US PRINTING NOTES AGAIN: DEBASEMENT OF CURRENCY

"MONEY MONEY MONEY!!!!"

On November 3, 2010. Federal Reserve chairman Ben S Bernanke decided to have a second round of Quantitative Easing (QE2). He decided to pump in $600 billion into the US economy by buying an additional Treasury Bond through June in order to reduce unemployment & avoid deflation by printing money. And printing more & more money would be more “Debasement of your Currency”. This will lead to surging commodity prices & asset bubbles not only in the US but also in Emerging Markets. The US Fed reserve calls it liquidity into the financial system by merely printing more & more dollars, which are not backed by real assets such as Gold. Technically, there is no limit to this printing, i.e. No supply restriction on paper currencies. This is what economists called “Debasement of Currency”.

Gold has a unique characteristic of a store of value which is not with paper currencies, which tend to lose value over a period of time due to inflation (loss of purchasing power) caused by an oversupply of printed money.

We will compare the Currency in Circulation issued and the underlying Gold held by concerned Central Banks in developed countries. Divide the Gold reserves (in tonnes) held by Central Banks with the currency in circulation (in billion $) of the respective countries will give us a ratio, a Gold to currency ratio.

In 1973, Gold held by the US central bank was 8,584 tonnes & the currency in circulation was $61 billion. Dividing the gold held by the currency in circulation, we get a ratio of 140.2 for that year. i.e. 140.2 tonnes of gold was held per $1 billion of currency in circulation. In the year 2007, the US central bank held 8,133 tonnes of Gold & the money in circulation was a whopping $759 billion. The ratio comes to 10.7 .i.e. only 10.7 tonnes of gold held per billion dollars in circulation.

If the US were to get back to the 1973 ratio of gold held per billion $ in circulation, it would have to increase its Gold Reserve to whopping 1,07,153 tonnes from the current 8,133 tonnes, an increase of more than 13 times in potential demand. With the financial crisis not over yet, Central Banks like FED would continue to inject more & more money into the financial system. Thus the debasement of currency will continue, making real assets like GOLD & SILVER more & more attractive as a hedge against reducing purchasing power & loss of faith & confidence in paper currencies.

We should thank GOD that the US does not have a printing press for Gold. The YELLOW metal may be the only Savior of our wealth over the longer term. That sure makes a case to buy GOLD. As far as our INDIA is a concern, India’s M3 supply in INM3MS=ECI as of July 16,2010 was Rs.57,821.41 billion from Rs.56,770.76 billion (June 18,2009) & Rs.4984.46 billion on July 3,2009. GOLD RESERVE AS ON SEPTEMBER 10, 2010 – 557.7 tonnes.

SO..GOLD IS ALWAYS A BUY EVEN AT THIS PRICE. BUY IN GRAMS IT SURELY WILL MAKE YOUR WEALTH SLOWLY BUT SURELY.....

Read my previous post on GOLD - CLICK HERE -  MORE ON GOLD

THE POWER OF COMPOUNDING

HI Friends!! Many a times we have heard about the power of compounding, we have also learnt some of them too….but the things we learn from practical life can not be taught by textbooks…..Similarly I came across one investor who is about 60 yrs of age retired teacher who invested way back in 1980’s kept hold onto it and made….HOW MUCH….GUESS!!!!!!!! Lakhs…Millions…Crores….Just imagine…

He invested 30 years back by just investing Rs.1,000/- initially. He subscribed in 10 shares of this Company with a face value of Rs. 100/- in 1980…

• In 1981 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 20 shares

• In 1985 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 40 shares

• In 1986 company split the share to Rs. 10 = he had 400 shares

• In 1987 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 800 shares

• In 1989 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 1600 shares

• In 1992 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 3200 shares

• In 1995 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 6400 shares

• In 1997 company declared 1 : 2 bonus = he had 19,200 shares

• In 1999 company split the share to Rs. 2 = he had 96,000 shares

• In 2004 company declared 1 : 2 bonus = he had 2,88,000 shares

• In 2005 company declared 1 : 1 bonus = he had 5,76,000 shares

• In 2010 company declared 3:2bonus = he have 9,60,000 shares

At the end...now in 2010 he has 9,60,000 shares of this company

Any guesses about the company?

His present valuation is about Rs. 41.86 Cr. & the company is ‘WIPRO’ - Western India Vegetable Products Ltd.

This is the power of compounding. Take a look below - 

What this simple but astonishing table shows is how if money is allowed to quietly compound, it attains enormous proportions. See how a sum of Rs. 1 lakh per annum over a period of 25 years at a rate of return of 25 % becomes an incredible Rs. 2.64 crores. Imagine if you could save 10 lakhs every year, in 25 years you would have 26 crores !!

