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Sunday, June 20, 2010

ONE SHOULD ALWAYS BUY GOLD

               Before the great depression, most of the world used gold as a currency. Of course, that did mean every time someone purchased something they paid for it in gold. Governments maintained a certain amount of gold in their vaults & paper currency was issued against the value of that gold. (In INDIA, the minimum reserve worth Rs.200 cr should be maintained at any point of time, out of these reserves Gold reserves should be worth Rs.115 cr @ Rs. 94/10 grams & a Forex reserve of Rs 85 cr at the current market price. If actual reserves are more than the minimum reserve RBI may prints new currency notes & issues them to deficit banks in form of loans against gold, foreign exchange, promissory notes & treasury notes) So every time you pay paper money you effectively using gold. This system was the “Gold Standard”. Citizens also had the freedom to exchange these currency notes for gold, as and when they deemed fit.

               The government ensured that no more notes are printed. The reason was simple if they had to print more money they needed more gold in their vaults because every paper currency note out there was essentially gold. And if citizens got the slightest hint that the government is printing currency, they would all land up at the bank to exchange their paper currency for gold. So even if the government was tempted to print money they would think twice before doing it.

               Now, during the time of the great depression, growth was a problem, unemployment was at its peak. Firms were shutting down. One way to create growth was the government printing notes & giving them to people in various ways to spend. Once the citizen got some money in their hands, they would go out and spend it. This ensures that they buy goods & services. And one man’s spending is another man’s income and so the cycle would continue and this would create some growth. And that’s what the government did; they moved out of Gold Standard and went into FIAT Currency i.e. a currency that does not have anything backing it but basically the fiat of government. This gave them the freeway to print any amount of money they want to.

               In fact, in the year 1933, the US government confiscated all the gold that its citizens had through Executive Order 6102 signed by the then President Mr. Franklin D Roosevelt, forbidding the hoarding of gold coins, gold bullion & gold certificates by US citizens. They were of course compensated for their gold at the rate of $20.67 per troy ounce (1 troy ounce=31.1grams). So because of this, the government across the world had the freedom to print currency whenever the economy was in trouble. And as per the basics of economics, an increase in supply leads to a decrease in purchasing power. That’s why economists who follow the Austrian school of economics, say that all paper currencies over a period of time go back to their intrinsic value i.e. zero.

               So that is why whenever there is a hint of a major financial crisis, people figure out that almost any solution that the governments might come up with will ultimately end up printing more & more money (which the US is doing to solve its financial problem and Europe cant due to its structure). This means decreasing purchasing power. The smart money in this situation always moves to gold. As it is now, people end up treating gold as nothing but what it was always used as i.e. CURRENCY. One should always have at least 25 % of its portfolio in Gold in order to hedge inflation.

Always buy gold in parts of SIP Systematic Investment Plans, or go into Gold ETFs...
Some of the GOLD ETFs are -
GOLD BeES (I prefer this as it is the first-ever launched, more experienced and of huge gold deposits)

READ MY POST ON US PRINTING MORE NOTES

GOLD PRICES PERFORMANCE

Gold Price Performance Silver Price Performance

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

SUZLON ENERGY : RIGHTS ISSUE DETAILS

SUZLON ENERGY gave rights issue in the ratio of 2 new shares for 15 held at Rs.63/share(Face Value-Rs.2 and premium of Rs.61), the record date is fixed at 10th June 2010, Suzlon goes ex- rights on 9th June 2010. The Issue Opens at 18th JUNE 2010, Closes on 2nd JULY 2010, Last date for receiving request for split form 25th JUNE 2010.

Here are some details about how will the proceeds from the issue will be utilised -

Gross proceeds of Issue  -                Rs. 1307.66 Cr.
Discharge of Promoter loans
(towards Promoter entitlement) -      Rs. 694.06 Cr.
Issue Expenses                                  Rs. 10.00 Cr.
Net Proceeds                                      Rs. 603.60 Cr.

*The amount of promoter loan Rs. 1175 Cr.

CAPITALIZATION STATEMENT
STANDALONE - DETAILS  
                                   
SHORT TERM DEBT -  Rs.1883.52 Cr.
LONG TERM DEBT - Rs.5717.70 Cr.
TOTAL DEBT - Pre issue- Rs.7601.22 Cr ; Post issue - Rs.6426.22 Cr.
SHARE CAPITAL - Pre issue - Rs.311.35 Cr ; Post issue - Rs.352.86 Cr.
ESOPs O/s - Pre issue -Rs.15.68 Cr ; Post issue -Rs.15.68 Cr
RESERVES & SURPLUS - Pre issue - Rs.5277.24 Cr ; Post issue - Rs.6543.39 Cr.
TOTAL SHARE HOLDERS FUND - Pre issue -Rs.5604.31 Cr ; Post issue -Rs.6911.97 Cr.
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO - Pre issue - 1.36 ; Post issue - 0.93

CONSOLIDATED -  DETAILS  

SHORT TERM DEBT-  Rs.3337.11 Cr.
LONG TERM DEBT - Rs.9330.83 Cr.
TOTAL DEBT - Pre issue -Rs.12667.94 Cr ; Post issue -Rs.11492.94 Cr.
SHARE CAPITAL - Pre issue -Rs.311.35 Cr ; Post issue - Rs.352.86 Cr.
ESOPs O/s - Pre issue -Rs.15.67 Cr ; Post issue - Rs.15.67 Cr.
RESERVES & SURPLUS - Pre issue -Rs.6274.21 Cr ; Post issue - Rs.7540.36 Cr.
TOTAL SHARE HOLDERS FUND - Pre issue -Rs. 6601.27 Cr ; Post issue -Rs.7908.93 Cr.
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO - Pre issue - 1.92 ; Post issue - 1.45.

