IL&FS TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS LTD : PARTNERING GROWTH !!!

Scrip Code: 533177 / IL&FSTRANS

CMP:  Rs. 128.70; Buy at current levels & Accumulate at every dips.

Short term Target: Rs. 143.00, 6 month Target – Rs. 220; STOP LOSS – Rs. 118.40; Market Cap: Rs. 2,500.64 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 228.90 / Rs. 97.10

Total Shares: 19,42,67,732 shares; Promoters : 14,07,63,003 shares –72.46 %; Total Public holding : 5,35,04,729 shares – 27.54 %; Book Value: Rs. 109.38; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 12.54; Div: 40.00 % ; P/E: 10.26 times; Ind. P/E: 17.57; EV/EBITDA: 7.99.

Total Debt: 2,753.38 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 16,467.57 Cr.

IL&FS TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS LIMITED: ITNL was incorporated on November 29, 2000 and is based in Mumbai, India. It was formerly known as Consolidated Toll Network Limited and changed its name to IL&FS Transportation Networks Limited in October 18, 2005. IL&FS Transportation Networks Limited operates in the Highway and street construction sector. The company came with an IPO on March 11, 2010 with an issue price of Rs. 258 per share and raise about Rs. 700 Cr with an objective to utilize the proceeds for funding pre-payment of company’s debt and for other general corporate purposes. The shares got listed on Indian brouses on March 30, 2010. IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL) is a surface transportation infrastructure company. ITNL is the builder, operator and transfer (BOT) road operators engaged in developing, designing, operating, maintaining and facilitating surface transportation infrastructure projects. ITNL’s services include advisory and management services, supervisory services, operation and maintenance services, toll collection services for toll road projects. ITNL provides maintenance services primarily for highways and roads in Spain, Portugal and Latin America, and advisory and project management for BOT road projects, trades in materials used in the maintenance of roads & undertakes construction contracts. On May 31, 2010, it acquired Area De Servicio Coiros S.L.U. On September 1, 2010, it acquired Conservacion De Infraestructuras De Mexico S.A. De C.V. On December 17, 2010, it acquired Alcantarilla Fotovoltaica, S.L.U. and Area De Servicio Punta Umbria, S.L.U. IL&FS Transportation Networks Limited is a subsidiary of Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Limited. The company is locally compared with Simplex Infrastructures Ltd, Jaypee Infratech Limited, Ashoka Buildcon, Irb Infrastructure developers Limited and globally compared with DP World Ltd (Dubai Ports World) of Dubai, Gemadept Corporation of Vietnam, Kuwait and Gulf Link Transport Company of Kuwait, Summit Alliance Port ltd of Bangladesh and NRW Holdings Limited of Australia.

Investment Rationale:

IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd. (ITNL) is an established ISO 9000:2001 surface transportation infrastructure company & is one of the largest private sector Built Operate Transfer road operators in India. It has established its self as a developer, operator and facilitator of surface transportation infrastructure projects, taking projects from conceptualization through commissioning to operations and maintenance. IL&FS Transportation Network limited is India’s largest road developer. ITNL is from the reputed IL&FS Group, with a portfolio of 22 domestic road projects and 1 international projects aggregating to 7,621 Stake Adjusted Lane in Km (SALK) in its portfolio. ITNL has 11 operational projects with 3,281 SALK and remaining 12 projects or 4,341 SALK under development. In March 2008, IL&FS Transport Networks Ltd commenced international operations through the acquisition of Elsamex S.A. (Elsamex), is a provider of maintenance services primarily for highways and roads in Spain & other countries. IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd has recently signed a US$ 30 Cr contract to build a six-lane highway. The project will link an eastern industrial zone having heavy-duty traffic to mining districts such as Dhanbad, the nation's coal capital. Meanwhile, NHAI has agreed to facilitate 50 % of the financial assistance to Kerala’s State Government for developing the proposed bypasses in Kollam, Alappuzha and Kozhikode. The Union ministry will grant Rs. 357 crore of financial assistance to the state for developing the five bypass roads. The funds for the same would be disbursed in a phased manner. IL&FS Transportation Networks has signed a MoU with Nippon Expressway Company Ltd (NEXCO East) to work together through a strategic alliance for implementation of PPP road projects. During the quarter, Barwa Adda Expressway Ltd and Khed Sinnar Expressway Ltd have been incorporated as subsidiaries of the company National Highways Authority of India has issued Provisional Completion Certificate to the Pune-Solapur Road project which was awarded to the Company on DBFOT (Toll) basis. The project is on toll basis with a concession period of 19 years and 295 days comprising of Tolling and Operations & Management period of 18 years. IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd has informed that The Concession Agreements were signed with the concerned Authorities for the following projects: Kiratpur Ner Chowk section of NH 21 of 90.175 kms in the States of Punjab and Himachal Pradesh; Beawar Gomti section of NH 8 of 88 kms of the total 116 kms Capacity augmentation in the State of Rajasthan; Sikar Bikaner section of NH 11 of 237.57 kms in the State of Rajasthan. During the year 2012-13, the group has acquired an additional 38,60,456 equity shares of one of the subsidiaries, viz., North Karnataka Expressway Ltd (NKEL), as result of which the stake of the Group in NKEL has been increased from 87.00% to 93.50%. IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd has reported its first quarter fiscal 2014 consolidated revenue of Rs. 1,451.11 Cr, a decrease of 8.13 % y-o-y. The company’s net profit jumps to Rs. 124.53 Cr against Rs. 121.72 Cr in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, an increase of 2.31 %. During the quarter total expenditure declines by 16 % mainly on account of decrease in material consumed cost along with consideration of construction contract expenses. Total expenditure in Q1 FY14 was at Rs. 956.75 Cr as against Rs. 1,137.48 Cr in Q1 FY13. The Company has undertaken international initiatives and has established offices in Dubai and Nigeria through one of its subsidiary based in Singapore. The International office is based out of Dubai & will be responsible for pursuing international mandates. The Company is pursuing in UAE, Nigeria and others parts of the world. The Company is also pursuing an airport expansion project in the UAE. The Company’s Metro Rail project in Gurgaon is nearing completion and is scheduled to commence operations in the coming year.

