outgo and higher other income. UltraTech (UTCEM) delivered 40 % YoY and QoQ PAT growth to Rs. 860 Cr. EBITDA per MT stood at Rs. 1,018. White cement, wall care putty and RMC revenues, cement realizations for the company stood at Rs. 4,624 per tonne during Q4FY12 and Rs. 4,460 per tonne during FY12 as against Rs. 4,330 per tonne and Rs. 3,746 per tonne during Q4FY11 and FY11 respectively. Combined grey cement and clinker sales volume stood at 11.54MT during Q4FY12 as against 10.37 MT during Q4FY11.  Export cement volumes stood at 0.18MT approx. $55 per tonne and clinker export volumes stood at approximately 0.27MT approx. $45 per tonne. The full year volumes stood at 40.73 MT as against 35.26MT in FY11, registering an improvement of 15.5 % over last year. Volumes are expected to further improve to 44MT for FY13 due to improvement in demand going forward. Domestic cement volumes are expected to be nearly 44 MT for FY13 for the company. White cement volumes are also likely to remain robust going forward and thus revenues of Rs. 20,700 Cr for FY13 is expected also it is expected that the industry cement demand to grow to 8 % and 10 % respectively during FY13 - FY14 vs. 4.5 % and 6.5 % during FY11 - FY12 period led by continued retail demand as well as by pre - general election (in 2014) led infrastructure demand from the end of FY13E. However, industry’s utilization is expected to remain under 80 % until FY14E. It is expected that the pending CCI’s investigation report to remain an overhang on the stock in near term.  

Outlook and Valuation:

Cement sales in India grew by 4.5 % and 6.5 % YoY during FY11 - FY12 period and expected the same to improve to by 8 % and 10 % respectively during FY13 - FY14 vs. 4.5 % and 6.5 % during FY11 - FY12 period led by continued retail demand as well as by pre - general election (in 2014) led infrastructure demand from the end of FY13E. However, industry’s utilization is expected to remain under 80 % until FY14E. Demand in the southern region has buoyed over the last five months- which in turn has helped Ultra Tech Cement’s volume and realisation growth. However, with more than 60 MT of new capacities expected to get commissioned during FY12 - 14E period; it is believed that the industry utilisation to hover below 80 % until FY14E. Cement manufacturers have shown maturity in passing on the incremental cost pressure through supply discipline which is expected to continue over the next few quarters until demand recovers. An estimate EBITDA per MT of Rs. 898 and Rs. 944 during FY13 - 14E is expected. The on-going cement cartelization inquiry by Competition Commission of India (CCI) against about 40 cement companies including Ultra Tech Cements is expected to be completed by this month and CCI is expected to come out with its findings during April – May 2012 and if found guilty of cartelization, cement companies could be fined up to 50 % of their FY12E profits which for Ultra Tech Cements could be around Rs. 1200 to 1300 Crs which would be around 6.5 % to 7 % of its total sales. Ultra Tech Cements is expected to deliver strong EBITDA per MT performance similar to that posted during the current quarter & thereafter the seasonal weakness (monsoon driven weak demand and cement prices) would weigh on the stock performance for the subsequent two quarters. While, it is seen that profitability of Ultra Tech Cements to improve going forward, the current valuation multiples already discounts the same. The clarity on the CCI investigation report should be a major trigger for the stock. In line with the multiples ascribed to its peers ACC and Ambuja Cements, Ultra Tech Cements valuation comes at 9.5 x its FY13 – FY14E EBITDA thereby implying a target price of Rs. 1,566 per share. This price implies a replacement cost of US$ 165 per MT. EBITDA/tonne of Rs. 991 for FY13 translating into EBITDA margins of 22.5 % for FY13 is expected. At current price of Rs. 1368.70, the stock is trading at 15.95 x P/E and 8 x EV/EBITDA on FY13 estimates and one should ACCUMULATE the stock and should use declines in the stock to buy with a long term view with the key risk of the out come from CCI imposing fine on cement companies on alleged cartelization. One can buy Ultra Tech Cement Limited with a target price of Rs. 1,566.00 for Medium to Long term investment.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12	FY13E	FY14E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	13,316.30	18,313.20	20,077.50	22,693.70
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	1,406.00	2,446.80	2,350.30	2,489.30
EPS (Rs.)	51.30	89.30	85.80	90.80
PE (x)	28.60	16.40	17.10	16.10
P/BV (x)	3.80	3.10	2.70	2.30
EV/EBITDA (x)	14.80	9.40	9.40	8.50
ROE (%)	19.90	20.80	16.90	15.50
ROCE (%)	13.70	14.90	12.60	11.80

I would buy UltraTech Cements LTD with a price target of Rs. 1,566 for Medium to Long term. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 1259.20 on every purchase.

