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Monday, January 23, 2017

TITAN COMPANY LTD : SHINE UNFADING !!!

Scrip Code: 500114 TITAN
CMP:  Rs. 360.70; Market Cap: Rs. 32,022.44 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 444.50 / Rs. 296.15.
Total Shares: 88,77,86,160 shares; Promoters : 47,10,07,920 shares – 53.05 %; Total Public holding : 41,67,78,240 shares – 46.94 %; Book Value: Rs. 39.59; Face Value: Rs. 1.00; EPS: Rs. 8.14; Dividend: 220.00 % ; P/E: 44.31 times; Ind. P/E: 45.24; EV/EBITDA: 30.28; Total Debt: Rs. 113.05 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 32,056.55 Cr.


TITAN COMPANY LTD:  The Company was founded on 26th July 1984 and is based in Bengaluru, India. Titan was promoted jointly by Questar Investments Ltd a Tata Company with its associates Tata Sons Ltd and Tata Press Ltd and the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO) with main objective to manufacture analog electonic watches with over 150 designs. The company was earlier known as Titan Watches Ltd and changed its name to Titan Industries Ltd in 1993 and again in 2013 the company changed its name to Titan Company Ltd. The Company had declared split in face value of its shares from Rs. 10 to Rs. 1 on 29 April 2011 and on same date it also declared bonus in ratio of 1:1. Titan Industries Limited manufactures and retail sale of watches, jewelry, clocks, and eye wear primarily in India and internationally. The company provides its watches under Titan Edge, Titan Raga, Nebula, Sonata, Xylys, Fastrack brands. It also markets international brands, such as Versace, Seiko, Tommy Hilfiger, Hugo Boss, Esprit, Raymond Weil, DKNY, Baume & Mercier and Victorinox under a licensed agreement. It also offers jewelry under the Tanishq and Goldplus brand names, as well as operates a chain of luxury jewelry boutiques under the Zoya brand. In addition, the company provides sunglasses under its Fastrack brand; and prescription eyewear, such as lenses and contact lenses. It sells frames, sunglasses, and accessories of proprietary brands and other premium brands, as well as provides optometry services. Further, the company provides precision engineering components and sub-assemblies, machine building and automation solutions, tooling solutions, and electronic sub-assemblies for use various industries, in aerospace, automotive, oil and gas, engineering, hydraulics, solar, and medical instruments. It operates approximately 1100 retail stores across a carpet area of over 1.3 million sq. ft. spanning over 204 towns. The company has over 364 World of Titan showrooms; over 140 Fastrack stores; 928 after-sales-service centers; It also has approximately 145 Tanishq boutiques and 2 Zoya stores; over 31 Gold Plus stores; and approximately 220 Titan Eye+ stores. Titan Company has more than around 7,000 employees, two exclusive design studios for watches and Jewellery, 10 manufacturing units all around India. The company also sells its product through departmental stores such as Shoppers stop, Central, Westside, Pantaloons & Reliance retail. Titan Industries Ltd is locally compared with Renaissance Jewelery, Goldiam International, Atlas Jewellery India Ltd, Winsome Diamonds, Parekh Platinum, Gitanjali Gems Ltd, Surana Corporation Limited, Shrenuj & company, Rajesh Exports, Shree Ganesh Jewellary House I Ltd, SBT & International and globally compared with Citizen Holdings Co Ltd of Japan, Casio Computer Co Ltd of Japan, F&A Aqua Holdings INC of Japan, Guess? INC of USA, Rolex of Switzerland, Omega of Switzerland, Oakley of USA, Timex of USA, Seiko of Japan, TAG Heuer of Switzerland, Patek Philippe of Switzerland, Swatch Group of Europe .   