Outlook and Valuation:

Gurgaon Toll Plaza

IL&FS Transportation Networks Ltd has been adjudged and awarded the "Most Admired Infrastructure Company in Transport" at the 5 KPMG INFRASTRUCTURE AWARDS 2013. India’s road network, spanning across 4.69 million km, is the third-largest road network in the world, next in line only to the US and China. The country relies heavily on its robust road network that carries almost 65 per cent of freight and 80 per cent of passenger traffic. National Highways (NH), under the jurisdiction of National Highways Authority of India (NHAI), constitute for almost 2 per cent of the network but carry about 40 per cent of the total road traffic. The Indian Government is very particular about the development and maintenance of this huge network; more so because number of vehicles in the country has been growing at an average rate of 10.16 per cent per annum over the last five years. Thus a need for efficient and world-class road network becomes inevitable for smooth transitions of goods and services. The administration awarded about 2, 000 km worth of new road construction contracts in FY13. The Company continues to maintain its growth story and the leading position in the Surface Transport Sector with 25 projects in its portfolio in various stages aggregating to 13,161 lane kilometers, of which 6,318 lane kilometers are under operation. ITNL is highly sensitive to interest rate, 100 basis points correction in the risk free interest rate leads to 26 % increase in fair value of ITNL, & this remains a key beneficiary of reduction in risk free rate of project financing. ITNL has the highest leverage in the road sectors making it highly interest rate sensitive. At the current market price of Rs. 128.70, the stock is trading at a PE of 5.74 x FY14E and 6.91 x FY15E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 22.40 in FY14E and Rs. 18.60 in FY15E. One can buy ITNL with a short term target price of Rs. 143.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 220.00

KEY FINANCIALS	FY12	FY13	FY14E	FY15E
SALES (₹ Crs)	5,605.60	6,644.90	5,972.50	7,575.00
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	497.00	519.40	434.80	361.40
EPS (₹)	25.60	26.70	22.40	18.60
PE (x)	4.70	4.50	5.40	6.40
P/BV (x)	0.90	0.60	0.60	0.50
EV/EBITDA (x)	8.40	8.90	8.70	8.40
ROE (%)	20.20	16.40	11.40	8.60
ROCE (%)	14.00	11.80	10.50	10.90

I would buy IL&FS TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS LTD for Short term it would be Rs. 143.00 and for the Medium to Long term it would be Rs. 220. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or ₹ 118.40 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

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GAIL INDIA LTD : GAS & BEYOND !!!

Scrip Code: 532155 / GAIL

CMP:  Rs. 345.80; Buy at current levels.

Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 398.50; STOP LOSS – Rs. 318.00; Market Cap: Rs. 43,863.95 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 395.85 / Rs. 272.20

Total Shares: 126,84,77,400 shares; Promoters: 72,74,05,675 shares – 57.35 %; Total Public holding: 54,10,71,725 shares – 42.65 %; Book Value: Rs. 191.00; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 28.59; Div: 96%; P/E: 12.09 times; Ind. P/E: 8.86; EV/EBITDA: 7.50

Total Debt: Rs. 8,364.52 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 57,918.79 Cr.

