NSE:

Sunday, April 13, 2014

THOMAS COOK INDIA LTD : WILL FLY HIGHER AND HIGHER !!!

Scrip Code: 500413 THOMASCOOK
CMP:  Rs. 100.00; Buy at current levels and at every Dips.

Short term Target: Rs. 110.00; Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 120; STOP LOSS – Rs. 92.00; Market Cap: Rs. 2,476.80 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 106.00 / Rs. 47.70

Total Shares: 24,76,80,897 shares; Promoters : 18,56,53,725 shares – 74.96 %; Total Public holding : 6,20,27,172 shares – 25.04 %; Book Value: Rs. 20.19; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 2.51; Dividend: 37.50 %; P/E: 39.84 times; Ind. P/E: 40.04; EV/EBITDA: 15.16.
Total Debt: 186.26; Enterprise Value: Rs. 2,456.54 Cr.

THOMAS COOK (INDIA) LIMITED: The Company was founded in 1881 and was incorporated in 1978, based in Mumbai, India. Thomas Cook (India) Limited is a former subsidiary of TCIM Limited, United Kingdom. Thomas Cook (India) Limited provides foreign exchange services, and travel and travel related services in India and internationally. The company came with an IPO in Dec 1982 offering 2,80,000 Shares of Rs. 10 each issued at par. The company’s foreign exchange services include retail purchase of foreign currencies and travellers’ cheques; bulk purchase-sale of foreign currencies from-to authorized dealers, money changers, and franchisees; release-remittance of foreign exchange; and encashment of mail-telegraphic transfers, demand drafts, and other forex instruments. The company’s foreign exchange services also consist of collection of foreign currency instruments drawn on banks; provision of Indian rupee-foreign currency advances against credit cards; and provision of travel related foreign exchange and payment solutions. It offers foreign exchange and payment solutions for leisure and business travellers, students going abroad for higher studies, people travelling for employment, medical treatment, emigration, etc. The company also offers travel related services comprising outbound, inbound, corporate, and domestic travel services; and meetings, incentives, conferences, and events. In addition, it provides travel insurance services, and visa and passport services. Further, the company operates its online portal thomascook.in that offers a range of travel and travel related solutions to its customers; and provides post graduate diploma in management in international business focusing on tourism. Thomas Cook’s Subsidiaries include: Travel Corporation (India) Ltd, TC Visa Services (India) Ltd, Thomas Cook Insurance Services (India) Ltd, Indian Horizon Travel & Tours Ltd, Thomas Cook Lanka (Private) Ltd, Thomas Cook Tours Ltd, Thomas Cook (Mauritius) Holding Company Ltd, Thomas Cook (Mauritius) Holidays Ltd, Thomas Cook (Mauritius) Travel Ltd, Thomas Cook (Mauritius) Operation Co Ltd. Currently, it has presence over 245 locations including 23 airport counters in 100 cities across India, Mauritius and Sri Lanka and is supported by strong partner network of 133 Gold Circle partners and 165 preferred sales agents in over 150 cities across India. On pan India level, the company has office located at Mumbai, Pune, New Delhi, Gurgaon, Chandigarh, Agra, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Baroda, Bhubhaneshwar, Chennai, Cochin, Goa, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Jalandhar, Kolkata, Trivandrum and Vishakapatnam. With over 133 years of presence in India TCIL is focused on providing a broad spectrum of travel-related services that include foreign exchange, corporate travel, leisure travel, and insurance. The company’s overseas subsidiaries offices are located at Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Germany, France, Spain, Canada, UK, USA, Australia, Japan, Korea and China. The company has employee strength of over 3000 people. Thomas Cook India Ltd is locally compared with Cox & Kings Ltd, International travel Ltd, Trade Wings Ltd, Sharyans Resources Ltd, Ace Tours Worldwide Ltd and Globally compared with Star Travel Corporation of Taiwan, Reliance Pacific Berhad of Malaysia, Eurasia Travel Company Ltd of Japan, Phoenix Tours International Inc of Taiwan, Zhanqjiajie Tourism Co of China, Xi’an Toursim Co. Ltd of China, Nikko Travel Co., Ltd of Japan, Karambunai Corporation Berhad of Malaysia, E-2 Capital Holding Ltd of Hong Kong, Travel Expert (Asia) Enterprises Ltd of Hong Kong, Sanbumi Holdings Berhad of Malaysian, South China Holdings Ltd of Hong Kong.

Investment Rationale:
Thomas Cook India Limited is the leading integrated travel & travel related financial services company in the country offering a broad spectrum of services that include foreign exchange, corporate travel MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Events), leisure travel, insurance, visa & passport services and E – business. It is one of the largest corporate travel agents having more than 700 clients. Thomas Cook India is being in operation for the last 133 years with robust business model. Since it went public 31 years ago, Thomas Cook has never suffered a loss, never skipped a dividend, but have only experienced a revenue decline in past 3 years. Thomas Cook India has a dominant position of share of more than 50 % in India's foreign currency bank notes exchange business which witness an volume of $1.8 billion from 2012. Both the forex and travel businesses have enduring competitve advantages and hug synergies which enables Thomas Cook India Ltd to deliver Free Cash Flow/Tangible Networth of more than 24 % a year. In, May 2012, Thomas Cook India Limited was acquired by Fairbridge Capital (Mauritius), a wholly owned subsidiary of Toronto based listed Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd which is a financial services holding company with a global presence in insurance and reinsurance and has a portfolio of assets in excess of $30 billion invested worldwide and a company, founded by Prem Watsa. Fairbridge Capital acquired 77.10 % stake amounting to Rs. 817.4 Cr stake in Thomas Cook India Ltd which then amounted to around Rs. 50 per share. Thereafter it increased the stake to 87.1 % through open offer at Rs. 65 per share. This subsequently reduced the stake to 75 % post QIP placement in May 2013 to comply with minimum public shareholding norm. Fairbridge paid 10 times to free cash flow of Thomas Cook after adjusting for its undervalue real estate assets. Fairbridge is responsible for execution of acquisition and investment opportunities in the Indian sub-continent on behalf of Fairfax family of companies. Fairfax has made its intention clear to use Thomas Cook India Ltd as Fairfax's investment vehicle in India for acquiring other great businesses. This acquisition by Fairfax is the third change in promoter ownership at Thomas Cook India Ltd in the past seven years. In 2005, Dubai Financial Services acquired 77 % stake in Thomas Cook India Ltd, which was later acquired by Thomas Cook UK (75 %) back from Dubai Financial Services in 2008 and then finally acquired by Fairfax in 2012. The management will be the same and the brand name “THOMAS COOK” would be retained for 12.5 years. Under the leadership of Fairbridge, on February 2014, Thomas Cook India took over Chennai based Sterling Holiday Resorts India Ltd and merged its operations with it. The merger with Sterling Holiday Resorts India Ltd in a deal valued at Rs. 870 Cr in part cash part equity. This merger has created India’s largest holiday company. The deal is structured in a multi-stage process in which 100 shares of Sterling was swapped for 120 shares of Thomas Cook (India). Thomas Cook, in a statement, said it will first make a preferential allotment for 23.24 % of Sterling Holiday at Rs. 90.49 a share amounting to about Rs. 187 Cr and will then purchase another 23.63 % of Sterling Holidays for Rs. 176 Cr from Sterling’s existing shareholders- Bay Capital which holds 13.67 %, ex-CEO of Alchemy Amit Goela owns 2.35 %, Ramanathan owns 2.86 %, Siddharth Shankar, Dhanalaxmi S holds 1.00 %, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 3.67 % & Radhakrishna Damani via Birght Star Investments Pvt Ltd holds 6.47 % at Rs. 98 a share. This will be followed by a third stage of mandatory open offer for buying up to 26 % stake for Rs. 230 Cr. The merger is expected to close by the fourth quarter of 2014, will give Thomas Cook access to Sterling Resorts' 19 properties in 16 holiday destinations across India. The total value of the merged entity will be equivalent to Rs. 3,000 Cr with 9,000 employees. The Sterling Holiday Resorts India Ltd has member base of 70,000 and the overall room nights for Sterling Holiday Resorts India Ltd have increased from 1,58,000 in 2010-11 to 2,01,000 in 2012-13 with an average occupancy of 43 % up from 19 % in the same period. For a travel services company to start providing hotels stay is an vertical integration and Thomas Cook would be benefited by channelizing the traffic of customers it helps to plan holidays. It should also be noted here that these two businesses are quite different, as one is asset light model and other is an asset heavy one, further, the aspect of utilisation of rooms will now become the prime concern. Thomas Cook is a free cash flow business. As the cash flow comes and people will invest it in and some more money from abroad will come to India.

Outlook and Valuation:

Thomas Cook India Ltd is one of India’s top three travel service providers and the country’s largest non-banking foreign exchange dealer, with an Authorized Dealer Category II license from the RBI. The forex and travel services businesses complement each other by creating marketing and distribution synergies as well as cross-selling opportunities and scale benefits. The company has a strong backing of the promoter group the FairFax group promoted by Prem Wastsas and he has experience of over 25 years & has demonstrated a strong financial track record to achieve an annual appreciation in Book Value per Share of 24.7 % annually. He is also known as Warren Buffet of Canada. Tours & Travels industry is a major contributor to the world’s major economy’s including India. In Asia Pacific region specifically, the direct contribution of Travel and Tourism to the region’s GDP in 2012 was USD 614 billion (2.7% of GDP) and is estimated to be at USD 646 billion in 2013. India and China are expected to emerge as two of the leading tourism markets in next 10 years. (Source: World Travel & Tourism Council). The industry is showing signs of recovery following the last economic recession, which saw falling demand for tourism activity as consumers postponed trips to concentrate their household budgets on more essential areas. As disposable incomes rise and a social trend towards travelling and exploring new destinations grows, the global tourism industry is attracting greater number of consumers eager to travel and experience life in other countries or just optimize time off work to unwind by taking holidays. Currently, only one million Indians annually travel outside India for holidays. This compares to some 40 million outbound tourists in China and hundreds of millions of outbound tourists in western world. Industry analysts believe that an increase in vacation ownership will also depend upon the prevailing economic climate. Membership growth has been sluggish and that is because of the current financial climate. A person will invest a few lakh rupees in time-share holidays and vacation ownership if he has surplus cash. Indian economy is witnessing auto sales falling and the property market not moving. These factors have an impact on the resort business. Sterling Holiday was passing through trying times with high debt till Bay Capital took it over in 2009. Since then, the company has been making a return of sorts by refurbishing its resorts. It has increased occupancy levels to 52 % from a lowest of 16 % a few years back. And with the two rounds of equity infusion helped the company repay debt and renovate existing properties. Thomas Cook owns 15 properties and 124 are leased/licensed. Thomas Cook is monetizing its valuable real estate assets, it owns a number of valuable real estate assets having a combined value of more than Rs. 200 Cr which includes: The Thomas Cook Building at Fort, Mumbai of about 50,000 sq. ft.; The Travel Corporation of India office at Nariman Point, Mumbai of about 15,000 sq. ft.; The Thomas Cook office in Chembur of 10,000 sq. ft.; The Gurgaon office at Udyog Vihar of 40,000 sq. ft.; and company owned 30 other branch offices. Built in early 1900s, it is a ground plus four storey structure in the heritage precinct of Fort area. TCIL might have to secure approval of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai for selling the building as it is a lessee of the civic body. TCIL is also looking to divest its 15,000-sq-ft property in Nariman Point and a 10,000-sq-ft property in Chembur, where it is looking at values of Rs. 25,000-30,000 and Rs. 15,000 per sq. ft. respectively, for outright sale. Realty consultant JLL (Jones Lang LaSalle) has been appointed to monetise the properties. TCIL is looking to shift its offices to one of the places such as Lower Parel, Dadar, Bandra Kurla Complex or Andheri and is likely to take a decision in the next few months. Though the timing of the monetisation of these real estate properties is uncertain, whenever it materializes, it could result in value unlocking for the shareholders. This could be in the form of higher dividend pay-outs. Thomas Cook’s average dividend pay-out over the last five years stands at 19.1 %, which is on a lower side. However, it is to be noted, that the growth of the company’s business is purely dependent upon the global & domestic economic growth. Even during times of a sharp slowdown in the global economy, Thomas Cook continued to pay dividends, despite its business getting impacted. Over the last five years from 2008 to 2013, the dividend paid as a % to FV has remained constant at 37.5 %. Going forward, it is expect that the company will continue to reward its shareholders with consistent dividend payments. There is a possibility of a sharp increase in dividend pay-outs (though it could be one time), if the sale of real estate assets materializes. Thomas Cook is a cash rich company with low debt equity, which provides margin of safety especially during high interest rate scenario. It is expected that its IKYA to contibute around 35 % to its revenues. Even if we value IKYA at cost at Rs. 256 Cr but its still worth more, management is implementing cost rationalisaton plans and taking the conservative value of Rs. 200 Cr of its surplus real estates, Thomas Cook is an attrative buy. At the current market price of Rs. 100.00, the stock is trading at a PE of 28.57 x FY14E. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 3.50 in FY14E, which is at a significant premium to its nearest competitor Cox & Kings. However, this is justified, considering huge debt burden in Cox & Kings books. Thomas Cook’s strong balance sheet position and its future growth prospects makes stock to continue to trade at a premium to its peers. One can buy THOMAS COOK INDIA LTD with a target price of Rs. 120.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 110.00. And I believe its 2 year long target could be Rs. 220.00. 

KEY FINANCIALSFY11FY12FY13FY14E
SALES ( Crs)381.30415.401,277.531,466.33
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)56.2450.4462.2287.40
EPS ()2.712.402.643.50
PE (x)23.7026.5022.7017.80
P/BV (x)3.403.102.302.10
EV/EBITDA (x)9.909.909.307.40
ROE (%)14.3311.5010.1011.60
ROCE (%)18.1017.3015.7017.90

I would buy THOMAS COOK INDIA LTD for Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 120 and for the shorter term the target would be Rs. 110.00. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of ₹ 92.00 on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

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Friday, April 4, 2014

SHARING THOUGHTS ON MY BIRTHDAY !!!

Hello Reader Friends !!
It's my Birthday today, grown a year older,

I've learned quite a few things about what to take or leave behind in past couple of years. I've accumulated quite a few truth's, stories, some you know and some that are still to be told on life and markets. I was thinking about everything that’s happened since my last birthday and I’m amazed that it was much an happening whole year of mine and am happy about it. I was wondering whether to publish this note on blog or not - but later decided that this blog was made with a purpose to present my views and now it has become the reflection of my mind and thoughts..........and so I felt to let my thoughts flow............. 

Life is good. Business is good. I love my job. I currently work for an wealth management firm in Mumbai and now, I’m a financial commentator and a writer too, I feel younger now than I did 10 years back. These days, I wake up excited about what I’m going to spend my day doing, which stock it would be and why, what's up with so and so company or a stock. I help people for a living and making them understand the complexity of markets, helping small world of mine consisting friends and well wishers to invest better and invest sensibly. It’s now, my only function or I should say has become my passion. Most of what I do is search, research and analyse and communicate my findings – in meetings, on phone calls, in emails, on the blog, on the web. Discussing about that scrip I like or about my views on macro & micro economics. I have realised that this is what I was meant to do. I love to spent long hours on balance sheets and financial reports and discussing it with my friends and colleagues, I love to know the business I am buying. It once happened that in 2007, one of my friend lost his fortune on a so called "Tips" from his broker, this made me think, on why can't one just be sensible in investing, why cant they know what they are buying and a thought to make people an investor and not an trader made me to started writing my blog...its been Seven years then, and I am trying my best to protect my fellow investor friends. Now all I have to do is to remind myself of it when the going gets rough.......

As of today, I am regret-free and thankful for both, the bad and the good experiences that taught me what I needed to know and I am still learning.... 
I take this opportunity to give Thank to all my reader friends for being there ...
                                                               God Bless You All !!!
Thanks to my parents who sculptured my thoughts and to making me who I am today !!!
And lastly, Thanks god for all of it !!!

Warm Regards,
Bhavikk Shah.


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