Wipro managed to rope in many shareholders and helped them reap profits. The process started with just 17,000 shares that Wipro issued to the public at Rs. 100 each in 1947. In 1971, the company issued one bonus share for every three share held. In 1981, it was a one for one offer and this history of bonus shares kept on moving with time.

Other such examples ….....

CIPLA = Investment of Rs. 10,000/- in 1979 will fetch Rs. 95 cr.+

INFOSYS = Investment of Rs. 10,000/- in 1992 will fetch Rs. 1.5 cr.+

RANBAXY = Investment of Rs. 1,000/- in 1980 will fetch Rs. 1.9 cr.+

MICRO-MAX MOBILE: PLANS IPO !!!

MicroMax Informatics Ltd - India's one of the leading mobile handset maker is planning for an IPO. Company intends to sale 2,15,46,118 shares through IPO. The price could be around Rs. 210 per share, an total of Rs. 452 cr to be raised by diluting 10.03 % of post issue. This values the company around Rs. 4500 cr. Equity Prior Issue - 19,32,70,610 shares ; Post Issue - 21,48,16,728 shares.

3 PE investors have already bought a 5.75 % stake in pre ipo for Rs. 210 cr from 4 promoters this Sept 2010. Sequia Capital has - 2.68 %; Sandstone Capital - 2.68 %; Madison India Capital - 0.39 % bought from Rajesh Agarwal, Rahul Sharma, Sumeet Kumar & Vikas Jain for an estimate price of Rs. 181 cr.(After accounting for Bonus shares) rest unknown. TA Associates a major PE investor has 15 % stake bought in DEC 09 at around Rs. 100 cr. Total PE investment in company is around Rs. 410 cr, whereas the promoters actual contribution is Rs. 6 lakh per head. Indian handset makers market share went up to 17.5 % from merly 0.9 % last year. MicroMax enjoys 4.1 % of market share followed by Spice - 3.9 %, Karbonn mobiles - 3 %, Nokia - 54.1 %, Samsung -9.7 %. MicroMax mobiles sold 70.5 lakh handset by March 2010, it also sells mobile data cards.

Financial Details -

Net Worth as on 31 March 2010 - Rs. 208.624 cr ;

Net Asset Value - Rs. 11.75/sh.

Total Income - Rs. 1601 cr ; Net Profit - Rs. 200 cr (March 2010).

Revenue have jumped 4.5 x against last year & net profit grew to 5.7 x from last year. The reason of high margins in bussiness is due to wafer thin overhead with cost of product sold comprising 2/3rd of total sales.

Company's Employee cost is around Rs. 7 cr. Selling & distributing Expenses Rs. 75 cr. On the basis of last fiscal profit on a post issue- EPS- Rs. 9.3 ; P/E - 22.5 .

FUTURE PLANS -

Company is looking at valuation of 13.3x its previous years EBITDA. Company wants to use half of the proceeds amounting to Rs. 226 cr in setting up new handset manufacturing plant near TamilNadu. The rest of the amount Rs. 125 cr in BRAND buliding for next 2 years (April'11 - March'13). Investment in acquisition Rs.75 cr by March'11. Rest Rs. 26 cr in strategic initiatives to be used by current year March'11.

Company had expanded bussiness in international market, It intends to expand in Nepal by January, SriLanka by June, Bangladesh by July. Also it intends to expand its wings to Nigeria, Ghana & UAE.

Country "PEG" Ratio

The PEG ratio (Price to Earnings divided by Growth ratio) is a valuation metric for determining the relative trade-off between the price of a stock, the earnings generated per share (EPS), and the company's expected growth. In general, the P/E ratio is higher for a company with a higher growth rate. Thus using just the P/E ratio would make high-growth companies overvalued relative to others. It is assumed that by dividing the P/E ratio by the earnings growth rate, the resulting ratio is better for comparing companies with different growth rates.

The PEG ratio is used for individual stocks as a valuation measure that factors in growth rates. It is calculated by dividing the company's P/E ratio by its growth rate. Many investors would rather own a company with a high P/E ratio and an even higher growth rate than a company with a low P/E ratio and an even lower growth rate. A PEG ratio of one or less is typically viewed positively.

The PEG ratio is considered to be a convenient approximation. It was popularized by Peter Lynch, who wrote in "One Up on Wall Street" that "The P/E ratio of any company that's fairly priced will equal its growth rate", i.e. a fairly valued company will have its PEG equal to 1.

If we decide to apply the PEG ratio to various countries by dividing estimated GDP growth into the P/E ratio of the country's main stock market index. Many developed countries have low P/E ratios, but they also have low GDP growth, while developing countries may have higher market valuations as well as stronger GDP growth. Investors may find PEG ratios more useful than simple P/E ratios when determining asset allocations for various countries.

