ATTENTION !! Dear Readers, BHAVIKK SHAH's BLOG is totally free website. Contents here should be viewed for Knowledge purpose only. Author does not charge for any kinds of the services. Kindly don't entertain to any of the paid services in a name of BHAVIKK SHAH's BLOG !!

Sunday, March 13, 2016

LA OPALA RG LTD : A CLASSIQUE !!!

Scrip Code: 526947 LAOPALA
CMP:  Rs. 577.90 ;   Market Cap: Rs. 3,207.35 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 670 / Rs. 313.60.
Total Shares: 5,55,00,000 shares; Promoters : 3,60,87,500 shares – 65.02 %; Total Public holding : 1,94,12,500 shares – 34.98 %; Book Value: Rs. 41.41; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 9.94; Dividend: 65.00 %; P/E: 58.17 times; Ind. P/E: 47.45; EV/EBITDA: 84.65 times.
Total Debt: Rs. 7.86 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 3,214.80 Cr.

LA OPALA RG LIMITED: La Opala RG Limited was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Kolkata, India. La Opala RG Limited manufactures, sells, and exports lifestyle products in India and internationally. The company offers opal glass tableware products, such as plates, bowls, dinner sets, cup-saucer sets, coffee mugs, coffee cups, tea sets, soup sets, pudding, and dessert sets; and crystal-ware products comprising barware, vases, bowls, and stemware. It provides its products under La Opala, Diva, and Solitaire brands. The company had declared splits in face value of its shares from Rs. 10 to Rs. 2 in May 2014 and gave bonus of 1:1 in March 1994 and again 1:1 bonus in August 2006. Company manufacture’s glass and glassware products like plates, bowls, dinner sets, cup-saucer sets, coffee mugs, coffee cups, tea sets, soup sets, pudding and dessert sets; its crystal ware products comprises of barware, vases, bowls and stemware. Company’s brands include LaOpala, Diva, and Solitaire. The company’s manufacturing facilities are in Madhupur (Jharkhand) and Sitarganj (Uttarakhand). In 1999, Radha Glass and La Opala merged to become La Opala RG Limited. The Company is one of the largest organised crockery players in India with an installed capacity 13,000 MT TPA as on 31 March 2014. LaOpala, currently exports its brands to more than 40 countries which includes US, UK, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Spain as well as the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and the ASEAN region. La Opala Rg Ltd is locally compared with Asahi India, Hindustan National Glass Ltd, Borosil Glass, Saint-Gobain Ltd, Gujarat Borosil, Haldyn Glass, Nile Ltd, Swiss Glascoat, Sezal Glass, Triveni Glass, FGP Ltd, Jai Mata Glass and globally compared with Industrial Glass & Mirror Inc of USA, Bassett Furniture Inds of Virginia, Beazer Homes Usa Inc of USA, Cavco Industries Inc of USA.

