CAIRN INDIA: STRIDING AHEAD !!!

 

Scrip Code: 532792 / CAIRN

CMP:  Rs. 339.15; Buy at current levels.
Short term Target: Rs. 370, 6 month Target – Rs. 415; STOP LOSS – Rs. 312.00; Market Cap: Rs. 64,539.18 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 401.10 / Rs. 249.30

Total Shares: 190,29,68,633 shares; Promoters : 112,27,13,999 shares –59.00 %; Total Public holding : 78,02,54,634 shares – 41.00 %; Book Value: Rs. 167.12; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 0.11; Div: 30.00 % ; P/E: 00.00 times; Ind. P/E: 11.77; EV/EBITDA: 00.00.

Total Debt: 1,350.00 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 67,730.45 Cr.

CAIRN INDIA LTD: CAIRN INDIA LTD was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Gurgaon, India. The company was former subsidiary of Cairn UK Holdings Limited. Cairn India is an exploration and production company, a leading player in the oil and gas industry in India. Cairn India has been focusing on south Asia, especially India where it has interests in 15 blocks. The firm made more than 30 oil and gas discoveries in India and was listed in January 2007 through an IPO after it spun off from its parent Cairn Energy Plc. Vedanta Resources Plc along with its subsidiary SESAGOA acquired the controlling stake of 51 % at $8.6 billion in Cairn India at Rs.405/sh. SESAGOA brought in $3 billion for 20 % and the rest 31 % was by Vedanta. Cairn holds interest in 9 oil and gas block/fields located in the Baremer basin, the Mumbai offshore basin, the Kerala – Konkan basin, the Palar-Pennar basin, and the Cambay basin in India, as well as 1 block in the Mannar basin off the coast of northwestern Sri Lanka.The company also operates a pipeline and storage terminal. Cairn has working interest in 14 Exploration & Production blocks in Ravva and Cambay blocks which produces 51.4k boepd (Cairn WI 14k bpd). Cairn India sells its oil to refineries; and gas to public sector undertakings and private buyers. Cairn has commissioned three trains at MPT and pipeline section from MPT to Salaya, through which it is delivering crude to refiners. Government of India had granted Cairn India some oil & gas fields through Production Sharing Contract. The company had interest in oil & gas blocks/fields which include PR-OSN-2004/1, KG-ONN-2003/1, KG-OSNsn-2009/3 & MB-DWN-2009/1. CAIRN INDIA is compared with Oil India ltd and ONGC locally and with Japan Petroleum Exploration Company Ltd internationally. 

Investment Rationale:

In Jan'12, Cairn has commenced production from the Bhagyam oilfield in Rajasthan on approval granted by GOI. The benefit of the same will be reflected in Q4FY12. Further, Cairn expects to ramp-up the crude oil production from Bhagyam field to approved plateau rate of 40 Kbopd. According to the Company's management Mangala field, the biggest of the 18 discoveries in Rajasthan block, can produce 150 kbopd as against 125 Kbopd. Bhagyam, the second biggest field in the Rajasthan block, can produce 60 Kbopd as opposed to current approved peak output of 40 Kbopd (50 %), while Aishwariya oilfield can contribute 25 Kbopd as compared to earlier 10 Kbopd (150 %) and other fields can produce 65 Kbopd, subject to required approvals. As on 31st Dec'11, gross cumulative Rajasthan development capital expenditure was at US$ 3,323 Mn. Management has stated that further investments are planned to augment processing capacity and pipeline infrastructure. Recently, Mr. Jaipal Reddy (India's oil minister) has suggested that he will take actions to boost investment and raise oil & gas production. It is believed that this will speed up the process of approvals for production ramp up from Rajasthan fields, this should be significantly positive for Cairn India. Also, India has cut down its crude oil sourcing from Iran. This also demands for higher domestic oil production along with other diversified sources. Cairn's higher crude oil production at elevated international crude oil price along with weakening rupee will partly mitigate the negative impact of increased oil cess announced in the 2012-13 budgets. Cairn India has approached the petroleum minister, seeking support in making a case for a rollback of cess hike to the finance ministry, as per media reports. Any immediate rollback of cess looks unlikely. Also, the recent correction in the stock price discounts most of the negatives. In FY13, it is expected that refineries like RIL, Essar Oil and IOC will increase their crude oil off take from Cairn India (Rajasthan oil fields). With the commissioning of Essar Oil's expanded capacity the demand of Cairn's crude oil will increase. Further, Cairn has been pursuing with the Directorate- General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) for permission to sell crude oil to RIL's second 29-mt refinery at Jamnagar, which is a SEZ refinery. Cairn India’s dividend policy announcement will be a key trigger & will abate concerns regarding the utilization of cash. The Company's management has indicated to announce a sound dividend policy, they may announce special dividend in the coming result declaration. It is also believed that there is a possibility of upward revision in the company's Rajasthan crude oil reserves potential which the market has not discounted yet. Further, any significant reserves declaration from Sri Lankan block can add major value to the Company. Currently, the block is in E&D phase so the same is yet not been priced in. However, experts are bullish on the growth prospects of Sri Lankan block.

