Scrip Code: 532443 / CERA

CMP: Rs. 2,532.50 ; Market Cap: Rs. 3,293.74 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 2,780.00 / Rs. 1,709.95

Total Shares: 1,30,05,874 shares; Promoters : 71,20,639 shares –54.75 %; Total Public holding : 58,85,235 shares – 45.25 %; Book Value: Rs. 323.71; Face Value: Rs. 5.00; EPS: Rs. 75.98; Dividend: 180.00 % ; P/E: 33.46 times; Ind. P/E: 35.08; EV/EBITDA: 18.85.

Total Debt: Rs. 35.08 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 3,269.43 Cr.

CERA SANITARYWARE LIMITED: Cera Sanitaryware Limited was incorporated in 1980, and is headquartered in Kadi, India. The company was formerly known as Madhusudan Oils and Fats Limited and changed its name to Cera Sanitaryware Limited in November 2002. Cera Sanitaryware Limited manufactures and sells sanitary ware and faucet ware products in India. The company offers sanitary ware products, including EWC’s, kids range products, wash basins, urinals, cisterns, seat covers, sensors, and bath accessories; special needs products consisting of cranes, shower chairs, wall mounted and U shaped rails, wall mounted inverted rails, and corner and wall mounted grab bars; and faucets, such as fittings, basin mixers, showers, bath tub spouts, flush valves and cocks, angle cocks, taps, and accessories. The company announced its bonus shares last July 2010 in ratio of 1:1. It also provides wellness products comprising steam shower rooms, shower rooms and cubicles, shower partitions, indoor swimming pools, bath tubs, shower panels, and pressure pumps; kitchen sinks and mirrors; and personal care products comprising hand dryers, perfume sprayers with remote control, automatic soap dispensers, and hair dryers, as well as wall and floor tiles. Cera has emerged as the third largest player in the sanitary ware industry in India. The company enjoys 24 % market share in the organised segment. It has installed manufacturing capacity of 2.7 mn pieces p.a. in sanitary ware and 2,500 pieces per day in faucet ware in Kadi (Gujarat). As of May 2016, Cera has 1,000 distributors - dealers, 14,000 retailers and 12 major stock points across India. CERA’s subsidiary includes Madhusudan Industries Ltd; Madhusudan Holdings Ltd; Madhusudan Fiscal Ltd; Vikram Investment Co. Ltd; Cera Foundation; Swadeshi Fan Ind. Ltd. CERA SANITARYWARE is locally compared with Kajaria Ceramics, Grindwell Norton, Acrysil India Ltd, La Opala RG, Asian granite India Ltd, Euro Ceramics, Hindustan Sanitaryware India Ltd, Morganite Crucible India Ltd, Murudeshwar Ceramics, Nitco tiles Ltd, Orient Bell Ltd, Regency Ceramics, Restile Ceramics, Somany Ceramics, Kisan mouldings Ltd, and Globally compared with China Ceramics Co Ltd of China, Ziyang Ceramics of China, Topps Tiles of China, China GengSheng Minerals Inc of China, INTL DE Ceramica Com of USA, EGE Seramik of Turkey, Dynasty Ceramics of Thailand, Ceramica San Lorenzo, CARBO Ceramics Inc of USA, Fairmount Santrol Holdings Inc. of USA, Compagnie De Saint Gobain SA of France, U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc of USA, Arab Ceramics Co of Saudi Arabia, Al Anwar Ceramic Tiles Co of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Ceramics Co of Saudi Arabia, Saudi Vitrified Clay Pipes Company of Saudi Arabia, General Comapany for Ceramic and Procelain Products SAE, Forage Orbit Garant Inc of Canada,Ceramika Nowa Gala Sa of Turkey, Usak Seramik Sanayi As of Turkey, Dvarcioniu Keramika AB of Lithuania, Goh Ban Huat Berhad of Malaysia, Chang Yih Ceramic JSC of Vietnam, Royal Ceramics Lanka Ltd of Sri Lanka, Konoshima Chemical Co Ltd of Japan, Roy Ceramics Se of Germany, Troax Corp Publ AB of Sweden, Expedit AS of Denmark, Exel Composites Oyi of Finland, Royal Ceramic Industry Public Co Ltd of Thailand, CMC Joint Stock Co of Vietnam, Shabir Tiles & Ceramics ltd of Pakistan, Onex Corporaion of Japan, Sapura Industrial Berhad of Malaysia, Nansin Company Ltd of Japan, Masonite International Corp of USA, Owens Corning of USA, Nci Building Systems Inc of New York, Masco Corp of USA.

