ADITYA BIRLA NUVO LTD : HUGE VALUE UNLOCKING OPPOURTUNITY !!!

Scrip Code: 500303 / ABIRLANUVO

CMP:  Rs. 1,735.70; Market Cap: Rs. 22,587.33 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 1916.15 / Rs. 1032.25 ; Total Shares: 13,01,33,885 shares; Promoters : 7,44,44,697 shares – 57.21 %; Total Public holding : 5,56,89,188 shares – 42.79 %; Book Value: Rs. 859.77; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 96.82; Dividend: 70.00 % ; P/E: 17.92 times; Ind. P/E: 31.69; EV/EBITDA: 7.28.

Total Debt: 18,429.86 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 40,350.65 Cr.

ADITYA BIRLA NUVO LIMITED: The Company was incorporated in 1956 and was earlier known as Indian Rayon Corporation Limited and changed its name to Indian Rayon and Industries Ltd in 1987. The company in the year 2005 again changed its name to Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd. Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited is a large diversified conglomerate, which engages into apparel, viscose filament yarn, carbon black, branded garments, textiles, agri business activities, life insurance business, IT solutions & telecom business. Its Apparel business consists of Madura Fashion & Lifestyle Brands Division; its brands are Louis Philippe, Van Heusen, Allen Solly, Peter England, Espirit, People, The Collective- A international retailing brand, Peter England Menswear Brands Division, Peter England Fashions & Retail, Madura Garments Lifestyle Retail Co. Ltd., and Madura Garments Exports Ltd. Its Textiles business consists of Jaya Shree Textiles. Its Agri Business manufactures and markets urea, agricultural seeds and agrochemicals under the brand name of Indo Gulf Fertilisers, Birla Shaktiman Urea Gold, Birla Shaktiman Urea KrishiDev neem coated, traded fertilizers, Birla Shaktiman seeds - mainly paddy and wheat, and Birla Shaktiman pesticides. Its Insulators business consists of Aditya Birla Insulators. Its Viscose Filament Yarn (VFY) unit, consist of Indian Rayon and Ray One, producer of viscose filament yarn in India. Company’s Carbon Black business consists of Hi-Tech Carbon. Company’s IT services business consists of Aditya Birla Minacs IT Services Ltd., which offers clients domain-centred solutions for the financial supply chain, enterprise solutions and business assurance. Its Life Insurance business consists of Birla Sun Life Insurance Company Limited (BSLI), which offers insurance-related wealth accumulation products and services for individuals, groups and NRIs and is a 74:26 joint venture between ABNUVO & Sun Life Financial, Canada. ABNUVO’s Asset Management consists of Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Limited (BSLAMC), and is a 50:50 joint venture between the ABNUVO and Sun Life Financial Services of Canada, which provides ethical, innovative, research and analysis based investments and wealth management services. & also operates as the investment manager of Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund. ABNUVO also has NBFC named Aditya Birla Finance Ltd- a 100% subsidiary of ABNUVO. Company also includes Other Financial Services namely ADITYA BIRLA MONEY which provides money management & brokerage services to domestic & international clients, Aditya Birla Capital Advisory Private Ltd which is into Private Equity, Aditya Birla Money Mart Limited which is into Wealth Management, Aditya  Birla Insurance Brokers Limited which is into General Insurance Advisory. ABNUVO is the major shareholder with 23.29 % in Telecom company - Idea Cellular Limited (IDEA), which is a major GSM mobile service operator in India. ADITYA BIRLA NUVO is locally compared with Bajaj Finserv Ltd, Piramal Enterprises and Globally compared with Berkshire Hathaway of USA, Agricultural Bank of China of China, Royal Dutch Shell of USA, HSBC Holdings of Hong Kong, Exxon Mobile Corporation of USA, General Electric Company of USA, JPMorgan Chase & Co of USA, China Construction Bank of China, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China of China, MNRB Holdings Berhad of Malaysia, Great Eastern Holdings Ltd of Singapore, Lifenet Insurance Company of Japan, PetroChina Company Ltd of China.

