Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Sunday, October 23, 2011
TALWALKARS BETTER VALUE FITNESS LTD :Spreading Fitness !!!
CMP: Rs. 166.00; Buy at current levels. Short term Target: Rs. 210, 6 month Target – Rs. 250; STOP LOSS – Rs. 152.75; Market Cap: Rs. 400.32 cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 306.80 / Rs. 157.70
Total Shares: 2,41,15,672 shares; Promoters : 1,43,45,856 shares –59.49 %; Total Public holding : 97,69,816 shares – 40.51 %; Book Value: Rs. 51.74; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 6.21; Div: 10.00 % ; P/E: 26.73 times; Ind. P/E: 26.33; EV/EBITDA: 19.00
Total Debt: Rs. 111.38 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 511.70 cr.
TALWALKARS BETTER VALUE FITNESS LTD: The Company was founded in 1932 and is based in Mumbai, India. Talwalkars Better Value Fitness Limited (TBVF) was formerly known as Talwalkars Better Value Fitness Private Limited. The company operates a fitness chain in India. The company offers a suite of services, including gyms, spas, aerobics, nutrition counseling, physiotherapy guidance, yoga classes and health counseling under the ‘Talwalkars’ brand. The Company has an 8,000 square feet residential training academy at Thane. The training academy offers about 4 to 6 weeks of training program for its staff joining at the new centers. As of May 11- 2011, it had 102 health clubs in 52 towns and had more than 75,000 members. Its health clubs/training centers are located in Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
Investment Rationale: Talwalkar Better Value Fitness (TBVF) is the largest health club player in India and amongst top 20 in the world. It is an early entrant into the health club market in India and has been able to build a strong brand name by providing high quality gym equipment and services. The fitness market size in India is estimated to be US$113 mn. The penetration of fitness market in India is 0.4 % taken for top 7 cities which are significantly lower than other nations like China 2.3 % & Japan 3.1 % & 3.7 % in Asia Pacific region. In India - the total number of fitness clubs are around 765 and number of membership are around 23,00,000. The industry is highly fragmented with many standalone gyms. This industry is in the early growth stages with little differentiation and high price sensitivity. A growing economy, growing income, increasing urbanization, improving lifestyle and higher health awareness in India will result in higher penetration of fitness market. As TBVF is the largest player in the market with a strong brand it will be a major beneficiary of this growing market. TBVF has a strong brand name in the health club market in the country. It has been able to provide high quality equipment with good service which has thus enabled it to be a prominent player in the otherwise fragmented market. TBVF is one of the first movers in the industry and has a pan India presence about 50 towns which will enable it to cater to the widespread market. TBVF will increase its owned gyms by double to 143 gyms by FY13. TBVF had raised Rs. 77.40 Cr in 2010 through an IPO to repay its high cost debt of Rs. 20.6 Cr and to fund its expansion plans for 27 gyms for Rs 50.2 Cr. The company has been able to deploy the funds as per expected use and will now require no further dilution for its future growth plans of 35 gyms each by FY13. With no further dilution required and the benefits of expansions to come, the return ratios are going to improve;It is expected that ROE to be around 20 % & ROIC – 13.7 % by FY13. TBVF had a debt-equity ratio of 2.1 x in FY10. Post the IPO the debt-equity has come down to 0.7 x in FY11.
Outlook and Valuation:
In India, as per United Nations the percentage of urban population is going to increase from 30 % in 2010 to 54.2 % by 2050. Increasing urbanization will result in greater usage of fitness club due to higher health awareness and growing lifestyle diseases. India has a young population and it is expected that the population will continue to remain young for the next two decades. Currently 65 % of the population is between the age of 15 - 64 and it is expected that 68 % of the population in 2030 will remain in this age group. It has been globally seen that the people in the age group of 18-54 tend to exercise more. As per TBVF every city/town with a population of 6,00,000 can accommodate one health club of its kind. The growing urbanization will thus increase the number of towns/cities with a population greater than 6,00,000 whereby further expanding the potential market for TBVF. The combination of a young population, higher literacy and increased awareness will result in increased number of people having membership of fitness clubs. As TBVF is one of the major players in the health club market in India with a pan India presence and has a first mover advantage it stands to gain tremendously. TBVF target markets are geographies where the population is greater than 6,00,000. TBVF gets 800-900 members within the first year of operations of the health club and 1,000 members within 18 months. The membership fee is around Rs. 13,000-15,000 p.a. and the payback period for a health club is around 3-4 years. TBVF besides having its own gyms models also has franchisees models. It has 7 franchisees & it charges 6 % - 8 % of revenues as royalty. The company plans to focus on opening more of its own gyms. TBVF in April, 2011 has announced to enter into the Tier III & Tier IV cities with the launch of HiFi Gyms. These gyms will be priced lower than the existing gyms and will have lesser facilities but will have similar operating margins as the current gyms. TBVF is opening 70 new owned gyms during FY12-FY13 across India and these are expected to contribute to the top line and bottom line. TBVF will be able to show CAGR in Revenue/PAT of 41%/38% during FY11-13. TBFV is a play on the growing healthcare market in India. It has a strong brand name and is now capitalizing, with rapid expansion. There are not any listed comparable players and thus its closest comparable peers are the consumption companies like Jubilant Food works, Page Industries, Titan Industries etc which trades at an average PE of 28 x FY13.