Investment Rationale:
La Opala RG Limited is the largest glassware manufacturer in India. The Company is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of opal glass tableware and crystal-ware products within and outside India. In 1999, Radha Glass and La Opala got merged and become La Opala RG Limited. The company mainly manufactures glass and glass products of all types and exports its 85 % of crystal ware around the world. La Opala RG Ltd has a network of 125 distributors with 10,000 dealers across country and the number is increasing at the rate of 15 per cent annually. Company also exports 10 % of its opal ware production to 20 countries. La Opala has a grand 70 years of experience & has a strong presence in the national glass industry in India. La Opala products are widely distributed in all major towns of the country through a network of distributors and sales representatives covering all states of India. There are about 10,000 retail touch points through which the products of La Opala are sold. La Opala deals in Opal-ware and Crystal-ware products and has a strong product portfolio that spans over 100 products. La Opala is one of the established brands in the country. The company has brands that cater to all the sections of the society. For example, ‘Diva’ is the high end brand of the company and contributes around 40 % to the company’s turnover. Apart from ‘Diva’, the company has brands like ‘Crystal’ which caters to the upper segment and ‘La Opala’ which is targeted towards the mass market. Till the early eighties, kitchenware in the average Indian home would constitute primarily copper, aluminium and stainless steel utensils; cutleries in the form of tea-cups, saucers and spoons; cookware of aluminium; plastic bottles to store spices, sugar, salt and edible oil. The only sophisticated gadgetry was perhaps the pressure cooker. Gradual changes were seen with stainless steel utensils replacing copper and aluminium. Then microwave made a grand entry in a number of kitchens in mid-90s, and then, the newer kinds of utensils and storage vessels started forming a vital part of the Indian kitchen. Indian kitchens and kitchenware are now evolving from being purely functional to convenient and fashion driven. This gradual shift in lifestyle brought changes in the cooking and eating habits of the Indian consumer. Convenience has now become an important factor for selecting kitchenware and now there is more emphasis on aesthetics, novelty and style. Kitchen utensils like pots and frying pans, woks, saucepans, pressure cookers and glass items such as heat resistant casseroles and vitro-ceramic pans also form part of the products found in the cookware sub-segment. A third group of items such as plates, bowls, serving dishes, dinner sets, serving ware placemats and coasters form the tableware and crockery market sub-segment. Then there are cutlery items like cutting tools and instruments, knives forks and spoons, etc. and glassware items like tumblers, stemware, bottles, and jugs. Global Sources classifies Indian houseware suppliers into four categories- household supplies, kitchenware, pet supplies and tableware. Kitchenware, in turn, is segmented further into bake-ware & cookware, kitchen accessories and kitchen storage. The market can be classified in several ways with ceramic, china and porcelain, metal-ware, plastic-ware and wood-ware being the major sub-segments. As is evident, there is a considerable overlap between these different product sub segments. The cookware segment dominates the Indian house-ware market and with significant growth in rural incomes there is an inspiring shift in lifestyles from traditional bone china crockery to modern alternatives. This is expected to plug the extensive crockery-ware which is under-penetrated with a 24 % share in India’s total dinner set market. India is possibly the largest relatively under-explored tableware market in the world. There is a visible transition from conventional crockery to modern equivalents on the one hand and the use of unbranded to branded products on the other. The use of opal glassware products has gone a transition, from special occasions in the past to everyday use today. The opal glassware product is considered more durable compared to its bone china equivalent. The opal glassware product is completely hygienic and vegan, an advantage over its bone china competition that contains animal matter. There has been a steady growth in urbanisation and nuclear families, catalysing tableware consumption. The entry of international brands is helping widen the opal glassware market and enhance category visibility. In India, more than 90 % of sales in this segment happen through traditional channels but now modern retail methods & direct sales method are gaining popularity and also online retailers are fastly increasing their market share. Kitchenware market in India is still very much driven by purely functional requirements and there is a huge scope for market expansion. It is a very niche market today and features mostly imported brands. The future trends are likely to remain focussed around products and retail formats. In terms of product range, non-stick cookware, healthy eating, wider range of cutlery and storage containers are some of the areas where we should see interesting developments in the near future. On the health concerns, there is an increasing growth seen in utensils that can be used to cook food without the use of oil and the fact that for effective storage of different food items, a special set of containers is required is again a trend, which is just being explored in India. La Opala is prepared for the next phase of growth by brown field expansion at its Sitargunj unit with an additional capacity of 8000 MTPA and has started operations in November 2015. This will increase the capacity from 8000 MTPA to 16,000 MTPA creating enough room to scale the mid premium brand ‘Diva’, rapidly in the years to come. In FY14, the company modernised its Madhupur plant and successfully replaced fuel fire furnace by electric arc furnace thereby improving operating efficiency. In the anticipation of increasing capacity, the company has been steadily investing in the distribution channels over the years and currently its retail points stand at about 11,500-12,500. The company funded this expansion plan by offering private placement to the tune of Rs. 55.3 Cr in FY15 avoiding the possible leverage on the balance sheet and hence without increasing any related interest outflow. To widen its product portfolio, the company introduced a new range of borosilicate cookware products in FY15 sourced from the Europe, diversifying the products offered. The management is committed to focus on the brand creation by continuous investing in the advertisement spends leading to the increased brand visibility among the potential consumers. La Opala’s revenue tripled in six year from Rs. 75 Cr in FY10 to Rs. 223.3 Cr in FY15, witnessing a 24 % CAGR growth. The company is mulling to launch new brands and will increase its ad spends which will help company to make its presence across the market. LA OPALA RG is looking at product extension and plans to sell products like water glasses, juice glasses, and Wine glasses and also bake and serve products. It will outsource the manufacture of these products and leverage on brand equity of La Opala apart from its distribution reach. This will significantly improve revenue and RoCE of LaOpala. Currently, the company caters to four different price segments - La Opala catering to the economic segment, Diva Classic, Diva Ivory and Diva Designer Collection catering to basic, medium and premium segments, respectively. Diva Classic enjoys a 35 % premium to La Opala, Diva Ivory enjoys around 15 % premium to Diva Classic and Diva Designer Collection enjoys a premium of 15 % to Diva Ivory. The current ad spends stands at about Rs. 35 Cr. It also got benefited by government’s imposition of anti-dumping duty in 2011 on cheap Chinese crockery imports. Increased capacity, new product launches and increase in the disposable income would propel the growth of LA Opala Rg and has greater prospects ahead.

