TATA MOTORS DVR LTD: A BEST DIVIDEND YIELD STOCK , A MUST BUY !!!

Scrip Code: 570001 / TATAMTRDVR

CMP:  Rs. 135.10; Buy at Rs.125-130 levels.
Short term Target: Rs. 151, 6 month Target – Rs. 177; STOP LOSS – Rs. 120.00; Market Cap: Rs. 6,510.91 Cr; 52 Week High/Low: Rs. 189.90 / Rs. 79.40

Total Shares: 48,19,33,115 shares(17.90% of Sh Capital); Promoters : 1,86,00,448 shares –3.86 %; Total Public holding : 46,33,32,667 shares – 96.14 %; Book Value: Rs. 62.74*; Face Value: Rs. 2.00; EPS: Rs. 3.89*; Div: 205 %* ; P/E: 57.71* times; Ind. P/E: 38.45*; EV/EBITDA: 18.27*.

Total Debt: 2,845.87 Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 9,356.77 Cr.

*Being DVR a class of equity capital, Tata Motors financials are used.

TATA MOTORS LIMITED: Tata Motors was founded in 1945 and was formerly known as Tata Engineering and Locomotive Company Limited (TELCO) and changed its name to Tata Motors Limited in 2003. The company is leading manufacturer of commercial & passenger vehicles in India and is among the top 3 passenger car manufacturers in India and the world's fourth largest truck manufacturer & world's Second largest bus manufacturer. Through its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in engineering and automotive solutions, construction equipment manufacturing, automotive vehicle components manufacturing and supply chain activities, machine tools & factory automation solutions. The company's Automotive operations include all activities relating to development, design; manufacture, assembly and sale of vehicles including all financing thereof, as well as sale of related parts and accessories. Tata Motors has operations in UK, South Korea, Thailand & Spain. The company has many subsidiaries but the most prominent among these is Jaguar-Land Rover (JLR) (a British car manufacturing company) which it acquired in 2008 at $230 Cr and turned it from a loss making company to a profit making company. JLR contributes 54 % to the company’s revenues. The company’s product portfolio ranges from the ultra low cost car Nano to the luxurious cars from JLR, from its ground breaking invention of the light commercial vehicle (LCV) the Ace to the international Prima Truck range. TATA MOTORS is compared to Mazda Motor Corporation, Suzuki Motor Corporation and Mitsubishi Corporation.

Investment Rationale:

Tata Motors is India's largest automobile company, last quarter JLR reported all-time high monthly volumes with both Land Rover and Jaguar rising 54 % and 9 %, respectively. This was been due to geographical demand fuelled by emerging markets like China, Brazil along with the developed markets of the US. In this fourth quarter, Tata Motors posted 16.7 % YoY growth in revenue in the automotive segment, whereas JLR reported a top-line growth of 65.7 % YoY. This led to an overall 44.3 % YoY growth in the company’s consolidated top-line to Rs. 50,900 Cr, EBITDA margin at JLR were at 14.6 %, the consolidated EBITDA margin improved by 30 basis points YoY to 14.1 %. EBITDA grew at Rs. 7,170 Cr. TATA MOTOR was accounted for a tax credit of Rs. 1,820 Cr on account of credit for carry forward of losses from JLR account. Profit After Tax grew by 86.1 % YoY to Rs. 4590 Cr. On Standalone basis, Tata Motors posted 14.4 % YoY growth in its top-line at Rs. 16,390 Cr. Its overall volumes grew by 18.4 % YoY, whereas average realization/vehicle declined by 3.3 % YoY on account inferior product mix skewed towards passenger cars. EBITDA margins on standalone basis improved by 0.60 % YoY to 9.6 % on account of tight control over other expenditure. As a result, EBITDA grew to Rs. 1560 Cr YoY. Profit After Tax on standalone basis grew by 22.8 % YoY at Rs. 780 Cr. The higher than expected standalone profit partially compensated for the disappointment at JLR. JLR reported 51.5 % YoY growth in revenue at ₤414.4 Cr, mainly led by a 48.2 % YoY improvement in volumes. Average realisation/vehicle declined by 2.3 % QoQ on account of inferior product mix skewed towards ‘Evoque’. Other expenses increased by ₤9 Cr on account of investment in new capacities. As an result, EBITDA margins declined by 2.40 % QoQ at 14.6 %. JLR PAT stood at ₤42.2 Cr as against ₤44 Cr in Q3FY12. This, in experts view, a big disappointment given that the volumes for the quarter were up by 11 % QoQ and currency impact was minimal. Management expects JLR volumes to be driven by launch of new Evoque in new markets, demand for newly launch Jaguar’s Model Year (MY) 2012 XF and ramp up operations in China. In Q2 FY12, Evoque was only launch in UK, Europe and US. Evoque has received buoyant response and has an order book of around 20,000 units after catering 8,000 units in Q2 FY12. It is in midst of launching Evoque in China and other developing markets, thus resulting in incremental Evoque volumes in H2 FY12. The company has started to ramp up the distribution network in China to 100 dealers by FY12E and is in advance talks with local partner for production in China. The company has largely resolved issues related to engine constraints with Ford. JLR is setting up a new engine manufacturing facility in UK, which entails an investment of £35.5 Cr. Net Automotive debt to equity stands at 0.3:1. JLR is likely to come up with two new launches i.e. Jaguar XF station wagon in Q3FY13E and new Range Rover platform in Q4FY13E. The company increased its guidance for a capex and R&D spends at JLR to ₤200 Cr as against the earlier guidance of ₤150 Cr. JLR completed an unsecured Revolving Facility totaling ₤71 Cr for 3-5 years thereby strengthening its liquidity position. Management sounded cautiously optimistic regarding volume growth at JLR in Europe and UK.