At the current market price of Rs. 166.00, the stock is trading at 20.24 x FY12E and 13.07 x FY13E respectively. Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for FY12E and FY13E are seen at Rs. 8.20 and Rs. 12.70 respectively. It is expected that the company will keep its growth story intact in the coming quarters also. One could BUY TALWALKARS BETTER VALUE FITNESS LTD with a target price of Rs. 285.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 210.00
PEER COMPARISON OF TBVF WITH OTHER GYMS
PEER COMPARISON OF TBVF WITH OTHER GYMS
| METRICS | TBVF | GOLD GYM | FITNESS FIRST | FITNESS ONE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of Health Clubs | 100 | 55 | 03 | 31 |
| Size of Gym (Sq ft) | 4,000 - 5,000 | 6,000 - 8,000 | 14,000 - 22,000 | 15,000 - 18,000 |
| Avg.Fees/per annum (appx.) | 14,000 - 16,000 | 16,000 - 18,000 | 24,000 - 35,000 | 16,000 - 18,000 |
| KEY FINANCIALS | FY10 | FY11 | FY12E | FY13E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SALES (Rs. Crs) | 66.10 | 102.30 | 148.50 | 203.90 |
| NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs) | 8.20 | 16.00 | 19.80 | 30.70 |
| EPS (Rs.) | 3.40 | 6.60 | 8.20 | 12.70 |
| PE (x) | 48.30 | 24.50 | 19.90 | 12.80 |
| P/BV (x) | 9.50 | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.30 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 19.00 | 12.20 | 9.10 | 7.00 |
| ROCE (%) | 26.40 | 19.00 | 14.50 | 19.40 |
| RONW (%) | 11.00 | 11.10 | 11.12 | 13.70 |
I would buy TALWALKARS BETTER VALUE FITNESS LTD with a price target of Rs. 210 for the short term and Rs. 285 for the 6 month target. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 152.75 on every purchase.
Saturday, October 22, 2011
INVEST IN GOLD THIS DHANTERAS - In a simple way !!
It’s time again for the Festival of lights – DIWALI – and we as Indians love to celebrate it. Whether it's shopping for new clothes, jewellery, sweets or decoration of homes the festival brings with it excitement and loads of enthusiasm. The first day of DIWALI is celebrated as DHANTERAS - also known as Dhanwantri Triodasi. Dhanteras brings with it the festive mood of DIWALI. Though considered a festival of wealth, it signifies new beginnings & promises for a better future ahead.
The word DHANTERAS is a combination of DHAN means wealth & TERAS means the thirteenth night of the month in which it is celebrated. It is believed that the best day for making purchases of GOLD or any other precious metals should be done on DHANTERAS – as by doing so the goddess of money, LAKSHMI will bless the family throughout the year with prosperity.
On Dhanteras, buying precious metals like gold & silver are considered as good luck and hence major people pick Dhanteras as the day to buy gold, this day there is a splurge on gold jewellery & coins, you can see all the jewellery showrooms filled with buyers - some buy small gold coins or silver coins & some will buy according to their pockets. Apart from its festive significance, an investment in gold is also considered to bring with it a great potential to store value.
But physical gold purchases bring with them purity concerns & safety issues. Also, you stand to lose 10 % - 15 % of the value each time you send your physical gold for remarking, irrespective of whether the gold is certified or not. And there are deductions in the form of making changes. Besides, the exorbitant rates make it difficult to invest a lump sum amount. You have to budget for other expenses too during the festive season.
That’s why this DHANTERAS, there are new alternatives to invest in GOLD ETF’s
ETF’s – Exchange Traded Funds which are listed on NSE. ETF just like mutual funds collect money and invests in the market. GOLD ETF’s collects funds and invests in GOLD. They buy gold physically – so the units are backed by 0.995 finesse gold. When you invest in GOLD ETF you are allotted a unit same as in mutual fund, here 1 unit of GOLD ETF can be 1 gm or 1/2 gm of gold depending on the funds – So Gold ETF are affordable. GOLD ETF’s trade like normal equity shares on exchanges whose prices are in tandem with the domestic gold prices. If you dint have a Demat account you still can invest in GOLD FUNDS like SBI GOLD FUND, Quantum Gold Saving Fund. You can also invest in these ETFs in a Systematic Investment way (SIP) with as low as Rs. 500. JUST call your broker to buy GOLD ETF’s (List of listed ETFs are mentioned below) or just visit your nearest bank and ask for GOLD FUND (if you don’t have a trading account)
LISTED GOLD ETF
Dhanteras sets the festive mood for DIWALI and signifies new beginnings for a better future ahead. This SAMVAT 2068, start the festival of lights with a difference – invest in gold – invest in GOLD ETF.
WISHING ALL MY READER FRIENDS A VERY HAPPY DIWALI & A PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR .........
TILL THEN HAPPY INVESTING
BHAVIKK SHAH
READ MY POST ON ALWAYS BUY GOLD
READ MY POST ON ALWAYS BUY GOLD
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