GAIL INDIA LTD: The Company was incorporated on 16 August of 1984 and is based in New Delhi, India. The Gas Authority of India Ltd. (GAIL) is one of India's leading Public Sector Enterprises, initially established as a wholly owned Company of the Government of India with 100 % equity held by the Government of India and is the largest gas transmission and marketing company in the Country. It is now one of the 'Navratna' enterprises and is ranked among the top ten companies in India. The equity pattern in the Company has also changed and the Government today holds about 67 % of the equity in the Company. GAIL (India) Limited is a gas utility company in India. The Company’s products include natural gas, liquid hydrocarbons, liquid petroleum gas transmission, petrochemicals, city gas distribution and power. The Company serves the retail sector of natural as by supplying green and clean fuel (CNG) and PNG to domestic and commercial sector. The Company has a joint venture with Vododara Mahanagar Sewa Sadan (VMSS). The Company’s operating segments include Natural Gas Transmission, natural gas trading, petrochemicals, LPG and other liquid hydrocarbons and other segments. Its supplies of natural gas include fuel t power plants and feedstock for gas fertilizer plants. The company produces LPG through fractionation, known as Straight Run (SR). It manufactures and markets downstream HDPE & LLDPE from natural gas cracking at its Pata (Uttar Pradesh state, India) unit. In addition, it operates approximately 400 compressed natural gas retail outlets; and provides piped natural gas to domestic, commercial, and industrial applications, as well as has participating interests in 31 exploration blocks in Mahanadi, Mumbai, Cambay, Assam-Arakan, Tripura Fold Belt, Gujarat Kutch, Krishna Godavari, Cauvery, and Cauvery Palar basins. Further, the company leases bandwidth as a carriers' carrier through its optic-fiber network of approximately 13,000 kilometers; and generates electric power through a joint venture. It owns approximately 9,500 kilometers of natural gas pipelines; 2 LPG pipelines covering 2040 kilometers; 7 gas processing plants for production of LPG and other liquid hydrocarbons; and a gas based integrated petrochemical plant for producing polymer. The Company’s segments include Transmission services, Natural Gas Trading, Petrochemicals, LPG and other Liquid Hydrocarbons, City Gas Distribution and Un-allocable. The Company is marketing Gas Processing Unit’s (GPU’s) products namely Liquefied Petroleum Gases (LPG), Propane, Pentane, Naphtha and by-products of polymer plant namely MFO, Propylene & Hydrogenated C4 Mix. The Company’s subsidiaries include GAIL Gas Limited, Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Limited, GAIL Global (Singapore) Pte. and GAIL Global (USA) Inc. In September 2011, the Company incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary GAIL Global (USA) Inc. The company is locally compared with Petronet LNG, Indraprastha Gas ltd, Gujarat Gas Company, NTPC Ltd, GVK Power & Infra ltd, KSK Ebergy Ventures Ltd, Adani Power Ltd, Gujarat Industries Power Company Ltd and globally compared with Hokkaido Gas Co Ltd of Japan, China Gas Ltd of Hong Kong, Nippon Gas Co Ltd of Japan, Agl Resources Inc of New York, Wgl Holdings Inc of New York, Delta Natural Gas Co Inc of USA, New Jersey Resources Corp of USA.

Investment Rationale:

GAIL (India), a natural gas company is into exploration, production, processing, transmission, distribution and marketing of natural gas. It now has a turnover of more than Rs. 47,300 crore. The state-owned gas major has a market share of 78 % in natural gas transmission and 70 % in marketing with plans to double up the existing transportation capacity in the next two to three years. It has 27 oil and gas exploration blocks and 3 coal bed methane blocks. GAIL (India) Limited, is India's flagship Natural Gas company, integrating all aspects of the Natural Gas value chain (including Exploration & Production, Processing, Transmission, Distribution and Marketing) and its related services. In a rapidly changing scenario, the company spearheading the move to a new era of clean fuel industrialization, creating a quadrilateral of green energy corridors that connects major consumption centres in India with major gas fields, LNG terminals and other cross border gas sourcing points. GAIL is also expanding its business to become a player in the International Market. GAIL produces million tonnes of LPG. Its 1,922 km LPG transmission pipeline connects the western, northern, and southern part of India and has capacity to transport 3.8 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA) of LPG. It also produces propane, pentane and naphtha. It has a joint venture with Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation and Gujarat State Energy Generation where it has an installed capacity of 156 MW. GAIL also has a joint venture with NTPC, Indian financial institutions (IFIs) and MSEB Holding Company, Ratnagiri Gas and Power (RGPPL), which has power generation capacity of 2,150 MW. It has optic fibre network extending over 13,000 km across 200 cities. It leases this network for SCADA, ERP and ISP services to telecom operators including Hutch, Tata Communications, Airtel, Idea Cellular, Tata Teleservices, and Reliance Communications and others. GAIL has a total of 31 exploration blocks in basins such as Mahanadi, Mumbai, Cambay, Assam - Akaran, Tripura Fold Belt and Cauvery. In these blocks it has partnered with companies like ONGC, GSPC, OIL India, Hardy Exploration & Production, Petrogas, JOGPL, Daewoo, OVL, IOC, Korea Gas Corporation, Hallworthy, BPCL, HPCL and Silverwave. The Company also has 70 % equity share in Brahmaputra Cracker and Polymer Limited (BCPL) which is setting up a 2,80,000 TPA polymer plant in Assam. GAIL is a co-promoter with 17 % equity stake in ONGC Petro-additions Limited (OPaL) which is implementing a green field petrochemical complex of 1.1 MMTPA Ethylene capacities at Dahej in the State of Gujarat. GAIL has 31.52 % stake along with NTPC as equal partner in JV Company, RGPPL at Dabhol which operates largest gas based power generation facility in the country and is also setting up 5 MMTPA LNG terminals. GAIL has achieved an overall physical progress of 91 % and financial progress of 73 % till end-FY13. Company has an equity investment of Rs. 1,270 Cr and the project enjoys capital subsidy of 52 %.  

Outlook and Valuation:

GAIL (India) Ltd is India's flagship Natural Gas Company, engages in the exploration and production and also in processing, transmission, distribution, and marketing of natural gas. The Indian Oil and Gas (O&G) sector is one of the six core industries of India and contributes over 15 % to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The country is the sixth largest consumer of oil in the world and the ninth largest crude oil importer. The sector is of immense importance to the economy because of its significant forward integration with many other sectors. India is committed to boosting its growth in the years to come and this progress would translate into the country’s energy needs growing many times. The need of the hour, therefore, is to channelise all efforts on exploration of new blocks effectively as well as efficiently. The growing demand for crude oil and gas in the country coupled with policy initiatation is a key. Going forwards GAIL is currently doubling its petchem capacity from 450ktpa to 900ktpa at an estimated capex of Rs. 8,100 Cr. The capacity is expected to be mechanically complete by December 2013 and assuming six months of stabilization period, it is expected that its capacity can be commercially operational by 1QFY15E. GAIL is a gas-based petchem producer and its gas cost is fixed unlike fluctuating costs for naphtha-based producers. However, the Indian government’s decision to increase domestic gas price from April 2014 would adversely impact GAIL’s Petchem business profitability.  As company’s internal gas consumption comprises of both PMT and APM, and as a price hike is expected only in APM gas, it is seen that the gas could cost around USD6.7/mmbtu from FY15E as against $5 as of now and APM gas price to increase to $8.4/mmbtu. It is expected that GAIL’s earnings to remain subdued in the medium term as headwinds on incremental gas availability continue. GAIL’s 1QFY14 subsidy burden is seen at Rs. 700 Cr. In the wake of scheduled increase in domestic gas price from Aril 2014, if the Government were to remove GAIL from subsidy sharing, then based on assumptions the estimated net advantage for Gail comes at Rs. 6/share. Adjusted for investments, the stock trades at 9.41x FY15E EPS of Rs. 38.25. On SOTP-based fair value estimate is Rs. 398.50 per share. In my view GAIL could post EPS of Rs. 38.25 for FY14E & Rs. 44.67 for FY15E and one can ACCUMULATE the stock and would advise investors to use declines in the stock to buy with a long term view, I would buy GAIL INDIA LTD with a Medium to Long term investment for an price target of Rs. 398.50 and off course with a strict stoploss of 8 % on every purchases.

SOTP VALUATIONS 

Business Subsidiary	Value Per Share (₹)
Gas Transmission	160.00
Gas Trading	67.00
Petrochemicals	113.00
LPG & Liquid HC	46.00
E&P Upside	21.00
Other Investments	46.00
Enterprise Value	453.00
Less: Net Debt	54.50
Equity value	398.50
TARGET PRICE	398.50

KEY FINANCIALS	FY13	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
SALES (₹ Crs)	47,300.00	58,100.00	88,400.00	1,00,100.00
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	4,000.00	4,500.00	4,900.00	5,700.00
EPS (₹)	31.71	35.49	38.25	44.67
PE (x)	10.50	9.30	8.70	7.40
P/BV (x)	1.70	1.50	1.40	1.20
EV/EBITDA (x)	7.50	6.60	5.90	4.80
ROE (%)	17.50	18.90	16.90	17.60
ROCE (%)	13.90	14.10	13.30	14.80

I would buy GAIL INDIA LTD for Medium to Long term target of Rs. 398.50. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or ₹ 318.00 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

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SANGHVI MOVERS LTD : ENJOYS DEEPER MOAT !!!

