Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd : Best AGRI Sector BUY.BUDGET STOCK

Scrip Code: 500219 / JISLJALEQS

CMP:  Rs. 207.75; Buy at Rs. 200 - 206 levels.
Short term Target: Rs. 230.00
Best buy : At Rs. 180 - Rs. 195 , LT - Rs. 350. Market Cap: Rs. 7,921.3 cr.
52 Week High/Low: Rs. 258.5 / Rs. 157

Total Shares: 38,11,86,460 shares; Promoters : 11,72,43,245 shs – 30.76 %; Total Public holding : 26,15,17,545 shs – 68.61 %;

Book Value: Rs. 35.18; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 7.95; Div: 45 %.

P/E: 26.14 times; Ind P/E: 29.62; EV/EBITDA: 14.79
Total Debt: Rs. 8,942.25 cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 48,656.54 cr

Jain Irrigation Ltd has multi product industrial profile & manufacturers Drip and Sprinkler Irrigation Systems and Components; PVC, Polyethylene (HDPE, MDPE) & Polypropylene Piping Systems; Plastic Sheets (PVC & PC sheets); Dehydrated Onions and Vegetables; Processed Fruits; Tissue Culture, Hybrid & Grafted Plants; Greenhouses, Poly and Shade Houses; Bio-fertilizers; Solar Water Heating Systems and Solar Photovoltaic Appliances (Solar lighting systems) and Bio- energy sources. Company renders consultancy for complete or partial project planning and implementation e.g. Watershed or Wasteland and / or Crop Selection and Rotation.

About Company - It is the market leader in micro irrigation systems (MIS) in India with over 50 % market share. Having been present in this segment for more than 15 years, there is very strong association of the company with MIS in rural India. Its dealer and sales network is also significantly larger than any of its competitors. As a result, Jain Irrigation is expected to retain its market leadership in the future. MIS alone contributes to more than 50% of its revenues and 70% of EBITDA. Due to its large subsidy business, management of working capital cycle has been a key concern for Jain Irrigation and is a risk to its growth. However, the company has now started factoring its receivables, which should help keep working capital cycle in check. JISL is the biggest player and controls over 1/3rd of the market in drip irrigation, second is Netafim from Israel, Finolex Plasson, Premier Irrigation Adritec.

Future scope of business -  So far only about 4.5 mn hectares (ha) has been brought under MIS compared to government target of 18 mn ha by FY12 and addressable area of 70 mn ha. The government subsidies a minimum of 50% of cost of installation and budget allocation to MIS has been in increasing trends. In FY11, central budget allocation was more than doubled to Rs.1000 cr and recently it was accorded “National Mission” status, which assures funding under the government’s 5-year plan. Government funding for MIS is only likely to go up - MIS is a relatively low hanging fruit for the government in its effort to improve farmland productivity. The MIS market in India is at Rs. 2700 - Rs. 3000 cr, 3/4th of which is for drip irrigation which helps to save water & fertilizer. Agriculture consumes 80 % of water in the country & it makes sense to use drip & sprinkler irrigation systems. In February 9th M&M entered into micro irrigation sector by acquiring 38 % stake in 30 year old Nashik based company EPC for around Rs. 43 crore, M&M will give an open offer of additional 20 % stake in EPC on April 6th. 

Valuations and outlook

JISL has plans to raise Rs. 700 cr through QIP to repay its debt, to provide capital to its new NBFC and to support its future growth. Company believes that fund raising would happen in the next 3-4 months, depending upon the financial market conditions. I have not considered any equity dilution in my estimates. Company declared 1 bonus DVR SHARES (JISLDVREQ DVR shares ) on every 20  Equity Shares held. DVR with 10 % voting rights (click here for DVRs). I therefore recommend Buy and accumulate Jain Irrigation at every dip. My views are positive on the business of JISL and their future prospects on the back of untapped potential of MIS, agricultural business model and strong domestic presence. At present with the drip irrigation market is growing 40 % annually, stock is trading at 22.3x at FY12E EPS as against its historical one - year forward trading band of 10 x 32x. I recommend BUY on the stock with the target of Rs. 350.00

KEY FINANCIALS	2010	2011E	2012E	2013E
SALES (Rs. Cr's)	3,439.7	4,425.6	5,164.2	6,028.1
NET PROFIT (Rs. crs)	245.7	277.4	366.8	489.3
EPS (Rs.)	6.5	7.3	9.6	12.8
PE (x)	33.2	29.5	22.3	16.7
PRICE/BOOK (x)	6.6	5.5	4.5	3.6
EV/EBITDA (x)	16.8	13.6	11.5	9.5

I recommend BUY on the stock with the target of Rs. 350.00 for the long term.

For short term if one wants to play Budget -  Buy at Current Market Price with the target of Rs. 230, But please do keep a STRICT STOP LOSS OF 8 %. 

For LONG term investors BEST buy is at Rs. 180 - 195.

Always Buy DVR shares (Differential Voting Rights) !!!

