MOIL (MANGANESE ORE INDIA LTD) : IPO SUBSCRIBE

Price Band- Rs.340 - Rs.375, Face Value- Rs. 10 , 5 % Disc to Retailers

Issue opens on- 26th NOV 2010;

Issue closes on- 1st DEC 2010,

QIB Book- 1,64,64,000 shares (50 % of Net issue)

Retail Book -  1,15,24,800 shares (35 % of Net issue)

Non-Institutional Bidders - 4939200 shares (15 % Net issue)

Employee Reservation- 6,72,000 shares (2 % of Total issue)

Net Public Offer - 3,29,28,000 shares (98 % of Total issue)

Total No. of Shares offered- 3,36,00,000  shares or 20 % of Paid up capital

Equity Shares outstanding after the Issue- 16,80,00,000 Sh

Equity Shares outstanding prior Issue- 16,80,00,000 Sh

Total Size of the Issue- Rs.1142.4 Crs - Rs.1260 cr. 

Standalone Result as on – 31st March 2010

Total Income - Rs. 1,087.853 cr

Net Sales - Rs. 969.395 cr

Net Profit Before Tax - Rs. 706.793 cr

Net Profit After Tax – Rs. 465.62 cr

Share Capital – Rs. 168 cr

Reserves & Surplus – Rs. 1508.716 cr

Earning Per Share – Rs. 27.72/sh.

Book Value – Rs. 99.80/sh.

Cash on Books - Rs.1700.14 cr , Rs. 100/sh.

MANGANESE ORE INDIA LTD - A MINI RATNA PSU

MOIL, India’s biggest & 5th largest in the world in manganese ore production & a public sector company setup in 1896, having its mines in MP& Maharashtra with an combined capacity of 1.093 million tonnes of manganese ore which constitutes 50% of total requirement of the country . The company operates at 60 % plus margins. MOIL is a profit making company for last 15 years and a Debt - Free Company with a cash reserve of Rs.1700 cr is coming with an IPO of about Rs. 1500 cr or 20 % of dilution (may offer 3.38 cr shares). Through this IPO the Central government will divest 10 % of its stake in the company, while Madhya Pradesh & Maharashtra government will divest 5 % each. The entire amount from the IPO will go to central & state governments. Central government holds 81.5 % in MOIL, whereas state government of Maharashtra holds 9.62 % & State government of Madhya Pradesh holds 8.8 % in MOIL.

The company plans to invest Rs.770 cr to expand its production capacity from current 10,93,363 tonnes to 1.475 million tonnes in next 5 years which is a 35 % of increase in its production capacity. MOIL has set up a Ferro Manganese Plant of 10,000 tonnes per year capacity & Electrolytic Manganese Dioxide (EMD) with an annual capacity of 1,000 tonnes per year

MOIL wants to acquire mines in Turkey, South Africa & Gabon. Company operates 10 mines - 6 in Maharashtra & 4 in MP. In recent years, the requirement of manganese has increased due to raise in Steel production; this has lead to greater demand for ore.

The company has a joint venture worth Rs.600 cr with SAIL & Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd for setting up steel plant which is to be commissioned by June – July 2011. These two companies would be undertaking production of steel & MOIL will supply manganese ore. The Debt – Equity ratio in this JV is 1:1.

MOIL has been allotted 814 hectares of land for mining manganese ore in & around Nagpur. Most of these mines are underground (they have reached at 309 meters in depth) and are more than 100 years old; the company has all the required clearances from the Union Environment Ministry for both the states.

SO, I give a SUBSCRIBE / BUY to the MANGANESE ORE IPO.

Net Asset Value - Rs.99.8 (31 March 2010) ; Rs.110.71 (30 June 2010).

Net Worth - Rs. 1676.716 Cr (31 March 2010) ; Rs.1859.963 Cr (30 June 2010)

EV/EBITDA - 6.283 (31 March 2010) reasonably valued.

EV/EBITDA - NMDC - 18.05

EV/EBITDA - SESAGOA - 10.55

EV/EBITDA - SANDUR MANGANESE - 13.27

READ COMMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.....

US PRINTING NOTES AGAIN: DEBASEMENT OF CURRENCY

"MONEY MONEY MONEY!!!!"

On November 3, 2010. Federal Reserve chairman Ben S Bernanke decided to have a second round of Quantitative Easing (QE2). He decided to pump in $600 billion into the US economy by buying an additional Treasury Bond through June in order to reduce unemployment & avoid deflation by printing money. And printing more & more money would be more “Debasement of your Currency”. This will lead to surging commodity prices & asset bubbles not only in the US but also in Emerging Markets. The US Fed reserve calls it liquidity into the financial system by merely printing more & more dollars, which are not backed by real assets such as Gold. Technically, there is no limit to this printing, i.e. No supply restriction on paper currencies. This is what economists called “Debasement of Currency”.

Gold has a unique characteristic of a store of value which is not with paper currencies, which tend to lose value over a period of time due to inflation (loss of purchasing power) caused by an oversupply of printed money.