Below are the PEG ratios for 22 countries around the world. For each country, we will use the trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the index shown as well as estimated 2010 GDP growth. As shown, Russia and China have the lowest country PEG ratios at 1.86 and 1.90, respectively. Russia has a very low P/E at 8 and decent estimated GDP growth at 4.3%. China, on the other hand, has a rather high P/E ratio at 19.24, but its GDP growth is also very high at 10.10%. The US is right in the middle of the pack with a PEG of 5.07. Mexico rank just above the US with a PEG of 3.85, while Canada ranks just below the US at 5.67.

The US does have the best PEG ratio in the G-7, so US investors looking for developed country exposure might be better offer staying right at home. European countries have exceptionally high PEG ratios because of their mediocre valuations and low growth rates. Australia and Spain both have negative PEGs -- Australia because it has a negative P/E and Spain because it has negative GDP growth.

NIFTY TRADES IN US FROM TODAY : S&P DOW JONES WILL JOIN INDIAN MARKETS SOON

Scheduled to Launch Monday, July 19, 2010

CME Group has partnered with The National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) and Standard & Poor’s to offer trading institutions two smart new ways to take part in the dynamic opportunities of the Indian stock market. E-mini and E-micro S&P CNX Nifty futures (Nifty 50 futures) are scheduled to begin trading on Monday, July 19, 2010.

The contracts will be listed and traded on the CME Globex platform, providing nearly round-the-clock trading access. Trading hours will be Monday-Friday, 3:30 p.m. – 3:15 p.m. the next day (except Friday, which closes at 3:15 p.m.) with a trading halt Sundays-Thursdays from 9:30-10:30 p.m. CDT (8:30 p.m.-9:30 p.m. CST) coinciding with the hour prior to the NSE open.

Cross-Listing Arrangement on March 10, 2010, CME Group and NSE announced cross-listing arrangements that Include license agreements covering benchmark indexes for U.S. and Indian equities. The agreement provides CME Group with rights to create and list U.S. dollar-denominated futures contracts for trading on CME, while providing NSE with rights to create and (subject to the regulatory approval) list Rupee-denominated futures contracts on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) for trading on NSE. Combine with other benchmark index contracts to express views on the direction of India’s market vs. the U.S. stock market (E-mini S&P 500 futures), vs. a broader view of world’s emerging markets (E-mini MSCI Emerging Markets futures) or to capitalize on arbitrage opportunities from short-term price differences vs. the SGX futures contract on the S&P CNX Nifty Index. You also can trade the contracts outright to hedge your risk from existing exposure to the Indian stock market.

ANIL PLAYS THE GAME AGAIN...!!!!!!

Anil Ambani decided to merge RNRL with Reliance Power today....The ratio as I thought was 1 Reliance power for every 4 RNRL. The merger deal is valued at $11 billion. This merger values RNRL at Rs.7157 cr.

Reliance Power will dilute around 40.8 crore Sharea a 17.00 %. This merger will be negative for Reliance Power shareholders, while very good for RNRL, Rpower pays for a shell co with no real asset to invest into....whereas RNRL shareholders will now have a real assets to invest. Anil Ambani holds 42.39 % in Rel.Power & Rel Infra Holdes - 42.39 %. The combine market cap will be Rs.50,000 crs. 

RNRL shareholders including the promoters will get shares of RELIANCE POWER worth Rs.7157 cr, out of these,promoter would get shares worth over Rs.3600 cr. Here are some details of this both company -

RELIANCE POWER

Equity Sh (nos. in Cr) - 239.68 ;  Equity Cap (Rs. In Cr) -2396.80 ; Market Cap (Rs. In Cr) -41979.95 ; Net Sales - FY10  - 0.00 ; Net Profit - FY10  -683.89 ; Other Income - FY10  -843.38 ; Earning Per Share - 2.85 ; P/E Ratio  - 61.46 ; Face Value -10.00 ; TOTAL ASSET -  FY09  - 15111.64 ; Market Price -175.15 ;26- week H/L avg price - 152.58 ; 2 - week H/L avg price - 170.46 ; Promoter Share holding % - 84.78 ; Public Share holding % -15.22 ; No. share holders - 3595703 ; EV - 175.15/sh ; Book Value - 57.55/sh ; EV/EBITDA - 162.44 ; Long term Debt - 0.00

RNRL

Equity Sh (nos. in Cr) -163.31; Equity Cap (Rs. In Cr) - 816.56 ;Market Cap (Rs. In Cr) -10394.94 ; Net Sales - FY10 (Rs.In Cr) -298.39 ; Net Profit - FY10 (Rs.In.Cr) -90.75 ; Other Income - FY10 (Rs.In.Cr) -167.63 ; Earning Per Share (In Rs) -0.56 ; P/E Ratio (In Times) -113.66 ; Face Value - 5.00 ; TOTAL ASSET - FY09 (Rs.In Cr) -3323.44 ; Market Price -63.65; 26- week H/L avg price - 62.60 ; 2 - week H/L avg price - 64.61 ; Promoter Share holding % - 54.84 ; Public Share holding % - 45.16 ; No. share holders - 2534917 ; EV - 72.97/sh ; Book Value - 11.02/sh ; EV/EBITDA - 71.45 ; Long term Debt- Rs.1522.05 cr - Rs.9.32/sh

THE YUAN DE - PEGGING STORY........

