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Wednesday, September 3, 2014

GREENPLY INDUSTRIES LTD : A GOOD BUSINESS !!!

Scrip Code: 526797 GREENPLY
CMP:  Rs. 1001.90; Buy at current levels & at dips.

Short Term Target: Rs. 1050.00; Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 1100; STOP LOSS – Rs. 920.00; Market Cap: Rs. 2,418.22 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 1040.00 / Rs. 301.00

Total Shares: 2,41,36,374 shares; Promoters : 1,32,75,000 shares – 55.00 %; Total Public holding : 1,08,61,374 shares – 55.00 %; Book Value: Rs. 241.60; Face Value: Rs. 5.00; EPS: Rs. 50.60; Dividend: 60.00 % ; P/E: 19.80 times; Ind. P/E: 24.90; EV/EBITDA: 10.75.
Total Debt:  549.50 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 2,964.390 Cr.

GREENPLY INDUSTRIES LIMITED: Greenply Industries Ltd was established on August 9, 1984 and incorporated in 1990 and is based in Kolkata, India. The company was earlier known as Mittal Laminates Private Ltd and changed to Greeply Industries Ltd in 1995. The company came out with an IPO of about 10 lakh shares in April 1995 at par. The company, in May 2005, declared split in its face value from Rs. 10 to Rs. 5. Greenply Industries Limited, an interior infrastructure company, manufactures, markets, and distributes plywood, laminates, particleboards, and allied products primarily in India. Its interior infrastructure products include decorative veneers and laminates, plywood, block boards, flush doors, medium density fiberboards, and restroom cubicles, laminated flooring and UV coated panels, and others. The company offers its products under the Greenlam, Greenply Plywood, Green Club Premium Ply, Greenlam Laminates, Green Decowood, Ecotec, and Green Panelmax brand names. The Company’s flagship decorative laminate brand is very well known ‘Greenply,’ is exported to more than 50 countries. Currently, Greenply has become the largest laminate company in Asia and the fifth largest globally in terms of capacity. The Company has 7 manufacturing facilities located across India at Tizit (Nagaland), Kriparampur (West Bengal), Nalagarh (Himachal Pradesh) and 2 units at Pantnagar (Uttarakhand). Company has 46 marketing offices and a network of approximately 15,000 distributors, dealers, sub-dealers, and retailers. Greenply Industries Limited also exports its products to North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. Greenply Industries Ltd. Greenply Industries Limited is locally compared with Centryply Ltd, Archidply Industries Ltd, Uniply Industries, Mangalam Timber Products ltd, Novopan Industries Ltd, Mayur ply Industries Ltd, Sarda Plywood Industries and globally compared with Boise Cascade Company USA, Deltic Timber Corporation of Arkansas, Louisiana-Pacific Corporation from Tennessee, Seven Industries Co., Ltd of Japan, Nankai Plywood Co., Ltd of Japan, Eksons Corporation Berhad of Malaysia, UPM-Kymmene Oyji from Finland, Stora Enso Oyj-R shs of Finland, Munksjo Oyj of Sweden, Ence Energia y Celulsa S.A of Spain, Shandong Chenming Holding of China, Nine Dragons Holdings of China, Indah Kait Pulp & Pare Tbk of Indonesia, Sappi Limited of South Africa.