Investment Rationale:

Cera Sanitaryware incorporated in the year 1998 is a pioneer in the sanitary ware segment in India. Cera Sanitaryware Limited, India’s fastest growing company in the sanitary ware segment in India. It has an extensive product portfolio that includes high end showers, steam cubicles, and whirlpools, besides sanitary-ware and faucets, such extensive product ranges has made CERA the primary choice of customers looking for stylish products in a contemporary lifestyle. It’s also the first sanitary ware company to use natural gas, for its commercial needs, Cera has been on the forefront of launching a new and versatile colour range and introducing the bath suite concept. CERA’s constant innovations have given several path breaking contributions to the industry. Some of its innovations have become benchmarks for the industry- like water-saving twin-flush coupled WCs, 4-litre flush WCs, and one-piece WCs. Advanced technology has been the forte of CERA. Its state-of-the-art manufacturing plant has been following the highest standards of quality with an emphasis on sustainability since its inception in 1980. The total size of the Indian sanitary ware and bathroom fittings industry is at Rs. 9,500 Cr in FY16, of which the sanitary ware accounts for roughly Rs. 3,500 Cr and is growing at an average rate of 20 %. The remaining Rs. 6,000 Cr is attributed to bathroom fittings, also growing at an average rate of 18 %. The outlook for the industry is robust on the back of country’s very low sanitation coverage, housing shortage and potential for the replacement market. The contribution from the replacement is very low at 8 % in comparison to 80 % in the developed economies. In the sanitary ware industry, the organized market is 65 % while the unorganized market is about 35 % and in the bathroom fittings, the organized market share is around 45 % and the unorganized market is about 55 %. According to the report on world health statistic by World Health Organization (WHO), the sanitation coverage in India is very low at 36 %. This in itself shows the growth potential for the industry in a country which has a population of over 121 Cr and is expected to grow to 135 Cr by 2021, as per census 2011. Further, the growth would be boosted by the government initiatives such as affordable housing, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan and development of 100 smart cities. In Union Budget for 2015-16, the finance minister has announced 100 % sanitation by October 2019 with a provisional amount of Rs. 3,625 Cr, including Rs. 1,000 Cr for urban sanitation. It has also allocated Rs. 10,025 Cr for rural housing and Rs. 4,150 Cr for Urban housing with an objective of providing housing for all by 2022. In the recent union cabinet meeting, the government has approved development of 100 smart cities along with the new urban renewal mission with a planned outlay of Rs. 100 lakh Cr. The Indian tile Industry is expected to witness better days over the medium-term. This optimism is based on important realities. Over the last two decades, India’s urban population increased from 21.7 Cr to 37.7 Cr and this is expected to reach 60 Cr, or 40 % of the population by 2031. By then, India is expected to have 68 cities with population of more than one million – driving housing demand. India is one of the few countries with a third-quartile median age of 27 years, which represents a younger, ambitious and forward-looking population. As the internet penetration deepens, consumption is seen to increase. The proportion of people employed in the country's workforce will continue to rise. By 2030, India is expected to constitute 28 % of the world's workforce with the worker-to-dependent ratio expected to be 2.1 (14 in 1990). Besides, steady urbanisation will graduate labour markets from low paying agricultural jobs to better-paying manufacturing and service engagements. India’s sanitaryware and bathroom fittings industry is undergoing a transition phase. The consumers are now moving from low-end basic product to middle and high end premium segments. This is in conjunction with the growing urbanization and ever increasing middle-income segment. As per the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER), the middle-income segment has grown from 1.1 Cr households in 2001-02 to 3.1 Cr household by 2010-2011 and is expected to grow to 5.3 Cr by 2015-16 and 11.4 Cr by 2025-2026. This shift will benefit the industry players in terms of higher margin and ability to pass on the cost increase to the consumers. The recent reduction in interest rates augurs well for the housing sector. Beside, declining commodity prices are expected to reduce inflationary pressure on the Indian economy, creating a foundation for further interest rate reduction. This should improve housing demand. Reduction in international crude prices should optimise the energy bill strengthening business profitability. Cera in the sanitary ware segment has strong positioning and over the years has gradually increased its market share in the sanitary ware from 18 % in FY09 to 23 % in FY15. The company is also growing higher than most of its peers and industry. The company started the faucet business by trading activity and today it has built-up huge capacity to encash the opportunity in the under-penetrated faucet ware market. The revenue contribution from the faucet business has increased from 14 % in FY13 to 17 % in FY17E, with the increasing capacity the contribution is expected to increase further. Recently, the company has also expanded its