COAL INDIA : Enjoying the whole Cake, best Investment !!!

Scrip Code: 533278 / COALINDIA

CMP:  Rs. 397.30; Buy at Rs. 370 for long term & at Current levels for short term
Short term Target: Rs. 415, 6 month Target – Rs. 435; STOP LOSS – Rs. 340; Market Cap: Rs. 2,50,949.15 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 422.35 / Rs. 289.00.

Total Shares: 631,63,64,400 shares; Promoters : 568,47,27,960 shares –90.00 %; Total Public holding : 63,16,36,440 shares – 10.00 %; Book Value: Rs. 52.7; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 17.20; Div: 35 % ; P/E: 23.09 times; Ind P/E: 24.18; EV/EBITDA: 13.50.

Total Debt: Rs. 3,663.49 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 2,54,612.64 cr.

COAL INDIA LIMITED: CIL was incorporated in 1973 in Kolkata, India. It was formerly known as Coal Mines Authority Limited. CIL is a leading public sector undertaking engaged in coal mining & selling coal fines in India and is working on establishing its footprint globally through acquisitions. Company operates 471 mines in 21 coalfields across 8 states in India, which includes 163 open cast mines, 273 underground mines & 35 mixed mines – open & underground mines. CIL operates through its 9 wholly owned subsidiaries, of which 1 subsidiary is engaged in exploration and feasibility study analysis. Its subsidiaries include Eastern Coalfields Ltd (ECL), Bharat Coking Coal India Ltd (BCCL), Central Coalfields Ltd (CCL), Northern Coalfields Ltd (NCL), Western Coalfields Ltd (WCL) and South Eastern Coalfields Ltd (SECL). CIL has total reserves of 64.3 billion tons and proved reserves of 52.4 billion tons, of which extractable reserves stands at 21.7 billion tons. The company also provides middlings used by fuel plants, brick manufacturing units, cement plants, industrial plants, as well as for power generation. CIL coal fines/coke fines are used in industrial furnaces, as well as for domestic purposes. It serves primarily power, steel, cement, and fertilizer industries.

Investment Rationale:

The Group of Ministers (GoM) has approved the Draft Mines and Minerals Development Regulation (MMDR) bill which states that coal mining companies will have to share 26 % of their profits after tax of the previous year with the local public where the mining takes place. The current draft states that profits which is to be distributed should be calculated on Net Profit of each of the mining company including their subsidiaries, more clarifications on the matter is awaited and is believed that there could be significant impact of the bill on the EPS of the mining stocks (See the Table below). There are good chances of CIL to able to adjust prices over a period of time. It is believed that CIL will be able to acquire land & mines easily after the law in enacted. Coal India’s 26 % net profit will be 5 % – 5.5 % of its net sales and an impact of 10 % in FY12 EPS. Complete pass through of the wage hike and mining tax is a challenge and could act as an overhang on the stock performance in the medium term. CIL has access to 64.3 billion tons of reserves, the largest in the world. From this, 52.4 billion tons are based on Indian Standard Procedure (ISP) guidelines, representing 6 % share of the global proven reserves. CIL's profitability and earnings growth are strong, demand from power and other industries ensure favorable return, with upside from e-auction and washed coal. CIL is ramping up its washed coal capacity from 39.4 million to over 111 million tons, with the addition of 20 new facilities. Washed coal earns superior returns for CIL and volume is expected to grow from 16 million tons in FY11 (4 % of total) to 65 million tons by FY 16 (12.5 % of total).

IMPACTED COMPANY	IMPACT ON EPS (%)
COAL INDIA	10.00
HINDALCO	1.00
JSPL	3.00
JSW STEEL	2.00
NALCO	1.00
SAIL	11.00
SESA GOA	9.00
STERLITE IND	6.00
TATA STEEL	6.00

Outlook and Valuation:

India's coal demand for FY 10 stood at 600 million tonnes as against the domestic availability of 535 million tonnes; this gap was filled up by the import of 65 million tonnes. CIL is well positioned to capitalize the widening gap of demand & supply as it controls 80 % of the coal supply in India. CIL has been facing problems for its planned expansion, due to delays in requisite environment and forest clearances and land acquisition issues. In FY11 Coal dispatches to be at 425 million tonnes & 455 million tonnes for FY12E; Realisation to be of Rs. 1,183/tonne in FY11 & Rs. 1,321/tonne for FY12E; EBITDA to be Rs. 318/tonne in FY11 & Rs. 392/tonne in FY12E. Company to hold board meeting on 12th August 2011 for quarterly results; To hold AGM on 20th September 2011; Final dividend of 4 % (Rs. 0.40) on 8th September 2011; Book Closure for dividend from 12th September to 16th September 2011 