                    Almost for 2 year’s Chinese government with the help of People’s Republic Bank Of China – the Chinese central bank had managed to keep the value of their currency Yuan pegged to the value of US dollar. One $ was worth around 6.82 Yuan.

                    China is an export driven economy. Their main export market is the US. So when an Chinese company exports goods to US it gets paid in US$. These $ are converted to Yuan, it means $ are sold and Yuan is bought. Over a period of times, as exports keeps going up, more $ are sold and more Yuan are bought. This of course increases demand for Yuan & it starts to appreciate or increase in value against $. And an appreciation in currency is detrimental to exporter.

                    This means, suppose say a Chinese exporter exports goods worth $100000. When he converts them at 1$=6.82 Yuan he gets 682000 Yuan ($100000x6.82) in return. Now say the Yuan appreciates and 1$=6.6 Yuan, then the exporter will get 660000 ($100000x6.6). Thus he will not make the same amount of 682000. If he wants to make the same money he will have to raise prices. It’s well known that Chinese compete on price & not quality, the exporter may not be in position to raise prices. This is were the government comes in by ensuring that the value of the Yuan stays constant around 6.82 to $, so that the exporter does not have to deal with any fluctuation in currency.

                    Government of china in order to maintain Yuan at 6.82 to $ starts selling Yuan & buys $. Because when lots of $ come into china to buy Yuan, pushes up the demand of Yuan & Central Bank of China starts selling Yuan & buys $. This ensures that there are enough Yuan in market & its value dos not appreciate.

                    Now China has suddenly decided to de-peg its currency as US feels that China is a currency manipulator, US feels that china has held the value of Yuan against the $ constant & this is what has kept their export machinery chugging along. They feel this has led to situation where Americans citizens continue to buy cheap Chinese goods instead of home grown ones.If Chinese government had not involved itself with the foreign exchange market & let it work independently then the flow of $ into china would have ensured that the Yuan would have appreciated against $.

                    Suppose if 1 $ = 6 Yuan, means exporter exporting goods worth $100000 would make 600000 Yuan. Under the pegged regime he would have earned 682000 Yuan. Now, to earn that much, he has to sell goods for $113666.7 (682000/6). This means he has to increase its price to 13.67%. This in turn would make Americans buy American goods instead of low priced Chinese goods. Nobel Prize winning economist Pual Krugman had earlier proposed to impose a 25 % surcharge on Chinese imports to US. He felt that this will make Chinese goods expensive & will result into Americans buying more US goods. Basically the allegation against china on being currency manipulator have been growing in US, and US the biggest market for china do not want US to take any strict steps that would hurt its exports. So it wants to de-peg it currency against US$.

                    Currently if something worth $1000 it will be worth 6820 Yuan in china if it is imported, if 1$ = 6 Yuan, then it would be worth 6000 Yuan which is lower. So some experts believe that this will make Chinese buy more imported goods & that in turn will help the exports across the globe. China will take time to change its spending habits. Currently china’s saving rate is 54 %.

                    And off course in order to maintain the peg, the Chinese Central Bank bought $ & sold Yuan that explains Foreign Exchange Reserve of $ 2.4 trillion. And all this money found its way back primarily into US & other western economies, helping them to finance their fiscal deficits. Now if these Chinese really let the Yuan float even partially, its rate of accumulation of Forex reserve might slow down. This means lesser $ to help finance the fiscal deficit in the US.

SAMRUDDHI CEMENTS LISTS AT Rs.579.75

NAME - NSE - SAMRUDDHI ; BSE- 533209.

Share Price - Rs.488 ;

Market Cap - Rs.12,770.15 cr ;

Total Debts - Rs.2100 cr ;

52 Week High - Rs.590 ; Low- Rs.477.15 ;

P/E - 00.00 ; EPS - 00.00 ;

Book Value - Rs.175.15 ; Industry P/E - 8.95 ;

Fv - Rs.5.00 ; Dividend - 35 % ;

Total Shares Issued - 26,16,83,571 shares ;

Promoter's Holding - 16,99,99,988 shares ; Promoter's holding in % - 65%

SAMRUDDHI CEMENTS LTD today made its debut at Rs.588 on BSE after its demerger with GRASIM IND

Listing Samruddhi Cement on the bourses is a part of the restructuring process of the cement business of the Aditya Birla group.