business activities in the tiles business through contract manufacturing with the unorganized players. The products launched by the company in the tiles business have been widely accepted and as a result, the contribution from the tiles business has also increased from just 2 % in FY13 to 13 % in FY15. The diverse product offering has helped the company to achieve higher revenue growth, even when the economy and the industry were under pressure. Lately, the company is also evaluating opportunities for entering into a joint venture for the manufacturing of sanitary ware and Tiles. Faucet ware industry size at Rs. 6,000 Cr is double the size of sanitary ware, showing huge growth potential going forward. The contribution of the organized market is 45 % and is growing rapidly. The company already supplies to the industry in the mass segment through outsourcing but now the company is targeting the premium segment and in this direction, the company has increased its production capacity by 166 % to 24.3 Cr pcs p.a i.e approx. 6,658 pcs. per day from 91 lakhs pcs p.a i.e 2,500 pcs per day. The plant located at kadi, Gujarat is further expandable to 10,000 pcs per day. Currently, jaguar has dominating in this segment with almost 40 % market share. The company is going aggressively on branding and expects to garner 3 % market share in the near future. Meanwhile, CERA has also expanded the sanitary ware production capacity from 27 lakhs pcs p.a to 30 lakhs pcs p.a in FY15. The company is also planning to increase the sanitary ware capacity to 33 lakhs pcs by FY16E. In the last couple of years, the company has reported healthy growth in its sanitary ware business and has gained market share from 18 % in FY09 to 23 % at the end of FY15. The industry has huge opportunity as the organized sanitary ware market is growing faster than the unorganized market and now account for 65 % of the total industry size of Rs.3,500 Cr. For the additional capacity, for both faucet ware and sanitary ware, the total capex is approx Rs. 100.30 Cr, which would be funded from the amount raised through preferential issue and remaining from internal accruals. Recently, the company has raised Rs. 70.6 Cr by way of preferential allotment of 3,51,000 equity share at Rs. 2,011.5 per shares. The company has been using full utilization of its existing capacity and post expansion, and is expected that the company to make full utilization of its increased capacity in the due course. Company’s Brand loyalty and strategic marketing network have paid dividend to the company in terms of robust revenue growth of 36 % CAGR in the last four years. The company has strong pan India presence with 1400 dealers and 14000 retailers targeting both its retail and institutional customers. And to supplement its network the company also has 20 stock points across the country. The company has also initiated touch and feel experience to its customers by setting up bath studios. In order to target premium and luxury customers, the company has exclusive display centre, cera style studio which are located in the prime locations across the major cities. Cera style gallaries are the display and sales touch points owned and managed by its trading partners. Cera style centres are the display centres targeting smaller trade retail parners. The company has increased its Cera style studios from just one at Ahmedabad in FY06 to ten by the end of FY15. The company is also fast growing its Cera style gallaries and expects to touch 200 gallaries in the near future. With cera style centres, the company is penetrating into the tier 2 cities such as North-East and West Bengal. In South, the company has dominant position in Kerala and is now building up its positioning in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. The Sanitary ware industry is generally growing at average rate of 14 % to 16 %, annually. The FY 2015-16 was exceptionally subdued due to various economic reasons more for the entire realty and construction industry across pan India with growth percentage coming down drastically. Despite this, 'CERA' during FY 2015-16 registered top line growths of around 13.63 % amidst subdued business conditions. The efforts are on not only to sustain CAGR last 3 years but also to improve upon. The industry structure remains unchanged viz. Indian manufacturers in organized and unorganized sectors; International brands with or without manufacturing in India and imports from countries like China. The growth of the Company has been much above the market growth and is largely on account of its continued efforts in leveraging the high brand value and product optimization besides deeper penetration in tier 2 markets. These efforts are further fortified by strong and structured marketing efforts, good product quality and after-sales service, and backed by a very loyal distribution network across India. CERA has been growing despite of the threats like international brands and slowdown in housing construction. The demand in mid-segment housing is less affected and the Company’s ability to pitch in the mid-segment will help maintain the growth rate. The announcement by Central Government about launch of 100 smart cities across India, can give a boost to construction industry and thereby for demand for sanitary ware. Another significant action plan by Central Government, "Swachh Bharat Abhiyan", can also be a booster to sanitary ware in general. Also, the newly introduced real estate regulatory authority bill is likely to help streamline the housing construction activities.