Outlook and Valuation:

The recent correction in stock price of Cairn India is mainly due to hike in cess rate by GOI and this will impact earnings. However, Cairn's higher crude oil production from Rajasthan block at elevated international crude oil price along with weakening rupee will partly mitigate the negative impact of increased oil cess. The Company has approached the petroleum minister, seeking support in making a case for a rollback of cess hike & any immediate rollback of cess looks unlikely. In the Union Budget 2012-13, GOI increased the cess on crude oil production to Rs. 4,500/mt from Rs. 2,500/mt earlier. The earlier revision in cess happened during the Budget 2006-07. This increase in cess is attributed to indexation by the government. Although, cess is cost recoverable while calculating the profit petroleum for the upstream companies, the absolute impact in earnings would be still substantial. CAIRN INDIA has announced its production figures for the JAN - MAR quarter, the average daily gross operated production was of 1,80,293 Barrels of Oil Equivalent (BOE) for the quater, with working interest production at 1,07,292 Barrels of Oil Equivalent Per Day (BOEPD). Cairn India announced an oil discovery in the Nagyalanka - SE-1 well, which is is the second discovery in the onshore KG-ONN-2003/1 block in the Krishna - Godavari basin. Testing is underway and the discovery will be appraised further for establishing commerciality. At the current market price of Rs. 339.15, the stock is fairly valued at 5.3 x EV/EBIDTA and trading at a PE of 6.00 x FY13E. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 44.40 in FY12E and Rs. 56.70 in FY13E. One can buy CAIRN INDIA Ltd with a target price of Rs. 370.00 for Medium to Long term investment. CAIRN INDIA to declare its results on April 20th 2012.

SOTP valuation (FY2013E)

BUSINESS SUBSIDIARY (FY13E)	Value per Share (Rs.)
MBA (DCF)	286.00
Ravva and Cambay basin (EV/BOE 11x)	9.00
Barmer Hills (EV/BOE 8x - 50% disc. to MBA)	11.00
Other exploratory (EV/BOE 4x-75% disc. to MBA)	36.00
TOTAL EV	342.00
NET DEBT	(25.00)
EQUITY VALUE (Rs.)	367.00

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12E	FY13E	FY14E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	10,277.90	13,013.50	16,429.90	16,399.90
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	6,334.40	8,693.50	11,095.20	9,415.70
EPS (Rs.)	32.40	44.40	56.70	48.10
PE (x)	10.90	7.90	6.20	7.30
P/BV (x)	1.70	1.50	1.20	1.20
EV/EBITDA (x)	8.00	5.50	3.80	3.90
ROE (%)	17.10	19.80	21.20	16.50
ROCE (%)	16.30	19.10	20.50	16.20

I would buy CAIRN INDIA Ltd with a price target of Rs. 370 for Medium to Long term. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 312.00 on every purchase.
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COAL INDIA : A HOT FAVORITE STOCK OF INVESTORS !!!

Scrip Code: 533278 / COALINDIA

CMP:  Rs. 341.20; Buy at Rs.320 - Rs. 330.
Short term Target: Rs. 370, 6 month Target – Rs. 410; STOP LOSS – Rs. 313.90; Market Cap: Rs. 2,15,514.35 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 422.35 / Rs. 293.60

Total Shares: 631,63,64,400 shares; Promoters : 568,47,27,960 shares –90.00 %; Total Public holding : 63,16,36,440 shares – 10.00 %; Book Value: Rs. 30.77; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 13.03; Div: 39 % ; P/E: 23.14 times; Ind. P/E: 19.08; EV/EBITDA: 42.21.

Total Debt: 1,370.43; Enterprise Value: Rs. 2,16,884.78 cr.