Investment Rationale:
Titan Industries Ltd is the world’s fifth largest integrated watch manufacturer with a market share of around 65 % in the domestic organised watch market and also enjoys market share of around 40 % in the organised jewellery retailing market where the company offers gold and diamond jewellery through its popular brands - Tanishq, Gold Plus and Zoya. Titan Industries Ltd is the organization that brought about a paradigm shift in the Indian watch market when it introduced its futuristic quartz technology, complemented by international styling. India is the fifth largest retail destination globally and the Indian retail industry has experienced tremendous growth over the last decade with a significant shift towards organised retailing format and development taking place not just in major cities and metros, but also in Tier II and Tier III cities. The overall retail market in India is likely to reach Rs. 48 trillion by FY 18. As India’s retail industry aggressively expands itself, online medium of retail is gaining more and more acceptance there is a tremendous growth opportunity for retail companies, both domestic and international. Favourable demographics, increasing urbanisation, nuclear families, rising affluence amid consumers, growing preference for branded products and higher aspirations are other factors which drives retail consumption in India. Both organised and unorganised retail are bound not only to coexist but also achieve rapid and sustained growth in the coming years. The Indian retail market, currently estimated at around US$ 490 billion, is project to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6 % to reach US$ 865 billion by 2023. Organised retail, which constituted 7 % of total retail in 2011–12, is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 24 % and attain 10.25 % share of total retail by 2016–17. India has about 10 lakhs online retailers – small and large – which sell their products through various ecommerce portals. India remains a largely untapped and unorganised retail market, with several international retail companies yet to commence operations in the country. India holds a substantial advantage over other emerging retail destinations owing to its strong domestic consumption and low rate of market penetration by overseas retailers. India's new middle class is increasingly becoming brand conscious and willing to spend on quality goods, a trend which is creating numerous business opportunities for mid-range international brands. With political and economic sentiments already showing signs of improvement, this could be the right time for international retailers to look at India for expansion into the region. With this growth in the ecommerce Industry, online retail is estimated to reach US$ 70 billion by 2020 from US$ 0.6 billion in 2011. According to the World Gold Council, gold demand rose 15 % in Q3 2015; the council maintains that demand grew in both the urban and rural segments. The overall long‐term environment remains exciting considering the Indian consumption story. The 3 aspects of consumption i.e. the demographic dividend, rising incomes of Indian consumers and growing aspirations of Indians excites the company. Titan Company participates in categories that are unorganised, under‐served and under‐penetrated. Titan always tries to make pro consumer choices for example in the watch business, the company moved from mechanical watches to quartz watches. Being in the unorganized sector also has its pros like large opportunity in branded space, improved quality of competition and category transformation and cons like non level playing field for organized players and regulations. Titan derives 80 % of its revenues from Jewellery business. Titan has 4 % market share in gold Jewellery & 7 % market share in diamond segment. The month of October witnessed a robust overall growth with Tanishq reporting a growth of 39 % during the festive period. However, following the announcement of demonetization on November 8,2017 there was a sharp decline in sales due to cash crunch and muted sentiments of customers. Since, large part of estimated around 60 % of Tanishq customers pays through the digital mode and the profile of the consumer is different from that of unorganised players, the jewellery division has revived daily sales traction to pre-demonetisation days i.e. post the festive period. Management indicated that decline in sales is not as high as 30 % to 40 % post demonetization and sales are mainly driven by gold exchange schemes. Government policies in the recent past coupled with the demonetization of Rs. 500 & 1000 notes will bring structural changes in the industry which augurs well for organised players like Tanishq. Post demonetization, the cost of doing business for an unorganised player is likely to get expensive which will result in them passing on the higher cost to their customer and improve the competitive positioning of Tanishq. Titan has already reduced its making charges over the past 1-2 years especially at the lower end which has changed the price perception of Tanishq. Further, its replacement offer is better when compared to unorganised players. The management in concall highlighted that the Watches segment has also been impacted adversely due to the demonetization announcement, however retail channel sales have revived. Trade channel for watches is still under pressure with a demand shortfall of 20 % to 30 %. The company expects the impact of demonetization to stabilise in FY18. Further, it expects to get benefit from the demand shift from unorganised to organised retail. Tanishq continues to endeavour to bring in new and exciting designs, thereby enticing customers to furnish the PAN cards and purchase jewellery. Management believes that the company could benefit from demonetization with respect to increasing its franchise network as few unorganised players would shift to Tanishq. Many jewellers are forced to shut shop due to supply side cash crunch as there’s no liquidity with vendors. Titan offers its cash strapped vendors’ funding facilities and hence can carry on with business as usual. Helios has been largely immune from the impact of demonetisation due to its lower ticket size and high share of credit/debit card customer’s vs cash paying customers. The Golden Harvest Scheme (GHS) enrolments have been steady and there has been no impact on the monthly instalments. Due to a reduction in premium on USD, the gold on lease option has become as attractive as buying gold on spot. The Industry sources suggest that the overall jewellery industry in India has declined by 15 % to 20 % in CY16, while Titan’s jewellery revenues have reported a growth of 2 %, indicating an increase in market share during CY16. It is expected that the government regulations such as compulsory hallmarking, demonetisation/drive towards cashless transaction and GST to bode well for the organised sector, accelerating the shift from unorganised to organised retail. Titan has the largest network of after sale service for watches in India. This is proving to be an advantage as foreign brands entering India are using the network built by Titan. Titan has assiduously positioned itself in the premium designer jewellery space. Titan has the ability to create significant value with its large distribution presence, strong brand, designing skills and proven execution track record. Titan has proved its metal time and again by emerging strong and successful against various regulatory hurdles that have emerged over the past one year. With robust balance sheet, strong brand equity and professional management team in place gives the bullish sentiments on Titan.

