SHANTHI GEARS LIMITED : STOCK OF TOP GEAR !!!

Scrip Code: 522034 / SHANTIGEAR

CMP:  Rs. 72.10; Buy at current levels.

Short Term Target: Rs. 80.00; Medium to Long Term Target: Rs. 100.00; STOP LOSS – Rs. 66.30; Market Cap: Rs. 590.40 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 75.90 / Rs. 47.55.

Total Shares: 8,17,15,853 shares; Promoters : 5,73,02,913 shares –70.12 %; Total Public holding : 2,44,12,940 shares –29.88 %; Book Value: Rs. 33.33; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 2.04; Dividend: 60.00 %; P/E: 32.03 times; Ind. P/E: 20.85; EV/EBITDA: 9.65.

Total Debt: ZERO; Enterprise Value: Rs. 497.75 Cr.

SHANTHI GEARS LTD: Shanthi Gears Limited was founded in 1969 and was incorporated in 1972. It was earlier known as Shanthi Engineering and Trading Company. The company is headquartered in Coimbatore, India. Form, November 19, 2012, Shanthi Gears Limited operates as a subsidiary of Tube Investments of India Limited. The company came out with an IPO on May 1986 offering 5,32,000 equity shares of Rs. 10 each issued at par. Shanthi Gears Limited engages in designing, manufacturing, and supplying custom and standard gears and gearboxes in India and internationally. The company offers standard worm gear boxes; helical and bevel helical gear boxes; geared motors; cooling tower, extruder, and rolling mill gear boxes; and textile gears and gear assemblies. It also offers custom loose gears, including spur/helical gears, pinion shafts, internal gears, worm and wheel products, straight bevel gears, and spiral bevel gears; and special gearboxes for steel, power, cement, sugar, mining, paper, and marine sectors. The company has two divisions: Gears Division and Gear Box Division. Its Gear Division caters to the needs of textile and other industries as the supplier of the original equipment and Gear Box Division undertakes the design and manufacture of gear boxes for various industries. Shanthi Gears Ltd is locally compared with Elecon Engineering Ltd, Cummins India Ltd, L.G. Balakrishnan Ltd, Suzlon Energy Ltd, Kirloskar Brothers, Premier Ltd, Birla Machining and Tooling Ltd, Dynamatic Technology Ltd, AIA Engineering Ltd, HMT Ltd and globally compared with Caterpillar Inc of USA, Cummins Inc of USA, Eaton Corporation Plc of Ireland, Navistar International Corporation of USA, WABCO Holdings of Belgium, Howden Africa Holding Ltd of Africa, Industrial Holdings Bulgaria, China Automation Group of China, Trinity Precision Technology Company Ltd of Taiwan, Focus Dynamics Technologies Berhad of Malaysia and Woorim Machinery Company limited of South Korea, Fuji Hensokuki Co., Ltd of Japan.

Investment Rationale:

SHANTHI GEARS LTD was founded in 1962 and is a part of Rs. 22,314 Crores Murugappa Group, one of India's leading business conglomerates. The Group has 28 businesses including eight listed Companies. Shanthi Gears is leading organized player in the industrial gear segment in India. It manufactures wide range of critical components involved in power transmission like Gears, Gear boxes, Gear motors and Gear assemblies. The company is strongly positioned in the custom made gears and gear boxes with about 70‐75 % of revenues coming from customized products catering industries like steel, textiles, power, chemical, rubber, paper, mining, cement, sugar etc. It operates from five fully integrated manufacturing units and one foundry division located in Coimbatore. The Gear Industry is segmented into Automotive and Non‐Automotive (Industrial) gear industry. The Automotive gear segment consumes the largest size of the industry pie. The Industrial Gear industry usually includes manufacturing of Gears, Gear boxes, Gear Motors and Gear assemblies. The Gears and gear boxes are categorized as Standard (non‐customized) and Non‐standard (Customized) which are manufactured by organized, unorganized and international players. Industrial gear caters mainly to the needs of sectors like steel, cement, Textiles, Power, Sugar, Paper, Mining, etc. Notably, non‐standard segment includes custom built gears and loose gears as well. The Indian industrial gear market is mostly dominated by manufacturers of Standard (non‐customized) Gears and Gear boxes as manufacturing of non‐standard (customized) gears requires high end expensive technology, skills and facilities to deliver to the specific needs of different clients in a short span of time. According to FY13 Annual report of Shanthi Gears, the Standard gearboxes constitute about 35 % of the market and are growing approximately at over 10 % CAGR, while the non‐standard (customized) gear box constitute over 75 % and is growing below the Industry average. Shanthi Gears has fully integrated and the largest modern gear making facilities in India with infrastructure for fabrication and engineering, in‐house foundry and forging facilities and tool room for gear cutting. The facilities of the Shanthi Gears are up to the mark step-up when compared to its peers. These contains CAD work stations, state‐of‐the‐art manufacturing and quality control machines and equipment, in‐house pattern making, castings including bronze wheel rings, forgings, fabrication, heat treatment, etc. This along with a strong R&D, technology up gradation and skill up gradation of its manpower has enabled the Shanthi Gears to maintain its designing and manufacturing edge over its competitors. Shanthi Gears currently has five Units out of which one is vacant and others carry out operations such as Manufacture of components & gears for the textile industry these units account for 10 % of the sales; Engineering Unit which accounts for 90 % of the sales; CSR Unit; Foundry unit. The product range of the company is segmented into standard (non‐customized) and non‐standard (customized) gears and gear boxes. The standard (non‐customized) gears account for 35 % of the total revenue with an operating margin between the levels of 10 % ‐ 15 % and the rest is customized gears, which constitutes 75 % of the revenue with high operating margins between the levels of 30‐35%. Unlike other domestic gear manufacturers, Shanthi Gears focuses on the customized gears and ensures that its factory utilization is not more than 85 % to take advantage of urgent and emergency orders. Unlike most of its competitors, Shanthi Gears has been able to maintain operating margins at all times due to its product mix, and the relatively lower raw material costs incurred for custom built gearboxes. Shanthi Gears Ltd is a market leader in the customized gears space with operating margins in excess of 25‐30 %, as compared to 15‐17 % for Elecon Engineering which is the biggest player in the overall gears industry. Elecon engineering despite having a market share of 30 % is commanding lower operating margins due to lower presence of 20 % in customized products which usually yield higher margins and higher raw material imports. Shanthi Gears has Seven wind mills in one of its manufacturing unit with an Agreement with Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB). The seven wind mills have a total power generating capacity of 6.66 MW. The power generated through the wind mills is used for captive purpose and the surplus is sold to Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB). The company also has power linkages with total sanctioned power of 6500 kva and own diesel gensets with a capacity of 8500kva. The possession of captive wind mills and power linkages is likely to help company save on power cost and fuel costs. Currently, power and fuel cost comprises of 8 % of the total costs.

Outlook and Valuation:

Shanthi Gears is the unique gateway to a wide range of power transmission products which includes gears, gear boxes, geared motors and gear assemblies both standard and custom-made. With headquarters at Coimbatore, South India, we are in the business of designing, manufacturing and supplying various kinds of gears, gearboxes to almost all industries and applications for the past four decades. Nearly, two years back, Tube Investment of India Ltd a flagship company of Murugappa group acquired 3.6 Cr equity shares or 44.12 % stake in Shanthi Gears for Rs. 292 Cr at Rs. 81 per share. Tube Investment further acquires 2,12,46,122 equity shares or 26% of Shanthi gears via open offer price of Rs. 81, with this addition Tube Investment of India Ltd now holds 5,72,96,413 or 70.12 % of Shanthi Gears. Tube investments acquired Shanthi Gears mainly for reasons like : to take itself to a higher level of engineering; to synergize the transmission business with its chain business; to create an opportunity for both exports and supply for offset requirements which is expected to become huge in India; due to Shanthi Gear’s strong balance sheet, cash, surplus land, engineering skills; to foray into sectors like defense and aerospace; to reduce its reliance on auto sector which is facing various challenges; to get access to company’s large customer base. On the contrary, Shanthi Gears benefited from this acquisition like now shanthi gear has headroom for growth and trap the opportunities in engineering sector; it can now access to stronger hands i.e. Murugappa group. The Indian industrial gear market depends heavily on imports i.e. 40 % imports, especially for highend gears. The rupee depreciated to Rs. 68.8/US$ in H2FY14 and is now stable at the levels of Rs. 60‐61/US$. It is believed that rupee which has depreciated almost 15 % from the levels of Rs. 47‐48/US$ more than two years back, is not expected to reach those levels soon. So it is expected that with rupee depreciation making imports costlier, import substitution is likely to take place. Other companies are likely to prefer buying gears domestically from branded companies like Shanthi Gears. Also, on raw material front, other companies which import its high amount of raw materials are expected to pass on the costlier import’s price on their final products to customers, whereas Shanthi Gears which imports merely 2 % of its raw material is likely to pass on no/marginal price hike on its final products. This makes Shanthi gears again a customer’s preferred choice. Going forward, the outlook for Shanthi Gears looks positive with fully integrated modern facilities, high presence in customized gears (non‐standard gears), fewer dependence on imported raw materials, investments in wind mills and power linkages to aid margins. Also, with exposure across various industries, management’s effort to bring back old niche clients and introduction of new standard products to lead in diversity of clientele, Uptick in investment cycle to provide the company ample opportunities to grow and Tube Investments of India’s acquisition to create synergies between both companies, the company financial prospects look bright. Adding to the above triggers, the company has strong balance sheet, cash, surplus land, improving ROE. At the current market price of Rs. 72.10, the stock is trading at a PE of 29.91 x FY14E and 22.18 x FY15E respectively as against the Indusrty PE of 21x. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 2.41 in FY14E and Rs. 3.25 in FY15E. One can buy SHANTHI GEARS LIMITED with a target price of Rs. 100.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 80.00.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY12	FY13	FY14E	FY15E
SALES (₹ Crs)	173.00	145.65	156.25	175.00
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	28.11	15.47	19.72	26.59
EPS (₹)	3.44	1.89	2.41	3.25
PE (x)	11.18	29.87	28.59	21.20
P/BV (x)	1.27	1.79	2.12	2.03
EV/EBITDA (x)	3.74	9.44	10.54	7.99
ROE (%)	11.34	6.01	7.42	9.56
ROCE (%)	19.33	11.81	11.63	12.61

