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Wednesday, April 3, 2013

LARSEN & TOUBRO : IT's NOT ONLY ENGINEERING, ITS ALSO INVESTEERING!!!

Scrip Code: 500510 LT
CMP:  Rs. 1425.40; Accumulate at Rs. 1370 - Rs. 1400 levels.
Short term Target: Rs. 1500, Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 1765; 
STOP LOSS – Rs. 1311.36; Market Cap: Rs. 87,682.40 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 1720.00 / Rs. 1106.05
Total Shares: 61,51,42,429 shares; Promoters : 26,50,96,686 shares –42.85 %; Total Public holding : 35,00,45,743 shares – 56.90 %; Book Value: Rs. 409.54; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 81.95; Div: 825.00 % ; P/E: 17.39 times; Ind. P/E: 13.80; EV/EBITDA: 11.42.
Total Debt: 9,895.77 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 94,158.17 Cr.

LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD: LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD was founded in 1938. Larsen & Toubro Limited operates as a technology, engineering, construction, and manufacturing company worldwide. Larsen’s divisions include Engineering and Construction Projects (E&C), Heavy Engineering (HED), Engineering Construction and Contracts (ECC), Electrical and Electronics (EBG), Machinery and Industrial Products (MIPD), and Information Technology & Engineering Services. These divisions undertake engineering design and construction of infrastructure and industrial projects, including civil, mechanical, and electrical & instrumentation engineering. The customer profile includes Samsung, Chevron, Bechtel, Kvaerner, Pirelli, Siam Michelin, and Goodyear. The Heavy Engineering (HED) division manufactures and supplies custom designed and engineered critical equipment and systems to the needs of core-sector industries and the defense sector. It is the preferred supplier of equipment for a select range of products, globally. The Division has entered into Shipbuilding business and engages in construction of specialty commercial vessels and warships for the navy, as well as the coast guard.  The Engineering Construction and Contracts (ECC) division delivers engineering, procurement, and contract solutions in the oil and gas, petrochemicals, power, and water space industries. The Electrical and Electronics (EBG) division offers solutions in low & medium voltage categories. Its businesses consists of switch-gear, switchboards for different applications, including marine, meters, automation systems, petroleum dispensing pumps, medical equipment and tooling solutions and has operations at different locations in India (two in Mumbai and one each in Ahmednagar, Mysore, Faridabad and Coimbatore) and one unit for manufacturing operations in China. The Information Technology and Engineering Services Information and Technology Services division offers e-Engineering solutions, including product design and engineering analysis, engineering process support, production and plant engineering, asset information management, and design automation to high end technology verticals, such as automotive, aerospace, marine and ship design, plant engineering, and industrial products. This division also provides embedded systems and solutions comprising supply of hardware, application software, and enclosure design for electronics product design and development in automotive, medical, semiconductor, and industrial products. On November 30, 2009, Nuclear Power Corporation Of India Limited and Larsen & Toubro Ltd. announced the formation of a JV company to produce special steels and ultra heavy forgings. On January 22, 2010, Larsen & Toubro Ltd. formed a JV with Sapuracrest Petroleum Bhd to undertake installation of pipelines and construction of offshore rigs and platforms in India, West Asia and South East Asia. In July 2012, L&T’s subsidiary Tamco Switchgear acquired Henikwon Corporation Sdn Bhd. L&T does business in Malaysia, the United States, the Unite Kingdom, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. L&T LTD is compared globally with Hyundai Development Company Ltd of South Korea, Daelim Industrial Company Ltd of South Korea, Nippo Corporation of Japan Ssangyong Engineering & Construction, Aker Solutions ASA and JTEKT Corporation.

Investment Rationale:
Larsen & Toubro’s (L&T) has a strong order growth from the Buildings and Factories (B&F) segment and this helped to offset weak order inflows from other segments such as power, oil & gas and process. As the order inflows from other segments have dried up, L&T has turned aggressive in the buildings segment which was previously less focused area for L&T. L&T has emerged as a preferred contractor in the premium residential segment which has helped the company in growing its order book, and incrementally the company is shifting its focus into mid-income housing also, to maintain order inflow growth. The real estate contracting business is a fragmented industry with the presence of many organised and unorganised players. Some of the larger companies operating in this business are namely Shapoorji Pallonji; Simplex; Nagarjuna Construction; Ahluwalia Contractors; Gammon India; Pratibha Industries; IL&FS Engineering & Construction (formerly Maytas Infra); Man Infra; Vascon Engineers; Supreme Infrastructure; and Ramky Infra. L&T has recently bagged orders from premium clients. The competitive landscape has turned favorable for L&T as other real estate contracting companies have been battling with stressed balanced sheets and increasing receivables that limit their ability to bid for new projects. Some large players in real estate contracting, like, Gammon India, Nagarjuna Constructions and Simplex Infra, were inflicted by the increasing debt burden due to their asset-heavy balance sheets. Given L&T’s well capitalized balance sheet with well-respected execution abilities in the industry, it was one of the obvious choices for developers like DLF and Godrej Properties to outsource their construction contracts to best managed contractors like L&T which helped L&T to gain market share in Building & Factories segment. L&T has also forayed into the real-estate segment as a developer for some projects, eg, Emerald Isle in Powai, Mumbai, Crescent Bay in Parel, Mumbai, Eden Park, Chennai and as a co-developer for Omkar Veda, Parel, Mumbai