Investment Rationale:

Aditya Birla Nuvo is a US$4 billion conglomerate operating in the services and manufacturing sectors, where it commands a leadership position. Its service sector businesses include Financial Services - Life Insurance, Asset Management, NBFC, Private Equity, Broking, Wealth Management and general insurance advisory, Fashion & Lifestyle - Branded apparels & Textiles and Telecom. Its manufacturing businesses comprise the Agri, Rayon and Insulators Businesses. Aditya Birla Nuvo is part of the Aditya Birla Group, a US$40 billion Indian multinational. The Group operates in 36 countries across the globe and is anchored by an extraordinary force of about 120,000 employees belonging to 42 nationalities and derives more than 50 per cent of its revenue from its overseas operations. The company sells two branded apparels every second from its Fashion & Lifestyle Business & is one of the largest branded apparel players in India. Louis Philippe, Allen Solly and Van Heusen are the prime and amongst famous brands & continue to be the best selling brands in India. It opened one store per day & now had expanded its retail presence to 1,750 exclusive brand outlets-stores, spanning nationwide across 4.3 million square feet. Companies has its insurance business and the Indian Life insurance industry currently comprises 23 life insurers and one public sector life insurer – LIC. The top 7 out of 23 private players contributed to 74 % of the private sector’s total new business premium in 2013-14. In 2013-14, the industry’s new business premium was up by 3 % to Rs. 59,041 Crore. LIC grew by 8 % while private players de-grew by 5 %. Consequently, the share of private players in the total pie declined from 40 % to 37 %. In terms of Individual Life new business, private life insurers as well as LIC de-grew by 3 % (Source: IRDA). Given the macro-economic environment and product transition to meet regulatory guidelines, sales growth across the industry was impacted. Following major regulatory changes in 2009, there has been a perceptible slowdown in the industry. However, this has given an opportunity to existing insurance players to review their operating models to drive towards higher efficiencies and focus on more balanced growth objectives. ABNUVO has its Retail Segment, and operates in the organised retailing market; clothing and fashion retailing. These are the largest and the most penetrated segment. The organised apparel market is growing at a faster pace than the overall apparel retail market driven by multiple factors including significant growth in discretionary income and changing lifestyles. Easy availability of credit and use of ‘Plastic Money’ have contributed to a strong and growing consumer culture in India. Expansion in the size of the upper middle class and higher advertisement outlays have led to high brand consciousness- awareness and encouraged more spending on luxury products. Within the organized apparel market, men’s category is the largest segment with more than 50 % share. Menswear will continue to dominate the market in the years to come, however, the women’s wear and kids wear are expected to grow faster and enhance their share in the overall expanding pie. In fiscal 2013-14, persistently high inflation coupled with a slowdown in the economy had a bearing on the clothing and fashion retailing segment too due to subdued consumer discretionary spending, which is now changing into positive and will be good for retail arm of ABNUVO. The Company has its Telecom business and the mobile telecommunications industry in India is divided into 22 Service Areas – 3 metro Service Areas, and 19 other Service Areas. As of March 31, 2014, India had a total reported subscriber base of 904.5 million and a VLR (active) subscriber base of 790.9 million. As of March 31, 2014, mobile Tele-density was at 72.9 % based on reported subscriber and 63.8 % based on VLR subscribers. Indian Mobile Subscriber stats as on December 2014 were 94.4 Cr Total with 83.3 Cr Active subscribers, 14.3 Cr MNP Request and Broadband subscribers of 8.57 Cr. In fiscal 2013-14, the gross revenue of the Indian wireless sector grew year-on-year by 10% to Rs. 1,65,100 Cr (US$ 28 billion). The top three cellular operators in India - Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular, garnered 70 % revenue market share up from 68 % a year ago. The competitive intensity in the Telecomm industry has decreased since the quashing of the licenses and the associated spectrum by the Supreme Court of India in February 2012. The Small operators are forced to exit or reduce their presence in India. The number of licensees has therefore decreased to 6-10 mobile operators per Service Area. In addition, increasing losses have forced operators to start rationalizing tariffs to protect their investments. As a result, realizations have started to improve. And Idea the Telecom arm of ABNUVO has good footing in this sector with good sales promotion and better tariff to offer. This is surely a plus point for ABNUVO. The company’s Financial Services is Gaining its market share in the Life Insurance business through good quality sales, driven by an efficient distribution network with acceptable expense levels, and with Growing profitable assets while maintaining fund performance in the Asset Management business. The company is expanding its book size in the NBFC business, while keeping risk under control. Company has managed to capture the growing Housing Finance business and has also forayed into the Health Insurance business; this will drive the profitable growth in other businesses. The Company has been successful in Capitalising on Brand !DEA, which has strong cash flows and expanding spectrum profile & infrastructure in the Telecom business will help further to capture opportunities in the voice & the emerging wireless broadband business segments. Leveraging brand leadership of Company’s Fashion & Lifestyle by scaling up retail space & enriching product portfolio in Branded Apparels business will be added advantage, It has Expanded its linen yarn capacity to tap sector growth & is now focusing on high margin linen fabric retail in Textiles. Capturing such growth sectors gives immense opportunities and will improve margins in the Manufacturing businesses.