In my view CIL could report EPS of Rs. 22.10/sh and Rs. 26.50/sh, respectively. CIL’s stock price has corrected from high of Rs. 422/sh, on the back of the development on profit sharing. I maintain a positive view on the stock & believe that any further correction would be a good buying opportunity for long term holders, as for short term, stock could be bought with a price target of Rs. 415.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12E	FY13E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	50,233.60	60,578.60	65,494.70
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	10,867.40	13,905.95	16,742.73
EPS (Rs.)	17.30	22.01	26.50
PE (x)	22.70	17.97	14.90
P/BV (x)	6.80	5.69	4.50
EV/EBITDA (x)	13.50	11.40	9.70
ROCE (%)	26.40	37.80	33.90
RONW (%)	54.20	53.40	50.90

MAJOR EVENTS OF COAL INDIA

DATE	KEY EVENTS	MKT.CAP (Rs. Cr)	PRICE (Rs.)
4thNOV 2010	Listed on NSE/BSE	2,16,240.58	342.55
15thMAR 2011	Positioned no.3 in market cap	2,13,335.06	338.45
23rdMAY 2011	Positioned no.2 in market cap	2,31,020.87	365.40
8thJULY 2011	Fell down to 4th positon in market cap	2,28,652.23	362.65
12thJULY 2011	Regained 3rd position in market cap	2,30,673.47	365.30
27thJULY 2011	Regained 2nd position in market cap	2,52,117.51	398.95
8thAUG 2011	Will be included in SENSEX	------	-----

I would buy COAL INDIA LTD with a price target of Rs. 415 for the short term and Rs. 435 for the 6 month target. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 340.00 on your purchase.

L & T Finance Holdings : Subscribe for LONG TERM !!!

Price Band - Rs. 51- Rs. 59, Face Value- Rs.10.

Discount - 2% to L&T Employees & Shareholders.

Minimum Lot Size –  100 Shares.

Issue opens on - 27th July 2011, Wednesday.

Issue closes on – 29th July 2011, Friday.

Listing on – 12th August 2011.

Total No. of Shares offered – 21.1 Cr shares if priced at Rs.59

Total No. of Shares offered – 24.4 Cr shares if priced at Rs.51

Total Size of the Issue - Rs. 1,245.00 Crs.

IPO GRADING – 5/5 - CRISIL, 5/5 - ICRA – Strong Fundamentals

FAIR VALUE - Rs. 65 - Rs. 70.

KEY FINANCIALS (Consolidated)	FY 2010	FY 2011
Net Interest Income (Rs. in Cr)	726.00	1,039
Net Profit (Rs. in Cr)	242.00	398.00
Net Interest Margin %	7.80	7.10
EPS (Rs.)	1.80	2.80
Price to Book Value (x)	3.60	2.60
Return on Asset %	2.50	2.50
Return on Equity %	21.10	16.30

L&T Finance Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2008 and is a holding company for many of the L&T group companies. It has mainly 2 fully owned non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) – L&T Infrastructure Finance ( which contributes 33 % of its revenues) and L&T Finance (which contributes 66 % of its revenues).  Apart, from these L&TFH owns close to a 5 % stake in Federal Bank and City Union Bank. It also owns L&T Mutual Fund which has an asset base of Rs. 5,200 Cr as of June 2011. The company has a presence in 23 states, with 837 points-of-presence across India. The company’s operations are primarily into 4 business groups namely the Infrastructure Finance Group, the Retail Finance Group, the Corporate Finance Group and the Investment Management Group.  Company intends to use the IPO proceeds for the repayment of intercorporate deposit issued by the parent company L&T about Rs. 345 Crs; infusion of capital in L&T Finance for about Rs. 515 Cr and L&T Infrastructure Finance Company for about Rs. 485 Cr. There is a reservation for employees for Rs. 50 Cr and an additional reservation of Rs. 120 Cr for L&T shareholders, both of would get an Rs. 2.00 discount to the issue price. Out of the total of Rs. 537.5 Cr has been reserved for qualified institutional buyers (QIBs), Rs. 161.25 Cr for non-institutional investors (HNIs) and Rs 376.25 Cr for retail investors. The company had done a pre – IPO placement at Rs. 55/sh and anchor book to have a subscription of Rs. 56/sh, a nearly Rs. 153 cr are committed by anchor investor.