I would buy SHANTHI GEARS LTD for Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 100.00 and for the shorter term the target would be Rs. 80.00. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of ₹ 66.30 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

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RETURN ON CAPITAL

CONTAINER CORPRATION OF INDIA LTD : A VALUED PSU !!!

Scrip Code: 531344 / CONCOR

CMP:  Rs. 939.45; Buy at current levels and buy at every dips.

Short Term Target: Rs. 985.00; Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 1050; STOP LOSS – Rs. 864.30; Market Cap: Rs. 18,316.85 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 989.00 / Rs. 637.51

Total Shares: 19,49,74,191 shares; Promoters : 12,04,88,508 shares – 61.80 %; Total Public holding : 7,44,85,683 shares – 38.20 %; Book Value: Rs. 359.99; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 49.47; Dividend: 175.00 %; P/E: 18.99 times; Ind. P/E: 19.48; EV/EBITDA: 10.51.

Total Debt: ZERO; Enterprise Value: Rs. 15,396.63 Cr.

CONTAINER CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED: The Company was incorporated in 1988 and is based in New Delhi, India. Container Corporation of India Limited operates in the Railroads, line-haul operating sector. It provides multimodal logistics support services for export and import, and domestic trade and commerce in India. The company came with an IPO in 1994 as a part of Government of India’s disinvestments of 20% of its equity, offering 1,29,97,200 Shares of Rs. 10 each issued at average weighted price of Rs. 76.71 per share. In the year 2008 and 2013, the company issued Bonus Shares in the ratio of 1:1 and 1:2 respectively. CONCOR, primarily engages in carrier business, as well as provides freight transportation services by rail and road and providing inland transport by rail for containers, ports, air cargo complexes and cold chains. The company’s business includes three distinct activities, that of a Carrier, and container terminal operator and warehouse operator - which provides various facilities, including warehousing, container parking, repair facilities, and office complexes. In addition, it operates in two divisions – EXIM & Domestic, both the divisions provides services including transit warehousing for import and export cargo; bonded warehousing, enabling importers to store cargo and take partial deliveries; less than container load (LCL) consolidation, and reworking of LCL cargo at nominated hubs; and air cargo clearance using bonded trucking. All the activities of the company revolve around this business and all its operation are in India. As of March 31, 2011, the company operated a fleet of approximately 15,579 containers, 55 reach stackers, 14 gantry cranes, and 61 container terminals of which 18 are export-import container deports and 13 domestic container depots, as well as 10,666 wagons. CONCOR is compared to Gati Ltd and Allcargo Logistics Limited nationally and Globally compared with AMERCO of USA, Arkansas Best Corp of USA, Con-Way Inc of Michigan, CSX Corporation of USA, Quality Distribution Inc of USA, Roadrunner Transportation Systems Inc of USA, Dazhong Transportation Group of China, East Japan Railway Company of Japan, Evergreen International Storage & Transport Corp of Taiwan, Hamakyorex Co Ltd of Japan, Fukuyama Transporting Co Ltd of Japan, Express Transindo Utama Tbk of Indonesia, BTS Group Holdings Public Company Ltd of Thailand Bangkok Metro Public Company Ltd of Thailand, CJ Korea Express Corporation of South Korea, Aurizon Holdings Ltd of Australia, VTG Aktiengesellschaft of Germany, Go-Ahead Group Plc of UK, National Express Group Plc of UK, Northgate Plc of UK, Stagecoach Group Plc of UK, Six Societas Europaea of Germany .