Outlook and Valuation:
La Opala RG Ltd (La Opala) promoted by Mr. Sushil Jhunjhunwala and Mr. Ajit Jhunjhunwala, is engaged in manufacturing of Opalware and Crystalware products. La Opala started manufacturing Crystalware in March 1999, sourcing the exclusive right to use the technical know-how, information, data for the manufacture and sale of Crystalware in India and abroad from Doosan Glass of South Korea, a leading manufacturer of Crystalware globally. Headquartered in Kolkata, La Opala has manufacturing units in Madhupur (Jharkhand) and Sitarganj (Uttarakhand). La Opala RG Ltd has market share of 24 % in crystalware products. It offers opal glass tableware products such as plates, bowls, dinner sets, cup-saucer sets, coffee mugs, coffee cups, tea sets, soup sets, pudding and dessert sets as well as crystal-ware products comprising barware, vases, bowls and stemware under various brand names like Diva, La Opala and Soliatre Crystal. The company has also introduced the heat-resistant borosilicate range of cookware during the last fiscal year. It has two manufacturing facilities located at Madhupur, Jharkhand and Sitargunj, Uttarakhand with a combined capacity of 13,000 MTPA and has installed additional 8,000 MTPA capacity at its Sitargunj unit increasing the total capacity to 21,000 MTPA. The company is consciously building the brand and has celebrity endorsements from actor Bipasha Basu and fashion designer Manish Malhotra. Company have launched Opalware Cup-Saucer range and its commercial production has started at its Sitarganj plant from November 2015. The product was launched on 1 February 2016 under Diva brand. It is 25 % to 30 % more expensive than La Opala brand and the product has already been placed on important counters. The management believes that it won’t cannibalise La Opala brand as it has different price points. La Opala RG Ltd has launched a new category of ‘cook-n-serve’ product. The product is imported from Europe. The company has kick-started marketing campaign for the product. The gross margin of the product will be on the higher side as no overhead costs are involved. The product will be marketed under La Opala brand. La Opala RG Ltd has increased the number of distributors from 150 a few quarters ago to 170 currently. Headcount also increased because of the rise in Capacity, thereby driving up employee costs. Currently, combined capacity utilisation of its Sitarganj and Madhupur plants is 85 %. The new facility will be operating at full capacity and therefore there will be a rise in inventory level, which will be absorbed once traction occurs in Cup-saucer segment. As a major portion of the expansion is complete and there is no major expansion plan for FY17, the management believes that there will be only routine maintenance capex. It is also looking for inorganic growth via acquisition, if anything good comes by. Currently, exports account for 14 % to 15 % of sales, mainly because domestic volume has picked up significantly. The Middle East, Asia, Africa and Latin America are key areas where LORL is looking to export its new launched cup–saucer range. Export margins are 5 % to 10 % lower compared to domestic business. Modern retail currently accounts for 12 % to 13 % of sales. The Contribution of e-commerce is not significant currently. As per the management, Chinese products are priced 10 % to 15 % cheaper, domestic Indian products are priced 25 % cheaper while European products are priced 15 % to 20 % higher than LORL products. As per the management, Tier 2 and 3 cities are growing at a faster pace than metros and are good potential markets in Future. On financial side, during the period between FY11-15, the company sales witnessed a growth of 23 % CAGR, while in the same period its EBITDA grew at 33 % CAGR. This performance was due to two reasons, the company’s sales growth which was mainly from the volume growth of 14 % CAGR with the modern manufacturing facilities and increased realisation per unit at 9 % CAGR reflecting the pricing power enjoyed by the company. While on the expense side raw material witnessed a growth of 14 %, power cost grew at 11 % mainly on account of installation of cost efficient modern electric arc furnace at Sitargunj unit. Company will continue with the robust performance as the company have ramped up its capacity at Sitargunj helping the company to scale in terms of volumes of brand ‘Diva’ and also it enjoys certain pricing power in the market. Replacement of fuel furnace by electric arc furnace at madhupur plant in FY14 helped the company to better control the power cost, hence expanded its operating margins and will continue for coming years also. During Q3FY16, La Opala reported net sales of Rs. 80.48 Cr registering growth of 27 % y-o-y basis and 28 % growth q-o-q basis, its sales grew by 21 % during 9MFY16. Diva brand contributed 70 % to the total revenues during the quarter, followed by La Opala at 20 % and Solitaire at 10 %. EBIDTA Margins have improved significantly to 36 % during the quarter vis-à-vis 32.9 % in corresponding quarter last year and PAT margins have improved from 22 % to 25.1 % during the same period. Improvement in margins is on account of better product mix, reduction in raw material & fuel cost and better operating leverage. The Company enjoyed EBIDTA margin of 33.8 % during 9MFY16. The company is well positioned itself to gain the benefits from increased urbanisation, rising disposable income, improving lifestyles and home ownership. Rising urbanisation will significantly expand the market for the company’s products and also with rising disposable income leading to the higher discretionary spending would translate into increased spending on tableware products, hence benefiting the company. Improving lifestyle would induce people from traditional tableware such as stainless steel and melamine towards branded and premium products such as opalware and crystalware. These augers well for the company. At the current market price of Rs. 577.90, the stock is trading at a PE of 50.69 x FY16E and 38.52 x FY17E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 11.40 in FY16E and Rs. 15.00 in FY17E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also. 

KEY FINANCIALSFY15FY16EFY17EFY18E
SALES ( Crs) 223.33270.78344.17428.17
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)41.7463.0583.15108.17
EPS () 7.5011.4015.0019.50
PE (x)81.2053.8040.8031.30
P/BV (x)18.3014.3011.008.40
EV/EBITDA (x)51.5036.6027.5021.60
ROE (%) 22.50 26.5027.0026.90
ROCE (%)28.8033.3034.2034.30

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) -  Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold  LA OPALA RG Ltd in my any of the portfolios.


*Reader Friends, grab a fresh hot cup of coffee, turn on your net & browse on to www.bhavikkshah.blogspot.in & take out few minutes to get to know the most interesting world of investment... Till then HAPPY INVESTING, don't forget to Share !!

*Dear Reader friend, if you enjoyed this article, please do share it with your Friends and Colleagues through Facebook and Twitter, and drop in your valuable thoughts in comment box..

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible. 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON

Thursday, March 3, 2016

COAL INDIA LTD : THE BLACK BEAUTY !!!