We will compare the Currency in Circulation issued and the underlying Gold held by concerned Central Banks in developed countries. Divide the Gold reserves (in tonnes) held by Central Banks with the currency in circulation (in billion $) of the respective countries will give us a ratio, a Gold to currency ratio.

In 1973, Gold held by the US central bank was 8,584 tonnes & the currency in circulation was $61 billion. Dividing the gold held by the currency in circulation, we get a ratio of 140.2 for that year. i.e. 140.2 tonnes of gold was held per $1 billion of currency in circulation. In the year 2007, the US central bank held 8,133 tonnes of Gold & the money in circulation was a whopping $759 billion. The ratio comes to 10.7 .i.e. only 10.7 tonnes of gold held per billion dollars in circulation.

If the US were to get back to the 1973 ratio of gold held per billion $ in circulation, it would have to increase its Gold Reserve to whopping 1,07,153 tonnes from the current 8,133 tonnes, an increase of more than 13 times in potential demand. With the financial crisis not over yet, Central Banks like FED would continue to inject more & more money into the financial system. Thus the debasement of currency will continue, making real assets like GOLD & SILVER more & more attractive as a hedge against reducing purchasing power & loss of faith & confidence in paper currencies.

We should thank GOD that the US does not have a printing press for Gold. The YELLOW metal may be the only Savior of our wealth over the longer term. That sure makes a case to buy GOLD. As far as our INDIA is a concern, India’s M3 supply in INM3MS=ECI as of July 16,2010 was Rs.57,821.41 billion from Rs.56,770.76 billion (June 18,2009) & Rs.4984.46 billion on July 3,2009. GOLD RESERVE AS ON SEPTEMBER 10, 2010 – 557.7 tonnes.

SO..GOLD IS ALWAYS A BUY EVEN AT THIS PRICE. BUY IN GRAMS IT SURELY WILL MAKE YOUR WEALTH SLOWLY BUT SURELY.....

Read my previous post on GOLD - CLICK HERE -  MORE ON GOLD

THE POWER OF COMPOUNDING

HI Friends!! Many a times we have heard about the power of compounding, we have also learnt some of them too….but the things we learn from practical life can not be taught by textbooks…..Similarly I came across one investor who is about 60 yrs of age retired teacher who invested way back in 1980’s kept hold onto it and made….HOW MUCH….GUESS!!!!!!!! Lakhs…Millions…Crores….Just imagine…

He invested 30 years back by just investing Rs.1,000/- initially. He subscribed in 10 shares of this Company with a face value of Rs. 100/- in 1980…

• In 1981 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 20 shares

• In 1985 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 40 shares

• In 1986 company split the share to Rs. 10 = he had 400 shares

• In 1987 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 800 shares

• In 1989 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 1600 shares

• In 1992 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 3200 shares

• In 1995 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 6400 shares

• In 1997 company declared 1 : 2 bonus = he had 19,200 shares

• In 1999 company split the share to Rs. 2 = he had 96,000 shares

• In 2004 company declared 1 : 2 bonus = he had 2,88,000 shares

• In 2005 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 5,76,000 shares

• In 2010 company declared 3:2bonus = he have 9,60,000 shares

At the end...now in 2010 he has 9,60,000 shares of this company

Any guesses about the company?

His present valuation is about Rs. 41.86 Cr. & the company is ‘WIPRO’ - Western India Vegetable Products Ltd.

This is the power of compounding. Take a look below - 

What this simple but astonishing table shows is how if money is allowed to quietly compound, it attains enormous proportions. See how a sum of Rs. 1 lakh per annum over a period of 25 years at a rate of return of 25 % becomes an incredible Rs. 2.64 crores. Imagine if you could save 10 lakhs every year, in 25 years you would have 26 crores !!

Wipro managed to rope in many shareholders and helped them reap profits. The process started with just 17,000 shares that Wipro issued to the public at Rs. 100 each in 1947. In 1971, the company issued one bonus share for every three share held. In 1981, it was a one for one offer and this history of bonus shares kept on moving with time.

Other such examples ….....

CIPLA = Investment of Rs. 10,000/- in 1979 will fetch Rs. 95 cr.+

INFOSYS = Investment of Rs. 10,000/- in 1992 will fetch Rs. 1.5 cr.+

RANBAXY = Investment of Rs. 1,000/- in 1980 will fetch Rs. 1.9 cr.+

COAL INDIA : SUBSCRIBE FOR LISTING GAINS.

Price Band - Rs.225-245, Face Value- Rs.10 , 5 % Discount to Retailers.

Issue opens on - 18th October 2010, Monday

Issue closes on - 21st October 2010, Thursday

Listing on – 4th November 2010, Thursday

QIB Book - 315818220 shares.

Retail Book - 568472796 shares.

Employee Reservation - 63163644 shares

Total No. of Shares offered - 631636440 shares or 10 %

Equity Shares outstanding after the Issue - 6316364400 Sh

Equity Shares outstanding prior Issue -6316364400 Sh

Total Size of the Issue - Rs. 14211.81 Cr's. - Rs. 15475.09 Cr's.