Investment Rationale:

Container Corporation of India is one of the largest multimodal logistics players in India. Currently, the company operates 63 Inland Container Depots (ICDs) across the country. CONCOR was established with the prime objective of developing containerised multimodal door-to-door transportation for India’s Exim and domestic trades. The core business is characterised by three different activities — carrier, operating terminals and warehousing operations. The carrier (rail transportation) is the major revenue driver as the company derives 75 % of total revenue from it. The Indian Multimodal scene has witnessed the advent of multiple container train operators since 2006. Presently, there are 15 container train operators along with CONCOR who have signed Concession Agreements with Indian Railways for running of Container Trains for a period of 20 years, extendable by another 10 years. Almost all the 15 players have commenced their train services. Some of these players have set up their own terminal facilities also. While the operations of the new entrants to the business started in a limited way by two operators in April 2007, the number has now grown to 15 excluding CONCOR and the volumes being transported by these operators have continuously grown with the induction of new rakes. These operators have been using Goods Sheds-terminals of Indian Railways as well, for their operations. The changes in the external business environment, placed emphasis on providing total logistics and transport solutions to its customers by exploring the possibilities of expanding the segments of the transport value chain in the EXIM as well as Domestic segments. CONCOR is hunting for the possibilities for strategic alliances, both for the optimal utilization of infrastructure as well as for expansion into other segments of the value chain. Logistics calls for an understanding, of the total supply chain, the elements of which include inventories, packing, forwarding, freight, storage and handling. Logistics is responsible for all the movement that takes place within the organization whether it is inbound logistics of incoming, raw materials or movement within the company or the physical distribution of finished goods. Typical logistics framework mainly consists of Physical Supply, Internal Operations and Physical Distribution of Goods and Services. To put it more simply, the material supply logistics starts from the base level of “generation of the demand”, through the “process of purchase” and “supply of material from the vendor” right through to “final acceptance” and “payments to the supplier” and “issue to the indenter” and has to be considered as a “one whole activity” with each stage having an impact on price & cost of material supply. Logistics is, in itself, a system; it is a network of related activities with the purpose of managing the orderly flow of material and personnel within the logistics channel. Logistics is not confined to manufacturing operation alone. It is relevant to all enterprises, including Govt. institutions such as Hospitals and schools and service organization such as retailers, banks and financial service organizations. The study of logistics is especially important for bulk raw materials, where substantial outflow of freight is involved. Management of Logistics is an art which is extremely difficult to perfect in India, JIT- just in time ends up being SHIT - somehow in time. The study of logistics is important to establish a lean supply chain which would give an advantage of quick product change over, capability, excellent short and long term forecast visibility and JIT capability. Indian Railways has proposed the creation of a dedicated freight corridor, solely for carrying freight trains, including containers. The dedicated freight corridor is proposed to come up by December 2017, although it is believed that this target could be delayed by one to two years. According to the proposal, on the western side, JNPT- Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust would be linked to the key Inland Container Deport (ICD) in the National Capital Region (NCR), such as Tuglaqabad and Dadri and further north in Ludhiana. Also, an eastern corridor would connect Ludhiana with Kolkata via the NCR. Currently, only 30 % of India’s EXIM container traffic takes place through rail, while the balance takes place via roadways. With the creation of the dedicated freight corridor, India could also inch closer to the global benchmark of rail/road market share, given that the rail movement of cargo is much cheaper compared with that of road. As such, players in the sector, such as CONCOR, would stand to benefit significantly upon the implementation of the dedicated freight corridor. CONCOR has the huge potential opportunity to ramp-up post creation of dedicated freight corridor. The vastness of India has resulted in manufacturing and consumption centres in the country being geographically apart, necessitating the transportation of cargo. Moreover, ports that are entry & exit points for EXIM cargo are located at distances ranging from 200 kilometres to 3,000 kilometres from manufacturing & consumption centres. However, because of their proximity to Western countries which nearly accounts for a large share of India’s foreign trade, ports on the western coast of India have managed to acquire a majority of the country’s overall EXIM container traffic (based on data from IPA), while major consumption and manufacturing centres are primarily located in north India. Hence, the majority of container traffic movement takes place between western ports and north India. According to industry estimates, these routes account for about 65-70% of overall container traffic.

Outlook and Valuation:

Container Corporation of India Ltd popularly known as CONCOR is engaged in the business of transportation through containerized cargo & trade. CONCOR has been awarded with ‘IT Innovation & Excellence Award 2012’ by Knowledge Resource Development & Welfare Group (KRDWG) for Excellence in Application of MIS in Industry. The company has commissioned two new Terminals at Khodiyar for EXIM & Nagulapally for Domestic traffic. Recently, the government of India has transferred 25,11,195 equity shares of CONCOR along with the shares of selected  9 listed entities to CPSE ETF, which is similar to disinvestment. This share has been transferred to the recently launched Goldman Sachs Mutual Funds Central Public Sector Enterprise ETF, which got listed on 4 April 2014. CONCOR has weightage of 6.40 % in this CPSE ETF consisting of 10 public sector enterprise. Company has shown better performance last quarter, Container Corp of India’s 3QFY14 standalone Net Sales grew by 15 % to Rs. 1,240 Cr, EBITDA grew 9 % to Rs. 286 Cr and PAT grew 6 % to Rs. 250 Cr YoY. Company’s 9 month FY14, Sales grew 16 %, its EBITDA grew 6 %, and its PAT grew 3 % YoY. EXIM volumes were down 1.5 % QoQ and its realization dipped 2 % QoQ driven by weak EXIM trade. However, decrease in EXIM imbalance moderated the segmental PBIT decline to 2 % QoQ. Better traction in the domestic trade was seen its Domestic volumes rose 6.4 % QoQ on company’s aggressive move to acquire customers. It has been running trains in the North ‐ East and North ‐ South routes. The East to North route has been less remunerative for CONCOR due to higher empty running costs in this leg. Earlier CONCOR denied cargo for this route which the management said that they have opened up for customers on marginal cost basis thereby driving its domestic volume growth. The management expects to maintain 8 % ‐ 9 % of segmental PBIT margin in the domestic segment going forward Capex update. During 9MFY14, CONCOR bought 6 new rakes. It would further add 4 rakes in 4QFY14. Company has also acquired land at two places – Nagpur and Raipur towards the PFTs/MMLPs. CONCOR targets its capex of Rs. 1,100 Cr in FY14E and Rs. 6,000 Cr during FY14‐17E which are on track. CONCOR can see 9.5 % & 11 % volume CAGR in the EXIM & Domestic segments during FY13-FY15E period. During the last 9 years, the CONCOR has traded at median P/E multiple of 14.2 x, P/B multiple of 2.9 x and EV/EBITDA multiple of 10.8 x. During these last 8 years, its return ratios have almost halved from 30 % to 15 % as private container operators gained market share thereby intensifying competition while EXIM trade slowed down. At the current market price of Rs. 939.45, the stock is trading at a PE of 14.25 x FY14E. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 65.90 in FY14E and Rs. 70 in FY15E. One can buy CONCOR with a target price of Rs. 1050.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 985.00.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY12	FY13	FY14E	FY15E
SALES (₹ Crs)	4,061.00	4,406.20	5,025.70	5,732.60
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	930.00	940.00	1,005.70	1,135.10
EPS (₹)	47.70	48.21	51.58	58.22
PE (x)	20.30	20.10	18.80	16.70
P/BV (x)	3.40	3.00	2.70	2.40
EV/EBITDA (x)	15.80	15.30	13.70	11.70
ROE (%)	16.60	15.90	15.10	15.30
ROCE (%)	24.00	21.70	20.80	21.30

I would buy CONTAINER CORPRATION OF INDIA LTD for Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 1050 and for the shorter term the target would be Rs. 985.00. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of ₹ 864.30 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

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RETURN ON CAPITAL

THOMAS COOK INDIA LTD : WILL FLY HIGHER AND HIGHER !!!

Scrip Code: 500413 / THOMASCOOK

CMP:  Rs. 100.00; Buy at current levels and at every Dips.

Short term Target: Rs. 110.00; Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 120; STOP LOSS – Rs. 92.00; Market Cap: Rs. 2,476.80 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 106.00 / Rs. 47.70

Total Shares: 24,76,80,897 shares; Promoters : 18,56,53,725 shares – 74.96 %; Total Public holding : 6,20,27,172 shares – 25.04 %; Book Value: Rs. 20.19; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 2.51; Dividend: 37.50 %; P/E: 39.84 times; Ind. P/E: 40.04; EV/EBITDA: 15.16.

Total Debt: 186.26; Enterprise Value: Rs. 2,456.54 Cr.

