The Indian Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector is the fourth largest in the Indian economy and has a market size of $1,310 Cr. This industry primarily includes the production, distribution and marketing of consumer packaged goods, that is those categories of products which are consumed at regular intervals. The FMCG market is set to treble $3,340 Cr in 2016. Penetration level as well as per capita consumption in most product categories like jams, toothpaste, skin care, hair wash etc in India is low indicating the untapped market potential. The Indian FMCG industry represents nearly 2.5 % of the country’s GDP. The industry has tripled in size in past 10 years and has grown at 17 % CAGR in the last 5 years driven by rising income levels, increasing urbanization, strong rural demand and favourable demographic trends. Food products and personal care together make up two-third of the sector’s revenues. Rural India accounts for more than 70 Cr consumers or 70 % of the Indian population and accounts for 50 % of the total FMCG market. With changing lifestyle and increasing consumer demand, the Indian FMCG market is expected to cross $8,000 Cr by 2026 in towns with population of up to 10 lakh. With significant distribution scale, a portfolio of iconic brands and leading market share in many categories, we give India’s largest consumer products firm a narrow economic moat rating. Hindustan Unilever’s (HUL) products reach about 70 lakh outlets across India, the largest distribution network among peers. 19 of its brands generate annual turnover of over Rs. 500 Cr, or $ 8 Cr, each; while a good 95 % of products hold the two leading spots in their respective categories in terms of market share. To ensure that its dominance remains intact, the company is constantly investing in product innovation and supporting brands via the media. As the company innovates to bring new-to-India products to market and gains further scale benefits it is anticipate that HUL’s operating margins will expand over the coming decade, keeping returns above its cost of capital. HUL’s ability to innovate ahead of competition is truly remarkable. HUL has impressive ability to expand margins despite mounting competition in soap and detergents, which contributes 47 % to sales. This has been possible by launching new products such as fabric softeners, liquid detergents ahead of competitors. At the same time, its rural strategy of converting local villagers to salesmen has allowed them to access the interior regions of India, and sell them one rupee sachets of its products, keeping volumes buoyant. Personal products, contributes 28 % to sales & is a big opportunity for HUL to drastically improve its margins. The under-penetration characteristics of this category will allow HUL to leverage the breadth of its brands across price points, to lead adoption across affluent as well as poor households in India. Its recent launches of TRESemme and Tony & Guy brands, is a step in that direction to explore how far up the price band can be expanded in this luxury category.
Hindustan Unilever's (HUL) narrow economic moat stems from its portfolio of iconic brands--which allows the company to continue holding the top two spots in terms of market share across 95 % of its product categories, despite new entrants. In fact, eleven of the company's brands each drive over Rs. 1,000 Cr in annual sales, while another eight generate annual revenue in excess of Rs. 500 Cr each. Furthermore, HUL’s large retail distribution network which directly touches 32 lakhs outlets of India's estimated 85 lakhs retail outlets, and this is the largest coverage of universe in all of consumer India. Not only this, the secondary distribution of HUL’s products reaches over 80 % of all retail outlets in the country, making its products easily available across the country. HUL’s products play across the price points caters to the premium-mid-and-low end of the markets, and its premium brands are enjoying pricing power compared to its local brands of Marico in the body lotion category, and Godrej in soaps. Also when we give a snap shot look at HUL's 15 year financials, it turns out that it has been consistant in its returns. HUL's 15 years average of ROCE comes at 99.85 % & 15 year average of ROE comes at 89.67 %, its returns on invested capital (ROICs) which comes to an average 53 % over the next five years, well over its 10.9 % estimated cost of capital, supporting HUL's narrow economic moat. Here is HUL's 15 years financial snap shot -
first-of-its-kind deal with the music channel MTV- a part of Viacom 18 media group for five of its best-selling brands. The deal will help HUL to showcase its brands in six 60-minute movies, one aired every month on Viacom 18's youth and music platform. Each movie is directed by a Bollywood’s young directors like Anurag Basu for Sunsilk; Nikhil Advani for Ponds; Rohan Sippy for Tresemme; Abhinay Deo for Lakme; Anurag Kashyap & Shoojit Sircar for Close up. The agreement would include not just the movies themselves but interviews with directors, on-ground and on-air promotions of the films, airtime for ads etc. The Elements of these movies such as songs and trailers of the movies are likely to give a boost to HUL. The deal size is being pegged by industry insiders around Rs. 20-25 crore, all inclusive. With the launch of MTV Movies, HUL will redefine the way in which brands tell their stories to consumers. These will focus on communicating the brand purpose and build brand love.
On Financial side HUL’s Performance was quite satisfactory. During Q4FY15, HUL’s Revenues jumped 8.2 % YoY to Rs. 7,680 Cr. Domestic consumer business grew by 8.9 % led by 6 % volume growth and 3 % jump in price realization. The Operating profit increased 22.3 % YoY to Rs. 1,320 Cr. The operating margins grew 2.00 % YoY to 17.2 % led by 2.70 % drop in Raw Material costs and 0.50 % decrease in other expenses and 0.30 % decline in employee cost. However, this decrease was partially offset by 1.50 % increases in Advt & Promotional spends. Net profit increased by 23.4 % YoY to Rs. 1,020 Cr. Excluding exceptional gains of Rs. 180 Cr related to property sale, the Adj. PAT increased 3.0 % YoY to Rs. 900 Cr. Other segments reported satisfactory performance during the quarter – Beverages segment reported 12.3 % YoY growth in revenues to Rs. 980 Cr and 11.4 % YoY jump in EBIT to Rs. 180 Cr and Processed Food recorded 13.6 % YoY increase in revenues to Rs. 480 Cr and 10.6 % growth in EBIT to Rs. 25.4 Cr. HUL’s all three detergent brands – Surf, Rin and Wheel have crossed Rs. 2,000 Cr mark. Lifebuoy and FAL also crossed Rs. 2,000 Cr mark. Magnum Ice-cream extended to Delhi and Kolkata & now has presence in 7 cities. One of the HUL's newest products Pureit achieved its break even. The company is witnessing the momentum coming back in Close Up. The business environment for HUL continues to be challenging with slowing growth being witnessed on both the value front and volume fronts. The overall competitive intensity has stepped up in various categories while the up-trending has come to a pause. The discretionary category which was outpacing the other category over a longer term has come to a pause, but the company believes it to be a short-term phenomenon. HUL has a robust product pipeline, and has a strong and lucrative personal products portfolio, and expanding distribution network. Hgood play because it has a revenue growth from a medium to long term perspective, however due to increase in royalty, steep hike in tax rate and slowdown in discretionary segments remains an overhang on this stock. Depreciation in rupee impacts price of imported raw materials. The price war in HUL’s popular segments with new entrants entering the fray could hit the company hard. HUL pay’s rich dividends and one can hold this stock from a three five year perspective and focus on new product launches and market share gains in existing categories. Also there could be another buyback at around Rs. 700 per share. At current price of Rs. 863.75 the stock is trading at P/E of 41.92x FY16E on EPS of Rs. 20.60 and 34.96x FY17E on the EPS of Rs. 24.70. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.
|SALES (₹ Crs)||28,019.10||30,734.10||34,442.60||39,602.50|
|NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)||3,555.30||3,837.20||4,456.80||5,342.90|