Scrip Code: 530073 / SANGHVIMOV

CMP:  Rs. 40.55; Buy at current levels.

Short Term Target - Rs. 45; Medium to Long Term Target – Rs. 55; STOP LOSS – Rs. 48.00; Market Cap: Rs. 175.53 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 102.25 / Rs. 35.50.

Total Shares: 4,32,88,000 shares; Promoters : 2,01,32,444 shares – 46.51 %; Total Public holding : 2,31,55,556 shares – 53.49 %; Book Value: Rs. 153.26; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 0.62; Dividend: 50.00 % ; P/E: 65.40 times; Ind. P/E: 6.32; EV/EBITDA: 3.16

Total Debt: Rs. 353.48 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 540.32 Cr.

SANGHVI MOVERS LTD: The Company was founded in 1989 and is based in Pune, India. Sanghvi Movers Limited operates as a crane rental services company. It’s a major player in Equipment rental & leasing sector in India and other parts of Asia. It provides heavy lift, plant erection and maintenance services for various large scale projects. The company also offers over dimensional, heavy, and bulk cargo transportation services. It operates a fleet of 400 medium to large size hydraulic truck mounted telescopic and lattice boom cranes and crawler cranes with lifting capacity ranging from 20 MT to 800 MT; and 132 hydraulic multi axle modular trailers. In addition, the company also engages in the generation of power from windmills. It primarily serves power, cement, steel, refinery, metros, windmill, and metal sectors. The Company operates in two business segments: Operations of Cranes and Power Generation. It earns regular revenue from the business of power generation from windmills commissioned in Jaisalmer, Rajasthan and Chitradurga, Karnataka. The Company's clients include ACC Ltd, BGR Energy Systems Ltd, Birla Corporation Ltd, Electrosteels Ltd, Furnace Fabrica (India) Ltd, Jindal Steel & Power Ltd, Leitner Shriram Mfg Ltd, Neelachal ISPAT Nigam Ltd, Suzlon, Aditya Birla Group, TOYO, BHEL, Reliance, Vedanta Group, Siemens, Tata Steel, Enron power, Samsung and Gujarat Ambuja. Sanghvi Movers ltd is globally compared with Nippon Pallet Pool Company Ltd of Japan, Han Kook Capital Company Ltd of South Korea and with Nippan Rental Company Ltd of Japan.

Investment Rationale:

Sanghvi Movers is the 3rd largest crane services company in Asia and ranked seventh largest in the world. The company has a robust fleet of over 400 cranes, majority of which are above the 100 tonne category. Sanghvi Movers has an overall market share of about 45% and more than 80% market share in the 100 tonnes and above category. The company undertakes the implementation of turnkey projects and caters to 75% of the traditional power sector and 65% of the windmill sector’s crane requirement. The company has Crawler and truck mounted cranes and also has Hydraulic Multi Axle Modular Trailer. The company claims to have 98 % guaranteed machine availability with a timely deployment. The company has its owned state of the art Sanghvi Training Academy which provides high skills crane training programmes and produces highly skilled crane operators. Sanghvi Movers has 12 depots across the country to ensure timely deployment of cranes. The Indian logistics industry accounts for a mere 2 % ($100 billion) of the $5000 billion global logistics industry despite having the second largest network of roads at 3.83 million km, the fourth largest rail network of 63000 km, 128 airports, 12 major ports, 1 trans-shipment port and 187 non major ports. Indian Logistics sector grew by 8 to 10 percent annually over the last decade. There are several factors which have favorably impacted the growth of the logistics industry, like the country’s tax regime, growth across major industry segments such as automobile, pharmaceutical, fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) and the emergence of organized retail. Exim trade volume of India is growing consistently from last decade hence India is set to increase its share in global trade from less than 1 % now to about 1.6 % in 2012. India’s level of containerization is less than 25 % as against global average of 60 % - 70 %. An average time taken to clear import and export cargo at ports is about 19 days in India as against 3-4 days in Singapore. The trend towards containerization picked up in India in the last decade. Container traffic has seen a growth of 12 % CAGR in India from 2.5 million TEU in 2000-01 to 7.5 million TEU in 2010-11.