COAL INDIA LIMITED: CIL was incorporated in 1973 in Kolkata, India. It was formerly known as Coal Mines Authority Limited. CIL is a leading public sector undertaking engaged in coal mining & selling coal fines in India and is working on establishing its footprint globally through acquisitions. Company operates 471 mines in 21 coalfields across 8 states in India, which includes 163 open cast mines, 273 underground mines & 35 mixed mines – open & underground mines. CIL operates through its 9 wholly owned subsidiaries, of which 1 subsidiary is engaged in exploration and feasibility study analysis. Its subsidiaries include Eastern Coalfields Ltd (ECL), Bharat Coking Coal India Ltd (BCCL), Central Coalfields Ltd (CCL), Northern Coalfields Ltd (NCL), Western Coalfields Ltd (WCL) and South Eastern Coalfields Ltd (SECL). CIL has total reserves of 64.3 billion tons and proved reserves of 52.4 billion tons, of which extractable reserves stands at 21.7 billion tons. The company also provides middlings used by fuel plants, brick manufacturing units, cement plants, industrial plants, as well as for power generation. CIL coal fines/coke fines are used in industrial furnaces, as well as for domestic purposes. It serves primarily power, steel, cement, and fertilizer industries.

Investment Rationale:

Coal India signed an agreement with the five recognized union to hike 25 % wages till 2016 which is expected to add about Rs. 4,000 Cr to the company’s annual wage bill. The company has already made provision on wage for Rs. 333 Cr in Q3 FY12 which will take total employee cost to Rs. 5,622 Cr during the quarter. It accounted Rs. 750 Cr during Q2FY12 for the wage hike. CIL has shifted from Ultra Heat Value mechanism to Gross Calorific based value pricing mechanism which will be based on international pricing system. The company does not expects increase in price through the shift in price mechanism. However the application is in process and the company is likely to review on its pricing this April, this will likely to improve the profitability of the company. Investors are keenly watching the production data of CIL in the last quarter Q4. The company has target of 430mn ton for FY12 lower from its earlier target of 460mn tons due to bad weather condition and delay in land clearance. If the company will achieve this target it would be still lower than previous year’s output of 431.32mn tons. However, given the current rate, it seems difficult for the company to meet its target. In the first nine months of the current year the company’s production output was only 291.24mn ton as compared to 299.45mn tons in nine months of previous year. Prime minister office’s (PMO’s) recent announcement to increase the fuel supply agreement (FSA) trigger level from the earlier 50 % to 80 % for power sector this would warrant substantial expansion in CIL’s volumes. Subsequent to PMO’s announcement, it is expected that there will be speedy clearances for the projects (117 projects with capacity of 200mtpa) stuck due to hazy policies of MoEF like ‘Go, No-Go’ attitude. It is expected that the existing 5- 6 % CAGR growth trajectory of COAL INDIA to accelerate to 7 % - 8 % during the 12th Five year plan. Management at various forums guided that increased supplies to power sector would lessen its e-auction quantity from the existing 12 % to 8 % of the total quantity by the end of FY17. Given the highly profitable profile of e-auction, it would require CIL to take an increase of 4 % in realisation of its (excl. e-auction) volumes. The increase seems marginal in the light of the fact that CIL has not increased prices for the power sector (consumes 75 % of the volumes) during the last two and a half years. An increase in prices by 10 % - 12 % during Q4FY12 is expected from CIL which is enough to drive the EBITDA growth by 10 % - 12 % in FY13.

Outlook and Valuation:

During the quarter the company’s production grew marginally by 0.7 % Y-o-Y to 114.6mn ton compared to 113.7mn ton in Q3FY11 due to a day’s strike on account of bonus negotiation. Further, off take also declined by 0.1 % to 110.3mn ton compared to 110.4mn ton in previous year. This led revenue to grow only by 21 %Y-o-Y to Rs. 15,349.20 Cr in Q3FY12 v/s R. 12,686.70 Cr in Q3FY11 despite the volume growth and price hike in February last year. EBITDA grew by 33.6 % Y-o-Y to Rs. 4,542.10 Cr in Q3FY12 v/s Rs. 3,399 Cr in Q3FY’11. Despite steady off take, the company managed to improve its margins with low operational cost and price hike. Profitability grew by 54 % Y-o-Y to Rs. 4,037.70 Cr in Q3FY12. Coal India plans to pay Rs. 5,684.70 Cr as dividend to the government in 2011- 12 more than double the amount paid last fiscal. Backed by the 6 % growth in volumes and 5 % increase in blended realisations, CIL’s earnings are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15 % during FY12-14, despite sharp increase in the wage cost. On the basis of  DCF, assuming risk free rate of 9%, beta of 0.58 and assuming cost of equity at 12.7 % and terminal growth rate of 5.2 % on the future cash flows, I arrive at an intrinsic value of Rs. 360/share.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12E	FY1E	FY14E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	50,233.60	59,420.20	65,569.40	71,237.50
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	10,867.40	14,614.50	16,175.60	19,012.90
EPS (Rs.)	17.20	23.10	25.60	30.10
PE (x)	18.80	14.00	12.60	10.70
P/BV (x)	6.10	4.70	3.70	3.00
EV/EBITDA (x)	11.90	9.10	7.60	6.00
ROE (%)	36.80	38.00	32.90	30.90
ROCE (%)	33.20	35.10	30.70	29.10

