Dear Readers, BHAVIKK SHAH's BLOG is totally free website. Contents here should be viewed for Knowledge purpose only. Author does not charge for any kinds of the services. Kindly don't entertain to any of the paid services in a name of BHAVIKK SHAH's BLOG !!

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD: THINK BETTER, BUY BETTER !!!

Scrip Code: 500825BRITANNIA
CMP:  Rs. 875.60; Buy at current levels.
Medium to Long term Target – Rs. 1010; 
STOP LOSS – Rs. 805.55; Market Cap: Rs. 10,481.00 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 444.90 / Rs. 881.80
Total Shares: 11,97,00,815 shares; Promoters : 6,08,68,345 shares – 50.85 %; Total Public holding : 5,88,32,470 shares – 49.15 %; Book Value: Rs. 53.52; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 23.09; Dividend: 425.00% ; P/E: 37.92 times; Ind P/E: 37.97; EV/EBITDA: 21.52.
Total Debt: 341.35 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 10,800.50 Cr.

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD: The Company was founded in 1892 with an initial investment of Rs. 295.00 and is based in Bengaluru, India. It was earlier known as Britannia Biscuit Company and changed its name to Britannia Industries Ltd in 1979. The company is the subsidiary of Associated Biscuits International Limited. The company offered 18,00,000 shares of Rs. 10 each at a premium of Rs. 5 to the general public in the January, 1978. Britannia Industries Limited engages in the production and sale of bakery and dairy products in India and internationally. Its Bakery products include biscuits, bread, cakes, and rusk; and Dairy products comprise milk, butter, cheese, ghee, and dahi (curd), as well as milk-based ready to drink beverages and dairy whiteners. The company offers its products under various brands, including Tiger, Good Day, 50-50, Marie Gold, Treat, Milk Bikis, NutriChoice, Time Pass, Pure Magic, Little Hearts, Nice Time, Greetings, Premium Bake, and Healthy Start. It also manufactures and sells gourmet bakery products, which include specialty breads, cakes, pastries, and cookies through the company’s own retail stores under the brand name of Daily Bread. Its subsidiaries include AL Sallan Food Industries Co SAOC, Britannia Dairy Pvt. Ltd, Boribunder Finance & Investment Pvt. Ltd, Daily Bread Gourmet Foods (India) Pvt. Ltd, Ganges Vally Foods Pvt. Ltd, International Bakery Products Ltd, Sunrise Biscuits Co. Pvt. Ltd, Manna Foods Pvt. Ltd, J.B Mangaram Foods Pvt. Ltd. Britannia Ind Ltd is locally compared with Parle Products, Nestle India Ltd, Ruchi Soya Industries Ltd, Heritage Foods Ltd, Kwality Ltd, ITC Ltd, and Globally with United Biscuits of UK, ConAgra Foods Inc of USA, Kraft Food Group Inc of USA, Hershey Company of United States of America, Campbell Soup Company of USA, Dean Foods Co of USA, LaSalle Brands Co of USA, Enlightened Gourmet Inc of USA,  PepsiCo USA, Iwatsuka Confectionery Company Ltd of Japan, Bourbon Corporation of Japan, Kameda Seika Co., Ltd of Japan.