Outlook and Valuation:

Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd (ABNL), a US$ 4 billion diversified conglomerate by revenue size and is a part of Aditya Birla Group, a US$ 40 billion Indian business house. Aditya Birla Nuvo Limited has an interesting mix of value-creating businesses that represent domestic consumption sector like telecom, fashion and garments, import substitution like fertiliser, viscose fibre yarn and financial services like insurance, NBFC lending, asset management among several others. These business lines give ABNUVO a unique competitive advantage in allocating funds across varied businesses and lower cost of capital. It can finance longer gestation businesses and withstand short-term earnings volatility while keeping in sight long-term goals and value creation. ABNUVO was predominantly a manufacturing house till a few years ago but now it’s a huge diversified conglomerate. It has embarked on a programme to build a new economy services sector business backed by cash flows from the manufacturing business and captured that transition successfully. During FY05-13, the share of manufacturing in revenue dropped from 67 % to 28 %. Services and consumption revenues now constitute the bigger part and reflect future opportunities. The company has painstakingly gained leadership position across business lines and has widened the moat on the back of disciplined execution. These key milestones achieved by the company have defined the entrepreneurial spirit of the company and laid the foundation for robust growth in future. ABNUVO has successfully built a pan-India telecommunications powerhouse, “Idea Cellular” and this telecom business has crossed the regulatory minefield and increased its market share to the current 16 % and is considered amongst top 3 in India, while competition intensity has reduced considerably. The company is the sole investment vehicle of the Aditya Birla group in telecom sector and has 23.30 % investment in Idea Cellular. The sector was marked with high capital investments of around Rs. 9,000 crore by ABNUVO and it gave poor returns. However, with the reduction in competitive intensity the return on capital employed (RoCE) has improved for the company and it’s now one of the successful feathers in the wings of the company. The ABNUVO has built a high-growth fashion and branded garment business, Madura Lifestyle that generates RoCE in excess of 20 % a year and is leader in its sector. This business was a loss-making acquisition for a long time, but with its unique operating structure and stable earnings of the group has led to business creation over the last eight years, while most competitors have floundered in the downturn. Recently, Allen Solly, the premium Readymade brand from Madura Garments citied to set a target of a turnover of Rs. 1,000 Cr in FY16 and expects to touch Rs. 800 Cr in sales this fiscal and Rs. 1000 Cr in the next. The Allen Solly brand has been growing at 34 % CAGR for the last three years and expects to maintain that. Last fiscal its revenue stood at Rs. 600 Cr. Mens wear enjoys a lion's share of the Allen Solly revenue with womens apparel constitutiong only 18 % & childrens wear 7 % & exports around 5 % mainly to SAARC countries & West Asia. Allen Solly brand also has footwear, handbags and accessories which contributes around 5 % of the sales. Allen Solly has a 10 year licencing agreement for Wimbledon merchandise through Solly to sell mens wear. Also, ABNUVO has built insurance business with 8 % of market share and in asset management, it has 9.4 % market share, this business is a JV and is among the top 5 players in terms of market share and profitability. It is also one of the prime candidates among 26 applicants for new banking licences to be issued by the Reserve Bank. ABNUVO also has presence in retail broking, wealth management, distribution of financial products and general insurance advisory and has forayed into private equity as well. While ABNUVO transformed its portfolio and grew new businesses, its market cap has grown only marginally. Shareholders have for long complained about lack of focus, low RoE-RoCE generated by the operating businesses and investment structures with long payoffs. But these all is changing & Companies efforts are being paid off. During 2007-2013, ABNUVO