Scrip Code: 533278 COALINDIA
CMP:  Rs. 311.00; Market Cap: Rs. 1,99,660.27 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 447.10 / Rs. 286.50
Total Shares: 631,63,64,400 shares; Promoters : 503,09,70,582 shares – 79.65 %; Total Public holding : 128,53,93,818 shares – 20.35 %; Book Value: Rs. 26.49; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs. 19.03; Dividend: 207.00 % ; P/E: 16.37 times; Ind P/E: 11.54; EV/EBITDA: 7.56 times.
Total Debt: Rs. 408.32 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 1,87,157.86 Cr. 

COAL INDIA LIMITED: Coal India Ltd was incorporated in 1973 in Kolkata, India. It was formerly known as Coal Mines Authority Limited. Coal India Ltd is a leading public sector undertaking engaged in coal mining & selling coal fines in India and is working on establishing its footprint globally through acquisitions. The company provides Washed and Beneficiated coal for use in manufacturing of hard coke for steel making and power generation. Company operates 471 mines in 21 coalfields across 8 states in India, which includes 163 open cast mines, 273 underground mines & 35 mixed mines – open & underground mines. Coal India Ltd operates through its 9 wholly owned subsidiaries, of which 1 subsidiary is engaged in exploration and feasibility study analysis. The company came with an IPO of 63,16,36,440 equity shares of Rs. 10 each at Rs. 245.00 per share to the general public in October, 2010. The purpose of the issue was to achieve the governments disinvestment target & to achieve benefits of listing on the exchanges. It got listed on November 04, 2010 at Rs. 291.00 per share making a high of Rs. 344.90 on listing day. Its subsidiaries include Eastern Coalfields Ltd, Bharat Coking Coal India Ltd, Central Coalfields Ltd, Northern Coalfields Ltd, Western Coalfields Ltd and South Eastern Coalfields Ltd. Coal India Ltd has total reserves of 64.3 billion tons and proved reserves of 52.4 billion tons, of which extractable reserves stands at 21.7 billion tons. The company offers coking coal primarily for use in steel making & metallurgical industries, and for hard coke manufacturing, semi coking coal for use as blend able coal steel making, merchant coke manufacturing, it also provides middlings used by fuel plants, brick manufacturing units, cement plants, industrial plants, as well as for power generation. Coal India Ltd coal fines/coke fines are used in industrial furnaces, as well as for domestic purposes. It serves primarily power, steel, cement, and fertilizer industries. Coal India is compared with Banpu Public Company Ltd of Thailand; Blackgold International Holdings Ltd of China; Agritrade Resources Ltd of Hongkong;  PT Sumber Energi Andalan Tbk of Indonesia, Siberian Mining Group Company Ltd & Mongolia Energy Corporation Ltd of Hong Kong.

Investment Rationale:
Coal India, a ‘Navratna’ company, is the largest coal producing company in the world, based on its raw coal production. The company is also the largest coal reserve holder in the world, based on its reserve base. Coal India Ltd is well positioned to capitalize the widening gap of demand & supply as it controls 80 % of the coal supply in India and around 66% of India’s power generation is coal based. More than 90 % of Coal India's extractable reserves are easy-to-mine, low-cost, opencast mines that produce mainly Low-quality thermal coal, primarily consumed by power utilities. Coal India has also set up high-margin coal beneficiation plants; the increased use of the high-priced e-auction platform sales, and gradually bringing its prices in line with global market prices should boost the company's margins and generate high returns. The underlying mines in India are of high quality and are of high-margin, as reflected in high double-digit returns on invested capital. Coal India is heavily regulated and the government compels Coal India to supply utilities contracted coal at below global market rates. This dynamic carries the potential to squeeze margins and returns. Recent union budget has increased clean cess from Rs. 200 per tonne on Coal to Rs. 400 per tonne and Coal India would be able to offset any increase in mining costs with commensurate price increases, and it has proved this with its track record of doing so. While transportation costs, primarily from railways, account for about 40 % of total mining costs, the majority of the Indian coal power plants still find it more economical to burn domestic coal relative to other types of energy, given its abundance and low production costs. The Indian Electricity production is expected to grow at a 6 % average annually and in tandem with gross domestic product growth. The Coal demand is expected to remain strong, as it is expected that coal to still constitute about 58 % of the power generation over next few years. This should benefit Coal India, as it holds about 80 % market share in Indian coal production. Coal India should continue to reward shareholders with increased dividends or share repurchases, as it continues to generate strong free cash flow that exceeds capital expenditure requirements. Overall, Coal India offers investors high-quality exposure to a low-cost miner with a dominant share of coal supply in the Indian market and this is where Coal India enjoys a narrow economic moat. Extensive coal reserves, long mine life, legal barriers to entry for private domestic coal producers, and low production costs coupled with low mine acquisition costs makes a relatively strong case of competitive advantage. Coal India’s strategic value lies in the fact that it cheaply meets more than half of India's energy demands, primarily the demands of power utilities. For this reason, the Indian government has ensured that Coal India holds a significant portion of the nation’s total coal reserves. Also coal India’s 18 billion tons of extractable reserves represent about 33 % of India’s total. Based on the 2015 production rate, the estimated reserve life for coal India is about 40 years. During the five-year period leading up to 2015, return on invested Capital, or ROIC, was on an average of 41 % annually. The attractive returns reflect the low-cost nature of Coal India's mines, and the low historical acquisition costs for mines and reserves. Mines and reserves are allocated by the government and current assets benefits from low-cost acquisitions from the government. The company derives about 10 % of its revenue by selling some of its coal through e-auction at higher prices, which more closely reflect underlying Supply and demand. However, about 85 % of the revenue is derived from contracted domestic coal supply, which is under the yoke of price controls. Coal India has considerable advantages over other domestic coal producers and has about 70 % market share of India’s total coal demand, and accounts for 80 % of domestic production. While private companies are allowed to mine for coal, eligibility is restricted to only iron and steel, cement, and power generation companies for their own captive use, and is prohibited under Indian national law from selling coal in the open market. This creates a significant entry barrier for private coal producers. Coal India Currently holds at least 15 years’ worth of low-cost coal reserves, even if one assumes 10 % average annual production growth. This assumption appears aggressive against the comparable trailing 10-year figure of 4.5 %, and low cost reserve depletion will likely to take much longer than 15 years once slower production growth and probable reserve replacement are taken into account. The government’s stance encouraging competition is unlikely to dilute Coal India’s returns below its cost of capital in the medium-term, since competitors will need to bid for generally inferior quality coal blocks at a higher price than Coal India has acquired its reserves. This will dictate poorer margins and returns for competitors. In the past, initiatives such as this allocating coal blocks to private players for captive consumption have failed to deliver the intended results, especially given land acquisition, forest and environment clearances, lack of business expertise, and various other issues. Coal India's primary focus is the domestic Indian market, especially power utilities, which account for more than 70 % of its sales volume. Sales to power utilities are around 50 % below international prices, yet Coal India still earns attractive returns, a testament to its cost advantage. During the next five years, it is projected that Coal India’s ROIC to average 31 % annually, consistent with its trailing four-year average of 41 %.  Additional high-margin avenues such as e-auctioning of coal, and selling washed and beneficiated coal, to continue to help Coal India sustain its profitability. Coal power plants continue to be the cheapest and Coal amongst the dominant source of power to meet the rising demand for electricity; low-cost, opencast mines should help to weather any downturn in coal prices and help in sustaining ROICs of COAL INDIA above the cost of capital. COAL INDIA’s rich cash pile, coupled with lower Capital expenditure, could result in higher Shareholder returns in the form buybacks or bonus Issue in coming few years.