Investment Rationale:
Bakery is a traditional activity and occupies an important place in food processing industry. The bakery manufactures in India can be differentiated into Bread, Biscuits and Cakes. About 1.3 million tonnes of the bakery products industry in India is in organized sector out of 3 million tonnes whereas the rest are from unorganised and small scale local manufactures. Bakery products are an item of mass consumption which are low priced and has rapid growth. With changing eating habits of people, bakery products have gained popularity among masses. The unorganized sector accounts to about half of the total biscuit production estimated at 1.5 million tonnes. It also account for 85 % of total bread production and around 90 % of the bakery products estimated at 0.60 million tonnes, this includes pastries, cakes,buns, rusks and others. Biscuit market growth has although slowed down as indexed sales growth has registered only 35 % of earlier levels, the pace of premiumisation has also slowed down a bit, however Britannia’s premium brands straddle across price points and are affordable, enabling the company to sustain its growth in this environment. Good monsoons and Food Security bill would be seen as a boost to company’s growth rates in coming quarters. The rural India offers huge growth opportunity as Britannia’s market share in rural India is only 70 % of its urban share from the total market share of 33 %. With strong brand equity and pricing power can increase growth significantly, although the efficient and cost effective distribution remains a challenge for this company. Britannia plans a capex of around Rs. 450 Cr aiming at Bigger Units with a capacity of 15000 MT per unit; multiples lines of 3 per unit; fiscal benefits of VAT refund in Bihar and Orissa for 10 years estimated to be around Rs. 18 Cr in FY13. Britannia has reduced conversion costs by 0.90 % and overheads by 1.10 % in 1QFY14. The Cost reduction were in freight, energy (bio mass in new units), raw material sourcing (reverse auction) and distribution (integration of dairy and bakery, low volume SKU rationalisation) has led to these savings. Management is aiming at simplifying the systems and processes with focus on bigger manufacturing plants, bigger innovations, lean organisation structure and better distribution which will enable further cost reduction in coming periods as well. Volatility in input costs remains a challenge; however recent quarters show benefits of cost control measures in a stable input cost scenario. While stable input costs environment have aided this improvement, the company’s cost rationalisation efforts across the value chain have started bearing fruit. In addition to increasing premiumisation, company has worked on saving energy and distribution costs, improving revenue per employee and better manufacturing technology in its bid to improve profitability. Britannia will continue with its focus on improving margins and the management expects to maintain margins going forward as well. Stable input prices (led by a good monsoon) will also support margins. It is expected that the to expand by 2.20 % over FY13-15, led by favourable base and premiumisation benefits. EBITDA margins could see an expansion of 1.60 % over FY13-15 to 7.4 %, this margin expansion is significant given the slowing down biscuits segment (in sync with overall consumption slowdown). In the June 2013 quarter, biscuits category growth stood at one-thirds of that witnessed in June 2012 quarter. Thus, focus on profitability will enable Britannia to minimise the impact of the slowdown.


Outlook and Valuation: 
The branded packaged segment in this sector had a size of Rs. 17,000 Cr in last fiscal and is expected to grow at 13 % - 15 % in next 3-4 years. Within biscuits there are few players like Parle, ITC and Cadbury which commands about 75 % of market share. The bakery industry has achieved 3 positions in generating revenue among the processed food sector. The market size for the industry is expected to be at US$ 760 Cr by 2015, and the shining star of the sector will be Biscuits Industry. The per capita consumption of bakery products in India is very low, about 1 to 2 kgs per annum, which is comparatively much lower than the developed countries where consumption is between 10 and 50 kg per annum. The growth rate of bakery products has been tremendous in both urban and rural areas. Britannia is stepping up its rural presence as well as expanding its food and snacks portfolio to drive long-term growth. Notably, rural markets have remained fairly stable as compared to urban markets during this slowdown and hence, company’s strategy of increasing rural penetration seems to be appropriate. Improved financial health of its Dairy and International businesses will also aid growth. While an unprecedented rise in input costs remains the key risk, monetisation of its land assets at Chennai and Bengaluru will act as key stock price catalysts. Management believes that a 2.00 % decline in overheads led by reduction in energy cost, freight, distribution, proprietary technology and own manufacturing units is sustainable Key brands like 50‐50, Goodday, Mariegold and Milk Bikis which have sustained high double digit growth rates Britannia is following 3 pronged strategy based on Innovation, cost control and revenue management to drive profitable growth for the company. Company is looking forward to restructure its cost base by implementing comprehensive projects from design to delivery. Company also focuses on its revenue management by differentiating brands and differentiating pricing. Gross Margins have expanded by 2.50 %, while EBITDA margins have expanded by 3.30 %. Britannia had a strong run in the recent past at the bourses on the back of significant improvement in its profitability which has supported its financial performance in the current slowing demand scenario. The company’s strong brands, improving sales mix (in favour of premium products) and healthy cash generation are its key positives. Most analysts remain positive on the company and expect 15-18 % from current levels. Britannia is trading at 23.3 times FY14 estimated earnings and at 15-25 % discount to listed peers ITC, Nestle, Marico & GSK Consumer, largely due to low operating margin. However, due to on-going structural changes in company’s revenue and product mix, the operating margin will improve and this discount could narrow down gradually. The global baked goods market has shown rapid recovery following the economic recession, recording strong growth over recent years. Factors fuelling market expansion include convenience, affordability and health benefits of baked goods products. Demand for healthier fortified baked products has also driven sales. At the current market price of Rs. 875.60, the stock P/E ratio is at 32.55 x FY14E and 24.45 x FY15E respectively. Company’s Earnings per share (EPS) of the company for FY14E and FY15E is seen at Rs. 26.90 and Rs. 35.80 respectively. Britannia Ind could be good buy for the target price of Rs. 1010 for Medium to Long term investment.