DVR shares are Differential Voting Rights – which is just like ordinary Equity shares, paying dividends as ordinary equity shares, has voting rights. But the difference is that these DVR shares carry lower Voting Rights and higher Dividends.

The class “A” DVR shares carries 1/10th of voting rights i.e. 1 voting Right for every 10 DVR shares held. The class “A” DVR shares offers 5% more Dividend than ordinary equity shares.

Because of such reasons, DVR shares normally trade at 10% to 15 % discount to the ordinary equity shares of that company. The Companies Act allows companies to issue differential voting rights upto 25 % of its total issued share capital with the conditions that it should have distributable profits & no default in filing annual returns in past 3 years.

We hold Equity shares in small quantities and we do not attend Annual General Meetings of the companies, also our vote does not have any importance or relevance to these companies. So, in order to let go my voting rights (which I normally don’t use) I get paid with 5% extra dividends, my return on investment goes up, Dividend yield goes up, all that by just letting away my voting rights go, that’s it….. 

Globally DVRS trade between 10 % - 15 % discount to its Equity shares depending upon the extra dividend offered to DVR, for e.g. If a company's equity shares trades at Rs.100/sh and dividend declared is Rs.10/sh and its DVR holders gets Rs.10.50 as dividend (Rs. 0.50 extra because he let go its voting rights) means that its DVR should be trading at Rs.89.50/share. According to Indian Company Law, 1) the shares with Differential Rights shall not exceed 26 % of the total post-issue paid up Equity Share Capital including equity shares with differential rights issued at any point of time (voting rights ratio should range from 2:1 to 10:1 only), 2) Issuing company to have consistent track record of distributable profits for last 3 years. But since the Indian audiences are not aware about this beautiful instrument, DVR trends to trade at 40 % - 50 % discount to its Equity shares. One should buy DVR at 40 % - 45 % discount to its EQ SH & Sell when DVR comes near to 10 % - 15 % discount to its EQ SH.

So, friends it makes sense to buy DVR shares. 

Tata Motors DVR – The first company to come with an DVR, Tata Motors DVR trades at 30 % discount to its equity shares market price. Normally it should trade at 10% - 15% discount to its equity shares. Globally DVR’s are traded at 10% discount to its equity shares, but see the ignorance of us Indian investors who buys the shares which have No Fundamentals but fails to understand such a beautiful instrument. They feel that DVR’s are complicated & offers lower rights, but ideally he should buy such shares if the company offering DVR share is good in fundamentals.

TATA MOTORS offered 6.42 Cr DVR share at Rs.295 which was at 10% discount to its equity shares price of Rs.330 on Nov 5th 2008 to raise Rs.1896.85 Cr with 1 voting right for every 10 DVR shares held along with 5 % extra dividend over ordinary shares. The class “A” DVR share is 15.8% of total share capital of Tata Motors. Tata Sons holds 34.25% stake.
After Tata Motor , Pantaloon Retail India & Gujarat NRE Coke have also issued its DVR shares.
Pantaloon Retail India issued 1 bonus share with different voting & dividend rights for every 10 held in 2008. the new class is called "B" shares with 5% more dividend than ordinary shares & would have 1 vote for 10 shares held.
Gujarat NRE Coke issued DVR in May 2010 as bonus shares in ratio of 1 DVR bonus shares for every 10 Equity shares held, here the DVR bonus shares would hold 1 voting right to 100 shares held.  

DVR's	Tata Motors DVR	Guj. NRE Coke DVR	Pantaloon Retail DVR
Total number of DVR Shares	6,41,76,680	5,07,14,292	1,59,29,152
Promoters Holdings	2,32,64,396 - 36.26 %	2,41,01,468 - 47.51 %	74,07,693 - 46.53 %
Number of Shares Holders	16,700	1,53,382	18,998

SOME BRIEF ABOUT COMPANIES ISSUED DVR's GLOBALLY

COMPANY	Country	Voting rights (ord)	Per Share DVR	Extra Dividend	Business
BMW	Germany	1	N0	€ 0.02	Automobile
Bombardier	Canada	10	1	$0.001563	Aircraft & Train Mfg
Brown Forman	US	1	No	---	Alcohol
Comcast Corp	US	1	No	---	Media
Fiat	Italy	1	Sp.cases	€ 0.31	Automobile
Forest City	US	10	1	----	Real Estate
Haverty Furniture	US	10	1	5 % of FV	Others
Hubbell Inc	US	20	1	----	Electrical s.
Lennar Corp	US	10	1	----	Real Estate
News Corp	US	10	1	----	Media
Samsung Electronics	Korea	1	No	----	Electronics
Telephone & Data System	US	1	No	----	Telecom
Viacom	US	1	No	----	Media
Volkswagen	Germany	1	No	€ 0.06	Automobile
Guj.NRE Coke	India	1	1/10th	----	Metals
Tata Motors	India	1	1/10th	Re 0.50	Automobile
Pantaloon Retail	India	1	1/10th	Re 0.10	Retail

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GET MORE ON TATA MOTOR STOCK/DVR - CLICK HERE