The company has listed with 26.16 crore equity shares of face value of Rs 5 each.

Shares of Samruddhi Cement touched a high of Rs 600 and a low of Rs 478.15 on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

On the National Stock Exchange, the scrip listed at Rs 579.75. It touched a high of Rs 590 and low of Rs.477.15.

The company made its listing on the bourses after Aditya Birla Group flagship firm Grasim Industries, last year, approved the demerger of Samruddhi Cement with itself.

As part of the arrangement, the company will be merged with UltraTech Cement on 10 July 2010.

Accordingly, 4 shares of UltraTech would be issued for every 7 shares of Samruddhi.

Each Grasim shareholder had received one equity share of Rs 5 of Samruddhi Cement for every one share held in Grasim, as a part of the scheme.

The merged entity will have an annual capacity to produce 48.8 million grey cement with 22 plants. It will also have 11. 7 million cubic metres of ready mix concrete across 68 plants along with captive thermal power plants of 504 mega watts.

After the completion of the merger, Grasim would hold 60. 3% of UltraTech's expanded equity capital and 39.7 % would be held directly by other shareholders of UltraTech and Samruddhi.

It is to be noted that the Fair Value of Samruddhi Cements is 55 % Ultratech Cements price.

My previous post on this event click - GRASIM IND SAMRUDDHI DEMERGER

Cabinet Deferres the decision on Rupee Symbol

The rupee's entry into the elite club of currencies with their own symbols will take longer with the government on 24th deferring a decision on the issue. The Cabinet was to finalise the symbol on 24th June 2010, but the matter was deferred after Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee asked for more time to go through the short-listed signs, sources said.

                   The issue was on the agenda of the Cabinet, which met under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh here, but was deferred, sources said.

The government has shortlisted five designs for the rupee from among the symbols suggested to the Ministry of Finance by the public.
In the Budget this year, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had said that "in the ensuing year, we intend to formalise a symbol for the Indian rupee, which reflects and captures the Indian ethos and culture."
With this, the rupee will join the select club of currencies, such as the US dollar, British pound sterling, euro and Japanese yen that have a clear distinguishing identity, he had said.
Last year, the Finance Ministry had invited design suggestions from the public for the Indian currency.
"The government of India proposes to have a symbol for the Indian rupee to be selected through public competition," the Finance Ministry had said.
The symbol, the ministry had said, should represent the historical and cultural ethos of the country as widely accepted across the country and should be applicable to the standard keyboard.

My favourite one is number- 4

ONE SHOULD ALWAYS BUY GOLD

               Before the great depression, most of the world used gold as a currency. Of course, that did mean every time someone purchased something they paid for it in gold. Governments maintained a certain amount of gold in their vaults & paper currency was issued against the value of that gold. (In INDIA, the minimum reserve worth Rs.200 cr should be maintained at any point of time, out of these reserves Gold reserves should be worth Rs.115 cr @ Rs. 94/10 grams & a Forex reserve of Rs 85 cr at the current market price. If actual reserves are more than the minimum reserve RBI may prints new currency notes & issues them to deficit banks in form of loans against gold, foreign exchange, promissory notes & treasury notes) So every time you pay paper money you effectively using gold. This system was the “Gold Standard”. Citizens also had the freedom to exchange these currency notes for gold, as and when they deemed fit.

               The government ensured that no more notes are printed. The reason was simple if they had to print more money they needed more gold in their vaults because every paper currency note out there was essentially gold. And if citizens got the slightest hint that the government is printing currency, they would all land up at the bank to exchange their paper currency for gold. So even if the government was tempted to print money they would think twice before doing it.

               Now, during the time of the great depression, growth was a problem, unemployment was at its peak. Firms were shutting down. One way to create growth was the government printing notes & giving them to people in various ways to spend. Once the citizen got some money in their hands, they would go out and spend it. This ensures that they buy goods & services. And one man’s spending is another man’s income and so the cycle would continue and this would create some growth. And that’s what the government did; they moved out of Gold Standard and went into FIAT Currency i.e. a currency that does not have anything backing it but basically the fiat of government. This gave them the freeway to print any amount of money they want to.

               In fact, in the year 1933, the US government confiscated all the gold that its citizens had through Executive Order 6102 signed by the then President Mr. Franklin D Roosevelt, forbidding the hoarding of gold coins, gold bullion & gold certificates by US citizens. They were of course compensated for their gold at the rate of $20.67 per troy ounce (1 troy ounce=31.1grams). So because of this, the government across the world had the freedom to print currency whenever the economy was in trouble. And as per the basics of economics, an increase in supply leads to a decrease in purchasing power. That’s why economists who follow the Austrian school of economics, say that all paper currencies over a period of time go back to their intrinsic value i.e. zero.