seeded new businesses. Its key businesses are now attaining critical mass within their industry segments. Now it is positioned to deploy sizeable capital and realise attractive returns. The company has switched from investment mode to harvest mode now, and has a three-pronged strategy to achieve this. The first part is to consolidate segment leadership with bolt-on acquisitions. In 2012, ABNUVO acquired the retail format business of Pantaloon for Rs 1,200 crore, employing its management bandwidth to harness synergy and turn around this business. This creates a combined fashion enterprise of about Rs 4,000 crore (sales) with revenue growing in excess of 15 % a year, synergies of scale and a tight control over working capital. Given that most competitors operate in niches or lack the financial capability to drive consolidation in the industry, the company is well placed to lead the rapid transition from unorganised to organised markets. It is also eagerly waiting for policy guidelines for the fertiliser business and is geared up to make significant investments in this business, which has a good RoCE. Second, ABNUVO is realigning its business portfolio. It has divested the low-margin carbon black business and redeployed capital in the NBFC lending business, which is generating higher RoCE over an economic cycle. It has also marked out the Rs. 2,400-crore IT-ITES business, which generates a RoCE of less than 9 %, for divestment. This will release capital of Rs. 2,000 crore that can be deployed in other businesses. The third part of the strategy relates to “Value Unlocking”. ABNUVO has considerable experience in financial services through its activities in NBFC lending, life insurance and asset management. With its impeccable track record, the group was always a strong contender for a banking licence. If that happens, the financial services businesses will be spun off into a separate structure, thereby unlocking the value of the investments and reducing the holding company discount attributed to the listed company. ABNUVO’s Sales, profit after tax and book value have grown at a CAGR 30 % over the past eight years. The company has achieved this with minimal dilution of equity. It generated cumulative operating cash flow of over Rs. 15,000 crore, which has been deployed in various growth businesses as well as to reduce debt. Overall, the total debt level is close to 1.65X, much less if we remove the leverage by NBFC. Most of the new businesses have attained a reasonable size and market leadership in their respective industry. There could be a significant improvement in consolidated RoCE from the current 11 % for the next three years. With Superior RoCE in various businesses will benefit the company and could trigger re-rating for the company. At the current market price of Rs. 1735.70, the stock is trading at a PE of 18.37 x FY15E and 16.83 x FY15E respectively. It can post EPS of Rs. 94.46 for FY15E & of Rs. 103.08 for FY16E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years & will keep its growth story intact for the coming quarters also.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY13A	FY14A	FY15E	FY16E
SALES (₹ Crs)	25,490.20	25,893.39	27,964.86	29,922.40
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	1,058.89	1,142.88	1,228.79	1,340.90
EPS (₹)	88.09	87.86	94.46	103.08
PE (x)	17.73	17.78	16.54	15.15
P/BV (x)	2.05	1.82	1.63	1.46
EV/EBITDA (x)	11.05	10.84	10.31	9.87
ROE (%)	12.92	10.92	10.39	10.10
ROCE (%)	21.54	22.10	22.14	22.12

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Disclaimer: 

This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.

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ULTRATECH CEMENTS LTD : ACCUMULATE AT EVERY LEVELS !!!

Scrip Code: 532538 / ULTRACEMCO

CMP:  Rs. 1705.70; Accumulate at every levels.
Short Term Target : Rs. 1790; Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 1875; STOP LOSS – Rs. 1569.24; Market Cap: Rs. 46,775.40 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 2069.05 / Rs. 1402.35

Total Shares: 27,42,29,957 shares; Promoters : 16,98,87,299 shares –61.95 %; Total Public holding : 10,43,42,658 shares – 38.05 %; Book Value: Rs. 545.54; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 74.12; Dividend: 90.00 % ; P/E: 23.01 times; Ind. P/E: 14.82; EV/EBITDA: 12.12.