Outlook and Valuation:

Cera Sanitaryware is a complete building solution provider and have raised itself from a provider of single sanitaryware product in the 1980’s to now vast range of product portfolio and today it has become a complete building product solutions provider by offering products like sanitaryware, faucetware, wellness & allied products and tiles. In the sanitaryware segment, the company has strong positioning in the mass segment which accounts of almost 60 % of the organized sanitaryware market. The company has in-house manufacturing facility for sanitaryware and faucetware at Kadi, Gujarat. Launched in 1980, 'CERA' is a pioneer in the Sanitaryware segment in India. The first Sanitaryware Company to use natural gas, 'CERA' has been on the forefront of launching a versatile colour range and introducing the bath suite concept. It also launched innovative designs and water-saving products. In 2011-12, the company ventured into commissioning its state-of-the-art faucet ware manufacturing facility where only quality products, new designs and innovation are the focal points. During last quarter of FY 2012-13, 'CERA' forayed into ceramic, vitrified and digital tiles for floor as well as for walls. Company’s initiative to provide touch and feel experience to its customers through its CERA Style Studios, has paid off well. CERA Style Studios are located in up market locations in Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Kochi, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Gurgaon, Chandigarh, Chennai, Thiruvananthapuram and Kolkata. CERA Style Galleries, display and sales touch points of CERA, owned and managed by its trade partners, are increasing month after month. For smaller trade retail partners, CERA encourages display in the form of CERA Style Centre. This will help further penetrate into smaller towns and outlets, thereby increasing the visibility of brand CERA. CERA also launched CERA Style Studios on Wheels, a novel concept to take CERA products to the doorsteps of key decision makers like architects, developers, etc. The Company also strengthened CERA Care, its after-sales division with induction of technicians for taking care of its services in all key cities of the country. Currently, the facility has an installed capacity to produce 3 million pcs of sanitaryware and 2.34 million pcs of faucetware. The company is also engaged in contract manufacturing for sanitaryware and faucetware and outsourcing activities for wellness & allied products, Vitrified and Ceramic Tiles. Over the years, the company has built-up strong marketing network to promote and sell its products. As on March 2015, it has 1400 dealers and 14000 retailers. All the products of the company are sold under single brand ‘CERA’, and it enjoys strong positioning in the mass segment. It has strong positioning in the southern market, with 40 % of its total revenue coming from south. Over the years, it has gradually increased its market share in the sanitaryware from 18 % in FY09 to 23 % in FY16. The company is also growing higher than most of its peers and industry. The company started the faucet business by trading activity and today it has built-up huge capacity to encash the opportunity in the under-penetrated faucetware market. India’s sanitaryware and bathroom fittings industry is undergoing a transition phase. The consumers are now moving from low-end basic product to middle and high end premium segments. This is in conjunction with the growing urbanization and ever increasing middle-income segment. As per the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER), the middle-income segment has grown from 1.1 Cr households in 2001-02 to 3.1 Cr household by 2010-2011 and is expected to grow to 5.3 Cr by 2015-16 and 11.4 Cr by 2025-2026. This shift will benefit the industry players in terms of higher margin and ability to pass on the cost increase to the consumers. The total size of the Indian sanitaryware and bathroom fittings industry is at Rs. 9,500 Cr in FY15, of which the sanitaryware accounts for roughly Rs. 3,500 Cr and is growing at an average rate of 20 %. The remaining Rs. 6,000 Cr is attributed to bathroom fittings, also growing at an average rate of 18 %. The outlook for the industry is robust on the back of country’s very low sanitation coverage, housing shortage and potential for the replacement market. The contribution from the replacement in this