Dear Readers, BHAVIKK SHAH's BLOG is totally free website. Contents here should be viewed for Knowledge purpose only. Author does not charge for any kinds of the services. Kindly don't entertain to any of the paid services in a name of BHAVIKK SHAH's BLOG !!

Wednesday, February 3, 2016

INFOSYS LTD: GETTING IT's MOJO BACK !!!

Scrip Code: 500209 INFYNYSE:INFY  
CMP:  Rs. 1175.55; Market Cap: Rs. 2,70,017.32 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 1,219.80 / Rs. 932.65
Total Shares: 229,69,44,664 shares; Promoters : 30,04,31,272 shares – 13.08 %; Total Public holding : 199,65,13,392 shares – 86.92 %; Book Value: Rs. 220.89; Face Value: Rs. 5.00; EPS: Rs. 55.62; Dividend: 1190.00 %; P/E: 21.13 times; Ind. P/E: 20.84; EV/EBITDA: 13.25x; Total Debt: NIL; Enterprise Value: Rs. 239,650.32 Cr.

INFOSYS LIMITED: The Company was founded on July 2, 1981 and is headquartered in Bengaluru, India. It was first incorporated as Infosys Consultants Pvt ltd and changed its name to Infosys Technologies Ltd on June 2, 1992 and in June 16, 2011 the company changed its name to Infosys ltd. It is a global leader company in the "next Generation" of IT and consulting Services & is recognized for its world-class management practices and work ethics. Infosys Limited, formerly known as Infosys Technologies Limited is a global technology Services Company headquartered in Bangalore, India. It is the second largest IT exporter in India. Infosys Limited is engaged in consulting, technology, outsourcing and next-generation services. The Company's solutions include application development and maintenance, independent validation services, infrastructure management, engineering services comprising product engineering and life cycle solutions and business process management; Management Consulting, enterprise solutions and package implementation, systems integration and business intelligence; Products, business platforms and solutions, and technologies, such as cloud computing, enterprise mobility, digital, big data and analytics. Its segments are Financial Services and Insurance, Manufacturing, Energy and utilities, Communication and Services, Retail, Consumer packaged goods and Logistics, Life Sciences and Healthcare, and Growth Markets. The company came with an IPO in 1993 with 19,76,100 equity shares of Rs. 10 each priced at Rs. 95 per share and got listed at Rs. 145 per share. The company has very vast and fantastic bonus history, Infosys gave its first bonus on June 30 1994 in ratio of 1:1 and then on in 1997 in ratio of 1:1, 1999 in ratio of 1:1, in 2004 in ratio 3:1, in 2006 in ratio of 1:1, in 2014 in ratio 1:1, and lastly on April 24, 2015 in ratio of 1:1. Infosys has last split the face value of its shares from Rs. 10 to Rs. 5 in 1999. Infosys is the first Indian company to get a US Listing and emerged as one of the most precious companies listed on Nasdaq in terms of market capitalisation in software consulting and services category. It listed its ADR on March 11, 1999 on Nasdaq with the offer of 20,70,000 American Depository Shares which was equivalent to 10,35,000 equity shares of face value of Rs. 10 each at that time at US$34 per ADS. It raised US$7.038 Cr in 1999 through ADS. In December 2002 Infosys transferred the listing of its ADS from NASDAQ to the NYSE. Today, Infosys is a global leader in consulting, technology, and outsourcing solutions. As a proven partner focused on building tomorrow's enterprise, Infosys enables clients in more than 50 countries to outperform the competition and stay ahead of the innovation curve. With US$ 9.2 billion in annual revenues and 193,000+ employees, it provides enterprises with strategic insights on what lies ahead. It help enterprises transform and thrive in a changing world through strategic consulting, operational leadership, and the co-creation of breakthrough solutions, including those in mobility, sustainability, big data, and cloud computing. Finacle is a core banking product developed by Infosys, which is a universal banking solution with various modules for retail and corporate banking. INFOSYS Ltd is locally compared to HCL Technologies, Wipro Ltd, TCS, Hexaware technologies Ltd, and globally with Microsoft Corporation of USA, International Business Machines Corporations of USA, Oracle Corporation of USA, Cap Gemini of Europe, Cognizant Technologies Lt of India, Hewlett-Packard (HP) of USA, Accenture Plc of Ireland, Oracle Corporation of USA, SAP SE of Germany, Fujitsu Ltd of Japan.

Investment Rationale:
Incorporated in 1992, Infosys is the second largest IT company in India, employing over 1,93,000 professionals. The company services more than 1045 clients across various verticals, such as financial services, manufacturing, telecom, retail and healthcare. Infosys has the widest portfolio of service offerings amongst Indian IT Companies, spanning across the entire IT service value chain - from traditional Application Development and Maintenance to Consulting and Package Implementation to Products and Platforms. Infosys is the pioneer in the Global Delivery Model (GDM), which emerged as a disruptive force in the industry leading to the rise of offshore outsourcing. The GDM is based on the principle of taking work to the location where the best talent is available, where it makes the best economic sense, with the least amount of acceptable risk. The Company also offers span business & technology consulting, services, systems, product engineering, custom software development, maintenance, re-engineering, independent testing & validation services, IT infrastructure services & BPO. India is the world's largest sourcing destination for the Information Technology (IT) industry, accounting for approximately 67 % of the US$ 124-130 billion market. The industry employs about 1 Cr work-forces. More importantly, the industry has led the economic transformation of the country and altered the perception of India in the global economy. India enjoys cost competitiveness in providing IT services, which is approximately 3 to 4 times cheaper than the US, and this continues to be the mainstay of its Unique Selling Proposition (USP) in the global Sourcing market. India is also gaining prominence in terms of intellectual capital with several global IT firms setting up their innovation centres in India. The IT-BPM sector in India grew at a Compound Annual Growth rate (CAGR) of 15 % over 2010-15, which is 3-4 times higher than the global IT-BPM spend, and is estimated to expand at a CAGR of 9.5 % to US$ 300 billion by 2020. India is the fourth largest base for new businesses in the world and home to over 3,100 tech start-ups, and is all set to increase its base to 11,500 tech start-ups by 2020. India is the topmost offshoring destination for IT companies across the world. Having proven its capabilities in delivering both on-shore and off-shore services to global clients, emerging technologies now offer an entire new gamut of opportunities for top IT firms in India. Social, mobility, analytics and cloud (SMAC) are collectively expected to offer a US$ 1 trillion opportunity and Cloud represents the largest opportunity under SMAC, increasing at a CAGR of approximately 30 % to around US$ 650-700 billion by 2020. With thrust on automation to combat aggressive pricing in the “old”, and all-out approach to win in the “new”, INFOSYS is doing all it takes to return to growth leadership. It is on track to meet the same in calendar year 2016. Among the biggest changes INFOSYS underwent in its transformation endeavor is the appointment of an outsider as the first non-founder CEO – Dr. Vishal Sikka. The move for outsider as the new CEO was in essence, to gear INFOSYS up for the changing demand dynamics and to ensure that its offerings do not lose relevance in the new world. Nearly 18 months since the change at the top, the strategic direction announced by the company, and the progress thus far makes it evident that the company is doing all it takes to win in the Digital era. INFOSYS has clearly upped the ante on acquisitions, and while it has entered into three transactions on that front, it anticipates that inorganic foray will likely to add up and contribute around USD 1.5 billion to the top-line in next five years’ time. INFOSYS has launched Infosys Information Platform (IIP), which leverages the power of open source to address big data adoption challenges such as inadequate accessibility of easy-to-use development tools; fragmented approach to building data pipelines; and lack of an enterprise-ready version of open source big data analytics. Such new initiatives in the company are targeted to contribute around USD 2 billion in five years’ time. 
Under the new CEO, INFOSYS has forged alliances with the likes of Hitachi Data Systems, Huawei, Tableau software, and extended relationships with Microsoft and Amazon in order to facilitate adoption of new technologies across its clientele. INFOSYS has set aside USD 50 Cr for investments in startups, including USD 25 Cr for India-based start-ups, and the company is also looking at partaking in every new innovation that can possibly go on to improve the company’s prospects. Its investments in Whoop and CloudEndure a startup that provides Cloud Migration and Cloudbased Disaster Recovery (DR) software are a couple of examples of the same, its recent acquisition of Noah Consulting, LLC, which is a leading provider of advanced information management consulting services for the oil and gas industry. Infosys has also invested in WHOOP, an early stage company that offers a performance optimization system for elite professional sports teams. Infosys has also and is working for great projects across the globe such as the power engineering major ALSTOM selected Infosys for next-generation services in application engineering, development and maintenance, in addition to product lifecycle management to reduce IT costs, improve user experience, and increase the efficiency of the product design process. The MRJ90, the flagship aircraft of the Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation, Japan (MITAC) recently completed its maiden test flight and Infosys helped MITAC in the mechanical design of fuselage structures, delivered continuous improvements through automation, and reduced both the cost and cycle time. Mercedes Benz Research and Development Centre, India, has partnered with Infosys to run their complete data-centre and network operations support in 15 countries across the APAC region, increasing agility and automation and reducing cost of operations. DNB Bank of Norway selected Infosys to transform their application landscape. Applying AiKiDo, the company will leverage knowledge-based non-disruptive renewal to evolve DNB Bank’s entire Data cluster, data warehousing services, regulatory reporting, and ERP functions. Commerzbank also choose Infosys for a multi-year application management program to develop a post trade utility for the bank, leveraging principles of Design Thinking and the AiKiDo framework to simplify application architecture, standardize and improve processes, and drive cost efficiency. Since taking over as CEO of Infosys in August 2014, Dr. Vishal Sikka, who was earlier on the executive board of SAP AGs, first rolled out initiative named Design Thinking workshops at many of the company’s facilities across the country. According to the management, over 70,000 of its employees have undertaken a day-long class in Design Thinking, first popularized by IDEO, a California-based consulting firm. Later, Infosys rolled out Zero Distance initiative, because it wanted its engineers to apply the learnings of Design Thinking in each of the projects. Infosys Ltd believes Zero Distance, the newest initiative which is aimed to make its engineers think imaginatively, is an extension of the user-centric process of Design Thinking to help the firm have a tangible and valuable impact for its clients, as the company aims to become a $20 billion next-generation services software firm by the year 2020. The Infosys management believes that the Zero Distance is a very specific application of Design Thinking principles as it outlines for thousands of project managers a five-point roadmap to “jump-start innovation” within their project. Zero Distance initiative will help Infosys’s clients save more than $1 billion a year. This is the first time chief executive Dr. Sikka has put a number to measure the success of the approach introduced in March last year. Under the Zero Distance initiative - the software engineers have either come up with a more efficient way to complete a project or have gone beyond the scope of work to offer new solutions in over 90 % of the 8,500 master projects currently underway. Zero Distance along with the user-centric approach of Design Thinking would emerge as two of the most successful initiatives of Dr. Sikka. Design Thinking has helped the company more than double its share of large deal wins from less than $400 million in a quarter to $900 million in a quarter. Design Thinking is a framework, or a scaffolding, for creativity and innovation. It emphasizes empathetic ‘problem finding’ and iterative ‘problem solving’. It works well in an environment of ambiguity, but great opportunity such as all digital transformation initiatives. These initiatives are helping to bring about a cultural change in the way the 35-year-old firm has traditionally done business. These initiatives have even succeeded at major accounts where cost savings and more efficient approaches been recorded, and even business model innovations are being presented to clients that in the past would have been ignored. Looking the acquisition coupled with the large and variety of projects Infosys surely has the upper hand in the industry and has all the factors that can drive growth in the IT sector.

 Outlook and Valuation:   
Infosys was a pioneer in developing the global delivery model, which provided it with a formidable competitive advantage when offshore outsourcing gained momentum in the early 1990’s and later became an integral part of the IT services industry. The company proactively invested, and continues to invest a significant portion of its resources in developing and improving high-quality processes and methodologies. This not only helps Infosys to streamline its operations and deliver quality services to clients, but also makes it easier for the company to scale its operations when demand picks up, without compromising cost and quality. The company extended this commitment to pursue high-quality standards to other aspects of its business, including physical and technological infrastructure, human resource management, financial accounting, and corporate-governance practices. These actions helped Infosys differentiate itself from its peers. As with other offshore IT service providers, Infosys' foundation was built around its legacy application development and maintenance business. Though the business still accounts a significant portion of the company's revenue, its overall contribution has declined, as Infosys expanded its offerings and moved up the IT services value chain. The company's comprehensive portfolio includes products and services that span the IT services spectrum, starting from high-end consulting and moving on to package implementation and even low-end business process outsourcing. These new service offerings provide Infosys with new growth avenues and enable it to expand its penetration with existing clients. The company's ability to offer end-to-end service offerings, coupled with its fully developed global delivery model, puts it in an elite league of service provider’s like Accenture, IBM, and Cap Gemini that can offer a complete set of integrated services. Infosys boasts a large and have expansive base of more than 1045 active customers. The company has developed strong working relationships with top management at these companies, and most of its clients have been with Infosys for a long time. A large portion of new business is generated through existing relationships in the IT services industry, and Infosys' larger client base gives it a slight edge. Further, an established client base provides good visibility on revenue streams & repeat business, which accounts for more than 98 % of Infosys' revenue. Infosys’s strategy ‘renew and new’ have started shows its results. Its renewing delivery method of existing services and also building new services of the future resonated with the changing landscape of technology demand have started bearing fruits. Several senior personnel from SAP have been recruited to facilitate this. Successful execution of the strategy will help Infosys to regain its bellwether status with industry-leading growth at strong profitability. Infosys’s cost structures have stabilized, allowing it to balance investments and profitability without having significant volatility on the margins. There remains room to improve utilization, and INFO is trying to breach perceived theoretical maximum through its zero-bench initiative. Utilization, optimizing onsite employee cost as a percentage of the revenue and benefits from new initiatives like automation should all help cushion pressures from pricing in the legacy business. Infosys highlighted that it is retaining the benefits of automation and not fully passing it on to clients. It stated that automation will get commoditised in a few years and Infosys is going to have an early-mover advantage in this space, but there will be a higher pass-through to clients in later years. Automation has been highlighted as the largest productivity improvement lever in the medium-to-long term. The focus is now to shift the company from basic level of automation to more cognitive automation that can handle more complex tasks.
There are number of initiatives that were kick-started by Vishal Sikka. It highlighted that it has improved the number of engagements with its platforms including Infosys Information Platform - IIP with more than 200 engagements, Infosys Automation Platform – IAP with 121 engagements, Panaya, and Skava. All these innovations resulted in significant savings in efforts for the company which helped it to free 1,100 odd people in 3QFY16 on top of 800 done in 2QFY16. Infosys reported net employee addition of 5,400 during the quarter. The company stated that more than 69,000 of its employees have undergone training in Design Thinking, which is helping it to develop good innovative solutions and has changed the nature of conversation with clients. The Employee attrition rate declined from 19.9 % in the previous quarter to 18.1 % in 3QFY16. The quarterly annualised attrition rate declined from 14.1 % to 13.4 % sequentially. This is the lowest level of attrition which the company witnessed in the past 15 quarters. The rise in visa costs could potentially hit the company’s margins by 0.30 % to 0.35 % in FY17E based on the current assessment of Infosys. The management stated that revenue growth surpassed its own estimate on account of lower-than-expected furloughs and mitigation of certain client-specific problems. It also indicated no financial impact from Chennai floods. Following a good quarter, Infosys revised upwards its CC revenue growth guidance for FY16 from 10.0 % to 12.0 % earlier to 12.8 %to 13.2 %, while USD guidance was upped from 7.2 % to 9.2 % to 8.9 % to 9.3 %. The company maintained its margin guidance band of 24 % to 26 % for FY16. Infosys reported EBIT margin of 24.9% for 3QFY16 versus 25.5% in 2QFY16, leading to margin contraction by 60bps. Infosys indicated that it was well positioned to achieve industry-leading growth in FY17, a goal it had set for itself about two years ago. The management also highlighted that IT services budgets in CY16 will remain flat to marginally down. There will also be a downward revision in Energy vertical. Players with the right mix of offerings – Automation and Innovative Solutions - will continue to grow, despite flat budgets. The company also maintained its 2020 target of a 30 % margin on the back of increased adoption of automation capabilities. After Vishal Sikka came in as CEO, Infosys became more focused on customers with introduction of new initiative, making senior consultants responsible for selling the entire stack of services to their allocated clients, re-engineering Request For Proposal or RFP response process, etc and on delivery that is bringing in more automation to services like IMS and BPO – fast growing service lines for the industry where Infosys lost market share over the years, getting grassroots innovation going through suggestions from project-level employees, etc. Thus, it is very likely that Infosys will gain market share and grow above industry. The industry itself is unlikely to grow at more than a high single-digit rate over FY16E-FY18E. The Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15 % and 12 % over 2014 to 2017E respectively. At the current market price of Rs. 1175.55, the stock is trading at PE of 20.06 x FY16E and 17.97x the FY17E. Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for FY16E could be seen at Rs. 58.59 and Rs. 65.39 for FY17E. It is expected that shares of INFOSYS to hit all time high soon and the company will keep its growth story intact in the coming quarters also and can be a good pick from this IT sector. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also. 

KEY FINANCIALSFY15FY16EFY17EFY18E
SALES ( Crs)53,319.0061,948.9070,612.1080,113.80
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)12,329.0013,305.4015,582.5017,637.00
EPS ()53.9058.2068.1077.10
PE (x)21.0019.5016.6014.70
P/BV (x)4.704.203.803.40
EV/EBITDA (x)15.4013.3011.309.70
ROE (%)24.1022.9024.0024.10
ROCE (%)24.0022.9024.0024.10

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) -  Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold INFOSYS Ltd in my any of the portfolios.


*Reader Friends, grab a fresh hot cup of coffee, turn on your net & browse on to www.bhavikkshah.blogspot.in & take out few minutes to get to know the most interesting world of investment... Till then HAPPY INVESTING, don't forget to Share !!

*Dear Reader friend, if you enjoyed this article, please do share it with your Friends and Colleagues through Facebook and Twitter, and drop in your valuable thoughts in comment box..

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

DON'T BUY BCOZ SOMEONE IS BUYING !!

Hii Friends,
Once again I am back with very funny but meaningful story I recently heard at my work place. It's always fortunate to be surrounded with so much of wisdom. This story was narrated by one of our elderly client who read this story in his early days and narrated this story to us on hearing someone saying that so and so stock is being bought by some influential big investor, so we should buy that..... contradicting to that he narrated this story, thus giving us the unforgettable lesson on how we should learn to apply our own mind and not to be fettered by the saying of others, develop your own thought process -  




It was Autumn!
And the Red Indians asked their newly elected chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since the new Red Indian chief was from the modern school of thoughts, he was never been taught the old secrets and so he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be. Nevertheless, to be on the safer side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared. But also being a practical leader, he went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked ''Is the coming winter going to be cold? ''

'It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed,' the meteorologist at weather service responded. So the Chief went back to his people and told his tribe mens to collect even more wood. 

A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. 'Is it going to be a very cold winter?'

'Yes,' the man at National Weather Service again replied, 'It's definitely going to be a very cold winter.' The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again. 'Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?'

'Absolutely,' The man replied. 'It's going to be one of the coldest winters ever.
'How can you be so sure?' the Chief asked. The weatherman replied, 'The Red Indians are collecting woods like crazy.'

This is how stock markets works. Those who trust on rumours or stock call tips and see evidence of their correctness in the stock prices moving up or down may be caught in the same game. Many a times while the choice of stocks may be right, but the timing of purchase goes wrong. Thus, investors end up buying stocks after the prices have moved up sharply and they get tired or depressed as the stock refuses to climb in the short term or declines. And they end up exiting the counter just as the valuation starts moving up again. And left regeretted, so friends just don't buy because someone is buying - Hear them out why they bought that particular stock - understand their rational behind it - Apply your mind - can u understand the business - Do your set of homework - ask questions if u dont understand any aspects - then go for it - DON'T JUST INTIMATE PEOPLE, Develope your own thought process !!! -  READ SUCH STORIES HERE

                                                      !! HAPPY INVESTING !!

Reader Friends, grab a fresh hot cup of coffee, turn on your net & browse on to www.bhavikkshah.blogspot.in & take out few minutes to get to know the most interesting world of investment... Till then HAPPY INVESTING, don't forget to Share !!

*Dear Reader friend, if you enjoyed this article, please do share it with your Friends and Colleagues through Facebook and Twitter, and drop in your valuable thoughts in comment box..

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE


VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON

Saturday, January 23, 2016

S H KELKER & COMPANY LTD: ADD FRAGRANCE TO YOUR PORTFOLIO !!!

Scrip Code: 539450 SHK
CMP:  Rs. 246.60; Market Cap: Rs. 3,566.34 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 275.80 / Rs. 180.00
Total Shares: 14,46,20,801 shares; Promoters : 8,20,14,414 shares – 56.71 %; Total Public holding : 6,26,06,387 shares – 43.29 %; Book Value: Rs. 37.88; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 4.87; Dividend: 11.30 %; P/E: 50.63 times; Ind. P/E: 47.70; EV/EBITDA: 26.17x ; Total Debt: Rs. 242.64 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 3,732.98 Cr.

S H KELKAR AND COMPANY LIMITED: The Company was founded on July 1, 1955 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India. S H Kelkar & Company Ltd (Keva) is one of the largest fragrance and flavour companies in India. The journey of the company begins in 1922 as a manufacturer of industrial perfumes in British India regime. Company has a large and diverse mix of over 3,500 customers, including leading national and multi-national FMCG companies, blenders of fragrances and flavours and fragrance and flavour producers. The flavour products produced by the company are used as a raw material by producers of baked goods, dairy products, beverages and pharmaceutical products. S H Kelkar has dedicated research team of 21 scientists operating out of their facilities located in Mumbai and Barneveld. It also has a team of 12 perfumers, 2 flavorists, evaluators and application executives at their 5 creation and development centers in Mumbai, Bengaluru, Netherlands and Indonesia. The company provides Fragrances for Personal care, Hair Care, Skincare & Cosmetics, Fabric Care, Household Products, Fine Fragrances. It provides Flavours for Dairy Products, Beverages, Confectionery, Bakery Products, Pharmaceuticals. Provides services like Bio Technology Research services, cosmetic Research service, Cosmetic Testing Laboratory, Custom Synthesis Services. It also provides Ingredients. The company has expertise in manufacturing plant, quality control and R&D centre. The company sells its products under brands like SHK, Keva and Cobra brands which enjoys substantial brand equity in India. Company's research team has developed 12 molecules over the last three years of which company has filed patent applications for three. The Company has four manufacturing facilities, three of which are located in India and one in Netherlands, with a total installed manufacturing capacity of over 19,819 tons annually. Last year company manufactured and supplied over 6,300 fragrances, including fragrance ingredients and flavours for the personal and home care products, food and beverage industries, either in the form of compounds or individual ingredients. The company came out with an IPO on Oct 28, 2015 offering 1,65,65,161 equity shares of Rs. 10 each for Rs. 180 per share raising Rs. 298 Cr. The shares of the company got listed on November 16, 2015 at Rs. 223.70 making a high of Rs. 225.05 on listing day. The object of offer for sale was to achieve the benefits of listing and for repayment and pre-payment in full or in part of certain loans availed by the company and Investment in its subsidiary K.V. Arochem Pvt Ltd and for repayment and pre-payment in full or part of certain loans availed by KVA and for general corporate puroses. Company's subsidiaries includes: Keva Fragrances Pvt Ltd, Keva Flavours Pvt Ltd, Saiba Industries Pvt ltd, Keva Chemicals Pvt Ltd, Keva UK Ltd, Keva Fragrance Industries Pte. Ltd, PT SHKKeva Indonesia, PFW Aroma Ingredients B.V. S H KELKAR Ltd is locally compared to Panama Petrochem Ltd, Manali Petrochemicals Ltd, Vinati Organics Ltd, Adi Finechem ltd, Camphor and Allied Products Ltd, Resonance Specialties Ltd, Camlin Fine Sciences Ltd, Diamines And Chemicals Ltd, and globally with Elizabeth Arden of USA, Atlas Pearls and perfumes Ltd of Australia, ID Perfumes Inc of Athens, Chanel from France, L’Oreal & LVMH ,Givaudan, IFF, Firmenich, Symrise, Goldfield.  

Investment Rationale:
Incorporated in 1955, the company has over the years built strong relationships with its FMCG clients and they now understand the requirement of the end customer. SHK has 3,700 customers in the FMCG industry, which includes biggies like Godrej Consumer Products, Marico, Wipro Consumer Care, Hindustan Unilever and around 400 customers for their flavors products. SHK is the largest domestic fragrance producer commanding 20.5 % market share in the Indian fragrance industry with over 9,700 fragrances, fragrance ingredients and flavors created, manufactured and supplied as on FY15. It has a long standing reputation developed over the year’s history as a supplier of quality fragrances for use by FMCG companies in personal and home care products, food and beverage industries with exports to over 52 countries. It is also an emerging flavor producer in India with exports of its flavor products reaching 15 countries. SHK has a large and diverse mix of over 4,100 customers which include leading national and MNC FMCG companies, blenders as well as producers of fragrances and flavors. The fragrance and flavour business is a consolidated industry globally with 12 players controlling 83 % of the market and the top four players accounting for 53 % of the market share. The sector has been growing at around 4.2 % over the last five years and has a global market size of around $26.3 billion. Since the demand for fragrance and flavours is influenced by factors like urbanisation, rise of modern retail and high consumption of FMCG products, the biggest growth is expected to happen in emerging markets. India’s FMCG sector itself may touch $37 billion by 2020, which is a growth rate of 14 % (2012-20), annually. It is this growth rate and the size of the FMCG business that SHKCL plans to cash in on. In general, the Indian market has grown at twice the rate of the global market in the last five years and this growth is expected to continue for a long time. The top five companies in the Indian fragrance industry account for 70 % of the entire market, despite the presence of 1,000 odd players. Overall, SHKCL has a market share of 35 % in the Indian market. The company has 3,700 customers but it never allows one customer to account for more than 4 % of the total turnover, to maintain diversification. The management feels that this is like a mutual fund approach to risk management where they do not have to depend on one particular customer for solid returns. The global fragrance and flavour industry is estimated to be worth US$ 23.90 billion with an almost equal split between the fragrance and flavour markets. The global fragrance and flavour industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.7 % by 2017 to reach an estimated value of US$ 27.5 billion. There are top 12 companies in this market and can be further broken down into the top four companies, consisting of Givaudan SA, Firmenich, International Flavors and Fragrances, Inc. and Symrise AG, that individually hold a market share of above 10.0 %, and collectively hold 57.0 % of the overall global fragrance and flavour industry among them. The remaining eight companies individually have a market share of between 1.0 % to 10.0 %, and collectively hold 26.0 % of the global Fragrance and flavour industry. Regional companies make up the balance of companies in the global fragrance and Flavour industry. The global flavour market accounts for approximately 49.0 % of the total global fragrance and flavour industry in terms of value at US$ 11.7 billion. Over the last six years, from calendar year 2007 to Calendar year 2013, the global flavour market has increased its share of revenues from 44.0 % to 49.0 %. The main product categories in the global flavour market for the calendar year 2013 were beverages contributing 34 %, savory 16 % and convenience foods and dairy accounting for 34 % of the global flavour market. Many top fragrance and flavour companies are placing greater focus on the emerging markets of Asia Pacific like India due to urbanization and changing lifestyles that are expected to benefit FMCG companies and their Fragrance and flavour suppliers. In particular, higher consumer credit coupled with rising incomes will lead to a sustained period of above average consumer spending, including the consumption of FMCG products. Fragrance and flavour companies with exposure to emerging markets also have a significant competitive advantage with respect to their customer base. SHK has always pushed its boundaries with new unique offerings to help enhance user experience of FMCG products containing these fragrances. In FY15 itself, SHK developed over 502 new fragrance and flavour compounds which have been sold commercially. Its research team developed 12 molecules over the last 3 years, out of which it has filed patent applications for 3. It combines its innovation efforts with a strong quality control system which enables traceability and repeatability for each batch of its products. This has led to a contribution of 14.3 % of revenues in FY15 from product launches of the last 3 financial years. SHK has built a Very strong reputation through delivery of quality products and customer satisfaction in the 90 years of its existence. With a solid business model, an 8,000 wide fragrance product range and strong sales & marketing Capabilities as demonstrated by its robust sales team of 95 people from 9 centres in India and overseas, SHK would be able to sustain its market share in this Rs. 20 billion Indian fragrance industry which in itself has witnessed a CAGR of 10.1 % over the last 4 years. The fragrance industry is primarily a niche market. Customers majorly include FMCG players who mainly use these fragrances in the manufacture of demand inelastic daily utilities like home and personal care products. With demand inelasticity is expected to drive demand in the Indian fragrance industry, S H Kelkar and company Ltd is expected to do better.

 Outlook and Valuation: 
 S H Kelkar & Company Ltd famously known as Keva is one of the largest fragrance and flavour companies in India. Company has a large and diverse mix of over 3,500 customers, including leading national and multi-national FMCG companies, blenders of fragrances and flavours and fragrance and flavour producers. The flavour products produced by the company are used as a raw material by producers of baked goods, dairy products, beverages and pharmaceutical products. Company has over 300 customers for its flavour products. S H Kelkar has a small 2 % share in the Indian flavor industry which is dominated by global leaders. With the capacity of 19,819 tons available with SHK will help company to take advantage of an industry which is growing at a stable CAGR of 10.4 % over the last 4 years. SHK has established brand equity with its fragrance and flavor products and a growing clientele of over 400, SHK is all set to increase its market share in an expanding industry thereby further augmenting its growth. Fragrance manufacturers are highly involved from an early stage of product development and there is a requirement for consistency in its smell and quality. Most FMCG companies depend on the reliability & quality of service of fragrance producers and their knowledge & understanding of their products and needs. In addition to this, fragrance procurement has a relatively small share in overall production costs for FMCG goods. Thus, there is an element of customer stickiness on account of these factors which helps fragrance producers in long term client retention. SHK enjoys a competitive edge, and has its own Economic Moat (A competitive advantage is, that one company has over the other companies in the same industry – by Warren Buffett) and is expanding its moats which is a very strong sign of SHK commanding better market share in future also. The global fragrance and flavour industry is characterized worldwide by high barriers to market entry. Some of these barriers to entry’s are like an establishing long term relationships between fragrance and flavour companies and their customers, especially FMCG manufacturers, which are an entry barrier for new players to the global fragrance and Flavour industry. Most FMCG companies greatly depend on the reliability, quality of service and fragrance and flavour company’s knowledge and understanding of their products and needs. Fragrance and flavour companies typically have to enter at an early stage of product development and such timely opportunities may not always be available to new entrants. Most FMCG manufacturers usually avoid replacing their fragrance and flavour supplier as the overall cost of fragrance or flavour products in the context of the final FMCG product is relatively small. This sector faces compliance with strict quality and regulatory standards, particularly in relation to FMCG products, such makes it difficult and costly for new entrants to enter the global fragrance and flavour industry. The global fragrance and flavour industry is characterized by an abundance of new and innovative products due to the dynamic nature of consumer preferences. Large fragrance and flavour companies spend approximately 6.5 % to 10.0 % of their sales proceeds on research and development, while global FMCG companies spend less than 4.0 % of their sales proceeds on research and development. In order to stay competitive, fragrance and flavour companies have to invest significantly on research and development to continue offering a wide range of innovative products. However, smaller fragrance and flavour companies or new entrants may not be in a position to spend such significant amounts on research and development. SHK plans to deepen its distribution network and plans to introduce new products and new application methods for its Fragrance such as small packs business. SHK also has a small pack fragrance business which it operates through its Cobra brand. This business includes sales of its fragrance products in package sizes ranging from 25 gm to 25 kg to several hundred traders and resellers spread country-wide. Thus the Cobra brand will grow and support SHK’s top-line growth. SHK also advantages from its low customer concentration. Out of the net revenue from operations of Rs. 840 Cr and Rs. 220 Cr in FY15 and Q1FY16E, revenue from SHKs largest customer was just Rs. 24 Cr and Rs. 8.80 Cr respectively. This amounts to only just 2.9 % and 3.9 % of revenues from SHKs biggest customer in FY15 and Q1FY16E. Thus, with a low concentration risk, SHK has managed to effectively mitigate the adverse effect of client loss on its top-line and bottom-line. Revenues from exports form a significant part of SHKs top-line. With negligible debt and consequent low interest burden, SHK would enjoy the benefits of reduced financial risks and low leverage. This would help the company sustain its high growth phase where its bottom-line has grown at a CAGR of 15.4% from FY11 to FY15. Revenues of SHK have grown at a healthy CAGR of 13.0 % from Rs. 470 Cr in FY11 to Rs. 860 Cr in FY15 driven by consistent demand for its fragrances from FMCG companies in India and overseas where it has a significant exposure in A & MENA. The fortunes of SHK depend of the level of FMCG consumption in India and overseas. With average household incomes of SHKs target market expected to significantly expand with an increasing share of disposable income, a favorable population composition and expansion of modern retail formats, consumption of FMCG products is all set to follow a healthy growth trajectory. Also, in order to keep up with changing preferences of the ultimate consumer, SHK consistently invests in research and development. It spent Rs. 26.4 Cr and Rs. 6.2 Cr in FY15 and Q1FY16E which comes to 3.1 % and 2.8 % of revenues respectively. With capacity available in its flavour manufacturing facility, established brand equity and a growing clientele, SHK can increase its market share in the flavour industry which has grown at a CAGR of 10.4 % over the last 4 years. SHK has raise money through IPO and will use part of its proceeds to repay some of its debts. SHK has already completed its capex cycle for the next 3-5 years with its Indian plants working at 35 % to 45 % capacity. Thus the repayment of significant debt post issue combined with an absence of material capex plans would ensure that financial risk is contained over the medium term. With a growing FMCG sector in Asia, North Africa and Middle East which constitutes 83.7 % of SHKs revenues, favourable demographics in place & customer diversity both in terms of low client concentration and 43.5 % of revenues coming from exports, SHK is surely to be an effective FMCG proxy. At the current market price of Rs. 246.60, the stock is trading at a PE of 44.83 x FY16E and 34.25 x FY17E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 5.50 in FY16E and Rs. 7.20 in FY17E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.

KEY FINANCIALSFY14FY15FY16EFY17E
SALES ( Crs)761.40837.00937.501,064.00
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)79.1064.4079.60104.50
EPS ()5.504.505.507.20
PE (x)36.7045.2036.5027.80
P/BV (x)6.005.703.703.40
EV/EBITDA (x)22.3025.5019.9017.60
ROE (%)16.4012.6010.1012.20
ROCE (%)22.9020.6016.3017.40

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) -  Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold S H KELKAR & COMPANY Ltd in my any of the portfolios.


*Reader Friends, grab a fresh hot cup of coffee, turn on your net & browse on to www.bhavikkshah.blogspot.in & take out few minutes to get to know the most interesting world of investment... Till then HAPPY INVESTING, don't forget to Share !!

*Dear Reader friend, if you enjoyed this article, please do share it with your Friends and Colleagues through Facebook and Twitter, and drop in your valuable thoughts in comment box..

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

PrinterFriendly

Share

Why you should have a Stop Loss of 8 % ? Click to know more. Author is also on Facebook and Click here for Short Stories

X