Outlook and Valuation:

The long term investors can buy the TATAMTRDVR in view of attractive valuation. The long term holders of ordinary shares of Tata Motor can switch to TATAMTRDVR. The Tata Motors DVR shares carry 1/10th of voting rights and shareholders are entitled to a 5 % higher dividend than ordinary shares in lieu of surrendering voting rights. Tata Motors DVR trades at a discount of 45.2 %. The average discount for the DVR to Tata Motors ordinary share was 36.7 % since inception. The average discount for the DVR share over the last two years has been 40.5 %. At the Current Market Price of Rs. 135.10, the DVR is trading at a 40 % discount to Tata Motors’ ordinary share which is at Rs. 224.55. At the current levels, the probability of the discount narrowing is higher. On Some Of The Parts basis the value of standalone business comes at 9x FY13 adjusted EPS of Rs. 5 to arrive at Rs. 45 and for JLR it comes at 5x EV/EBITDA to arrive at Rs. 183 and the valued of the investment book of the company comes at 0.2x BV for unquoted investments and market value of quoted investments to reach Rs. 9/share and arrived at our target price of Rs. 275. One can BUY TATA MOTOR DVR at all lower levels for better returns. It has outperformed the broader market by 6 % on an annual basis. Globally DVRs trends to trade between 10 % - 15 % discounts to its Equity shares, TTM DVR currently trades at 40 % discount to its Equity shares. One should buy TTM DVR at 40 % - 45 % discount to its EQ SH & Sell when DVR arrives at 10 % - 15 % discount to its EQ SH. TTM DVR can be a good ‘BUY’ with a target price of Rs.151 for the short term. Expect discount to the Equity shares reduce to at least 30 % over next one year given the attractive valuations and increasing free float. For the shorter term it can be a good BUY, with a price target of Rs. 151.

SOTP valuation (FY2013E)

BUSINESS SUBSIDIARY	Value per Share(Rs.)
Core Business (9x FY13E Stand.EPS)	45
JLR (5.0x FY13E EV/EBITDA)	183.00
Tata Daewoo	2.00
Tata Motor Finance	3.00
Tata Technologies	4.00
TML Drivelines	4.00
Value of Other Subsidiaries	14.00
Value Post Discount (20 % Holding discount)	11.00
Value of Investments (0.2 x BV of Investments)	9.00
TOTAL VALUE PER SHARE	275.00

KEY FINANCIALS	FY11	FY12E	FY13E	FY14E
SALES (Rs. Crs)	1,22,127.90	1,65,654.50	1,89,786.00	2,07,532.00
NET PROFIT (Rs. Crs)	9,042.50	12,522.40	13,811.70	14,699.00
EPS (Rs.)	28.40	37.50	41.10	44.10
PE (x)	9.70	7.30	6.70	6.30
P/BV (x)	4.60	2.80	2.80	2.70
EV/EBITDA (x)	6.20	4.30	4.20	3.70
ROE (%)	66.10	47.90	41.80	43.80
ROCE (%)	22.10	23.50	21.40	22.50

I would buy TATA MOTOR LTD DVR with a price target of Rs. 151 for Medium to Long term and Rs. 177 for the Short term players. As I always say, I am a long term believer in markets & I do respect the markets and will keep a strict stop loss of 8 % or Rs. 120.00 on every purchase.
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TATA MOTOR DVR : Buy for Dividend yields.