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MARCH IIP -3.50 % v/s 4.10 % :IS THIS WE CALL THE GROWTH ????

IIP DATA COMES AS A SHOCK !!!

MARCH 2012 Index of Industrial Production (IIP) which is declared by Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation came at SHOCKING -3.50 % which is complied by Central Statistic Office. The index is a composite indicator that measures the short term changes in the volumes of the industrial production.

Three sectors that constitute the index are Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity. The monthly growth rates of these three sectors for the month are for Mining (-)1.3%, Manufacturing (-)4.40% and for Electricity 2.70 %, the ministry added that as per “use – Based “ classification there has been negative growth in capital goods (-21.3%) and intermediate goods (-2.1 %) and positive growth has been achieved in basic goods (1.1%), consumer durables (0.2%) and consumer non-durables (1.0%).

The contraction was driven by particularly poor performance of the manufacturing sector, in line with weak exports that month. It is believed that April saw a turnaround, but until this is confirmed, sentiment will be weak. The data increases the odds of another rate cut, is negative for the INR, and should push INR OIS rates and bond yields down. IIP, will change the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) policy stance. RBI will not cut rates till July, but may have to start after that. Expect another 50-75 basis points rate cut in this year

BACKGROUND

• India's economy probably expanded 6.9 % in the 2011 - 12 fiscal year that ended in March, its slowest pace in three years.
• The RBI, which cut interest rates in April for the first time in three years, has forecast growth at 7.3 % in 2012 - 13.
• Expansion in manufacturing sector picked up pace in April, supported by bulging order books, but slower output growth and increasing price pressures dampened sentiment, a business survey showed.
• Growth in the services sector accelerated a touch in April thanks to a rise in new business, and optimism hit its highest level since June 2011, a survey showed last week.
• Headline inflation slowed marginally to 6.89 % in March helped by a softening in prices of manufactured goods, even as food inflation shot up. Analysts expect April inflation at 6.70 %.
• The Reserve Bank of India slashed its main lending rate - the Repo rate - by a sharper-than-expected 50 basis points in April to help revive growth. 

FACEBOOK : THE MUCH AWAITED IPO !!!

Facebook has released a revised S-1 filing which list additional information on IPO.

The IPO would value Facebook at $74.8 billion(Rs.3,96,440 Cr), based on total of 2.138 billion Class A & B shares outstanding after the offering, assuming a $35 share price.

Total shares offered will be 33,74,15,352 at a proposed price range of $28-$35. It is expected that they could fix price at $31.50/sh. 

Facebook estimates that the net proceeds from sale of the Class A common stock that are offered will be approximately $5.6 billion (Rs.29,680 Cr), assuming an IPO price of $31.50/sh.

Primary shares (proceeds going to company) will be $180 million (Rs.954 Cr), Selling stockholders shares will be getting $157.4 million (Rs.834.22 Cr) these proceeds will not go to the company.

Mark Zuckerberg (28) the founder of Facebook will as Chairman & CEO, exercise as outstanding stock option with respect to 6,00,00,000 shares of Class B common stock and will then offer 3,02,00,000 of those shares as Class A common stock in Initial Public Offering. Facebook expects that the substantial majority of the net proceeds Mr. Zuckerberg will receive upon such sale will be used to satisfy taxes that he will incur in connection with the option exercise.

Zuckerberg would control over 57.30% of the capital stock voting power following the IPO. In February Facebook reported Earnings of $1 billion (Rs.5,300 Cr) on the Sales of $3.71 billion (Rs. 19663 Cr), Facebook reported Earnings per share of $0.43 (Rs.22.79) Dec 2011. Facebook reported $381 million in Income from Operations; Net income of $137 million (Rs.726 Cr), Facebook reported Earnings per share of $0.09 (Rs.4.77) 31st March 2012.

Facebook says it has $3.91 billion (Rs.20,723 Cr) in cash as of March 31, 2012. It estimates it will have $9.511 billion (Rs.50,408.30 Cr) in cash assuming a $31.50 IPO prices.

Facebook debts are $1,587 million (Rs.8,411.1 Cr) which will remain same after IPO, Total Stockholder’s Equity is at $5,597 million (Rs.29,664.10 Cr) which will be $11,198 million (Rs.59,349.40 Cr) after IPO.

The main purpose of IPO is to create a public market for the Class A common stock and thereby enable future access to the public equity markets by the company and its employees, and obtain additional capital, and facilitate an orderly distribution of shares for the selling stockholders. Facebook intends to use the net proceeds from IPO for working capital and other general corporate purposes, they may use some of the net proceeds to satisfy a portion of the anticipated tax withholding and remittance obligation related to the initial settlement of company’s outstanding RSU’s, they may also use a portion of the proceeds for acquisitions of complementary business, technologies or other assets. 