Outlook and Valuation:

Titan’s success story began in 1984 with a joint venture between the Tata Group and the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation. Titan is the fifth largest integrated own brand watch manufacturer in the world. In addition to ‘Titan’ the watch brand, Titan has also built ‘Tanishq’ the leading jewellery brand over the past few years. Both these brands are among the most recognized and loved brands in India. The company has sold 150 million watches world over and manufactures over 15 million watches every year. Titan is basically a play on evolving Indian consumerism who aspires for branded products and recognition. Titan’s business segment majorly focuses on women and youth who would form the majority of Indian population by 2020. Among its business segments, majority of revenues are contributed by Tanishq which caters to women by launching new designs, collection of diamonds and studded jewelery to attract traditional & working women. Watch business sells products of international brands and in-house made products designed specifically to youth and women under brand names of Fast track & raga respectively. Major growth drivers from the company’s perspective would be the rise in launch of new innovative products & designer collections, expansion of stores & building brands. From macro perspective, positive factors would be rise in discretionary spending, weddings & rise of female economy. Indian annual consumer spending is expected to grow at CAGR of 14% and reach $3.5 Tn in 2020. The Average age of India’s population by 2020 is expected to be 29 years, making India the world’s largest country having young population. India witnesses approximately 10 million of weddings annually and with gold being integral part of it, approximately 400 to 500 tons of gold is exchanged during the marriages. Gold & jewellery approximately accounts for around 40 % of marriage expenses as the tradition of gifting & wearing gold jewels during marriages is inculcated strongly in the minds of Indian people. Indian Wedding industry is worth $38 billion and is expected to grow at a rate of 25 %. Increased spend on weddings is expected to come from Tier II and III cities which are likely to see higher disposable incomes and is expected to drive the growth of wedding industry. In the last 20 years, Indian jewellery demand stood to 575 tons of Gold annually. India is the largest market for Gold, contributing 27 % of world’s jewellery demand and 20 % of total gold demand in 2015; and has high impact on the international Gold market & prices. Titan is proxy play on Indian evolving consumerism and long term story despite headwinds in short term. For Titan, FY16 was a challenging year for the company. The company’s sales income declined 5.4 % while net profit declined 14.2 %. The company launched its first smart watch, ‘Titan JUXT’. The initial response was encouraging. The company expects a good growth opportunity in years to come. The company believes there is an opportunity for all its brands to introduce technology watches to garner a significant share in one of the fast growing segments today. Favre Leuba, the heritage Swiss brand that the company acquired, is being actively worked on for a launch towards the end of FY17. The product, marketing and distribution strategy is being worked upon by a newly constituted team largely from Swiss watch industry. The performance of the jewellery division was dampened on account of various regulations imposed by the government in FY16. The fourth quarter was tough owing to regulatory changes like implementation of PAN card rule for purchases above Rs. 2 lakh and industry strike in March 2016 on account of introduction of 1 % excise duty that was opposed by the jewellery industry. The management believes the worst has played out on the regulatory and competitive fronts and growth trajectory for Tanishq will come back in FY17, aided also substantially by the Golden Harvest Jewellery purchase scheme that is now fully back in place. Despite a slowdown in retail, the eyewear segment grew 12 % in FY16 over previous year. Over 70 new stores were opened during the year taking the total store count to 402. Over 300 new products were introduced during the year. In sunglasses, Fastrack and Titan Glares continued to do well with Fastrack sunglasses selling over 1.10 million pieces during the year. During FY07-15, revenues grew at a CAGR of 26.6 % led by a healthy 31.2 % CAGR in the jewellery segment. It is expected that the jewellery and watches segment to grow at a CAGR of 13% and 8%, respectively, in FY16-19E. Jewellery revenues in FY17 are expected to be buoyed by Gold Harvest Scheme redemption, which was absent in FY16 due to regulatory changes. In the jewellery segment, Titan plans to add new products at different price points to capture higher volume growth. The company is also looking at the online channel as another growth engine to engage with customers who prefer the convenience of online buying and spend higher time and money on online purchases. Also, the management is introducing new collections (Zuhur, Shubham) with exquisite designs to attract customers into buying jewellery. The domestic performance of the watches segment in Q2FY17 saw an increase of 5 % YoY growth. However, overall revenue of the watch segment declined 5 % on account of a decline in exports. Regulatory tightening by the government with the intention of curbing black money could lead to higher compliance from small and unorganised players leading to a level playing field for organised players like Titan resulting in a shift from the unorganised to the organised segment. The company would be a beneficiary of the shift of demand towards the organised segment. Considering its strong brand image and pan-India presence, Titan would be able to double its market share in the Indian jewellery market from the current 5 %. Titan’s operating margin has fluctuated in the past owing to a changing product mix and also impact of rupee movement in the watch segment. On a segmental basis, the gold business has relatively stable margins. The share of studded jewellery does tend to bring some variation as studded jewellery has 3.0x gross margins of plain gold jewellery. Also, in Q1FY17, it introduced a lotus themed collection ‘Niloufer’, which was well received by the market. Strategically, Titan is focusing on introducing high margin products and enhancing its studded share, which would enable it to improve its EBITDA margin, going ahead. Titan is relatively lower leveraged and has a maintained a strong cash balance, which enables it to meet working capital requirements. Despite the continued growth, Titan has managed to remain debt-free considering the nature of its business. Even after the change in gold regulations, the company has very low debt on a net basis. The company has been consistently reporting return ratios in excess of 25-30 % in the last 10 years. Titan has always strived hard to achieve topline growth. To achieve this, it has launched various brands across categories and is working hard towards nurturing these brands. It is also exploring new product categories, which are relatively lower penetrated and striving further to grows Slower growth in H1FY17 is expected to be compensated by higher growth in H2FY17 due to strong festive season sales in Q3FY17 and a weak base Q4FY16 (Due to jewellers strike in March 2016). Titan’s management indicated that the jewellery industry de-grew 30 % in H1FY17 suggesting tough times for the sector. However, Titan’s performance is commendable considering the tough regulatory environment curbing revenue growth for the sector with the management indicting that the company may have gained market share. Also, the government’s decision to enhance the limit for golden harvest scheme to 35 % of company’s networth from the earlier mandated 25 % would assist the company’s revenue growth. The management is continuing with its strategy of aggressive retail expansion and introduction of newer brands at different price points. The company is also looking at having higher share of studded jewellery, which would aid in margin growth in FY18E and FY19E. Titan would be a beneficiary of the shift from unorganised to organised players owing to its strong brand and pan India retail presence. At the current market price of Rs. 360.70, the stock is trading at a PE of 39.63 x FY17E and 32.79 x FY18E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 9.10 in FY17E and Rs. 11.00 in FY18E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also.