               So that is why whenever there is a hint of a major financial crisis, people figure out that almost any solution that the governments might come up with will ultimately end up printing more & more money (which the US is doing to solve its financial problem and Europe cant due to its structure). This means decreasing purchasing power. The smart money in this situation always moves to gold. As it is now, people end up treating gold as nothing but what it was always used as i.e. CURRENCY. One should always have at least 25 % of its portfolio in Gold in order to hedge inflation.

Always buy gold in parts of SIP Systematic Investment Plans, or go into Gold ETFs...

Some of the GOLD ETFs are -

GOLD BeES (I prefer this as it is the first-ever launched, more experienced and of huge gold deposits)

Kotak Gold ETF

Reliance Gold ETF

Religare Gold ETF

SBI Gold ETF

UTI Gold ETF 

READ MY POST ON US PRINTING MORE NOTES

GOLD PRICES PERFORMANCE

Gold Price Performance

Silver Price Performance

INDIA's FIRST IDR: THANKS TO STANDARD CHARTERED BANK PLC.

STANDARD CHARTERED BANK PLC

Standard Chartered PLC (STAN: LN) Bloomberg is all set to be the first foreign company to list in India through an Indian Depository Receipts (IDR) issue. India is the most profitable unit after Hong Kong. StanChart as it is called in short will offer to sell 24 crore IDR’s through public issue on May 25th 2010.

The issue will be 10 IDR = 1 share of Standard Chartered Plc of US$ 0.50. Like Global Depository (GDR’s) & American Depository Shares (ADS’s), IDR are the derivative instrument with shares as the underlying asset, they allow foreign companies to raise money in India.

StanChart expects to raise $500-$750 million (Rs 2250-3375 Crs). Calculation shows that an issue price of Rs 105-115 per share. This will be Stan Chart’s 3rd listing after London & Hong Kong & its next stop is Shangai.

StanChart is in India from 1858 in Kolkata; here it has 94 branches across 37 cities with over 20 lakh customers. It wants to show its commitment towards India which contributes 12 % of its global revenues. StanChart’s Net Profit grew 30 % CAGR in last 3 yrs, while Profit before Tax grew by 38 %. Base on 2009 results, StanChart’s Price to Book = 2 times, much better than 2.5 times of SBI. P/E at 14.6 times v/s 15.7 of SBI & 29.4 of HDFC Bank. Price band will be announced by May 24th 2010 depending on the closing price of the shares listed in UK.

What does IDRs means to an Indian sharesholders in terms of Taxations.....

Like Global Depository Receipts (GDR’s) & American Depository Shares (ADS’s), IDR are the derivative instrument with parent companies shares as the underlying asset, they allow foreign companies to raise money in India. An IDR holder acquires the same rights as a shareholder, except that he/she can neither attend the AGM nor vote on resolutions. NRI’s can trade in the IDR’s.

The biggest question doing the rounds is – what could be the tax implications for the Indian IDR holder? The good news is that IDR does not come under the purview of Securities Transaction Tax. But the IDR holder will have to pay tax on the dividend income earned. It is not yet clear whether the tax payable would be equal to the Dividend Distribution Tax which for the current fiscal stands at 16.61%. So tax seems sure but the rate is yet unsure.

Then there is the question of short and long term capital gains tax?

Currently, Long term gains made from Indian Stock Exchanges (stock held for more than 12 months) is completely exempted from tax while Short term capital gains tax (held less than 12 months) stands at 15%. But the IDR does not fall under the STT, so maybe it will not enjoy the same benefits as the shares listed on the Indian Exchanges enjoys. So this means that IDR’s will be taxed like any other asset –long term tax- held for over 36 months would be around 20%. Short term tax, when asset is held for less than a year, will be like regular income earned, at 30.9%.

There is no real clarity yet on this treatment of tax but surely, the Govt will have to bring a notification soon. A quick resolution on the tax angle is urgent and imperative or else it could undermine the very lure of this IDR.

According to the red-herring prospectus, the legal regime for IDR’s is still to be tested; investors in IDR’s may not get the benefits of a bonus issue or a rights issue; Even dividend income on IDR’s will be taxed in the hands of the investors and long-term capital gains tax will be another additional burden. Standard Chartered Bank has said whenever the company and/or the depository is unable to make bonus issues or rights issues available to the IDR holders, the depository will try and sell the deposited property that is the subject of the distribution on behalf of the IDR holders and distribute the net proceeds thereof as a cash distribution to the IDR holders.