Investment Rationale:
Greenply Industries Ltd is the leading plywood manufacturer in India. It has more than 46 marketing offices across all state capitals and major cities of India. It has a strong network of more than 15,000 distributors, dealers, sub-dealers and retailers. The Company holds almost 30 % market share in India’s organized plywood market and around 18 % of India’s organized laminates market. Greenply Industries Ltd has started commercial production of 'laminated wooden flooring' at the Company's existing MDF Unit at Pantnagar situated in Uttarakhand. India is one of the largest markets globally for different types of furniture. It is estimated that the furniture market in India is likely to witness a CAGR of about 30 % over the next three years. In fact, an independent industry research institute and consulting firm, CSIL Milano has classified India as one of the 14 largest furniture markets in the world. This is due to the rising purchasing power of the more than 40 Cr strong middle-class segment. India’s organised furniture industry is estimated at around US$ 800 Cr and is expected to grow at a CAGR of about 25 % to 30 % annually. The modular furniture market in India was estimated to be about US$ 16 Cr by the Index Media Consulting report. The size of the international range of premium furniture was estimated at about US$ 2 Cr and largely serviced by foreign players and imports. Furniture consumption in India recorded about 10 % average annual growth over the last decade, reaching about US$ 15 billion in 2013 at retail prices. India’s organised furniture sector is marked by about 5,000 companies and nearly 10,500 importers. India imports are around US$ 15 Cr worth of furniture, catering primarily to urban affluent households. India’s interior decor industry is heading towards high-end, low maintenance, quickly installable and customisable products. Branded furniture accounts for a 30 % market share in India. Recently, IKEA announced its intentions of investing Rs.10,500 Cr (1.2 billion euro) following the recent policy change, which permitted 100 % foreign direct investment (FDI) in single-brand retail, which can potentially widen this sector. India’s median age of 24 make India a young country with a large productive workforce. India’s per capital income was projected to increase 10.4 % to Rs. 74,920 in 2013-14 as the country becomes a $1.7 trillion economy, driving consumption in the country. India has the highest urban population rate of change among BRIC nations. The country’s urban population accounted for 31.6 % of its total population. By 2015, the country’s urban population is expected to grow 2.5 % above the 1.3 % growth in the total population. At this rate, it is estimated that around 84.3 Cr people will live in Indian cities by 2050, offering growing opportunities for its real estate and furniture sector. The Indian office furniture segment is estimated at around US$ 1.6 billion, with 40% of that is generated through the provision for desks. The modular furniture market in India, estimated to be about Rs. 800 crore, and is dominated by bigger players. The market size of the international range of premium furniture is estimated to be worth about Rs. 100 crore, and is primarily catered to by foreign players. It is expected to grow at the rate of 10-15 % over the next three or four years driven by demand from modern work spaces. The Indian interior infrastructure sector is growing at a CAGR of 5-7 %. The plywood and laminates is a highly fragmented industry. The share of the unorganized sector is about 78 % in plywood and about 45 % in laminates. The growth registered by organised sector is 15-20 %, in comparison to overall industry growth of 5 %, indicates a shift of customer preferences from unbranded to branded goods. India’s wood panel market grew at a CAGR of 6-8 % over FY08-FY12 in volume terms. Currently, 30-35 % of the MDF demand is met through imports. It is expected to grow in line with growth of wood panel market. Organised players have increased their presence on account of rising aspirations and brand consciousness.  

Outlook and Valuation:

Greenply Industries Ltd is a leader in the manufacturing and marketing of a wide range of interior infrastructure products. India’s rapidly expanding economy is seeing growing affluence, both in urban and rural areas. The tremendous penetration of the mass media has also resulted in millions of middle-class Indians aspiring for more lavish lifestyles. Furniture-makers are catering to the unmet urban middle-class need for stylish homes in compact apartments. With the Indian economy and the real estate sector continuing to grow at a phenomenal pace, demand for office and home furniture is expected to expand even further. The entry of a number of international players and the rapid emergence of domestic brands is transforming the industry, offering Indian consumer a wide range of home and office furniture to choose from. The furniture industry market size is expected to touch Rs. 12,000 crore by 2015. Greenply being leading this sector is a clear winner and beneficiary with this mid class boom. On financial side, Greenlam Exports business has grown at a CAGR of 24 % over last 5 years. 47 % business contribution of laminates comes from international market, making Greenply the largest exporter of decorative laminates from India and that also for last four consecutive years. Company’s Exports grew by 23.57 % in laminates business of Rs. 315.87 crores and contributed 14.64 % of the net revenue for the year 2014. Exports contribute 48 % and 47 % respectively in volume & value terms to the laminates business. The company Commenced production of Laminated Flooring and launched its new products to expand its presence in the economic plywood segment which is valued at more than Rs 12,0000 Cr. Company’s Green Panelmax Plain, Pre-Laminated and Veneered Medium Density Fibreboards (MDF) Boards are approved for use in defence works by the Military Engineering Services is added advantage to the company. Greenply Industries Ltd’s Laminates Segment has increased its production to 10.76 mn sheets in FY 2014 from 10.37 mn sheets in FY 2013 and has achieved capacity utilisation of 104 %. Company recently incorporated Greenply Industries (Myanmar) Pvt. Ltd. as a wholly-owned subsidiary for setting up of a Veneer or Veneer-cum-Plywood Unit in Myanmar. Greenply Industries (Myanmar) Pvt. Ltd has obtained approval of the Myanmar investment commission to set up the unit and has completed commissioning of Veneering Line and has started trial Production of Commercial Veneers. Additionally, Greenply is venturing into Lumber business (Teak Sawn Timber in FY 2015) and Plywood (FY 2016). On Financial side, Company’s Revenue for the quarter rose by 7.55 % to Rs. 517.08 Cr. The company’s net profit jumped to Rs. 30.22 Cr in 1st quarter of FY 2014-15 as against Rs. 22.56 Cr in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, an increase of 33.95 %. Profit before interest, depreciation and tax is Rs. 68.87 Cr as against Rs. 58.43 Cr in the corresponding period of the previous year. With the proven track record it is expected that Greenply’s net sales and PAT can post a growth of 9 % each CAGR over 2013 to 2016E respectively. At the current market price of Rs. 1001.90, the stock is trading at its all-time high P/E of 18.10x FY15E, 16.23x FY16E. The company can post EPS of Rs. 55.34 for FY15E and Rs. 61.53 for FY16E. One can buy GREENPLY INDUSTRIES LIMITED with a target price of Rs. 1100.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 1050.00.