The shares are expected to be priced on May 17 evening, with trading beginning on May 18, 2012. Facebook to list its stock on Nasdaq under the ticker "FB", Facebook will be compared with GOOGLE, GROUPON, ZYNGA. At the assumed market capitalization of close to $100 billion (Rs.5,30,000 Cr) FB will be competing AMAZON.COM, CISCO SYSTEMS in terms of market capitalization.
Facebook would have Price to Earnings of about 80 times its 2011 earnings. Its valuation is 19 times its revenue, which is close to 21 times revenue valuation of its faster- growing competitor LinkedIn. Experts believe that these are nosebleed multiples and Facebook needs to good growth to support such absurd multiples.

TATA STEEL: CREATING A VALUE FOR NATION !!!

Scrip Code: 500470 / TATASTEEL

CMP:  Rs. 461.85; Buy at Rs.445 - Rs.455 levels.
6 month Target – Rs. 495; STOP LOSS – Rs. 418.60; Market Cap: Rs. 44,855.53 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 619.00 / Rs. 332.10

Total Shares: 97,12,14,450 shares; Promoters : 30,45,14,362 shares –31.35 %; Total Public holding : 66,67,00,088 shares – 68.64 %; Book Value: Rs. 497.09; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 70.46; Div: 120 % ; P/E: 6.55 times; Ind. P/E: 7.30; EV/EBITDA: 5.82.

Total Debt: 28,301.14 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 80,273.78 Cr.

TATA STEEL LTD:  Tata Steel Limited was established by Mr. Jamsetji Nusserwanji Tata in 1907. It was formerly known as The Tata Iron and Steel Company Limited and changed its name to Tata Steel Limited in 2005. Tata Steel Limited is a diversified steel producer. It has a global presence in 50 markets and manufacturing operations in 26 countries. Tata Steel’s principals products include flat rolled products of Non-Alloy Steel of a width of 600 millimeter and hot rolled coils of thickness 1.66 millimeter; tubes/pipes of circular section with outer diameter up to 114.3 millimeter, not cold rolled & flat rolled products of iron or non alloy steel of width of 600 millimeter or more, cold rolled (cold-reduced), not clad, plated or coated of a thickness of 0.5 millimeter or more but less than 3 millimeter. Company also provides steel for different industries, which include construction, automotive, aerospace, consumer goods, materials handling, energy and power, rail, engineering, ship-building, packaging, and security and defense. Tata Steel manufactures and processes steel, which includes hot-rolled coil through to high-gloss, pre-painted perforated blanks, wire rod and wire, sections, plate, bearings and tubes.  Its major branded products are Tata Steelium, Tata Shaktee, Tata Tiscon, Tata Pipes, Tata Bearing and Tata Agrico. In 20 October 2009, TATA STEEL won bid to acquire Anglo – Dutch steelmaker CORUS at $7.6 billion. On January 30, 2007, Tata Steel purchased a 100 % stake in the Corus Group at 608 pence per share in an all cash deal, totally valued at USD 12.04 Billion. The deal is the largest Indian takeover of a foreign company and made Tata Steel the world's fifth-largest steel group. In September 27^th 2011, Tata Steel merged Centennial Steel Company Ltd with itself.  TATA STEEL’s production facilities include those in India, UK, Netherlands, Thailand, Singapore, China and Australia. TATA STEEL is compared with SAIL locally and with JFE Holdings Incorporated (Japan) & Angang Steel Company Ltd (Hong Kong) globally.

Investment Rationale:

Over the years, Tata Steel’s domestic operations have exhibited robust performance on the back of high raw material integration and superior product mix. Domestic steel product prices have increased by Rs. 1,500- Rs. 2,000/ton over the last three months, coupled with a decline in coking coal costs and higher volumes which would lead to margin expansion in Q4 FY12. The 2.9 metric ton per annum expansion is likely to be commissioned in April 2012 and would require some time to stabilize and integrate the whole complex. It is expected that the new capacity will contribute additional 1million tons of saleable steel each over the next two years. Stable steel prices, superior product mix coupled with lower coking coal prices YOY would lead to higher EBIDTA/ton in FY13. The standalone operation is expected to witness an EBIDTA CAGR of 20.6 % over FY12-14. This would generate nearly Rs. 16,200 Cr of operating cash flow over the same period and would fund major part of the capex for its Odisha steel project. The spot prices in Europe have recovered to US$70 - $80/ton since January. However, this would impact Tata Steel’s realisations only from March 2012, as any change in spot prices will impact Tata Steel’s realisation with a lag. It is expected that the realisations to increase by US$25/ton QoQ in Q4 FY12. And with an uptick in steel prices and a decline in raw material costs (both iron ore and coking coal), the company would post positive EBIDTA in Q4 FY12. However, the performance would be restricted by one-offs like impairment charges and restructuring costs. On the back of various restructuring process, revival in European demand and higher steel prices YoY, an EBIDTA/ton of US$50/ton in FY14 is accepted. After the stabilization in FY13, it is expected that the plant will add a further 1mtpa in FY14, leading to a volume CAGR of 15.8 % over the period FY12-14. Tata Steel India can deliver 1.73mn tons in Q4 FY12, 7.7mn tons in FY13 and 8.8mn tons in FY14. Besides exporting to few countries, the company targets to sell incremental steel in the domestic market. This would be in the niche market of value added products, where it is already among the leaders. Out of the total outlay of Rs. 16,000 Cr, the company has already spent Rs. 2,500 Cr of capex till date and is expected to spend Rs. 5,000 Cr in FY13E. The company has reduced its manpower from 7,223 to 6,683 at the end of December 2011 and is expected to reduce it further to 5,750 by FY12-end. It is expected that the EBIDTA/ton to be US$30/ton in Q4 FY12 and remain around this level for FY13. On the back of various restructuring processes initiated by the company in FY12 & revival in European demand and higher steel prices YOY, an EBIDTA/ton of US$50/ton in FY14 is accepted. Tata Steel recently reported its 4QFY2012 production and sales numbers; Company's 4QFY2012 crude steel production grew by 2.6 % YoY to 1.8mn tonnes and its sales volume grew by 3.3 % YoY to 1.7mn tonnes. For FY2012, the company's crude steel production and sales volume increased by 3.9 % and 3.4 % YoY to 7.1mn tonnes and 6.6mn tonnes, respectively. These numbers are broadly in-line with the market’s expectations. 

Outlook and Valuation:

Steel players in India had hiked flat steel product prices by Rs. 1,000/ton each since Jan 2012. However, due to subdued market conditions and some resistance from the consumers, the steel players have reduced prices over the last one month. In the case of long product category, the increase in steel prices has been steady and has been accepted by the market. Indian long steel prices has raised by Rs. 1,500 - 2,000/ton in Q4 FY12 due to improving demand from the infrastructure space and production cuts taken by the smaller players. On account of the high iron ore and coal costs, small steel players have taken production cuts as it has become unviable to them to operate. This would help the larger producers like Tata Steel in gaining market share and maintain prices at current levels. Steel prices will decline marginally during the year on the back of lower raw material costs and subdued demand. The impact of lower steel prices globally would be reduced due to the increase in import duty on HRC and the depreciation of the rupee against the dollar. The commissioning of new capacities during the year would also add to the pressure on steel prices in the domestic market. On an average, blended steel realization to decline 2 % YoY is expected in FY13 and then strengthens to 3 % YoY in FY14. The domestic operations would continue to be the earnings driver for Tata Steel over the next two years. Even though near term earnings in Corus would remain under pressure due to one-off items, it is expected that the Corus will deliver steady EBIDTA/ton over FY13-14. Tata Steel is expected to report strong earnings over the next two years due to the factors like the impact of new 2.9mtpa capacity, impact of restructuring exercise in Europe, like the benefits from overseas raw material projects. After the recent correction in the stock over the last six months, Tata Steel is trading at a discount to its peers. The Indian business of Tata Steel at a 6.5 x EV/EBITDA multiple and the European business at 4.5 x, is justified as the Indian operation is self-sufficient in terms of raw materials (100 % iron ore and 50 % coking) and deserves a decent premium vis-à-vis Corus, which is not self sufficient. Stock continues to offer an attractive opportunity given the distress valuations of European operations at EV/tone of US$200 & the strong domestic operations and increased raw material self-sufficiency from current 33  % to 50 % in iron ore and 18 % to 23 % in coking coal (by FY13 end). At the current market price of Rs. 461.85, the stock is trading at a PE of 17.83 x FY12E and 10.71 x FY13E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 25.90 in FY12E and Rs. 43.10 in FY13E. One can buy TATA STEEL with a target price of Rs. 495.00 for Medium to Long term investment.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12E	FY13E	FY14E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	1,18,753.10	1,28,344.10	1,23,146.60	1,32,914.20
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	5,933.70	2,512.60	4,185.50	6,710.50
EPS (Rs.)	61.90	25.90	43.10	69.10
PE (x)	7.40	17.80	10.70	6.70
P/BV (x)	1.20	1.10	1.10	1.00
EV/EBITDA (x)	5.80	7.20	6.00	5.10
ROE (%)	20.30	6.60	10.10	15.10
ROCE (%)	8.70	4.40	6.40	9.00

I would buy TATA STEEL LIMITED with a price target of Rs. 495 for Medium to Long. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 418.60 on every purchase.
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