Standard Chartered said it has agreed that for all corporate actions including voting, rights issues, the payment of dividends and other distributions, it will treat IDR holders on an equitable basis vis-à-vis other holders of shares in the home country (the UK). However, it pointed out that in circumstances where certain corporate actions, which are available to the holders of shares in the home country of the company and other jurisdictions where its shares are listed, are not permitted by Indian laws to be offered to IDR holders.

There is also a term called "Fungibility", now what does this means & how it relates to IDR/ADRS ?

The actual meaning of the word fungible is the ability to substitute one unit of a financial instrument for another unit of the same financial instrument. However, in trading, fungibility usually implies the ability to buy or sell the same financial instrument on a different market with the same end result.

Its a financial instrument (i.e. individual stock, futures contract, options contract, etc.) is considered fungible if it can be bought or sold on one market or exchange, and then sold or bought on another market or exchange.

For example, if one hundred shares of an individual stock can be bought on the NASDAQ in the US, and the same one hundred shares of the same individual stock can be sold on the London Stock Exchange in the UK, with the result being zero shares, the individual stock would be considered fungible. There are many fungible financial instruments, with most popular being individual stocks, some commodities (e.g. gold, silver, etc.), and currencies.

Fungible financial instruments are often used in arbitrage trades, because the difference in the price (the arbitrage part) often comes from a difference in location (the fungible part). For example, if the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate was 1.2500 in the US and 1.2505 in the UK, an arbitrage trader could buy Euros in the US, and then immediately sell Euros in the UK, making a profit of 0.0005 per Euro (or $5 per €10,000), because Euros are a fungible financial instrument. Similarly it implies to Stocks IDRs etc.

A LITTLE STORY ON MARKETS (On Request)

There was a small village, everyone there were living happily, one day someone from the big city came with his assistant, he announced that - "I will give Rs. 10 each for every monkey you catch and bring it to me", now the villagers started catching monkeys, soon villagers found a new job. They caught monkeys and sold to that stranger & made good money, after a short while villagers lost their interest. The stranger again announced that - "I will give you Rs. 15 each for every monkey", more monkeys came in, after a while the price of monkey went up to Rs. 60 !!! Suddenly one day the stranger was out of the village & his assistant said - "Look this guy does not pays me much, I want to sell all his monkeys at Rs. 50 each so when he comes back you can sell it back to him for Rs. 70" - the villagers agreed -The assistant sold all the monkeys to the villagers for Rs. 50 and went out of the village. Villagers were now left with their monkeys & still waiting........for the Stranger and his assistant to come... but none of this two came back & left villagers with their monkeys worth nothing...while that strangers made money out of nothing....

THE MORALE OF THE STORY - 

The villagers are we small Investors , our stocks are the monkeys and FII’s (Foreign Institutional Investors) are those strangers !!!

Do learn the lesson from this game.. and Invest safely, invest in good business and for long term... 


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A LITTLE STORY ON MARKETS

There was a small village, everyone in that village were living happily, one day someone from big city came with his assistant, he said - "I will give Rs. 10 for every monkey you catch, and bring it to me", villagers started catching monkeys, soon villagers found a new job. They caught monkeys and sold to that stranger & made good money, after a while they lost interest. The stranger said - "I will give you Rs. 15 for every monkey", more monkeys came in, after a while the price of monkey went up to Rs. 60 !!! Suddenly one day the stranger was out of the village his assistant said - "Look this guy does not pays me much, I want to sell all his monkeys at Rs. 50/each so when he comes back you can sell it back to him for Rs. 70" - the villagers agreed -The assistant sold all the monkeys to the villagers for Rs. 50 and went out of the village. Villagers were now left with their monkeys & still waiting........for the Stranger and his assistant to come... but none of this two came back & left villagers with their monkeys worth nothing...while that strangers made money out of nothing....

THE MORALE OF THE STORY - 

The villagers are we small Investors , our stocks are the monkeys and FII’s (Foreign Institutional Investors) are those strangers !!!

Lets us all learn the lesson, 

INDIA GDP GROWTH : A PREDICTION

Predictions about India GDP growth
Allianz, a major financial and insurance services provider has estimated that in 2009-10 fiscal gross domestic product of India would be growing at 6.5 percent. It says that even though economic recession has hit almost every financial market in world, emerging Asian economies like India would be growing, all be it at a slow pace.

Allianz says that growth of gross domestic product of India would be decidedly slow at first two quarters of financial year 2009-10 but would pick up in last two quarters. They have expressed that since there are sufficient and efficient capital and foreign exchange controls in place in India, it would be able to tide past difficulties like capital movements that can be extremely volatile.

Economic surveys conducted in India during February of 2008 fiscal had reported that gross domestic product of India would be growing at a rate of 8.7 percent. This was supposed to follow up impressive statistics of 2006-07 fiscal, when rate of growth of gross domestic product was 8.7 percent.