The company got the Infrastructure Financing Status in July 2010 it will benefit to raise more funds, of longer tenors and at lower costs, and in turn to lend more to infrastructure companies. The company's current net worth is around Rs 2,900 crore & post issue net worth including a 30% growth for FY12 would come be around Rs 4,700 crore. The company could be a contender for the banking license with RBI in the process of finalizing guidelines for issue of new banking license; it is believed that L&T group through L&TFH could bid for receiving license. RBI is believed to give banking license to those corporate houses which have market capitalization of more than Rs. 10,000 Cr. L&T comes winner as its promoter stake is less than 25 % and is driven by strong professional management.

Comparisons with Industry as on 31st March 2011

KEY FINANCIALS	FV (Rs.)	EPS (Rs.)	P/E (x)	RoNW %	BV/ Sh (Rs.)
L & T Finance HLDG	10.00	2.87	---	13.58	20.40
Shriram Transport Fin.	10.00	53.92	12.10	24.84	216.37
M&M Financial Ser	10.00	50.92	12.30	19.36	244.70
IDFC	10.00	8.77	15.40	11.39	76.97
REC	10.00	26.18	7.60	20.15	129.90
Pow.Fin.Corp	10.00	23.06	8.30	17.37	132.79
Sundaram Finance	10.00	70.01	7.70	21.53	325.22

According to me the fair value of L&T Finance Holdings Ltd comes to Rs. 65.00 - Rs. 70.00. Off - course it will trade into discount but for long term investors that will be a good opportunity, buy at if it trades below Rs. 55.00.   

SUBSCRIBE FOR LONG TERM & IF FOR TRADING PROSPECTIVE GO FOR IT ON LISTING GAINS......

ZEE Entertainment Enterprises Ltd : Offering growth opportunities !!

Umeed Se Saaje Jindagi

Scrip Code: 505537 / ZEEL
CMP:  Rs. 134.00; Buy at Rs. 120 - 126.00 levels; Short term Target: Rs. 150, 6 Month target – Rs. 200 ; STOP LOSS - Rs.110; Market Cap: Rs. 13,107.11 cr. 

52 Week High/Low: Rs. 164.33 / Rs. 105.80
Total Shares: 97,81,42,930 shares; Promoters : 41,84,72,440 shares –42.79 %; Total Public holding : 55,96,03,690 shares –57.21 %; Book Value: Rs. 29.69; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 5.92; Div: 200 % ; P/E: 27.11 times; Ind P/E: 21.27; EV/EBITDA: 20.48

Total Debt: Rs. 268.01 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 29,409.98 cr

ZEE Entertainment Ltd was founded in the year 1982, based in Mumbai. Company was formerly known as Zee Teleflims Limited and changed its name to Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited in January 2007. ZEEL, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a vertically integrated media and entertainment company in India. It operates in three segments: Broadcasting and Content, Education, and Film Production. The Broadcasting and Content segment develops, produces, and procures television programming and film content, and delivers through satellites, cable, and Internet. It broadcasts channels, such as Hindi general entertainment channels and regional language general entertainment channels, Bollywood channels, sports channels, English entertainment channels, alternate lifestyle channels. Company earns revenues by the way of advertisement and subscription revenues and syndication The Education segment engages in distribution of software learning products; and provides education and training in information technology. The Film Production segment produces and distributes films. The company has a library housing approximately 80,000 hours of television content; and rights to approximately 3,000 movie titles. Effective March 29, 2010, Zee News Ltd. demerged its Regional General Entertainment Channel Business Undertaking and transferred its operation to Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited It has operations in India, the United States, Canada, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand.