sector in India is very low at 8 % in comparison to 80 % in the developed economies. In the sanitaryware industry, the organized market is 65 % while the unorganized market is about 35 % and in the bathroom fittings, the organized market share is around 45 % and the unorganized market is about 55 %. According to the report on world health statistic by World Health Organization (WHO), the sanitation coverage in India is very low at 36 %. This in itself shows the growth potential for the industry in a country which has a population of over 125 Cr and is expected to grow to 135 Cr by 2021, as per census 2011. Further, the growth would be boosted by the government initiatives such as affordable housing, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan and development of 100 smart cities. In Union Budget for 2015-16, the finance minister has announced 100 % sanitation by October 2019 with a provisional amount of Rs. 3,625 Cr, including Rs. 1,000 Cr for urban sanitation. It has also allocated Rs. 10,025 Cr for rural housing and Rs. 4,150 Cr for Urban housing with an objective of providing housing for all by 2022. In the recent union cabinet meeting, the government has approved development of 100 smart cities along with the new urban renewal mission with a planned outlay of Rs. 1 Trillion. Cera maintains a strong market position in the mass market segment, because of its ‘value for money’ proposition and a wide brand appeal. Currently, the company derives bulk of its sanitary ware revenue from these segments. Competitive intensity is also relatively lower in these segments because of the lower presence of foreign players. Led by various government schemes, such as affordable housing, and the shift in consumer sentiment towards organised players, and is expected this segment to grow at a steady pace. The company did not have a second brand to cater to the premium market, and the mass-market perception associated with the CERA brand limited its ability to compete with the leading domestic and premium brands. Although the segment accounts for only 10 % of the sanitary ware market, it is one of the fastest growing. The company has addressed this concern through its marketing-and-distribution agreement with the Italian company, ECE Banyo, manufacturer of the luxury sanitary ware brand, ISVEA. Cera is currently in the process of a pan-India launch of ISVEA’s products, the company’s ability to gain a substantial market share in this highly competitive segment characterised by the presence of several domestic (HSIL and Parryware) and international players (Kohler, ToTo, Duravit and American Standard) - is a monitorable. Apart from the tie-up, Cera has also consciously taken efforts to premiumise its product portfolio, by gradually launching products with innovative designs and importing high-end products. This has reflected in the steady increase in the company’s realisations of self-manufactured products and share of imports. We believe premiumisation of its product portfolio is a key positive, as it is expected to provide a fillip to revenue and aid margin expansion. The government plans to make the Goods and Service Tax (GST) effective from June 2017. The Ministry of Finance has finalised a four-tier rate structure – 5 %, 12 %, 18 % and 28 %. Mass consumption goods are expected to fall in 5 %, and luxury goods, tobacco, etc. to fall in 28 %, whereas most other goods and services are expected to fall in the 18 % category. Some of the key benefits of GST for building products players are highlighted below: The current effective indirect tax rate for most building product companies is in the range of 22 %-29 %, and it does not allow a set-off of tax paid on services. After GST implementation, the effective tax for these companies is expected to go down to 18 % to 20 %, as the base rate comes down and also as companies will be entitled for set off benefits. This is to be margin accretive for building product players. Currently, building product companies set up additional depots, employ more C&F agents in different states to bypass CST. With GST, it is expected that there will be rationalisation of warehouses and an effective inventory/supply chain management. This is also expected to reduce the logistics cost for companies owing to better turnaround time and consolidation of warehouses. Currently, the unorganised sector accounts for 30 % to 35 % of the industry. The GST is