Much of this optimism was based on increase of rates of savings and investments in domestic financial circuit. It was predicted that aggregate gross domestic product of India in 2007-08 financial year would be approximately $10,00,82,03,62,968.85. It was expected that this growth would enable Indian economy to grow to one trillion dollar mark in near future.

In terms of nominal exchange rate, gross domestic product of India was supposed to be $1.16 trillion dollars in 2007-08 financial year. Per capita income in terms of nominal exchange rate was around $1,021.

Actual situation of India GDP growth
Actual picture is pretty different from what has been predicted. It is being assumed that in present scenario of economic recession, growth rate of India GDP would slip, if India's national government does not introduce economic stimulus packages.

NSE : Market methodology changes to FREE FLOAT METHOD

The National Stock Exchange’s index NIFTY will shift to free float capitalisation from market capitalization method from June 26th 2009. Under this method, the weightage of each of the 50 component stocks in the index will be proportionate to the amount of free float.

Free float is the number of shares of company in public hands- stocks that is “floating free”, that which is not with promoters.

Share holdings held by investors that would not, in the normal course come into the open market for trading are treated as 'Controlling/ Strategic Holdings' and hence not included in free-float.

In specific, the following categories of holding are generally excluded from the definition of Free-float:

Holdings by founders/directors/ acquirers which has control element

Holdings by persons/ bodies with "Controlling Interest"

Government holding as promoter/acquirer

Holdings through the FDI Route

Strategic stakes by private corporate bodies/ individuals

Equity held by associate/group companies (cross-holdings)

Equity held by Employee Welfare Trusts

Locked-in shares and shares which would not be sold in the open market in normal course.

The remaining shareholders would fall under the Free-float category.

Free-float factor is a multiple with which the total market capitalization of a company is adjusted to arrive at the Free-float market capitalization. Once the Free-float of a company is determined, it is rounded-off to the higher multiple of 5 and each company is categorized into one of the 20 bands given below. A Free-float factor of say 0.55 means that only 55% of the market capitalization of the company will be considered for index calculation.

Globally, most indices are moving to this system as it is perceived to be more representative of market action. Reliance Industries retained its position as the top weighted stock due to its high free float component (50%), ONGC 3.5% from 8%, NTPC to 1.9% from 6%, Infosys 7% from 3.77%, ICICI Bank 6.45% from 2.96%, Larsen & Toubro 6.41% from 3.27%, SAIL 0.77% from 2.34%. All the fund managers tracking the NIFTY made changes accordingly.

RIL's WEIGHT A HEADHEACHE TO FUND MANAGERS

India Index Services and Products (IISL), the NSE subsidiary which manages benchmark indices such as NIFTY came to know about difficulties to manage RIL weightage in index by fund managers. RIL is the largest market capitalization and with the highest weightage in Sensex & Nifty at 17.7% & 13.3% respectively.

The stock has being biggest contributor to the recent rally accounting to 861 pnts of the 3859 point Sensex up move. Fund managers both local & foreign, are taking a big hit in their portfolios for being significantly underweight on the counter, most of them are forced underweight by 500 bps. As per the SEBI rules local fund managers cannot bet more than 10% of their portfolio on a single stock. Foreign fund managers are bounded by mandates from their investor to stick to similar limits. Thus an average fund manager has lost nearly 2% returns on the underweight on just this stock. RIL’s size has begun to create problems for fund managers and is bound to increase. NSE is making the Nifty a free-float index which will add to its weight and also with completion of RPL merger will add up to 2% weightage. And it is possible that this bluechip giant may end up with a weight of 20%-plus on indices if it uses up its surplus cash for acquisitions. And suppose it does, India will have KOREA like situation where SAMSUNG INDUSTRIES accounts for a fifth or 20%-plus of the market. The most impact is that fund manager’s performance is benchmarked with Nifty and they cannot give more than 9.9% weightage to any stock, they have the risk of underperformance, and also none of the fund managers can take sells call, even if they have negative view on the stock because they are already underweight. A free market call on Reliance Industries is not possible and thus gives RIL a premium valuation.

In the recent rally, the stock outperformed the Sensex by huge margin. While the Sensex rose 47% between March 09 and May 13, the bluechip rose to 68%. This in turn, has taken its weightage up substantially on Nifty from 11% to 13.3% & on Sensex from 15.5% to 17.7%. In such situation, it depends on which way the index moves. If index is going up, then there is disadvantage. But when it fall the fund managers outperform because of under weight.

The only option is either to change the rules of 10% or follow MSCI and apply the 10/40 rule. This 10/40 methodology was introduced by MSCI indices in 2002. Accordingly the maximum weight of securities of a single issuer cannot exceed 10% of market value of the index, and the sum of the weights of all issuers representing more than 5% of the market value of the index cannot collectively exceed 40%.