INDIA GDP GROWTH : A PREDICTION

Predictions about India GDP growth
Allianz, a major financial and insurance services provider has estimated that in 2009-10 fiscal gross domestic product of India would be growing at 6.5 percent. It says that even though economic recession has hit almost every financial market in world, emerging Asian economies like India would be growing, all be it at a slow pace.

Allianz says that growth of gross domestic product of India would be decidedly slow at first two quarters of financial year 2009-10 but would pick up in last two quarters. They have expressed that since there are sufficient and efficient capital and foreign exchange controls in place in India, it would be able to tide past difficulties like capital movements that can be extremely volatile.

Economic surveys conducted in India during February of 2008 fiscal had reported that gross domestic product of India would be growing at a rate of 8.7 percent. This was supposed to follow up impressive statistics of 2006-07 fiscal, when rate of growth of gross domestic product was 8.7 percent.

Much of this optimism was based on increase of rates of savings and investments in domestic financial circuit. It was predicted that aggregate gross domestic product of India in 2007-08 financial year would be approximately $10,00,82,03,62,968.85. It was expected that this growth would enable Indian economy to grow to one trillion dollar mark in near future.

In terms of nominal exchange rate, gross domestic product of India was supposed to be $1.16 trillion dollars in 2007-08 financial year. Per capita income in terms of nominal exchange rate was around $1,021.

Actual situation of India GDP growth
Actual picture is pretty different from what has been predicted. It is being assumed that in present scenario of economic recession, growth rate of India GDP would slip, if India's national government does not introduce economic stimulus packages.

NSE : Market methodology changes to FREE FLOAT METHOD

The National Stock Exchange’s index NIFTY will shift to free float capitalisation from market capitalization method from June 26th 2009. Under this method, the weightage of each of the 50 component stocks in the index will be proportionate to the amount of free float.

Free float is the number of shares of company in public hands- stocks that is “floating free”, that which is not with promoters.

Share holdings held by investors that would not, in the normal course come into the open market for trading are treated as 'Controlling/ Strategic Holdings' and hence not included in free-float.

In specific, the following categories of holding are generally excluded from the definition of Free-float:

Holdings by founders/directors/ acquirers which has control element

Holdings by persons/ bodies with "Controlling Interest"

Government holding as promoter/acquirer

Holdings through the FDI Route

Strategic stakes by private corporate bodies/ individuals

Equity held by associate/group companies (cross-holdings)

Equity held by Employee Welfare Trusts

Locked-in shares and shares which would not be sold in the open market in normal course.

The remaining shareholders would fall under the Free-float category.

Free-float factor is a multiple with which the total market capitalization of a company is adjusted to arrive at the Free-float market capitalization. Once the Free-float of a company is determined, it is rounded-off to the higher multiple of 5 and each company is categorized into one of the 20 bands given below. A Free-float factor of say 0.55 means that only 55% of the market capitalization of the company will be considered for index calculation.

Globally, most indices are moving to this system as it is perceived to be more representative of market action. Reliance Industries retained its position as the top weighted stock due to its high free float component (50%), ONGC 3.5% from 8%, NTPC to 1.9% from 6%, Infosys 7% from 3.77%, ICICI Bank 6.45% from 2.96%, Larsen & Toubro 6.41% from 3.27%, SAIL 0.77% from 2.34%. All the fund managers tracking the NIFTY made changes accordingly.

RIL's WEIGHT A HEADHEACHE TO FUND MANAGERS

India Index Services and Products (IISL), the NSE subsidiary which manages benchmark indices such as NIFTY came to know about difficulties to manage RIL weightage in index by fund managers. RIL is the largest market capitalization and with the highest weightage in Sensex & Nifty at 17.7% & 13.3% respectively.

The stock has being biggest contributor to the recent rally accounting to 861 pnts of the 3859 point Sensex up move. Fund managers both local & foreign, are taking a big hit in their portfolios for being significantly underweight on the counter, most of them are forced underweight by 500 bps. As per the SEBI rules local fund managers cannot bet more than 10% of their portfolio on a single stock. Foreign fund managers are bounded by mandates from their investor to stick to similar limits. Thus an average fund manager has lost nearly 2% returns on the underweight on just this stock. RIL’s size has begun to create problems for fund managers and is bound to increase. NSE is making the Nifty a free-float index which will add to its weight and also with completion of RPL merger will add up to 2% weightage. And it is possible that this bluechip giant may end up with a weight of 20%-plus on indices if it uses up its surplus cash for acquisitions. And suppose it does, India will have KOREA like situation where SAMSUNG INDUSTRIES accounts for a fifth or 20%-plus of the market. The most impact is that fund manager’s performance is benchmarked with Nifty and they cannot give more than 9.9% weightage to any stock, they have the risk of underperformance, and also none of the fund managers can take sells call, even if they have negative view on the stock because they are already underweight. A free market call on Reliance Industries is not possible and thus gives RIL a premium valuation.