KEY FINANCIALSFY16AFY17EFY18EFY19E
SALES ( Crs) 11,264.5011,889.8013,520.9015,360.30
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)705.80804.00978.001,172.40
EPS () 8.009.1011.0013.20
PE (x)41.1036.1029.6024.70
P/BV (x)8.207.406.405.50
EV/EBITDA (x)30.7024.3020.0016.60
ROE (%) 21.40 21.6023.2024.10
ROCE (%)26.9029.6031.7032.80

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*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold  TITAN COMPANY LTD in my any of the portfolios.

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Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible. 


As a Disclosures I Confirm that : 
I confirm that I shall not deal or trade in securities mentioned in this article within thirty days before and five days after the publication of this article. I also confirm that I will not deal or trade directly or indirectly in securities mentioned in this article in a manner contrary to the ideas put forth in the article. I have not received any financial compensation for writing this article.
 

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4 comments :

  1. I love you articles sir. Will read at the end of the day, seems to be a lot of hard work put in on this...... I have a stock called Thangamayil in my portfolio, I bought if for its small Share free float and pocket size offerings. Hope jewellery comes back big time.

    ReplyDelete
  2. i just really love reading your articles seem a lot of hard work you put ..as it is your personal blog. just go ahead as you are going ...keep it up BEST STOCK MARKET TIPS

    ReplyDelete
  3. I always read your blog in the evening.. because it seems really interesting and knowledgable and it keeps me up to date with stock market.. and plz keep giving suggestions like that..
    EQUITY CASH CALLS

    ReplyDelete
  4. hello sir, can we enter at the current price? whats target and whats the holding time for this stock.??

    ReplyDelete

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