Total Debt: 4,462.68 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 52,981.91 Cr.

ULTRATECH CEMENT LIMITED: ULTRACEMCO was incorporated in 2000 and is based in Mumbai, India. It was formerly known as Ultra Tech Cemco Limited and changed its name to ULTRATECH CEMENT Ltd on October 2004. It’s a subsidiary of Grasim Industries Ltd from Aditya Birla Group. The Company is engaged in the business of cement and cement related products. It manufactures and markets Ordinary Portland Cement, Portland Blast Furnace Slag Cement and Portland Pozzalana Cement. UltraTech Cement Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the manufacture and sale of cement in India and internationally. Its products include ready mix concrete; building products, including waterproofing solutions, polymer modified mortar, lightweight autoclaved aerated concrete blocks, thin layer jointing mortar, and ready mix plaster; and white cement. The Company also manufactures ready mix concrete (RMC). UltraTech Cement is an exporter of cement clinker. The Company has an annual capacity of 23.1 million tons. The Company has 11 integrated plants, one white cement plant, one clinkerisation plant in the United Arab Emirates, 15 grinding units - 11 in India, two in the United Arab Emirates, one in Bahrain and Bangladesh each and five terminals - four in India and one in Sri Lanka. In the 2011, its wholly owned subsidiary, UltraTech Cement Middle East Investments Limited (UCMEIL) acquired ETA Star Cement together with its operations in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Bangladesh and acquired management control. On July 1, 2010, Samruddhi Cement Limited (Samruddhi) amalgamated with the Company.  The Company's subsidiaries include Dakshin Cement Limited, UltraTech Cement Lanka (Pvt.) Ltd. and UltraTech Cement Middle East Investments Limited. In India the company has 11 Integrated Plants, 11 Grinding Units, 5 Bulk Terminals, 4 Jetties. It has only 1 bulk terminal at Sri Lanka. In UAE, company has 2 Grinding Units, 1 Clinker production, 1 star cement head office. UltraTech has 1 Grinding unit each at Bahrain and Bangladesh. The company is compared to Ambuja Cements Ltd, ACC Limited, Shree Cement Ltd, Grasim Ind Ltd and Rain Commodities Limited domestically and Globally compared with Holcim of Germany, Ashaka Cement Plc of UAE, Bamburi Cement of UAE, Oman Cement Company of UAE, Kuwait Cement Company of UAE, Qatar National Cement Company of UAE, Asia Cement Corp of China, Chia Hsin Cement Corp of China, Krosaki Harima Corp of Tokyo, Ssangyong Cement Co of Japan, Taiwan Cement Corp of Taiwan, West China Cement of Hong Kong, Lafarge Cement of Germany, Vulcan materials Co of USA, US Concrete Inc of USA, United States lime & Minerals of USA, Grupo Argos S.A of USA, Cemex Latam Holdings S.A of USA .

Investment Rationale:

UltraTech’s inception can be traced back to the mid-1980s with the establishment of Grasim’s first cement plant at Jawad in Madhya Pradesh. In 2001, with the objective of increasing its reach, Grasim acquired a stake in L&T Cement Ltd. The stake was further increased to a majority stake in 2003 thereby giving Grasim a pan-India presence and an increased market share. In 2004, the demerger of L&T’s cement business was completed and Grasim acquired a controlling stake in L&T Cement Ltd and the name was subsequently changed to UltraTech cement. The cement business of Grasim was demerged and vested in Samruddhi Cement Limited in May 2010, with Samruddhi Cement Limited consequently being amalgamated with UltraTech Cement Limited in July 2010. UltraTech Cement now is a subsidiary of Grasim, a part of the Aditya Birla Group. Post-merger of Grasim’s cement business, it is the largest cement company in India with a total cement capacity of 61.5mt (by 1QFY16) with a pan-India presence. It is the largest exporters of cement and clinker from India. Post-merger, it would be the largest cement company in India and 10th largest in the world. UltraTech has a potential to increase without incurring major capex by increasing utilization and blending, along with locational advantage, gives it the flexibility to either export or sell in the domestic market. Company’s allied businesses of white cement and RMC has lender stability to company’s overall performance. UltraTech’s management expects long-term cement demand to grow around 8 % while in the near term it could be challenging. In Jul’13 it commissioned a 3.3m-ton clinker plant in Karnataka, adding to its earlier commissioning in Mar’13 of similar capacity in Chhattisgarh. In Oct’13 it commissioned a 1.6m-ton grinding unit in Jharsuguda, Orissa, adding to its earlier commissioning of similar capacity in Hotgi, Maharashtra. The balance five associated grinding units will be set up in 4QFY14 and FY15. During 2Q, Ultratech acquired JaiPrakash Associates’ 4.8m-ton unit in Gujarat, lifting its capacity to 59m tons, while ongoing expansions would further that to 70m tons by Mar’15. The transaction was at an Enterprise Value of Rs. 3,800 Cr (US$125 a ton) and is expected to be completed only by 1QFY15 given multiple approvals required. Looking at the current quarterly results which showed high operating leverage, especially post commissioning of new capacities in 1QFY14, could result in volatile earnings. Post weak pricing environment during monsoon, cement prices and demand are expected to pick-up post monsoon. Structural increase in cost base (both capex and opex) would necessitate into higher cement prices. Revival in cement demand would be key catalyst for the stock performance.

Outlook and Valuation:

UltraTech is the 10th largest cement manufacturer in the world making it a significant global player. It has grinding units, jetties, bulk terminals and integrated plants all across the world. UltraTech Cement is the country’s largest cement and clinker exporter, catering to export markets in countries across the Indian Ocean, Africa, Europe and the Middle East. Such diverse presence across the countries has helped UltraTech to leverage economies of scale and enable it to become a name to reckon within the international market. UltraTech reported its Q3, and reported an average realization of Rs. 4,650 a ton down by 2 % yoy. At 10.3m tons, volumes of grey and white cement, clinker, wall putty rose by 1 % yoy and 8 % on qoq. The Grey cement sales were up 0.6 % yoy and 8 % qoq, those of white cement including wall putty were up 10 % yoy. RMC revenue was at Rs. 450 Cr and that of white cement and wall putty it was Rs. 420 CR. UltraTech reported its EBITDA/ton, at Rs. 745, despite its lower-than-expected realisations. The benefit of lower coal prices (net of rupee devaluation) and optimisation of the fuel mix led to an 8 % yoy dip in power & fuel costs a ton. Freight inched up 4 % yoy chiefly due to a hike in diesel prices and a rise in freight charges. Higher other income, lower interest, depreciation and tax rate of 27 % led to better PAT. The outlook on UltraTech continuous to remain challenging, with demand growth in FY14 is likely to be around 5 %, though over the long run it is likely to be over 8 %. The key value drivers could be housing demand and infrastructure spending. UltraTech has commissioned 25 MW thermal power plants in Andra Pradesh. Overall, the company is investing around Rs. 13,700 Cr in 12.7mt capacities, CPP, marketing and logistic infrastructure, modernization/ up-gradation and in RMC business. The clinkerization plant of 3.3MT in Karnataka has been commissioned in 2QFY14, followed up with 1.6mt grinding unit at Orissa. Further, the company’s planned capacity of 2.9mt at Rajasthan plant including 2 split grinding units with capex of Rs. 2,100 Cr would commission by Mar-15, and this would take total capacity in India to 68mt. On Consolidation of Jaypee's Gujarat plant, UltraTech’s current valuations largely factors in for potential recovery in FY15, benefit of which would be diluted due to initial impact of Jaypee's Gujarat plant acquisition by 1HFY15. At the current price of Rs. 1705.70, the stock is trading at a P/E of 24.05 x on FY14E and 18 x on FY15 estimates. UltraTech could report and EPS of Rs. 70.90 for FY14E and Rs. 94.80 for FY15E. Ultratech Cements has good potential for upside and can touch price of Rs. 2092, One can continue to ACCUMULATE the stock and would advise investors to use declines in the stock to buy with a long term view. One can buy ULTRATECH with a target price of Rs. 1875.00 for Medium to Long term investment and for the SHORT TERM PLAYERS it should be Rs. 1790.00.