In the recent rally, the stock outperformed the Sensex by huge margin. While the Sensex rose 47% between March 09 and May 13, the bluechip rose to 68%. This in turn, has taken its weightage up substantially on Nifty from 11% to 13.3% & on Sensex from 15.5% to 17.7%. In such situation, it depends on which way the index moves. If index is going up, then there is disadvantage. But when it fall the fund managers outperform because of under weight.

The only option is either to change the rules of 10% or follow MSCI and apply the 10/40 rule. This 10/40 methodology was introduced by MSCI indices in 2002. Accordingly the maximum weight of securities of a single issuer cannot exceed 10% of market value of the index, and the sum of the weights of all issuers representing more than 5% of the market value of the index cannot collectively exceed 40%.

Suzlon ups stake in REpower (see co. details) to 90.72 pc

Wind turbine maker Suzlon Energy said its stake in Germany based REpower Systems AG has increased to 90.72 per cent, with the acquisition of Martifer Group's 14.4 per cent stake in the company.

Suzlon has completed "the acquisition of Martifer Group's stake in REpower Systems, with a final payment of 87.6 million euro (Rs 574.48 crore)," Suzlon Energy said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.

With the conclusion of this transaction, Suzlon now holds approximately 90.72 per cent of shares and voting rights in REpower Systems, it further said.

Prior to this transaction, Portugal-based Martifer had held about 14.4 per cent stake in the Hamburg-based REpower Systems and Suzlon acquired it in a two part payment plan.

The purchase of Martifer's stake in REpower by Suzlon was agreed in February 2007 at the time of the joint bid by Suzlon and Martifer.

The Pune-headquartered firm had paid 65 million euro as the first tranche in December last year, hiking its stake in REpower to 73.1 per cent.

This is final tranche of the 270 million euro that Suzlon had agreed to pay to buy Martifer's 22.4 per cent stake in REpower Systems.

Today, shares of Suzlon Energy closed at Rs 125.70, up 2.95 per cent on the BSE ,and on NSE Rs.125.45, up 3 per cent with the volume of 79,853,861 shares traded on NSE and 24,097,763 shares on BSE.

SUZLONs London GDR scrip code(bloomberg)- SUEL:LI; Luxemburge GDR scrip code(bloomberg)- SUEL:LX.

Today REpower Systems AG is trading at 110.65 euros a share with a-

Market Cap: 1,015.439 million Euros.
Share capital: 9,177,039
Earnings: 5.750
Price/Earnings: 19.412.
Last Dividend: 0.571 Regular Cash.
52-Wk High-(09/01/08): 240.370.
52-Wk Low-(10/27/08): 50.520.
Initial listing: March 26, 2002

Global leader VESTAS has 203,704,103 shares & Share size in DKK 1.00. Currently trading at 391.5 DKK.
Market Cap.: 79,750 MDKK
Market Cap.: 10,711 MEUR
1.00 DANISH KRONE (DKK) = 8.9584 INDIAN RUPEE (INR)

Sensex from 1k to 21k : A HISTORY

1000, July 25, 1990

On July 25, 1990, the Sensex touched the magical four-digit figure for the first time and closed at 1,001 in the wake of a good monsoon and excellent corporate results.

2000, January 15, 1992

On January 15, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 2,000-mark and closed at 2,020 followed by the liberal economic policy initiatives undertaken by the then finance minister and current Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh.

3000, February 29, 1992

On February 29, 1992, the Sensex surged past the 3000 mark in the wake of the market-friendly Budget announced by the then Finance Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh.

4000, March 30, 1992

On March 30, 1992, the Sensex crossed the 4,000-mark and closed at 4,091 on the expectations of a liberal export-import policy. It was then that the Harshad Mehta scam hit the markets and Sensex witnessed unabated selling.

5000, October 8, 1999

On October 8, 1999, the Sensex crossed the 5,000-mark as the BJP-led coalition won the majority in the 13th Lok Sabha election.

6000, February 11, 2000

On February 11, 2000, the infotech boom helped the Sensex to cross the 6,000-mark and hit and all time high of 6,006.

7000, June 20, 2005

On June 20, 2005, the news of the settlement between the Ambani brothers boosted investor sentiments and the scrips of RIL, Reliance Energy, Reliance Capitaland IPCL made huge gains. This helped the Sensex crossed 7,000 points for the first time.