THOMAS COOK (INDIA) LIMITED: The Company was founded in 1881 and was incorporated in 1978, based in Mumbai, India. Thomas Cook (India) Limited is a former subsidiary of TCIM Limited, United Kingdom. Thomas Cook (India) Limited provides foreign exchange services, and travel and travel related services in India and internationally. The company came with an IPO in Dec 1982 offering 2,80,000 Shares of Rs. 10 each issued at par. The company’s foreign exchange services include retail purchase of foreign currencies and travellers’ cheques; bulk purchase-sale of foreign currencies from-to authorized dealers, money changers, and franchisees; release-remittance of foreign exchange; and encashment of mail-telegraphic transfers, demand drafts, and other forex instruments. The company’s foreign exchange services also consist of collection of foreign currency instruments drawn on banks; provision of Indian rupee-foreign currency advances against credit cards; and provision of travel related foreign exchange and payment solutions. It offers foreign exchange and payment solutions for leisure and business travellers, students going abroad for higher studies, people travelling for employment, medical treatment, emigration, etc. The company also offers travel related services comprising outbound, inbound, corporate, and domestic travel services; and meetings, incentives, conferences, and events. In addition, it provides travel insurance services, and visa and passport services. Further, the company operates its online portal thomascook.in that offers a range of travel and travel related solutions to its customers; and provides post graduate diploma in management in international business focusing on tourism. Thomas Cook’s Subsidiaries include: Travel Corporation (India) Ltd, TC Visa Services (India) Ltd, Thomas Cook Insurance Services (India) Ltd, Indian Horizon Travel & Tours Ltd, Thomas Cook Lanka (Private) Ltd, Thomas Cook Tours Ltd, Thomas Cook (Mauritius) Holding Company Ltd, Thomas Cook (Mauritius) Holidays Ltd, Thomas Cook (Mauritius) Travel Ltd, Thomas Cook (Mauritius) Operation Co Ltd. Currently, it has presence over 245 locations including 23 airport counters in 100 cities across India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka and is supported by strong partner network of 133 Gold Circle partners and 165 preferred sales agents in over 150 cities across India. On pan India level, the company has office located at Mumbai, Pune, New Delhi, Gurgaon, Chandigarh, Agra, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Baroda, Bhubhaneshwar, Chennai, Cochin, Goa, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Jalandhar, Kolkata, Trivandrum and Vishakapatnam. With over 133 years of presence in India TCIL is focused on providing a broad spectrum of travel-related services that include foreign exchange, corporate travel, leisure travel, and insurance. The company’s overseas subsidiaries offices are located at Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Germany, France, Spain, Canada, UK, USA, Australia, Japan, Korea and China. The company has employee strength of over 3000 people. Thomas Cook India Ltd is locally compared with Cox & Kings Ltd, International travel Ltd, Trade Wings Ltd, Sharyans Resources Ltd, Ace Tours Worldwide Ltd and Globally compared with Star Travel Corporation of Taiwan, Reliance Pacific Berhad of Malaysia, Eurasia Travel Company Ltd of Japan, Phoenix Tours International Inc of Taiwan, Zhanqjiajie Tourism Co of China, Xi’an Toursim Co. Ltd of China, Nikko Travel Co., Ltd of Japan, Karambunai Corporation Berhad of Malaysia, E-2 Capital Holding Ltd of Hong Kong, Travel Expert (Asia) Enterprises Ltd of Hong Kong, Sanbumi Holdings Berhad of Malaysian, South China Holdings Ltd of Hong Kong.

Investment Rationale:

Thomas Cook India Limited is the leading integrated travel & travel related financial services company in the country offering a broad spectrum of services that include foreign exchange, corporate travel MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Events), leisure travel, insurance, visa & passport services and E – business. It is one of the largest corporate travel agents having more than 700 clients. Thomas Cook India is being in operation for the last 133 years with robust business model. Since it went public 31 years ago, Thomas Cook has never suffered a loss, never skipped a dividend, but have only experienced a revenue decline in past 3 years. Thomas Cook India has a dominant position of share of more than 50 % in India's foreign currency bank notes exchange business which witness an volume of $1.8 billion from 2012. Both the forex and travel businesses have enduring competitve advantages and hug synergies which enables Thomas Cook India Ltd to deliver Free Cash Flow/Tangible Networth of more than 24 % a year. In, May 2012, Thomas Cook India Limited was acquired by Fairbridge Capital (Mauritius), a wholly owned subsidiary of Toronto based listed Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd which is a financial services holding company with a global presence in insurance and reinsurance and has a portfolio of assets in excess of $30 billion invested worldwide and a company, founded by Prem Watsa. Fairbridge Capital acquired 77.10 % stake amounting to Rs. 817.4 Cr stake in Thomas Cook India Ltd which then amounted to around Rs. 50 per share. Thereafter it increased the stake to 87.1 % through open offer at Rs. 65 per share. This subsequently reduced the stake to 75 % post QIP placement in May 2013 to comply with minimum public shareholding norm. Fairbridge paid 10 times to free cash flow of Thomas Cook after adjusting for its undervalue real estate assets. Fairbridge is responsible for execution of acquisition and investment opportunities in the Indian sub-continent on behalf of Fairfax family of companies. Fairfax has made its intention clear to use Thomas Cook India Ltd as Fairfax's investment vehicle in India for acquiring other great businesses. This acquisition by Fairfax is the third change in promoter ownership at Thomas Cook India Ltd in the past seven years. In 2005, Dubai Financial Services acquired 77 % stake in Thomas Cook India Ltd, which was later acquired by Thomas Cook UK (75 %) back from Dubai Financial Services in 2008 and then finally acquired by Fairfax in 2012. The management will be the same and the brand name “THOMAS COOK” would be retained for 12.5 years. Under the leadership of Fairbridge, on February 2014, Thomas Cook India took over Chennai based Sterling Holiday Resorts India Ltd and merged its operations with it. The merger with Sterling Holiday Resorts India Ltd in a deal valued at Rs. 870 Cr in part cash part equity. This merger has created India’s largest holiday company. The deal is structured in a multi-stage process in which 100 shares of Sterling was swapped for 120 shares of Thomas Cook (India). Thomas Cook, in a statement, said it will first make a preferential allotment for 23.24 % of Sterling Holiday at Rs. 90.49 a share amounting to about Rs. 187 Cr and will then purchase another 23.63 % of Sterling Holidays for Rs. 176 Cr from Sterling’s existing shareholders- Bay Capital which holds 13.67 %, ex-CEO of Alchemy Amit Goela owns 2.35 %, Ramanathan owns 2.86 %, Siddharth Shankar, Dhanalaxmi S holds 1.00 %, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 3.67 % & Radhakrishna Damani via Birght Star Investments Pvt Ltd holds 6.47 % at Rs. 98 a share. This will be followed by a third stage of mandatory open offer for buying up to 26 % stake for Rs. 230 Cr. The merger is expected to close by the fourth quarter of 2014, will give Thomas Cook access to Sterling Resorts' 19 properties in 16 holiday destinations across India. The total value of the merged entity will be equivalent to Rs. 3,000 Cr with 9,000 employees. The Sterling Holiday Resorts India Ltd has member base of 70,000 and the overall room nights for Sterling Holiday Resorts India Ltd have increased from 1,58,000 in 2010-11 to 2,01,000 in 2012-13 with an average occupancy of 43 % up from 19 % in the same period. For a travel services company to start providing hotels stay is an vertical integration and Thomas Cook would be benefited by channelizing the traffic of customers it helps to plan holidays. It should also be noted here that these two businesses are quite different, as one is asset light model and other is an asset heavy one, further, the aspect of utilisation of rooms will now become the prime concern. Thomas Cook is a free cash flow business. As the cash flow comes and people will invest it in and some more money from abroad will come to India.