I would buy COAL INDIA LTD with a price target of Rs. 370 for Medium to Long term and Rs. 410 for the Short term players. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 313.90 on every purchase.
READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

HERO MOTOCORP LTD: A HERO OF EVERY PORTFOLIO !!!

Scrip Code: 500182 / HEROMOTOCO

CMP:  Rs. 1945.25; Buy at Rs.1925 - 1935 levels.

Short term Target: Rs. 2,000, 6 month Target – Rs. 2160; STOP LOSS – Rs. 1770.50; Market Cap: Rs. 38,844.21 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 2249.70 / Rs. 1375.75

Total Shares: 19,96,87,500 shares; Promoters : 10,42,59,490 shares –52.21 %; Total Public holding : 9,54,28,010 shares – 47.79 %; Book Value: Rs. 148.03; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 113.99; Div: 5250.00 % ; P/E: 17.06 times; Ind. P/E: 16.58; EV/EBITDA: 14.18.

Total Debt: 1491.16 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 40,019.37 Cr.

HERO MOTOCORP LTD:  Hero Motocorp Ltd was incorporated in 1984 and is based in New Delhi, India. The company changed its name to Hero Motocorp from Hero Honda Motors Ltd in July 2011. Hero MotoCorp Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of motorcycles in India. It provides a range of two wheeler products, including motorcycles and scooters; and spare parts. The company markets its products under various brands, including CD Dawn, CD Deluxe, Splendor Plus, Splendor NXG, Passion and Passion Pro, Passion Plus, Glamour, Super Splendor, Splendor PRO, Achiever, Glamour FI, Hunk, CBZ X-treme, Karizma, Pleasure, and Karizma ZMR. It offers its products through a network of dealers, service and spare parts outlets, and dealer-appointed outlets. The Company's bikes are manufactured across three manufacturing facilities. Two of these are based at Gurgaon and Dharuhera, which are located in the state of Haryana in northern India. The third manufacturing plant is based at Haridwar, in the hill state of Uttrakhand. The Company was a joint venture between India's Hero Group and Japan's Honda Motor Co where by the promoter the munjals bought the 26 % stake of Honda for Rs. 3,841.83 Cr in July 2011. The Company offers Achiever in 135 cubic centimeter segment. In the 150 cubic centimeters and above the Company offers brands like Hunk, CBZ X-treme, Karizma and the Karizma ZMR. It also offers a 100 cubic centimeter scooter, Pleasure. The company is compared to Bajaj Auto Limited, TVS Motor Company Limited and Ashok Leyland Limited.

Investment Rationale:

Hero Motocorp Ltd's new promoter structure now is Hero Investment Pvt Ltd (HIPL) which holds 43.33 % in the company. Hero MotoCorp’s management expects volume momentum to moderate by 10 % - 12 % in Q4FY12. Despite of slowdown seen in both rural & urban markets, rural demand is still more resilient. It is expected that in FY13 volume growth could be at 10 % + levels. Inventory levels were around 1 to 1.5 weeks at dealers end. December inventory has moved up slightly to 2 to 2.5 weeks. Initial 3-4 days of sales post 15 Jan have been very encouraging. However, sustainability of sales needs to be monitored during the quarter. Management does not expect any meaningful saving in commodity costs going ahead and also Company has direct imports (largely cast wheel) of 1.5 % - 2 % (USD denominated) and 14 % - 15 % indirect imports (in both USD/Yen). Some pressure is expected from vendors as they are normally compensated with a lag. The R&D ramp up in terms of talent, international tie ups for technology etc are on track and so the Management maintains a time frame of 3 - 3.5 years (from time of separation from HONDA) for full capability to be able to launch its own products. Capacity is expected to reach 7 mn units by FY12 end. There is a scope for 15 % increase in capacity next year by further de-bottle necking. Haridwar capacity ramp up is on track and is expected to touch 9,500 units per day by mid FY13 (from 8,000 currently). Company expects that there would be strong exports momentum which should continue going ahead. The strategy of strengthening market share in existing markets like South Asia, Latin America and penetrating in new markets in the next 2-3 quarter is on track. Management maintained its vision of 1 mn units of exports in the next 5-6 years. The company maintains its target of achieving 5,000 active touch points by FY12 end from 4,500 in FY11.  All touch points have servicing capability while some of them have dealerships. Royalty would not exceed 5 % of sales on new models (beginning with Impulse). The current arrangement of technological tie ups for new products is till 2017 and so the company has the freedom to modify existing models. It is expected that the demand scenario will moderate slightly going ahead after strong volume growth over the past three years, mainly due to macroeconomic concerns. It is expected that HMCL to slightly under perform the industry’s growth during the period, due to increasing competition in the industry. HMCL commenced expansion plans at its Haridwar plant in Uttarakhand, with the first plant commissioned in April 2008, with an initial capacity of 500,000 units. The company has increased its total installed capacity to 6.15 mn units in FY2011 from 5.4mn units in FY2010, with capacity of 2.25 mn at Haridwar and 1.95 mn each at Dharuhera and Gurgaon. HMCL plans to further expand its capacity to 7 mn units by FY2012 through de bottle necking at existing plants. As a result of capacity expansion, HMCL will be able to meet the increasing demand and, as such, is expected to post a volume CAGR of 12.7 % over FY2011-13E. The Haridwar plant also avails tax benefits, including a 100 % excise exemption for 10 years and a 100 % income tax exemption for the first five years and 30 % for the next five years. Besides the Haridwar plant, two plants in Gurgaon also enjoy tax benefits.

Outlook and Valuation:

HMCL commenced expansion plans at its Haridwar plant in Uttarakhand, with the first plant commissioned in April 2008, with an initial capacity of 500,000 units. The company has increased its total installed capacity to 6.15mn units in FY2011 from 5.4mn units in FY2010, with capacity of 2.25mn at Haridwar and 1.95mn each at Dharuhera and Gurgaon. HMCL plans to further expand its capacity to 7mn units by FY2012 through de-bottlenecking at existing plants. As a result of capacity expansion, HMCL will be able to meet the increasing demand and, as such, is expected to post a volume CAGR of 12.7 % over FY2011-13E. The Haridwar plant also avails tax benefits, including a 100 % excise exemption for 10 years and a 100 % income tax exemption for the first five years and 30 % for the next five years. Besides the Haridwar plant, two plants in Gurgaon also enjoy tax benefits. It is believed that the benefits of lower raw-material costs will be negated due to higher advertising and R&D expenses that HMCL intends to incur going ahead. Further, due to increased competitive activity in the two-wheeler segment, HMCL’s market share will also remain under pressure. HMCL’s current valuations factors in the strong 31 % earnings CAGR that the company is likely to register over FY2011-13E. At the current market price of Rs. 1,945.25, HMCL is fairly valued at 13.43x FY2013E earnings (historical multiple – 15x). The stock is currently trading at a PE of 16.18 x FY12E and 13.43 x FY13E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 120.20 in FY12E and Rs. 144.80 in FY13E. One can buy HEROMOTOCORP with a Medium to Long term investment with the price target of Rs. 2160 and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 2000.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY10	FY11	FY12E	FY13E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	15,770.20	19,258.50	23,468.90	26,608.60
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	2,231.80	2,007.70	2,399.60	2,892.50
EPS (Rs.)	111.80	100.50	120.20	144.80
PE (x)	17.50	19.40	16.30	13.50
P/BV (x)	11.30	13.20	10.80	8.60
EV/EBITDA (x)	12.50	14.80	12.80	9.90
ROE (%)	61.40	62.50	73.00	71.00
ROCE (%)	72.90	59.30	60.20	75.40

I would buy HERO MOTOCORP LTD with a price target of Rs. 2160 for Medium to Long term and Rs. 2,000 for the Short term players. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 1770.50 on every purchase.


READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE