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Sunday, December 23, 2012

ASHOK LEYLAND : RUNNING ON STRONG WHEELS !!!

Scrip Code: 500477 ASHOKLEY
CMP:  Rs. 27.10; Buy at Rs.26.50 - 27.00 levels.
Short term Target: Rs. 30.00; 6 month Target – Rs. 55; 
STOP LOSS – Rs. 24.95; Market Cap: Rs. 7,210.43 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 33.50 / Rs. 18.75
Total Shares: 266,06,76,634 shares; Promoters : 102,72,37,424 shares –38.61 %; Total Public holding : 163,34,39,210 shares – 61.39 %; Book Value: Rs. 10.89; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 2.01; Div: 100 % ; P/E: 13.46 times; Ind. P/E: 40.50; EV/EBITDA: 8.22.
Total Debt: 2,395.53 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 9,605.96 Cr.

ASHOK LEYLAND LTD: The Company was founded in 1948 and is based in Chennai, India. Ashok Leyland limited is a subsidiary of Hinduja Automotive Ltd. It was named after the founder Raghunandan Saran’s son Ashok, the company was renamed ‘ASHOK LEYLAND’ with equity participation from Leyland Motors Ltd in 1955. Ashok Leyland ltd engages in the manufacture and sale of commercial vehicles and related components in India and internationally. India’s first inland made double decker was launched by Ashok Leyland in 1967. The Company's products include Buses – double decker and vestibule buses, CNG buses, Trucks – including multi axle trucks & tractor trailers, diesel engines, defense and special vehicles for Indian army. From 18 seater to 82 seater double-decker buses, from 7.5 ton to 49 ton in haulage vehicles, from numerous special application vehicles to diesel engines for industrial, marine and genset applications, Ashok Leyland offers a range of products. In the year 2006 Ashok Leyland acquired AVIA the Czech Republic based truck manufacturer. In 2007 the company formed a JV with Nissan Motor Company, Japan for the manufacture and marketing of light commercial vehicles, same year Ashok Leyland signed another JV with Continental AG, Germany – for the development of automotive Infotronics. In 2010, the Company acquired 26% stake in Optare plc. a bus manufacturer in the United Kingdom. Ashok Leyland Ltd is compared to: Bajaj Auto Limited, Motherson Sumi Systems Limited in India and Xiamen King Long Motor Company Limited globally.

Investment Rationale:
Ashok Leyland management expects M&HCV industry volumes to revive in H2 mostly back ended but still decline 5 – 10 % in FY13. Ashok Lay land with the launch of new products believes to achieve market share of 26 % in FY13. While Ashok Lay land was able to maintain its leadership in South, it was able to increase its market share in West to 25% from 22% earlier, East to 14% from 10% earlier and Central to 24% from 20% earlier. The company’s Export environment remains challenging as both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh which accounted for 70% of export volumes have seen demand contraction and targets 10,000 unit exports in FY13. Ashok Lay land’s new launch LCV Dost has very well received good response and the current order book stands at 2 months and management expects volumes of around 36,000 to 50,000 units in FY13/FY14 & expects that 70% of volumes sales to be from outside Tamil Nadu in H1FY13. Other segments have seen strong growth in Q2/H1 – like spare part sales were up to 27% in H1, Engines were up at 25% in H1 and defense continues to see steady growth as well. Company targets to have spare part revenues of Rs 1,000 Cr in FY13. Ashok lay Land has increased its customer touch points to 425 by Sep end with relatively more additions in North and West regions. Company’s input costs have remained largely flattish in H1 and is expected to have a marginal reduction in selected pockets like steel and tyres due to Subdued demand environment pushing up discounts to Rs 80,000 per vehicle in Q2 against 50,000 – 60,000 earlier. This has effectively neutralized all price hikes taken from the beginning of the year. The production from Pantnagar plant stood at 7,607 units in Q2 and should comfortably reach 40,000 units in FY13. This should benefit margins as the plant enjoys excise savings of Rs 60,000 per vehicle – the company plans to further increase this benefit to Rs. 65,000 led by higher localisation and increased sourcing. Due to High warranty charges (AMC) margins in H1 were impacted, company has suspended all its AMC contracts currently and this is under review. The company’s working capital has decreased by Rs. 700 Cr to Rs. 1700 Cr QoQ and maintains its target of lowering this to Rs. 1,000 Cr by FY13 end. Ashok Layland has incurred a capex of Rs. 350 Cr in H1 and targets capex of Rs. 650 Cr in FY13. Most of this is to be utilized for optimization of facilities, engines and on Pantnagar plant for next-gen cab. It also plans to spend another Rs. 150 Cr on product development expense. The company has new products in pipeline which is very healthy and which includes 10X2 5 axle 37 ton truck, entire MAV series with Neptune engine, 5 new models in ICV and the Jan-bus. Ashok Lay land targets to increase its investments to Rs. 7oo Cr primarily due to a Rs. 350 Cr investment in Hinduja Foundries. John Deere is expected to come out with a backhoe loader variant and a new wheel loader. Company’s debt levels are expected to increase by Rs. 700 Cr by FY13 to take care of the capex and investment plans. Management also plans to restructure investment companies and come out with the consolidated financials for FY13

Outlook and Valuation:
Ashok Leyland reported growth of 5.8 % YoY in its top-line at Rs. 329 Cr. Volume for the quarter grew by 26.1% YoY which is 10.5% decline excl. LCV sales, whereas average realisation de-grew by 16.1% YoY, mainly hinting towards higher discounting on account of slowdown in demand and higher contribution of LCV ‘Dost’. Spare parts sale grew by 27% YoY to Rs. 260 Cr coupled with richer product mix in the export market restricted the decline in average realisation / vehicle. Other expenses increased by 29.7% YoY on account of increase in the marketing and brand building expenses as well as higher power expenses. However, on a QoQ basis, other expenses declined by 70bps on account of Rs. 12 Cr saving in power cost and Rs. 15 Cr in reduction in ad spends. At the same time, due to one-time incentives and benefits to employees in Q1FY13, Q2FY13 employee expenses declined by 90 bps QoQ. As a result, EBITDA margins improved by 160 bps QoQ to 9.8%. EBITDA declined by 2.7% YoY to Rs. 320 Cr higher than our estimate of Rs. 270 Cr. On account of higher working capital requirement, interest cost grew by 57.4 % YoY to Rs. 100 Cr, thereby, leading to a 19.2 % YoY de-growth in PBT. On account of lower tax rate at 8.5 % due to higher production at Pantnagar and R&D spend, PAT (adj. for forex) decline was restricted to 15.3% YoY at Rs.130 Cr. Ashok Leyland an ideal buy at current price as well as at declines with a stop loss placing at Rs. 24.95 for a target of Rs. 30.00. The stock trades at 11.88x/9.54x P/E on FY12/13 estimates with the target price of Rs. 30/ share. Uncertainty with respect to demand for Ashok Leyland (due to regional disparity) continues to be a concern on the volume front. However, price hikes and lower Raw Material cost can provide cushion against the drop in earnings due to lower volumes.

KEY FINANCIALSFY12FY13EFY14EFY15E
SALES (Rs. Crs)12,842.0013,476.7014,836.4017,156.20
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs) 566.00530.50606.90754.40
EPS (Rs.)2.121.992.282.84
PE (x)12.1012.9011.309.10
P/BV (x)1.601.501.401.40
EV/EBITDA (x)7.807.907.106.30
ROE (%)13.9012.2013.0015.30
ROCE (%)8.208.008.409.30

I would buy ASHOK LEYLAND with a price target of Rs. 30.00 for the 6 month target. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 24.95 on your every purchase.



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