Outlook and Valuation:
Coal India (CIL) is largest coal producing company. CIL is well positioned to capitalize the widening gap of demand & supply as it controls 80 % of the coal supply in India and around 66 % of India’s power generation is coal based. More than 90 % of Coal India's extractable reserves are easy-to-mine, low-cost, opencast mines that produce mainly Low-quality thermal coal, primarily consumed by power utilities. The recent union budget 2016 proposed a Clean Environment cess of Rs. 400 per ton on coal instead of Rs. 200 per ton. This could increase the coal prices from COAL INDIA by 20 %. The average notified coal price from Coal India is Rs. 1000 to Rs. 1100 per ton and increase of Rs. 200 per ton translates into almost 20 % increase in prices. COAL India sells almost one third of its coal output in grades 10 to 13 and the same is priced at about Rs. 700 and Rs. 800 per ton respectively. The higher grade coal prices goes up to Rs. 3500 a ton from Coal India in which impact would be less, but would have negative impact in terms of power tariff as this additional levy will jack up the coal prices by as high as 25 % and power tariff will be more for south India power plants that procure mostly low grade coal which is priced at Rs. 700 – Rs. 800 per ton from Mahanadi Coalfields. Coal India operates in narrow moat situation whereas its peers operates in wide moat, Coal India enjoys competitive advantage from the fact that cost of replacing reserves in coming days will trend higher than historical costs, and future mines are also likely to have higher mining costs coupled with the need to dig deeper compared to very attractive mostly opencast mining at present. The current estimated reserve life with respect to growth in coal demand is short of the 20 years, and one can be confident that Coal India will still generate excess returns. Also, the government intends to gradually open the market to free pricing in the future years, it is unlikely the generous mine acquisition terms from the government will continue longer-term. Therefore, Coal India warrants a narrow economic moat versus wide, as new mines will likely deliver less attractive returns on invested capital. Its proven from the past on COAL’s ability, that it passes on the impact of escalation in cost associated with hike in wages of non-executive employees and it is believed that 6 % price hike in power segment and higher scale of 10 % + increase in volumes would off-set the impact well. With smart rail logistics management, improved turnaround time aided by addition of sidings and the gradual addition of rakes by railways helped Coal India’s volumes to grow by 10 % YoY in Apr-Jan’16. The growth trajectory would be sustained in the range of 9 % + for next couple of years on the back of lower congestion and improved availability of rakes. The trajectory would ascend to 10 %, driven by commissioning of Eastern DFC, 3rd line between Howrah-Wardha and Talcher-Cuttack, Jharsuguda-Barpali Rail link, Bhupdeopur-Korba rail link and the high loading capacity wagons sourced by Coal India. Total off-take for the quarter grew by 13.5 % YoY to 138 million tonnes. Fule Supply Agreement (FSA) volumes were largely flat at 117 mn tons which are 85 % of sales and E-auction sales were up 171 % YoY to 15 mn. E-auction sales were abnormally low last year at 6 mn tonnes due to shift of E-auction volumes to FSA due to recommendations from the Ministry of Coal to fulfill the requirements of power sector first at regulated price and consider them as priority over E-auction. Now, with overall demand being low, E-auction volume has again inched up to 15 mn tonnes level. FSA realisations decreased 1.6 % YoY to Rs. 1277 per ton due to change in grade mix. E-auction realization declined 40.4 % YoY but was up 4.5 % QoQ. Coal India may find it difficult to increase the price of e-auction coal as it is available from overseas at competitive prices. Also, acceptability of higher grade coal of Coal India is low because of its high price vis-à-vis market price. Coal India’s EBITDA margins increased by 1.27 % to 29.6 % and EBITDA grew by 10.0 % to Rs. 6,200 Cr led by cost control. Employee cost and Raw material cost as a % of sales declined 3.39 % YoY and 1.30 % YoY to 37.5 % and 6.2 % respectively. Its Contractual costs increased 2.64 % to 15.1 % of sales. Coal India Ltd currently requires 234 rakes per day whereas it is getting 220 rakes per day. Out of the 3 critical railway lines, Chattisgarh and Orissa railway lines are likely to come up by June 2016 and June 2017 respectively whereas Tori-Shivpur line will be ready by 2018. GoI's target of 910 mn tonne coal production from Coal India by 2020 is achievable only if required infrastructure for evacuation is set up. Coal India, in coordination with the Central & State governments, is successfully resolving key issues in coal production which can be seen from the growth of 6.9 % & 9.0 % in coal production in FY15 & YTD respectively a average. 1.8 % CAGR between FY11-14. While these measures will result in top line growth, Coal India Ltd must keep its cost in check to maintain profitability. It is expected that in FY17 Coal production could be of 577 million tonnes which would be a CAGR growth of 8 % from FY15 to FY17E & Offtake could be 598 mn tonnes a growth CAGR of 10.7 %during the same period. It is expected that the topline & bottomline of Coal India could grow at a CAGR of 7.8 % & 9.9 % between FY15-17E. And driven by the attractive valuation of 7 times the EV/EBITDA the stock looks strong with rich dividend yield. At the current market price of Rs. 311.00, the stock is trading at a PE of 13.77 x FY16E and 11.85 x FY17E respectively. The company can post Earnings per share (EPS) of Rs. 22.58 in FY16E and Rs. 26.23 in FY17E. It is expected that the company’s surplus scenario is likely to continue for the next three years keeping its growth story in the coming quarters also. 