Outlook and Valuation:
1 x 388.5 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant in
Andhra 
Pradesh
L&T on 1st of April 2013 announced to have secured India’s first ever complete EPC order for 2 x 660 MW Super-critical Thermal Power Project on a complete Engineering Procurement & Construction (EPC) basis from Rajasthan Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Ltd worth Rs. 5689 Cr. This order involves designing, engineering, manufacture, supply, erection and commissioning of two coal-fired thermal units of 660 MW each with super-critical parameters at Chhabra in Baran District in Rajasthan. This project has a stringent completion schedule of 42 months for unit 1 and 45 months for unit 2. With this contract, L&T now has orders for supply and installation of 26 Super-critical Steam Generators and Steam Turbine Generators of 660 MW, 700 MW and 800 MW. L&T on 28th March 2013 completed its acquitions of Audco India Ltd – India’s leading manufacturer of Industrial valves and a JV with Audco UK a wholly owned subsidiary of Flowserve Corporation, USA (Flowserve). This acquisition is in line with L&T’s overall portfolio rationalization, this deal will help grow L&T’s Valve business globally with comprehensive range of valve offerings. L&T looks good buy looking at its strong order book, infrastructure opportunities and potential of value unlocking in its subsidiaries. Its core business would drive earnings, as it has robust order book and good revenue visibility. Subsidiaries like IT Services, and Infra would be lead to better valuation. The infra-led growth would also be backed by growing portfolio and geographical reach. L&T is expected to clock in a 20 % CAGR over FY12-15E in revenues keeping the Book-to-Bill ratio (2.1-1.8x) trend more or less the same. However, any adverse mix in terms of order inflow may alter the margins. L&T is expected to have a 10 % CAGR in standalone earnings for the period of FY12-15E which is again not an out-of-reach of any one’s assumption. Order wins in Jan-Feb 2013 were close to Rs. 3,900 Cr which were a mix of B&F (Government), Defence, Hydrocarbon and Power. Further, with the impetus given to DMIC, DFC and other BOT projects in transportation (Budget 2013-14), along with a strong financial backing, L&T is expected to be able to secure sizable orders. With just a month away from end of FY13E, order inflow stands at Rs. 64,000 Cr, implying Rs. 17,100 Cr order inflow in March 2013. Historically, Q4 has been a strong period where the order inflows are sizable. The fair value of L&T on stand-alone basis using DCF comes at Rs. 1,361.53/share, while the valuation of its investments in subsidiaries comes at Rs. 403.5/share totaling to value of Rs. 1764.90/share. On the valuation front, L&T could post EPS of Rs. 77.36 for FY14E & Rs. 88.55 for FY15E. Any further price correction provides a good opportunity to Buy L&T at at a target price of Rs. 1500 for shorter term and for long term it would be Rs. 1765.00.

Business Subsidiary FY13E
Rs/Share
L&T Financial Holding Ltd
177.37
L&T Infotech
87.00
L&T International FZE
25.00
L&T MHI Boilers
2.00
L&T MHI Turbine Generators
2.00
L&T Special Steels and 
Heavy Forgings Pvt Ltd (NPCIL JV)
11.00
EWAC Alloys
5.00
L&T Power Ltd
3.00
L&T Power Development Ltd 
29.00
L&T IDPL
65.00
L&T Real Estate Projects 
29.00         
L&T Shipbuilding
14.00
Other manufacturing sub. , JV           
10.00
Loans and Advances to subsidiaries
45.00
TOTAL
504.37
Less:20% Holding Company Disco.
100.87
GRAND TOTAL
403.50

KEY FINANCIALSFY12 FY13EFY14EFY15E
SALES (Rs. Crs)53,170.50 60,875.20 67,840.20 77,302.70 
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs) 4,456.504,733.204,737.605,423.10
EPS (Rs.)71.1177.2977.3688.55
PE (x)19.2017.7017.6015.40
P/BV (x)3.302.902.602.30
EV/EBITDA (x)14.5013.4012.5010.80
ROE (%)18.9017.6015.6016.00
ROCE (%)9.208.608.208.60


I would buy LARSEN & TOUBRO LTD with a price target of Rs. 1765 for Medium to Long term and Rs. 1500 for the Short term players. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 1311.36 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

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