Investment Rationale:

Zee - Turner signed a distribution JV with Star-Den which will be a game-changer, as it will significantly increase the bargaining power with local cable operators. Company’s subscriptions will be strong after this JV with Star Den which will also set up a Media Pro Enterprise India which will be 50:50 partnerships between Zee Turner and Star Den Media Services, for combined distribution of TV channels. ZEE and Star networks together controls 40 % - 45 % of viewer ship share.  The JV will be effective from July 2011 and the subscription revenue would be visible from FY13. It is expected that a 17 % Y-o-Y growth will be seen in analog subscription revenue for ZEE in FY13 as against an estimated 5 % growth in FY12. Recently on 19th June 2011, Zee unveiled its new brand identity by a new logo & a new slogan with the objective of taking forward of progressive outlook for the channel. Zee Entertainment Enterprises (ZEEL) announced a share buyback programme that will have a cash outflow of up to Rs. 700 cr. The buyback would be of its fully paid-up equity shares of face value Re.1.00 each, at a price not exceeding Rs. 126.00 per equity share. ZEEL proposes to buyback a minimum of 1.26 crore shares. The Maximum Buyback Size is within the company law limit of 25% of the aggregate of the Company’s paid-up equity capital and free reserves as on March 31, 2010. The aggregate paid up equity share capital and free reserves of the Company as at March 31, 2010 was Rs. 2,818.33 Cr. The date of opening of Buyback offer is July 27, 2011 and will end at March 23, 2012.

Concerns regarding margin pressure:

Margins are likely to be under pressure, it is believed that there could be a pressure on core business margins, as volumes will slowdown coinciding with the ramp-up in original programming hours. Original Programming Hours for the flagship channel like Zee TV has increased from 24 hours per week to 29.5 hours per week and the management targets to increase original programming hour further to 33-35 hours per week by March 2012.  On the contrary, Star Plus is currently running at original programming hours of 40 hours per week while Colors is at 30-31 hours per week.

Outlook & Valuation:

Though there are visible signs of slowdown in ad growth likely due to macro slowdown and a pause in ad spends after the spending of Rs.1,500 cr on cricket season (ICC Cricket World Cup + Indian Premier League). While there is no indication of a cut in ad-budgets as yet, advertisers have turned more cautious, thus impacting advertising volumes. A buy back & 11 % ad revenue growth in FY12 and 12 % growth in FY13 makes a buy in ZEEL with a target price of Rs. 150 The stock trades at 20x FY12E EPS of Rs. 6.70 and 16.5x FY13E EPS of Rs. 8.2 with a price target of Rs. 150 (18x FY13E EPS). I believe that buy back will be EPS accretive by 1.288 %. 

Result Update:

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd (ZEEL) posted 13.28 % decline in its consolidated net profit at Rs. 130.16 Cr for the first quarter ended June 30, 2011. In the same quarter of the previous fiscal, the company’s net profit was Rs. 150.10 Cr. For the three months ended June 30, 2011, the company’s consolidated sales increased 3.14 per cent to Rs 698.30 crore compared with Rs. 676.99 crore in the same quarter of 2010—11. The company’s advertising revenues increased 0.5 % during the quarter to Rs. 378.74 crore (Rs 376.91 crore). As said earlier, with the onset of festival season, the company is expecting to see normalcy in advertising spends. ZEEL’s subscription revenues increased 16.7 % during the first quarter of the current financial year to Rs. 305.09 Cr v/s Rs. 261.42 Cr in the same quarter last fiscal. Zee final Dividend of 200 % i.e Rs. 2.00 on 28th July 2011, AGM on 10th Aug 2011. Book Closure from 30th July 2011 to 5th Aug 2011  

KEY FINANCIALS	FY10	FY11E	FY12E	FY13E
SALES (Rs. crs)	2,196.60	2,941.40	3,238.20	3,674.30
NET PROFIT (Rs. crs)	468.60	570.00	660.20	803.10
EPS (Rs.)	5.20	5.80	6.70	8.20
PE (x)	25.80	23.20	20.00	16.50
P/BV (x)	3.50	3.10	2.80	2.60
EV/EBITDA (x)	21.00	17.10	14.30	12.00
RONW (%)	13.00	13.80	14.40	16.20
ROCE (%)	17.80	19.50	21.2	23.80

I maintain my buy status on ZEE Entertainment Enterprises Ltd with the price target of Rs. 150 in short term. For long term my target is of Rs. 200. As I always say do respect the market and keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 110 on your every purchases.