KEY FINANCIALSFY14FY15FY16EFY17E
SALES ( Crs)70,607.5074,120.1077,053.8086,064.20
NET PROFIT (₹ Cr)15,099.0013,720.4014,260.8016,570.20 
EPS ()23.9021.7222.5826.23
PE (x)12.0416.6813.8211.89
P/BV (x)4.295.675.18 5.29 
EV/EBITDA (x)5.207.376.225.22
ROE (%)33.2333.1636.3944.03
ROCE (%)32.8132.9536.2944.13

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) -  Click Here

*As the author of this blog I disclose that I do not hold COAL INDIA Ltd in my any of the portfolios.


*Reader Friends, grab a fresh hot cup of coffee, turn on your net & browse on to www.bhavikkshah.blogspot.in & take out few minutes to get to know the most interesting world of investment... Till then HAPPY INVESTING, don't forget to Share !!

*Dear Reader friend, if you enjoyed this article, please do share it with your Friends and Colleagues through Facebook and Twitter, and drop in your valuable thoughts in comment box..

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

READ HERE TO KNOW MORE ON LONG TERM INVESTING - CLICK HERE

VIEW THE POWER POINT PRESENTATION ON

Tuesday, March 1, 2016

UNION BUDGET 2016-17 : HIGHLIGHTS !!!

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT ESTIMATED TO GROW AT at 7.60 % for FY15 - 16

AT CURRENT PRICES THE ADVANCE GDP ESTIMATE OF 2015 - 16 IS  Rs. 113,51,000 LAKHS CR AND AT 2011-12 PRICES ITS AT Rs. 105,52,000 LAKHS CR. 

FY16 FISCAL DEFICIT AT Rs. 5,32,281 CR.
FY16 TOTAL SUBSIDES AT Rs. 2,50,000 CR.
FY15 FERTILIZER SUBSIDIES AT  Rs. 72,968 CR.
FY16 FOOD SUBSIDIES AT  Rs. 1,35,000 CR.
FY16 OIL-PETROLUEM SUBSIDIES AT Rs. 26,900 CR.
FY16 NET MARKET LOANS OF Rs. 4,25,000 CR. 

THE CENTER'S EXPENDITURE 2015-16 IS PROJECTED AT Rs. 19,78,060 Cr.

INFLOWS (Rs. in Crs)                           
AMOUNT
CORPORATE TAX
4,93,923
INCOME TAX
3,53,174
CUSTOMS DUTY
2,30,000
EXCISE DUTY
3,18,670
SERVICE TAX
2,31,000
TAX OF UNION TERRITORY          
4,791
GROSS TAX REVENUES
16,30,888 

NON TAX RECEIPTS (Rs. in Crs)       
AMOUNT
INTEREST RECEIPTS
29,620
DIVIDENDS & PROFITS
1,23,780
EXTERNAL GRANTS
2,862
OTHER NON TAX RECEIPTS
1,65,320
RECEIPTS OF UNION TERRITORY
1,339
           TOTAL
3,22,921