Outlook and Valuation:

Thomas Cook India Ltd is one of India’s top three travel service providers and the country’s largest non-banking foreign exchange dealer, with an Authorized Dealer Category II license from the RBI. The forex and travel services businesses complement each other by creating marketing and distribution synergies as well as cross-selling opportunities and scale benefits. The company has a strong backing of the promoter group the FairFax group promoted by Prem Wastsas and he has experience of over 25 years & has demonstrated a strong financial track record to achieve an annual appreciation in Book Value per Share of 24.7 % annually. He is also known as Warren Buffet of Canada. Tours & Travels industry is a major contributor to the world’s major economy’s including India. In Asia Pacific region specifically, the direct contribution of Travel and Tourism to the region’s GDP in 2012 was USD 614 billion (2.7% of GDP) and is estimated to be at USD 646 billion in 2013. India and China are expected to emerge as two of the leading tourism markets in next 10 years. (Source: World Travel & Tourism Council). The industry is showing signs of recovery following the last economic recession, which saw falling demand for tourism activity as consumers postponed trips to concentrate their household budgets on more essential areas. As disposable incomes rise and a social trend towards travelling and exploring new destinations grows, the global tourism industry is attracting greater number of consumers eager to travel and experience life in other countries or just optimize time off work to unwind by taking holidays. Currently, only one million Indians annually travel outside India for holidays. This compares to some 40 million outbound tourists in China and hundreds of millions of outbound tourists in western world. Industry analysts believe that an increase in vacation ownership will also depend upon the prevailing economic climate. Membership growth has been sluggish and that is because of the current financial climate. A person will invest a few lakh rupees in time-share holidays and vacation ownership if he has surplus cash. Indian economy is witnessing auto sales falling and the property market not moving. These factors have an impact on the resort business. Sterling Holiday was passing through trying times with high debt till Bay Capital took it over in 2009. Since then, the company has been making a return of sorts by refurbishing its resorts. It has increased occupancy levels to 52 % from a lowest of 16 % a few years back. And with the two rounds of equity infusion helped the company repay debt and renovate existing properties. Thomas Cook owns 15 properties and 124 are leased/licensed. Thomas Cook is monetizing its valuable real estate assets, it owns a number of valuable real estate assets having a combined value of more than Rs. 200 Cr which includes: The Thomas Cook Building at Fort, Mumbai of about 50,000 sq. ft.; The Travel Corporation of India office at Nariman Point, Mumbai of about 15,000 sq. ft.; The Thomas Cook office in Chembur of 10,000 sq. ft.; The Gurgaon office at Udyog Vihar of 40,000 sq. ft.; and company owned 30 other branch offices. Built in early 1900s, it is a ground plus four storey structure in the heritage precinct of Fort area. TCIL might have to secure approval of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai for selling the building as it is a lessee of the civic body. TCIL is also looking to divest its 15,000-sq-ft property in Nariman Point and a 10,000-sq-ft property in Chembur, where it is looking at values of Rs. 25,000-30,000 and Rs. 15,000 per sq. ft. respectively, for outright sale. Realty consultant JLL (Jones Lang LaSalle) has been appointed to monetise the properties. TCIL is looking to shift its offices to one of the places such as Lower Parel, Dadar, Bandra Kurla Complex or Andheri and is likely to take a decision in the next few months. Though the timing of the monetisation of these real estate properties is uncertain, whenever it materializes, it could result in value unlocking for the shareholders. This could be in the form of higher dividend pay-outs. Thomas Cook’s average dividend pay-out over the last five years stands at 19.1 %, which is on a lower side. However, it is to be noted, that the growth of the company’s business is purely dependent upon the global & domestic economic growth. Even during times of a sharp slowdown in the global economy, Thomas Cook continued to pay dividends, despite its business getting impacted. Over the last five years from 2008 to 2013, the dividend paid as a % to FV has remained constant at 37.5 %. Going forward, it is expect that the company will continue to reward its shareholders with consistent dividend payments. There is a possibility of a sharp increase in dividend pay-outs (though it could be one time), if the sale of real estate assets materializes. Thomas Cook is a cash rich company with low debt equity, which provides margin of safety especially during high interest rate scenario. It is expected that its IKYA to contibute around 35 % to its revenues. Even if we value IKYA at cost at Rs. 256 Cr but its still worth more, management is implementing cost rationalisaton plans and taking the conservative value of Rs. 200 Cr of its surplus real estates, Thomas Cook is an attrative buy. At the current market price of Rs. 100.00, the stock is trading at a PE of 28.57 x FY14E. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 3.50 in FY14E, which is at a significant premium to its nearest competitor Cox & Kings. However, this is justified, considering huge debt burden in Cox & Kings books. Thomas Cook’s strong balance sheet position and its future growth prospects makes stock to continue to trade at a premium to its peers. One can buy THOMAS COOK INDIA LTD with a target price of Rs. 120.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 110.00. And I believe its 2 year long target could be Rs. 220.00. 