Outlook and Valuation:

Sanghvi Movers has a near monopolistic position in the high tonnage crane rental market in India. Company is a great proxy play to the improvement in Indian Infrastructure industry. The company is led by a strong entrepreneur C. Sanghvi and his professional team, company has been able to maintain its competitive advantages. Company has its Economic Moat (A competitive advantage that one company has over the other companies in the same industry – by Warren Buffett) expanding moats which is a very strong sign of a future Multi-bagger stock. Logistics is responsible for all the movement that takes place within the organization whether it is inbound logistics of incoming, raw materials or movement within the company or the physical distribution of finished goods, logistics encompasses all of these. A typical logistics framework mainly consists of physical supply, internal operations and physical distribution of goods and services. To put it more simple manner, the material supply logistics starts from the base level of “generation of the demand”, through the “process of purchase” and “supply of material from the vendor” right through to “final acceptance” and “payments to the supplier” and “issue to the indenter” and has to be considered as a “one whole activity” with each stage having an impact on price/cost of material supply. Logistics is, in itself, a system; it is a network of related activities with the purpose of managing the orderly flow of material and personnel within the logistics channel. As said before the Indian logistics industry accounts for a mere 2 % ($100 billion) of the $5000 billion global logistics industry and trade volume of India is growing consistently from last decade & hence India is all set to increase its share in global trade from less than 1 % now to about 1.6 % in 2013, and Sanghvi Movers is well equipped for that, also as Prime minster of India has now emphasized more on infrastructure development – Sanghvi Movers is a silent play to that. It is expected that the Sanghvi Movers EBITDA margin to be down 4.37 % yoy (slightly up qoq) chiefly from lower yields due to keener competition and discounts. Yields continue under pressure and are expected to be lower in FY14 from 2.86 % in FY12 because of intensifying competition. This leading domestic crane-hiring company provides hydraulic and crawler cranes to industries in infrastructure. The slowdown, however, in its target market (wind and power) would weigh on its results. Competition from foreign and domestic crane rental service players and lackluster investment in the infrastructure sector will keep the capacity utilisation and blended yield under pressure and affect the profitability in FY14E. There could be a re-rating of the stock only after a reversal trend in the capex cycle. Keener competition from foreign operators at lower rates and the slowdown in fresh investment have led to less planned capex for the next two years. The company has been struggling with delays in executing wind and power projects and the slowdown in steel and cement capacity expansions. Its cranes are operating at lower utilisation and yields, and it is grappling with bad-debt issues. With no capex for the next two years, debt would slide 50 % from its current consolidated debt of around Rs. 590 Cr. At the CMP of Rs. 40.55 the stock quotes at 4.71 x FY14E and 1.231x FY15E earnings. One can ‘BUY’ SANGHVI MOVERS with a short term target price of Rs. 45.00 and for Medium to Long term investment it could be a good buy for the target price of Rs. 55. 

KEY FINANCIALS	FY12	FY13E	FY14E	FY15E
SALES (₹ Crs)	450.50	339.20	337.90	351.60
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	101.80	40.90	37.30	45.80
EPS (₹)	23.50	9.50	8.60	10.60
PE (x)	2.80	6.90	7.50	6.10
P/BV (x)	0.40	0.40	0.40	0.40
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.30	3.50	3.00	2.40
ROE (%)	16.20	6.20	5.40	6.20
ROCE (%)	15.40	9.30	9.20	9.50

I would buy SANGHVI MOVERS LTD for Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 55 and for the shorter term it woud be Rs. 45.00. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or ₹ 37.30 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

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HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD : BEST IN FMCG !!!

Scrip Code: 500696 / HINDUNILVR

CMP:  Rs. 571.60; Buy at every dips.

Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 633; STOP LOSS – Rs. 525.90; Market Cap: Rs. 1,23,612.44 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 725.00 / Rs. 432.15

Total Shares: 216,25,69,017 shares; Promoters : 145,44,12,858 shares –67.25 %; Total Public holding : 70,81,56,159 shares – 32.74 %; Book Value: Rs. 12.37; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 16.61; Div: 1850.00 % ; P/E: 34.43 times; Ind. P/E: 38.24; EV/EBITDA: 25.69.

Total Debt: ZERO Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 1,23,287.81 Cr.