Scrip Code: 570001 / TATAMTRDVR

CMP:  Rs. 696.20; Buy at Rs.670 – Rs.685
Price Target: Short term Rs.725;Long term Rs. 920.
Market Cap: Rs. 6,707.30 Cr.
52 Week High/Low: Rs.940 / Rs. 407.35

Total Shares: 9,63,41,706  shares(15.2% of Sh Capital); Promoters : 1,84,01,430 shares – 19.10 %; Total Public holding : 7,79,40,276 shares – 80.89 %;

Book Value: Rs. 237.37*; Face Value: Rs. 10.00; EPS: Rs.28.99*; Div:150* %.

P/E: 23.80* times; Ind P/E: 32.39*; EV/EBITDA: 18.68*
Total Debt: Rs. 3,163.18* Cr; Enterprise Value: Rs. 1857.52* Cr

*Being DVR a class of equity capital, Tata motors financials are used.

Tata Motors, founded in 1945, was formerly known as Tata Engineering And Locomotive Company Limited changed its name to Tata Motors Limited in 2003. The company is leading manufacturer of commercial & passenger vehicles in India is among the top 3 passenger car manufacturers in India, the world's 4^th largest truck manufacturer, and world's 2^nd largest bus manufacturer. Tata Motors has operations in UK, South Korea, Thailand & Spain. The company has many subsidiaries but the most prominent among these is Jaguar-Land Rover (JLR) (a British car manufacturing company) which it acquired in 2008 at $230 Cr and turned it from a loss making company to a profit making company. JLR contributes 54% to the company’s revenues. The company’s product portfolio ranges from the ultra low cost car Nano to the luxurious cars from JLR, from its ground breaking invention of the light commercial vehicle (LCV) the Ace to the international Prima Truck range.

Experienced and Efficient Management: Tata Motors is a part of the Tata group which is headed by Mr. Ratan Tata, chairman of Tata Motors Ltd. Also the management includes Carl Peter Foster who has a vast experience. He headed the BMW Group for 20 years.

Strong Consolidated Growth: Tata motors had acquired Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford Motor Co. During acquisition the unit was a loss making one. But the management at Tata motors was capable enough to achieve a turn around and not just TTM stopped losses but converted it to a profitable venture. Today around 54% of Tata Motors Revenues comes from JLR.

Good Product Mix: Tata motors had begun as a commercial vehicle manufacturer. A decade ago, Tata Motors had begun to manufacturer passenger vehicles. Today Tata Motors is one of the leading automobile makers in the world. It is India’s largest Automobile manufacturer. Its passenger cars range from the worlds cheapest car, the Nano, to its newest cross over the Aria to the luxurious cars from JLR. The company has a vast portfolio of commercial vehicles ranging from its super successful LCV, the Ace, to the its sturdy tractor trailers, haulage vehicles, buses, hybrid buses, etc to the Prima trucks built for sale in international markets.

My view on Valuations: The performance of the company increased considerably during the Q2FY11 and Q3FY11 and the outlook for Tata Motors continues to be positive, given the robust growth in the economy, increase in sales and profitability of JLR, improvement in industrial and mining sector, completion of ramp-up at its Sanand plant for Nano. The only concern is the supply constraint it faces from Ford for engines and from other suppliers for raw material. At the CMP of Rs. 696.20, Tata Motors DVR is trading at 5x its FY11E EPS of Rs.138.4 and at 4.37x its FY12E EPS of Rs.159.2.

Globally DVRS trade between 10% - 15% discount to its Equity shares, TTM DVR currently trades at 44 % discount to its Equity shares. One should buy TTM DVR at 40% - 45% discount to its EQ SH & Sell when DVR is 10% - 15% discount to its EQ SH. TTM DVR can be a good “BUY” with a target price of Rs.900, with an upside of 30% in the long term.

Expect discount to the Equity Shares reduce (to at least 30%) over the next one year given the attractive valuations and increasing free float. For the shorter term it can be a good BUY, with a price target of Rs.725.00

KEY FINANCIALS	2010	2011E	2012E
SALES (Rs. crs)	92,519.3	1,15,576.8	1,30,024
NET PROFIT (Rs. crs)	1,526	8,680.4	9,986.6
EPS (Rs.)	44.1	138.4	159.2
PE (x)	28.9	5.0	4.4
P/BV (x)	9.1	2.3	1.6
EV/EBITDA	10.1	3.9	3.5

I maintain my BUY status on TATA MOTOR DVR with the price target of Rs. 725 in short term. For long term my target is of Rs.920. As I always say do respect the market and keep a strict stop loss of 8 % on your every purchase.
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Always Buy DVR shares (Differential Voting Rights) !!!

DVR shares are Differential Voting Rights – which is just like ordinary Equity shares, paying dividends as ordinary equity shares, has voting rights. But the difference is that these DVR shares carry lower Voting Rights and higher Dividends.