8000, September 8, 2005

On September 8, 2005, the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark 30-share index -- the Sensex -- crossed the 8000 level following brisk buying by foreign and domestic funds in early trading.

9000, November 28, 2005

The Sensex on November 28, 2005 crossed the magical figure of 9000 to touch 9000.32 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange on the back of frantic buying spree by foreign institutional investors and well supported by local operators as well as retail investors.

10,000, February 6, 2006

The Sensex on February 6, 2006 touched 10,003 points during mid-session. The Sensex finally closed above the 10K-mark on February 7, 2006.

11,000, March 21, 2006

The Sensex on March 21, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 11,000 and touched a life-time peak of 11,001 points during mid-session at the Bombay Stock Exchange for the first time. However, it was on March 27, 2006 that the Sensex first closed at over 11,000 points.

12,000, April 20, 2006

The Sensex on April 20, 2006 crossed the 12,000-mark and closed at a peak of 12,040 points for the first time.

13,000, October 30, 2006

The Sensex on October 30, 2006 crossed the magical figure of 13,000 and closed at 13,024.26 points, up 117.45 points or 0.9%. It took 135 days for the Sensex to move from 12,000 to 13,000 and 123 days to move from 12,500 to 13,000.

14,000, December 5, 2006

The Sensex on December 5, 2006 crossed the 14,000-mark to touch 14,028 points. It took 36 days for the Sensex to move from 13,000 to the 14,000 mark.

15,000, July 6, 2007

The Sensex on July 6, 2007 crossed the magical figure of 15,000 to touch 15,005 points in afternoon trade. It took seven months for the Sensex to move from 14,000 to 15,000 points.

16,000, September 19, 2007

The Sensex scaled yet another milestone during early morning trade on September 19, 2007. Within minutes after trading began, the Sensex crossed 16,000, rising by 450 points from the previous close. The 30-share Bombay Stock Exchange's sensitive index took 53 days to reach 16,000 from 15,000. Nifty also touched a new high at 4659, up 113 points.The Sensex finally ended with its biggest-ever single day gain of 654 points at 16,323. The NSE Nifty gained 186 points to close at 4,732.

17,000, September 26, 2007

The Sensex scaled yet another height during early morning trade on September 26, 2007. Within minutes after trading began, the Sensex crossed the 17,000-mark . Some profit taking towards the end, saw the index slip into red to 16,887 - down 187 points from the day's high. The Sensex ended with a gain of 22 points at 16,921.

18,000, October 09, 2007

The BSE Sensex crossed the 18,000-mark on October 09, 2007. It took just 8 days to cross 18,000 points from the 17,000 mark. The index zoomed to a new all-time intra-day high of 18,327. It finally gained 789 points to close at an all-time high of 18,280. The market set several new records including the biggest single day gain of 789 points at close, as well as the largest intra-day gains of 993 points in absolute term backed by frenzied buying after the news of the UPA and Left meeting on October 22 put an end to the worries of an impending election.

19,000, October 15, 2007

The Sensex crossed the 19,000-mark backed by revival of funds-based buying in blue chip stocks in metal, capital goods and refinery sectors. The index gained the last 1,000 points in just four trading days. The index touched a fresh all-time intra-day high of 19,096, and finally ended with a smart gain of 640 points at 19,059.The Nifty gained 242 points to close at 5,670.

20,000, October 29, 2007

The Sensex crossed the 20,000 mark in just 14 days all because of huge FII's money inflows into large cap stocks making almost all of the to touch their highs. Index touched intraday high of 20,024 on the basis of DII's & Mutual Funds buying.

Huge buying in midcaps, small caps stocks like RNRL, RPL, ISPAT IND, IFCI etc

21,000, January 9, 2008

Sensex was in the range of 19,200 to 20,000 for 2 months and on 9th January 2008 the index touched to 21,000. This was on an excitment of Reliance Power IPO at Rs.440/sh.

Large caps such as Reliance Ind went to Rs.3050.50, Rel.Cap to Rs.2,695.50, Rel.Infra to Rs.2,654.35, Grasim Ind to Rs.3,400, Aditya Birla Nuvo to Rs.2,456.90.

The very next day Sensex touch to its all time high of 21,206.

On October 27, 2008 Sensex touched its lows of 7697.39 down 1003.68 points & Nifty at 2252.75 in intraday giving a closing of 8,509.56 down nearly 64% from its high due to global recession and selling pressures & 

MAY 18,2009 A two thousand point rally on the Sensex within sixty seconds was the day on which the world saw the largest intra day rise on any index anywhere in the world. The first time was after the Sensex hit the upper circuit, the second time it hit the upper circuit after two hours the roof almost came off!

SEBI had no choice but to suspend trading for the day. Investors were jubilant all day around the BSE.