KEY FINANCIALSFY12FY13FY14EFY15E
SALES ( Crs)4,974.205,615.506,505.107,603.40
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)186.80233.90321.30427.50
EPS ()15.6019.6026.9035.80
PE (x)44.9035.9026.1019.60
P/BV (x)16.1013.0010.608.30
EV/EBITDA (x)30.4022.9015.6012.00
ROE (%)38.5040.2044.7047.40
ROCE (%)22.7027.7035.4040.80

I would buy BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES LTD for Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 1010. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or ₹ 805.55 on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON
RETURN ON CAPITAL


--------------------------------

3 comments :

  1. Once again a very detailed post and there is so much to learn. Your introductory comment is apt, I have no idea about the share market but have been learning slowly and steadily from the master- YOU.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Very nice site for stock market...



    Welcome to http://way2stockguru.blogspot.in/. we are thankful as you have visited our site.

    http://way2stockguru.blogspot.in/ is situated at Bangalore in karnataka. Our aim is to forecast your sight in Indian stock market.

    http://way2stockguru.blogspot.in/
    http://way2stockguru.blogspot.in/
    http://way2stockguru.blogspot.in/

    24.10.2013 INTRADAY 100% ROCKET JACKPOT BUY SELL TIPS ;-

    BUY NIFTY ABV 6250 T 6270 6290 6310
    SELL BLW 6160 T 6140 6120 6100------

    BUY BANKNF ABV 10900 T 10950 11000 11150
    SELL BLW 10700 T 10650 10600 10550-------




    BUY WIPRO ABV 512 T 516 520 524
    SELL BLW 506 T 502 498 494 --------

    BUY TCS ABV 2090 T 2100 2110 2120
    SELL BLW 2070 T 2060 2050 2040------

    BUY TISCO ABV 338 T 341 344 347
    SELL BLW 335 T 332 329 326 --------

    BUY TELCO ABV 384 T 387 390 393
    SELL BLW 380 T 377 374 371 ---------

    BUY RELINFRA ABV 435 T 439 443 447
    SELL BLW 430 T 426 422 418 --------

    BUY PNB ABV 490 T 494 498 502
    SELL BLW 484 T 480 476 472

    BUY KOTAK ABV 720 T 724 728 732
    SELL BLW 714 T 710 706 702

    BUY INFOSYS ABV 3370 T 3385 3400 3415
    SELL BLW 3330 T 3315 3300 3285

    BUY HLL ABV 610 T 614 618 622
    SELL BLW 604 T 600 596 592

    ReplyDelete
  3. Nice one,.
    I did have some shares of Britannia, but sold them... Should have added more! Too late to do so?

    ReplyDelete

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Share

Why you should have a Stop Loss of 8 % ? Click to know more. Author is also on Facebook and Click here for SHORT STORIES

X