IPO GRADING – 5/5 by CRISIL , 5/5 by ICRA.

FAIR VALUE - Rs.265- Rs. 315

CONSOLIDATED RESULTS AS ON – 31st March 2010

TOTAL INCOME - Rs. 52592.292 cr

NET PROFIT – Rs. 9833.699 cr

Share Capital – Rs. 6316.364 cr

Reserves & Surplus – Rs. 19533.022 cr

Dividend – 35 % or Rs. 3.50 per share.

Earning Per Share – Rs. 15.57/sh.

Book Value – Rs. 40.92/sh.

COAL INDIA – India’s largest coal producing company. In FY 09 it contributed 81.9% of total India’s coal production. Largest producer of coal based on raw coal production in the world. Coal Reserve as on 1st April 2010 – 6421.8 cr. It operates 471 mines across 8 states in India. Also exploring opportunities in Australia, Indonesia, South Africa & USA.Raw coal prices lower than landed cost of imported coal in India. Coal India will help GOVT to raise 37.8 % of its disinvestment target.

According to the red herring prospectus of the company, on a consolidated basis, it had registered the three months profit ended June 30 2010, Coal India's total income was about Rs 13,110 crore, while net profit for the period stood at Rs 2,521.78 crore, Coal India had a cash and bank balance of Rs 38,046.34 crore and debt of Rs 1,779.45 crore. Coal India has set aside $1.2 billion (Rs 5,300 crore) in this financial year for foreign acquisitions,

CIL is 40% cheaper than it peers on EV/EBITDA, only 18% of its coal is of top quality. On a price to earnings basis, it certainly does not look overpriced. It is in line at 15 times with what a Peabody Energy or Bhumi Resources is trading at. If you were to look at it from an EV/EBITDA prospective, then it is certainly more than 30% or 40% cheaper vis-à-vis some of its global peers trading at about 6 to 6.5 times whereas the global average to EV/EBITDA basis stands at a 12-13 times. So clearly valuations seem to be on its side. According to me the fair value of CIL comes to Rs. 1,67,383.65 cr - Rs. 1,98,965.47 cr or Rs. 265 - Rs.315

SUBSCRIBE FOR LONG TERM & IF FOR TRADING PROSPECTIVE GO FOR IT ON LISTING GAINS......

SESAGOA : BUY ON EVERY DECLINES

Scrip Code : 500295 /SESAGOA

CMP : Rs. 367.10 ;Buy at current levels & in every dip.

Traget : Rs. 380 - Short term ; Long term - Rs. 480.

Market Cap : Rs. 31,559.68 cr.

52 Week High - Low : Rs. 274.7/Rs. 490.8.

Book Value : Rs. 86.75 ; Face Value : Rs. 1.00 ; EPS : Rs. 31.83 ; Divd : 325.00 % ; Total Debt : Rs. 1992.80 cr ; Enterprise Value : Rs.397.59 per share ;

Total Shares : 859702559 shares; Promoters - 479113619 shares - 55.73% ;Total Public holding – 99510958 shares – 11.58%

SESA GOA is a best bet in medium to long term at current price as company is rapidly churning free cash flows on the very fluctuating iron ore prices. There’s an estimate of 3.4 cr tonnes of iron ore mining in FY12, which is much lower estimate then management’s guidance of 5 cr tonnes which implies a volume of 31% CAGR in FY10-12. This volume upside would make cash flow rising despite of falling commodity prices.

On the basis of Discounted Cash Flow analysis Sesa Goa current valuation in an long term iron ore realization comes at $47/tonne.

Now, on CAIRN VEDANTA DEAL, This acquisition will cost over US $ 9 Billion of which Sesa Goa will invest from its cash resources US $ 3 Billion for a 20% stake…. This will be shown as an Investment in the Books of Sesa Goa. (20% of cairn comes to 37.95 cr shares at Rs.355/sh i.e. Rs.13471 cr).

Now, on 31st March 2010

Networth of Sesa Goa was Rs.7209 cr. (Eq Rs.83 cr + Reserves Rs.7126 cr).

Fixed Asset Rs. 580 cr

+ Investments Rs. 5479 cr

+ Net Current Asset Rs. 3076 cr

– Loans Rs. 1926 cr

TOTALS – Rs.7209 cr.

The Deal is expected to be done by early Fy 2011

So after the deal on March 31, 2011 , Sesa Goa’s Networth has to climb from Rs 7209 crs to atleast Rs 15000 cr. The Assets Side would reflect Fixed Assets of Rs 600 crs + Investments of Rs 13500 crs atleast + Net Current Assets of Rs 1000 crs .Sesa Goa will hold 37.95 crs shares being 20% of Cairns India’s Equity…. thus will receive Rs 190 crs as Dividend assuming Rs 5/share Dividend by Cairns…. It has Invested atleast @ Rs 13500 cr, so the return on Investment is a 1.40% being the Dividend Yeild!….

The book value of Sesa Goa will be around Rs.174.50. EPS- Rs. 88-90. EV/EBITDA - 11.35 v/s 26.40 of industry