KEY FINANCIALSFY13FY14FY15EFY16E
SALES ( Crs)2,000.812,159.512,365.752,578.67
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)114.16114.46133.56148.50
EPS ()47.3047.4355.3461.53
PE (x)18.3818.3315.7114.13
P/BV (x)4.403.602.962.52
EV/EBITDA (x)10.169.888.908.07
ROE (%)23.9419.6418.8517.81
ROCE (%)29.3328.9328.8028.88

I would buy GREENPLY INDUSTRIES LTD for Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 1100.00 and for the shorter term the target would be Rs. 1050.00. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of ₹ 920.00 on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

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20 comments :

  1. Voted for you Bhavikk (vote No 10) All the best :-)
    Here is mine:
    http://www.bigblogexchange.org/profile/2014/5686536431468544

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hello Zachariah Joe Sir,
    Thanks for your valuable vote and Yes I too have voted for You :)
    All the very best to you too Sir
    Have a great day ahead
    Rgards
    Bhavikk shah

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi bhavikk
    This is ronit !
    Sir I have position in dhanuka agritech and it is quite trading in range . Sir what's your view on this stock for near term . Also I have pvr since 640 level which is now over 710 . Should I hold this stock or ext it .
    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Ronit,
    Hold PVR my long term view on PVR is around 880, and hold on to Dhanuka also follow the targets on Dhanuka as mentioned
    have a great day Ahead
    Regards
    Bhavikk shah

    ReplyDelete
  5. Sir,
    What is your view on

    01. V2 Retail
    02. AVT Natural
    03. SHREE Rama News print
    04. Country Club
    05. Polyplex
    06. Mayur Uni.
    07. Jay Bharat Maruti
    08. SRS Limited
    09. Dhanuka Agri.
    10. Polaris
    11. Singer India

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi
    I would suggest to go for Dhanuka Agri & Polaris and ignore the rest

    ReplyDelete
  7. Good evening bhavikk sir
    Your dhanuka agri rocked today zoomed 12% in today's sessions
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Sir what is your view on tourism finance balance sheet and figure r highly robust. Pls share information wanted to buy such mid cap stock. Or kindly suggest 2-3 stock which could be worth buying in mid cap sector.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi Anonymous,
    Hold on to Tourism Finance - although it has some problems but fundamentally is good HOLD on

    ReplyDelete
  10. what is your view on Munjal Auto and R System Intl?

    ReplyDelete
  11. You have here given a great report on it so anybody can easily knows about the future fundamentals about it. Thanks for sharing here.
    Stock Trading Tips

    ReplyDelete
  12. Sir, what is your take on "Zenith Fiber"?

    ReplyDelete
  13. HI Anonymous,
    Ignore Zenith Fiber not good for holding long term

    ReplyDelete
  14. Sir,
    What is your view on "Ahmednagar Forging"?

    ReplyDelete
  15. Helllo bhavik
    I bot idfc yesterday at 150 .. can u pls suggest me if I can hold it for short term what should be my target ? Please .

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hello Anonymouses
    A humble request ,
    Kindly comment using ur name & dont comment using Anonymous Option...
    I will not be enthusiastic enough to reply all the anonymous queries..
    Kindly forgive if the answers are not in detail to the queires posted as Anonymous
    Avoid Ahemdnagar Forging and Hold on to IDFC

    ReplyDelete
  17. Thanks for sharing with us, I will be always your follower.
    Consulting Firms Directory

    ReplyDelete

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