DEBT RECEIPT (Rs. in Crs)
5,20,709 

NON DEBT CAPITAL RECEIPTS (Rs. in Crs) 
AMOUNT 
RECOVERY OF LOANS & ADVANCES
10,634
MISC. CAPITAL RECEIPTS
56,500
       TOTAL
67,134

* Out of the Tax Receipts the Center has to keep aside Rs. 25,000 cr for bank recapitalisation

OUT FLOW (Rs. in Cr)
AMOUNT
PLAN EXPENDITURE
5,50,010
NON PLAN EXPENDITURE
14,28,030 
DEFENCE
1,62,759
SUBSIDIES
2,50,433
GRANTS TO STATES & UTs
1,18,356 
INTEREST PAYMENTS
4,92,670
OTHER GENERAL SERVICES
35,003 
ECONOMIC SERVICES
34,266
Central Assistance to States & Union 
2,27,551
CENTRAL PLAN 
1,76,076 
LOANS TO STATE & UT GOVT
81 

SOME MORE POINTS FROM BUDGET  

® Govt. committed to achieve Fiscal deficit target of 3.9 % of GDP for FY16 followed by fiscal deficit of 3.5 % for 2017.

® Direct tax proposals results in Revenue loss of Rs. 1,060 Cr and the indirect tax proposal results in gain of Rs. 20,670 Cr.

® Proposes to imply additional 10 % tax on gross amount of dividend received by the recipients that is individuals, HUF’s, and firms receiving dividend in excess of Rs. 10 lakhs per annum. 

® Proposes a 15 % surcharge on income above Rs. 1 Cr and proposes to raise the ceiling of tax rebate under section 87A from Rs. 2,000 to Rs. 5,000 for individuals with income not more than Rs. 5 lakhs.

® Individuals who do not own any house and also do not get any Rent allowance from employer gets deduction of Rs. 24,000 per annum from their income, hence this limit increased u/s 80GG from Rs. 24,000 per annum to Rs. 60,000 per annum. For first home buyers, additional exemption of Rs. 50,000 for housing loans up to Rs. 35 lakh, provided the cost of house is not above Rs. 50 lakh.

® Proposes to levy infrastructure cess at the rate of 1 % on purchase of luxury cars exceeding value of Rs. 10 lakh and 1 % on purchase of goods and services in cash exceeding Rs. 2 lakh. Farmers and notified class of persons will have an option of giving a form by which TCS will not be charged. To levy 2.5 % on diesel cars of certain capacity and 4 % on other higher engine capacity vehicles and SUV’s.

® Proposes to give 100 % deduction for profits to an undertaking from a housing project for flats up to 30 sq. meters (322.917 sq.fts) in four metros cities and 60 sq. meters (645.835 sq.ft.) in other cities approved during June 2016 to March 2019 and is completed within 3 years of approval. Minimum Alternate Tax will apply to these undertaking. Service tax exemption to houses up to 60 square meters built under any scheme of the Central or State government including PPP schemes.     

® Presumptive taxation scheme u/s 44AD applicable to small & medium enterprises i.e. a non-corporate business with turnover or gross receipts not exceeding Rs. 1 Cr, at present these are free from maintain details books of accounts and getting audit done, hence are proposed to increase the turnover limit to Rs. 2 Cr, which would be paying 8 % tax on presumptive income. Presumptive taxation scheme on professionals with gross receipts up to Rs. 50 lakh with presumption of profit being 50 % of the gross receipts.

® MAT will be applicable for all the start ups that qualify for 100 % tax exemption. 100 % FDI in marketing of food products produced and marketed in India. Department of Disinvestment will be renamed as Department of Investment and Public Asset management. 

® The allocation of Rs. 1,000 Cr for new EPF scheme. Govt. will pay EPF contribution of 8.33 % for all new employees for first three years. Proposes to allocate Rs. 38,500 Cr for Mahtma Gandhi MGNREGA for 2016-17. Swacch Bharat Abhiyan to get allocation of Rs. 9,500 Cr. LPG connection to be provided under the name of the women members of the family and Rs. 2,000 Cr is allocated for 5 years for BPL families.

® Proposes to allocate Rs. 87,765 Cr to rural sector. And Rs. 2.87 lakh cr will be given as Grant in Aid to gram panchayats and Municipalities. A sum of Rs. 38,500 Cr allocated for MGNREGS. 100 % rural electrification by 1St may 2018. Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchai Yojana will bring 28.5 lakh hectares under irrigation. A dedicated Long Term Irrigation Fund will be created in NABARD with an initial corpus of about Rs. 20,000 Cr. Proposes to allocate Rs. 35,984 Cr for agriculture and famers welfare.

® Proposes to allocate Rs. 5,500 Cr under Prime Minister Bima Yojana. Also proposes to reduce the loan burden on farmers a provision of Rs. 15,000 cr has been made in BE 206-17 towards interest subvention. And Rs. 850 cr allocated for 4 dairying projects. Proposes to allocate Rs. 19,000 cr under Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana and will connect remaining 65,000 eligible habitations by 2019.

® Proposes to allocate Rs. 1,51,581 Cr for social sector including education & health care. Rs. 2,000 Cr allocated for initial cost of LPG connection to BPL families. New health protection scheme will provide health cover upto Rs. 1 lakh per family, for senior citizens an additional top up package up to Rs. 30,000 will be provided. Proposes to build digital repository for all school leaving certificates and diplomas and Rs. 1,000 Cr for higher education financing being allocated. Proposes to allocate Rs. 500 Cr for promoting entrepreneurship among ST/SC and Rs. 1,700 Cr for 1500 multi skill development centres.