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12	FY13	FY14E
SALES (₹ Crs)	381.30	415.40	1,277.53	1,466.33
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	56.24	50.44	62.22	87.40
EPS (₹)	2.71	2.40	2.64	3.50
PE (x)	23.70	26.50	22.70	17.80
P/BV (x)	3.40	3.10	2.30	2.10
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.90	9.90	9.30	7.40
ROE (%)	14.33	11.50	10.10	11.60
ROCE (%)	18.10	17.30	15.70	17.90

I would buy THOMAS COOK INDIA LTD for Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 120 and for the shorter term the target would be Rs. 110.00. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of ₹ 92.00 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

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SHARING THOUGHTS ON MY BIRTHDAY !!!

Hello Reader Friends !!
It's my Birthday today, grown a year older,

I've learned quite a few things about what to take or leave behind in past couple of years. I've accumulated quite a few truth's, stories, some you know and some that are still to be told on life and markets. I was thinking about everything that has happened since my last birthday and I’m amazed that it was much an happening whole year of mine and am happy about it. I was wondering whether to publish this note on blog or not - but later decided that this blog was made with a purpose to present my views and now it has become the reflection of my mind and thoughts..........and so I felt to let my thoughts flow............. 

Life is good. Business is good. I love my job. I currently work for an wealth management firm in Mumbai and now, I’m a financial commentator and a writer too, I feel younger now than I did 10 years back. These days, I wake up excited about what I’m going to spend my day doing, which stock it would be and why, what's up with so and so company or a stock. I help people for a living and making them understand the complexity of markets, helping small world of mine consisting friends and well wishers to invest better and invest sensibly. It’s now, my only function or I should say has become my passion. Most of what I do is search, research and analyse and communicate my findings – in meetings, on phone calls, in emails, on the blog, on the web. Discussing about that scrip I like or about my views on macro & micro economics. I have realised that this is what I was meant to do. I love to spent long hours on balance sheets and financial reports and discussing it with my friends and colleagues, I love to know the business I am buying. It once happened that in 2007, one of my friend lost his fortune on a so called "Tips" from his broker, this made me think, on why can't one just be sensible in investing, why cant they know what they are buying and a thought to make people an investor and not an trader made me to started writing my blog...its been Seven years now, and I am trying my best to protect my fellow investor friends. Now all I have to do is to remind myself of it when the going gets rough.......

As of today, I am regret-free and thankful for both, the bad and the good experiences that taught me what I needed to know and I am still learning.... 

I take this opportunity to give Thanks to all my reader friends for being there for me...

                                                               God Bless You All !!!

Thanks to my parents who sculptured my thoughts and to making me who I am today !!!

And lastly, Thanks god for all of it !!!

Warm Regards,
Bhavikk Shah.

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