KEY FINANCIALS	FY13	FY14E	FY15E	FY16E
SALES (₹ Crs)	20,017.90	20,070.00	23,030.00	26,390.00
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	2,655.40	1,940.00	2,600.00	3,130.00
EPS (₹)	96.80	70.90	94.80	114.10
PE (x)	17.80	24.30	18.10	15.10
P/BV (x)	3.10	2.80	2.50	2.20
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.70	12.70	10.10	8.30
ROE (%)	18.90	12.10	14.50	15.30
ROCE (%)	21.40	14.20	16.80	18.70

I would buy ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD for the short term would be Rs. 1790 and for the Medium to Long term for target of Rs. 1875. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or ₹ 1569.24 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

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GRASIM IND : LEADER IN VSF & CEMENT SECTOR !!!

Scrip Code: 500300 / GRASIM

CMP:  Rs. 2504.85; Accumulate at Rs. 2480 - Rs. 2505 current levels.
Short Term Target : Rs. 2800; Medium to Long term Target: Rs. 3060; STOP LOSS – Rs. 2281.00; Market Cap: Rs. 22,992.79 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 3510.00 / Rs. 2105.65.

Total Shares: 9,17,93,094 shares; Promoters : 2,34,28,918 shares –25.52 %; Total Public holding : 6,83,64,176 shares – 74.48 %; Book Value: Rs. 1102.68; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 128.46; Dividend: 225.00 % ; P/E: 19.49 times; Ind. P/E: 13.86; EV/EBITDA: 4.93.

Total Debt: 8,427.34 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 31,192.68 Cr.

GRASIM INDUSTRIES: GRASIM IND was incorporated in 1947 and is based in Gwalior, Madhya Pradesh, India. The company was earlier known as Gwalior Rayond Silk Mfg (Wvg). Co. Ltd and changed its name to Grasim Industries on 22 July 1986. Grasim Industries is a flagship company of Aditya Birla Group. Grasim Industries Limited engages in the manufacturing and sale of Viscose Staple Fibre (VSF), cement, chemicals, and textiles worldwide. The company’s products include grey cement, white cement, chemicals, sponge iron, and textiles. The company’s VSF is a biodegradable fibre used in apparels, home textiles, dress material, knitted wear, and non-woven applications; and cement products comprise grey and white cement, and ready mix concrete. The company’s chemical products consist of rayon grade caustic soda; stable bleaching powder used in water purification, sanitation, and as a bleaching agent; poly aluminum chloride used in water treatment, paper sizing, and effluent treatment; and chloro sulphonic acid used in vinyl sulphate, the raw material for dyes and intermediates, saccharin, drugs, and pharmaceuticals. The company’s textile products include fabrics, synthetic yarns, worsted dyed yarn spun, and branded suiting under the brand names Grasim and Graviera. Through its subsidiary, Grasim Industries Limited sells its products through a network of 50 showrooms, as well as through 200 wholesalers and 25,000 multi-brand outlets. In August 2011 Grasim Industries acquired Aditya Birla Power Ventures Ltd and on March 2012 it acquired 33.33 % interest in Aditya Group AB, Sweden. Grasim industries is locally compared with ACC, Jaiprakash Associates ltd, Ultratech Cement ltd, Century Textiles and Industries ltd and globally compared with Lafarge Cement Zambia PLC, Oman Cement Company, Bamburi Cement, Holcim Liban, Kuwait Cement Company

Investment Rationale:

Grasim Industries is India’s one the best and biggest VSF & Cement Company. Phase I of the Harihar captive Power Plant of 20 MW, Karnataka, and expansion of 18,250 tons per annum was commissioned in Sep’12; phase II of similar capacity in May’13. The Greenfield project at Vilayat, Gujarat, (120,000 tons) will be commissioned in 3QFY14 in a phased manner. A major revamp of the Nagda plant has begun, to be completed in phases over the next two years. The fresh capacities and upcoming projects would support strong volume growth, starting 2HFY14. Company has commissioned 3.3MT clinkerisation plant in Karnataka. It had already commissioned clinker unit of 3.3MT at Chattisgarh and a grinding unit of 1.55MT at Hothi, Maharashtra during Q4FY13. Cement grinding capacity will be operational in phases in line with clinker production. Company has further sanctioned a capex of Rs 21 bn towards setting up of grinding units, modernization and RMC plants across the country. Company expects volume increase to reflect from H2FY14 from the recently commissioned capacities. Looking at the capacity expansion underway in both cement as well as the VSF segment, a boost in revenue may be seen from volumes. The cement segment of Grasim is through Ultratech where Grasim hold 60.3 % stake. The capacity in Ultratech is seen to grow from 52.5 Million Tonnes Per Annum to 54.5 MTPA during June 2013 quarter while 10 MTPA capacity expansions are underway. The muted demand and realisation in Cement is likely to get a boost once the monsoon season gets over. The global industry scenario seems to be improving. The demand supply imbalance in China and high cotton inventory continued to impact VSF realisation with sharp decline in May 2013 but stabilisation was seen in July onwards. With the commissioning of Harihar Expansion the production was up by 5 % on year on year basis. The Kharach Unit operated at low capacity for 45 days due to repairs of water canal supplying canal by state government but with the new reservoir at Nagda ensured no loss of production. Due to depreciation of Rupee the realisation remained under pressure in line with the global trend.

Outlook and Valuation:

Grasim Industries is well placed to take advantage of capacity expansion in both its segments. It is expected that government may increase spending before election which will in tuen boost the demand from rural India. The water scarcity problems that had hit the demands in Karnataka and Maharashtra are expected to get resolved. The subdued stock prices here offers a good opportunity for the investors to enter the stock and given the likely recovery in the cement business and with improving balance sheet the stock somewhat provides a defensive opportunity in this volatile markets. The 1QFY14 VSF volumes went up 0.7 % YoY, the realisations was at Rs. 126/kg which saw a dip of 8.3 % YoY. Realisations were hit by a demand-supply imbalance in China and depressed cotton prices due to huge cotton inventories. Despite the Kharach unit operating at low capacity for 45 days due to water supply issues, production rose 5 % YoY. PAT slid 17 % YoY but was higher than expected due to a lower tax charge of 6.6 % of PBT. Grasim expects prices in the near term to be influenced by the trend in cotton prices and recovery in the global economy mainly from China and US. The long-term outlook is bright on a rising population, developing-markets consumption and a preference for comfort fabric leading to a rise in demand for quality cellulosic fibre. Management expects range-bound VSF prices and margins in the near term. Expect profitability in the rest of FY14 to be better, led by expansion at Harihar, Vilayat, and a marginal recovery in VSF prices. At current price of Rs. 2504.85, the stock is trading at 21.97 x P/E for FY14E and company could report an  EPS of Rs. 114 for FY14E and Rs. 135 for FY15 estimates. One can buy GRASIM IND Limited with a target price of Rs. 3060.00 for Medium to Long term investment. And for the shorter term the target could be Rs. 2800

SOTP Valuation :-

Business Division	Value Per Share (in. ₹ )
VSF Division	374.15
Value of Chemical Division	108.04
Less :NET DEBT (standalone)	(173.76)
TOTAL	308.43
60.3 % in Ultratech @20% holding disc.	2534.34
Investments @20% holding disc.	216.56
TOTAL VALUE PER SHARE	3059.33

KEY FINANCIALS	FY12	FY13	FY14E	FY15E
SALES (₹ Crs)	4,876.30	5,181.40	5,546.00	6,635.80
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)	1,177.60	1,021.60	1050.60	1,234.80
EPS (₹)	128.00	111.00	114.00	135.00
PE (x)	19.90	22.90	22.30	19.00
P/BV (x)	2.60	2.30	2.10	2.00
EV/EBITDA (x)	18.70	22.70	22.20	15.90
ROE (%)	13.70	12.80	10.00	10.80
ROCE (%)	10.60	7.80	6.50	8.10

I would buy GRASIM INDUSTRIES with a price target of ₹ 3060 for Medium to Long term target, for Short term target could be Rs. 2800. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or ₹ 2281.00 on every purchase. (Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) - Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do hold GRASIM INDUSTRIES LTD in my investment portfolio. 

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