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD: The Company was founded in 1931 and is based in Mumbai, India. The company was formerly known as Hindustan Lever Limited and changed its name to Hindustan Unilever Limited in 2007.  Unilever Ltd on November 17, 1956, offered 5,57,000 shares of Rs. 10 each to the public at par. In February 1980, in order to reduce the Non- Resident holding in the company to 51 %, Unilever Ltd offered for sale of 42,39,523 equity shares of Rs. 10 each at a premium of Rs. 9.50 per share, this was out of its shareholding in the company. Hindustan Unilever Limited, is a Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) company – it provides home and personal care products; foods and beverages in India and internationally. The company operates in 7 business segments. The company offers soaps and detergents, including soaps, detergent bars, detergent powders, detergent liquids, and scourers; and personal products - such as oral care, skin care, hair care, deodorant, talcum powder, and color cosmetic products, as well as Ayush services. It also provides beverages - including tea and coffee; foods, such as atta (flour), salt, and bread; culinary products comprising tomato and fruit based products, and soups; and ice creams, such as ice creams and frozen desserts. In addition, the company offers chemicals, such as glycerin and fine chemicals; agri commodities; and water purifiers, as well as exports marine and leather products. HUL has over 35 brands spanning 20 distinct categories. Its portfolio of brands includes the brand names like - 3 Roses, Annapurna, Brooke Bond, Taaza, Bru, Kissan, Knorr, Kwality Wall’s, Lipton, Modern, Red Label, and Taj Mahal brand names; personal products under the Aviance, Axe, Breeze, Clear, Clinic Plus, Closeup, Dove, Fair & Lovely, Hamam, LEVER Ayush Therapy, Lakme, Lifebuoy, Liril 2000, Lux, Pears, Pepsodent, Pond's, Rexona Soap, Sunsilk, and Vaseline brand names; and home care products under the Active Wheel, Cif, Comfort, Domex, Rin, Sunlight, Surf Excel, and Vim brand names and water purifiers under the brand name Pureit. As on 31^st March 2013, Company had over 35 brands spanning 20 distinct categories. From April 01, 2013, Aquagel Chemicals Pvt Ltd become a subsidiary of Hindustan Unilever Ltd. On July 04, 2013, the parent company Unilever Plc raised its stake in HUL from 52.48 % to 67.28 %, by acquiring 31,95,63,398 shares representing 14.784 % in HUL via open offer priced at Rs. 600 per share.  The company is locally compared with ITC, Godrej Consumer, Dabur India, Colgate, Marico, Emami, Godrej Ind, P&G, Gillette India, Bajaj Corp, Jyothy Labs, Amar Remedies, JHS Svendgaard, GKB Ophthalmics and Globally compared with Associated British Foods Plc of London, Colgate-Palmolive Co of New York, Kimberly-Clark Corp of USA, Procter & Gamble Co of USA, Nestle S.A of Europe, Pepsico Inc of USA, Coca- Cola Co of USA, Mondelez International Inc of USA (earlier known as Kraft Foods Inc which acquired Cadbury’s), Heineken Nv of Amsterdam, Starbucks Corp of USA, McDonald’s Corp of USA, Yum! Brands Inc of USA, Danone of Paris, Asahi Group Hld Ltd of Japan, and Kerry Group of Dublin.

Investment Rationale:

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD is a play on consumption growth in India. The company has displayed its ability to effect price hikes and avoid impact of inflation in vegetable oils, which, combined with improved outlook for fabric wash and strong growth in processed foods and beverages, boosts the positive outlook on the stock. The recent moves by the company to dispose of its non-core assets including few properties give it a near term upside. The FMCG market in India is estimated to grow to US$ 100 billion by 2025, according to market research firm Nielsen. In the last decade the FMCG sector has grown at an average of 11 % a year; in the last five years, annual growth accelerated to 17 %. The FMCG Industry is characterized by a well-established distribution network, low penetration levels, low operating cost, lower per capita consumption and intense competition between the organized and unorganized segments. The rural India accounts for 70 % of India’s population, 56 % of National Income, 64 % of total expenditure and one third of the total savings. The Indian FMCG sector is the fourth largest sector in the Indian economy. Indian rural markets contribute around 45 % in HUL sales. In-order to tap the rural markets, HUL has conceived a project named Project Shakti. This project was started in 2001 with the aim of increasing the company's rural distribution reach as well as providing rural women with income-generating opportunities. This is a case where the social goals are helping achieve business goals. The recruitment of a Shakti Entrepreneur or Shakti Amma (SA) begins with the executives of Hindustan Unilever Ltd identifying the uncovered village areas. The representative of the company meets the panchayat and the village head and identify the woman who they believe will be suitable as a SA. After training she is asked to put up Rs. 20,000 as investment which is used to buy products for selling. The products are then sold door-to-door or through petty shops at home. On an average a Shakti Amma makes a 10 % margin on the products she sells. The main advantage of the Shakti program for HUL is having more feet on the ground. Shakti Ammas are able to reach far flung areas, which were economically unviable for the company to tap on its own, besides being a brand ambassador for the company. Moreover, the company has ready consumers in the form of SAs who become users of the products besides selling them. This gives thrust to the company’s volumes. On July 04, 2013, the parent company Unilever Plc raised its stake in HUL from 52.48 % to 67.28 %, by acquiring 31,95,63,398 shares representing 14.784 % in HUL via open offer priced at Rs. 600 per share amounting to Rs. 19,174 Crs. The total shares tendered by HUL shareholders were 31,99,91,578 shares out of which 31,95,63,398 shares were accepted by Unilever Plc. The tender offer was announced on April 30, 2013 and began on June 21, 2013 and ended on July 4, 2013. Unilever wanted to raise its stake to 75 % from 52.48 %, but managed to hike its stake to 67.26 %. The stake rise by the parent company shows confidence in the India consumption growth story and parent believes that India is one of the biggest markets for Unilever and it would be beneficial to acquire a larger share in its Indian Arm. HUL also launched few products in the beauty portfolio with offerings like Lakme Youth Infinity range, Lakme Cleanup Clear Pores range, Ponds Pimple Clear facewash and Dove facewash with Nutrium Moisture. HUL continues to focus on innovations as it believes that it is these innovations that will bring strong growth when the market scenario improves.