® Proposes to allocate Rs. 3,000 Cr for nuclear power generation. Proposes to spend Rs. 27,000 Cr on roadways. Total allocation for road construction including PMGSY is Rs. 97,000 Cr and Rs. 55,000 Cr for roads & Highways development. Total outlay for infrastructure in budget 2016 now stands at Rs. 2,21,246 Cr.

® Proposes to impose Cess called Krishi Kalyan Cess @ 0.50 % on all taxable services, proceeds of which would be exclusively used for financing initiatives relating to improvement of agriculture and welfare of farmers. The cess will come to force with effect from 1 june 2016. Input tax credit of this cess will be available for payment of this cess. Shops to be given option to remain open all seven days in week across markets.

® New derivative products will be developed by SEBI in commodity Derivate market. Rate of Securities transaction tax in case of Options is proposed to be increased from 0.017 % to 0.05 %. Proposed that a person making payment to NRI who does not permanent establishment exceeding in aggregate Rs. 1 lakh a yr as consideration for online advertisement will withhold tax at 6 % of gross amount paid as Equalization levy. The levy will only apply to B2B transaction.

® Proposes to change the excise duty on branded readymade garments and made up articles of textiles with retail sales price of Rs. 1,000 and above from NIL without input tax credit or 6 %/ 12.5 % with input tax credit to 2 % without input tax credit or 12.5 % with input tax credit.

®  Proposes to impose an excise duty of 1 % without input tax credit or 12.5 % with input tax credit on articles of jewellery (excluding silver jewellery- other than studded with diamonds an some other precious stones) with higher exemption and eligibility limits of Rs. 6 Cr & 12 Cr respectively.

®    Proposes to rename the Clean Energy Cess levied on Coal, lignite and peat as Clean Environment Cess and simultaneously increase its rate from Rs. 200 per tonne to Rs. 400 per tonne. To reduce the consumption of tobacco products, excise duty on various tobacco products other than beedi by 10 % to 15 %.

®    NRI without PAN are currently subjected to higher rate of TDS. It is proposed to amend the relevant provision to provide that on furnishing of alternative documents the higher rate will not apply.

® Investment limit for foreign entities in Indian stock exchanges will be enhanced from 5 & to 15 % on par with domestic institutions. This will enhance global competitiveness of Indian Stock exchanges and accelerate adoption of best in class technology and global market practices. Also the period for getting benefit of long term capital gain regime in case of Un-listed companies is proposed to be reduced from three years to two years. GAAR would be implemented from 1 April 2017. To promote use of refrigerated containers, it is proposed to reduce the basic custom duty to 5 % and excise duty to 6 %. Banks to be recapitalize with Rs. 25,000 Cr. General Insurance companies will be listed on Stock Exchanges.       

®    Proposes to provide complete pass through of income tax to securitization trusts including trusts of Asset Reconstruction Companies. The income will be taxed in the hands of the investors instead of trusts. However the trust will be liable to deduct tax at source.

®     Plan and Non-plan classification to be done away with from 2017-2018.  Will phase out the deduction under Income Tax, Accelerated depreciation wherever provided in IT Act will be limited to maximum 40 % from 1 April 2020. The weighted deduction under section 35CCD for skill development will continue up to 1 April 2020. Benefit of section 10 AA to new SEZ units will be available to those units which commence activity before 31 March 2020.

®    New manufacturing companies incorporated on or after 1 march 2016 to be given an option to be taxed at 25 % + surcharge and cess provided they do not claim profit linked or investment linked deductions and do not avail of investment allowance and accelerated depreciation. Lower corporate tax rate for next fiscal year for SME i.e Companies with turnover not exceeding Rs. 5 Cr in the financial year ending March 2015 to 29 % + surcharge and cess.

®    Proposes a 100 % deduction of profits for 3 out of 5 years for start-ups setup during April 2016 to March 2019. MAT will apply to such cases. A 10 % of tax on income from worldwide exploitation of patents developed and registered in India by a resident.


®    Non-banking financial companies shall be eligible for deduction to the extent of 5 % of its income in respect of provision for bad and doubtful debts. 

As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on every purchase(Why Strict stop loss of 8 % ?) -  Click Here




*Reader Friends, grab a fresh hot cup of coffee, turn on your net & browse on to www.bhavikkshah.blogspot.in & take out few minutes to get to know the most interesting world of investment... Till then HAPPY INVESTING, don't forget to Share !!

*Dear Reader friend, if you enjoyed this article, please do share it with your Friends and Colleagues through Facebook and Twitter, and drop in your valuable thoughts in comment box..

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer
This is a personal blog and presents entirely personal views on stock market. Any statement made in this blog is merely an expression of my personal opinion. These informations are sourced from publicly available data. By using/reading this blog you agree to (i) not to take any investment decision or any other important decisions based on any information, opinion, suggestion, expressions or experience mentioned or presented in this blog (ii) Any investment decisions taken if any would be his/hers sole responsibility. (iii) the author of this blog is not responsible.  
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indian Bloggers


Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

Share

Why you should have a Stop Loss of 8 % ? Click to know more. Author is also on Facebook and Click here for SHORT STORIES

X