The class “A” DVR shares carries 1/10th of voting rights i.e. 1 voting Right for every 10 DVR shares held. The class “A” DVR shares offers 5% more Dividend than ordinary equity shares.

Because of such reasons, DVR shares normally trade at 10% to 15 % discount to the ordinary equity shares of that company. The Companies Act allows companies to issue differential voting rights upto 25 % of its total issued share capital with the conditions that it should have distributable profits & no default in filing annual returns in past 3 years.

We hold Equity shares in small quantities and we do not attend Annual General Meetings of the companies, also our vote does not have any importance or relevance to these companies. So, in order to let go my voting rights (which I normally don’t use) I get paid with 5% extra dividends, my return on investment goes up, Dividend yield goes up, all that by just letting away my voting rights go, that’s it….. 

Globally DVRS trade between 10 % - 15 % discount to its Equity shares depending upon the extra dividend offered to DVR, for e.g. If a company's equity shares trades at Rs.100/sh and dividend declared is Rs.10/sh and its DVR holders gets Rs.10.50 as dividend (Rs. 0.50 extra because he let go its voting rights) means that its DVR should be trading at Rs.89.50/share. According to Indian Company Law, 1) the shares with Differential Rights shall not exceed 26 % of the total post-issue paid up Equity Share Capital including equity shares with differential rights issued at any point of time (voting rights ratio should range from 2:1 to 10:1 only), 2) Issuing company to have consistent track record of distributable profits for last 3 years. But since the Indian audiences are not aware about this beautiful instrument, DVR trends to trade at 40 % - 50 % discount to its Equity shares. One should buy DVR at 40 % - 45 % discount to its EQ SH & Sell when DVR comes near to 10 % - 15 % discount to its EQ SH.

So, friends it makes sense to buy DVR shares. 

Tata Motors DVR – The first company to come with an DVR, Tata Motors DVR trades at 30 % discount to its equity shares market price. Normally it should trade at 10% - 15% discount to its equity shares. Globally DVR’s are traded at 10% discount to its equity shares, but see the ignorance of us Indian investors who buys the shares which have No Fundamentals but fails to understand such a beautiful instrument. They feel that DVR’s are complicated & offers lower rights, but ideally he should buy such shares if the company offering DVR share is good in fundamentals.

TATA MOTORS offered 6.42 Cr DVR share at Rs.295 which was at 10% discount to its equity shares price of Rs.330 on Nov 5th 2008 to raise Rs.1896.85 Cr with 1 voting right for every 10 DVR shares held along with 5 % extra dividend over ordinary shares. The class “A” DVR share is 15.8% of total share capital of Tata Motors. Tata Sons holds 34.25% stake.
After Tata Motor , Pantaloon Retail India & Gujarat NRE Coke have also issued its DVR shares.
Pantaloon Retail India issued 1 bonus share with different voting & dividend rights for every 10 held in 2008. the new class is called "B" shares with 5% more dividend than ordinary shares & would have 1 vote for 10 shares held.
Gujarat NRE Coke issued DVR in May 2010 as bonus shares in ratio of 1 DVR bonus shares for every 10 Equity shares held, here the DVR bonus shares would hold 1 voting right to 100 shares held.  

DVR's	Tata Motors DVR	Guj. NRE Coke DVR	Pantaloon Retail DVR
Total number of DVR Shares	6,41,76,680	5,07,14,292	1,59,29,152
Promoters Holdings	2,32,64,396 - 36.26 %	2,41,01,468 - 47.51 %	74,07,693 - 46.53 %
Number of Shares Holders	16,700	1,53,382	18,998

SOME BRIEF ABOUT COMPANIES ISSUED DVR's GLOBALLY

COMPANY	Country	Voting rights (ord)	Per Share DVR	Extra Dividend	Business
BMW	Germany	1	N0	€ 0.02	Automobile
Bombardier	Canada	10	1	$0.001563	Aircraft & Train Mfg
Brown Forman	US	1	No	---	Alcohol
Comcast Corp	US	1	No	---	Media
Fiat	Italy	1	Sp.cases	€ 0.31	Automobile
Forest City	US	10	1	----	Real Estate
Haverty Furniture	US	10	1	5 % of FV	Others
Hubbell Inc	US	20	1	----	Electrical s.
Lennar Corp	US	10	1	----	Real Estate
News Corp	US	10	1	----	Media
Samsung Electronics	Korea	1	No	----	Electronics
Telephone & Data System	US	1	No	----	Telecom
Viacom	US	1	No	----	Media
Volkswagen	Germany	1	No	€ 0.06	Automobile
Guj.NRE Coke	India	1	1/10th	----	Metals
Tata Motors	India	1	1/10th	Re 0.50	Automobile
Pantaloon Retail	India	1	1/10th	Re 0.10	Retail

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