expected to accelerate the shift towards the organised segment, as the law is expected to reduce/eliminate tax sops enjoyed by unorganised players, leading to higher compliance. This will create a level-playing field and benefit organised players such as Cera. The company’s balance sheet quality is robust, driven by an efficient working capital management, low leverage and a healthy cash balance. Working capital days remained at 45-55 days during FY11-16, one of the best in the industry. The efficient working capital management has enabled it to consistently generate positive cash flow from operations and maintain a cash-rich balance sheet. Its leverage declined to 0.1 times in FY16 from 0.3 times in FY11; making Cera almost debt-free. A strong balance sheet provides additional headroom for growth and makes the company less vulnerable to external shocks. While soaring aspirations has been an important ingredient for increasing offtake, the primary trigger has been the significantly enhanced tile availability. This has worked towards making the product more affordable. Hence, what was once considered a rich man's foot-step luxury has now transcended into an Indian's regular wall and flooring solution. While this change remained concentrated in metros and urban India in earlier years, this transformation is currently sweeping Tier II and Tier III towns in India. The Indian tile industry is poised to experience significant growth over the coming year. This optimism stems from the important realities that are expected to catalyse tile demand pan-India. Going ahead, the business landscape appears promising because of passing of GST Bill. OROP; Normal monsoon; a 25 bps cut in interest rates by the RBI are expected to increase disposable income in the hands of the average Indian leading to increased discretionary spending. And this is just the beginning. India's 'Housing for All' programme proposes to build six crore houses by 2022 - four crore of them in rural and two crore in urban India. On financial side, Revenue is estimated to increase at a CAGR of 19.3 % over FY16-19 to Rs. 15.2 bn, driven by the faucet and tiles segments. Tiles segment is expected to grow 30 % over FY16-19E, followed by the faucet (20% CAGR) and the sanitary ware (18 %) segments. Consequently, the share of the sanitary ware segment is expected to decline to 57.9 % in FY19 from 62.3 % in FY14. EBITDA margin is expected to expand 110 bps to 16.5 % over FY16-19, driven by: a higher share of in-house manufacturing facility for tiles; premiumisation of the product portfolio, post-marketing arrangement with ECE Banyo and launch of high-end faucets; lower power and fuel costs, following the installation of solar panels and wind turbines, as well as lower crude oil prices; and growth in realisation, once demand recovers in FY18. Adjusted PAT is expected to grow at a three-year CAGR of 26 %. Sturdy growth is expected to stem from healthy revenue and EBITDA growth. RoCE is expected to improve to 33.6 % in FY19 from 29.1 % in FY16, driven by healthy EBITDA and low leverage. RoE is expected to increase to 24.0 % in FY19 from 21.1 % in FY16, because of strong PAT margin and faster asset turnover. At the current market price of Rs. 2532.50, the stock is trading at a PE of 31.57 x FY17E and 25.29 x FY18E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 80.20 in FY17E and Rs. 100.10 in FY18E. CERA is confident of sustaining its growth in coming years with its business strategies of continuously upgrading product basket, leveraging on strong brand image, optimizing product potential capacity utilization and distribution network with all backed up by well-structured sales & marketing plans.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY16	FY17E	FY18E	FY19E
SALES (₹ Crs)	935.80	1,026.50	1,236.00	1,522.00
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	81.50	104.30	130.10	163.00
EPS (₹)	62.70	80.20	100.10	125.40
PE (x)	38.60	30.20	24.20	19.30
P/BV (x)	7.50	6.20	5.10	4.20
EV/EBITDA (x)	21.40	17.80	14.50	11.90
ROE (%)	21.10	22.50	23.20	24.00
ROCE (%)	29.10	31.60	33.00	33.60

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) -

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*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold CERA SANITARYWARE Ltd in my investment portfolio.

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This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.