Outlook and Valuation:

Business environment for HUL continues to be challenging with slowing growth being witnessed on both the value and volume fronts. The overall competitive intensity has stepped up in various categories while the up-trending has come to an pause. The discretionary category which was outpacing the other category over a longer term has come to a pause, but the company believes it to be a short-term phenomenon. HUL, in its board meet in January 2013, approved a royalty of 3.15 per cent of turnover effective from February 2013. Till January 2013, the company paid 1.4 per cent of the total turnover as royalty to its parent company, Unilever. The company will increase the royalty from 1.4 per cent to 3.15 per cent in a phased manner till March 2018. On performance side, HUL’s 2QFY14 revenues grew by 9.2 % YoY to Rs. 6,890 Cr owing to higher than expected volume growth of 5 %. HUL saw a recovery in Personal Product (PP) growth to 12 % YoY against 2 % of 1QFY14 which is the key positive. Higher sales in PP were at the cost of lower margins which were down by 1.41 % YoY. Waning price led growth and higher competitive intensity in Sales & Distribution has not only impacted sales growth of the segment but also its margins. HUL’s EBITDA margin remained flat at 15.7 % as EBITDA grew 11.1 % to Rs. 1,080 Cr. Lower than expected tax rate led to Adjusted PAT growth of 9.6 %. HUL has a robust product pipe, and has a strong and lucrative personal products portfolio, and expanding distribution network. But with waning price growth in Sales & Distribution, difficult demand environment in packaged foods and personal products and with increased competitive intensity; it is expected that company’s revenue growth will curtail. However, HUL is also a good play because it has a revenue growth from a medium to long term perspective, however due to increase in royalty, steep hike in tax rate and slowdown in discretionary segments remains an overhang on this stock. Depreciation in rupee impacts price of imported raw materials. A rise in crude oil prices can impact packaging costs and indirectly / directly impact palm oil and LAB prices. Increase in palm oil prices may lead to gross margin contraction. The price war in HUL’s popular segments with new entrants entering the fray could hit the company hard. HUL pay’s rich dividends and one can hold this stock from a three five year perspective and focus on new product launches and market share gains in existing categories. At the current market price of Rs. 571.60, the stock P/E ratio is at 34.43 x FY14E and 30.73 x FY15E respectively. Company’s Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs. 16.60 and Rs. 18.60 respectively. Hindustan Unilever Ltd could be a good buy for the target price of Rs. 633 for Medium to Long term investment. 

KEY FINANCIALS	FY12	FY13	FY14E	FY15E
SALES (₹ Crs)	22,987.70	26,317.20	28,726.20	32,417.20
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	2,686.50	3,385.10	35,90.30	4,034.80
EPS (₹)	12.40	15.60	16.60	18.60
PE (x)	47.60	37.80	35.60	31.70
P/BV (x)	36.50	47.20	33.20	25.20
EV/EBITDA (x)	35.30	29.40	26.40	23.00
ROE (%)	83.40	103.10	104.50	87.60
ROCE (%)	257.80	489.10	431.00	227.40

I would buy HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD for Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 633. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or ₹ 525.90 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD in my investment portfolio.

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