Now, when the markets price per share are quoting at Rs.53/sh why would anyone subscribe to its Rights issue...........This issue is only meant for SUZLON Promoters....same story as Fortis health care..here SUZLON's promoters will subscribe all 20,75,65,299 shs at Rs.63/sh , raising their holding to 103,38,33,299 shs from 82,62,68,000 shs from 53.08% to 58.59% on new Eq of 176,43,05,042 shs from 155,67,39,743 shs. But will surely reduce some of its debts...which is good news.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

SUZLON DECLARES RIGHTS ISSUE AT Rs.63

As declared earlier Suzlon energy declares rights issue of equity shares of Face value Rs.2.
 Share holders will get 2 shares for every 15 shares held. The rights is priced at Rs.63/sh (including a premium of Rs.61 for each equity share). Record date - 10th June 2010. 

This will mean a 13.33 % of dilution of shares a nearly of 20,75,65,299 shares on the total outstanding shares of 155,67,39,743 shs. The rights issue will garner Rs.1307.66 crs to Suzlon enabling the company to reduce its total debts of Rs.10153 cr. Which will bring down the debts to Rs.8845.34 crs.

It should be noted that Suzlon has restructured its FCCBs at Rs.97.26/sh v/s Rs.359.68/sh ($/Re=44.60).
This means, total number of shares to be issued on conversion of FCCBs - 23,71,52,577 sh (a dilution of 15.23%). Yester day the share prices of Suzlon tanked 8% on bad results but the rights issue news will take back SUZLON to Rs.70

SUZLON ENERGY ANNUAL RESULTS INSIGHTS FY 2009-2010

SUZLON ENERGY ANNUAL RESULT INSIGHTS – FY 2009-2010
NET DEBT REDUCTION- FY 10
- Consolidated net debt as on 31st March 2010 - Rs. 9764 cr.
- Consolidated net debt as on 31st December 2009 - Rs. 10488 cr.
- Net consolidated debt reduced by Rs. 724 cr.
- Net debt of Suzlon Energy Wind as on 31st March 2010 – Rs.10153 cr.
- Net debts reduce by 17% a Rs.2036 cr Y-O-Y.
- HANSEN STAKE NOW AT 26.06%.
- REpower Systems AG stake now at 90.50% v/s 90.71% (due to further issuance of shares as ESOPs)
- RIGHTS ISSUE ANNOUNCED.

SALES FIGURES- FY 10
- India = Q4 FY10- 361 Mw; FY10 - 688 Mw v/s 749 Mw FY09.
- Internationally = Q4 FY10- 290 Mw; FY10- 773 Mw v/s 2041 Mw FY09.
- Total Mw Sales (Suzlon Wind) – Q4 FY10 - 650 Mw; FY10- 1460 Mw.

ORDER BOOK – FY 10
- As on 26th May 2010 – 1126 Mw.
- Order book value as on 26th May 2010 – Rs. 6174 cr.
- Average realisation of Order Book -
 INDIA – Rs. 5.48 cr/Mw.
 INTERNATIONAL – Rs. 5.50 cr/Mw.
 RE Power order book as on 31st March 2010 – Euro 2.1billion(US$2.6bn).

REVENUE - FY 10
- Suzlon Wind Business Revenue – Q4 FY10- Rs.4150 cr; FY10- Rs.9635 cr.
- Consolidated Revenue – Q4 FY10- Rs.6084 cr; FY10- Rs.20620 cr.
- Karnataka wind energy tariff Rs. 3.70/Kwh from Rs. 3.40.
- Gujarat wind energy tariff Rs. 3.56/Kwh from Rs. 3.50/Kwh.
- Global Market Share – Suzlon + RE power – 9.8%; GE wind – 18.6%; Vestas – 19.8%; Siemens – 6.9% as on 31st March 2010.

OTHER FINANCIAL DETAILS -
- Net operating working capital as on 31st March 2010 – Rs. 5103cr v/s Rs.6153 cr.
- Absolute reduction of working capital of Rs. 1050 cr from March 2009 levels.
- Acquition Loans – Rs.2083 cr.
- FCCBs – Rs.2151 cr.
- Capex &Working Capital & Other Loans – Rs.6284 cr.
- Gross External Debt – Rs.10519 cr.
- Loans from Promoter group – Rs.1175 cr.
- Cash Holdings – Rs.1541 cr.
- NET DEBT – Rs. 10153 cr.
- NET EXTERNAL DEBT – Rs.8973 cr.
- Gross Profit/Mw - 9m FY 2009-10 – Rs. 2.03 cr v/s Rs. 2.07 cr in 9m FY 08-09.

DEBT MANAGEMENT EXERCISE –
- DEBT REDUCTION –
- Refinanced acquisition loan of US$465m in Rupee-denomination from SBI.
- Rupee loan refinancing of Rs.10624 Crs done from SBI.
- Rs.6587 cr & trade credits facilities (non-fund based) of Rs.3037 Crs.
- Holiday of 2 years in principal repayments done.
- Issue of GDRs for USD 108 million (Q2 FY 2009-10).
- FCCBs restructuring by removal of covenants & reduced the conversion price to Rs.97.26/sh from Rs.359.68/sh at Rs.44.60/US$.
- Infusion of funds through FCCBs – US$ 90 million.
- Total number of Shares to be issued on conversion of FCCBs – 237152577. (a dilution of 15.23%)
- Infusion of funds by promoters – Rs.1175 Crs.

Sunday, May 30, 2010

Suzlon's CFO Sumant Sinha quits to start his own advisory firm: ET reports

As I had reported in my previous post about Suzlon's CFO quiting and reasons not known, (ET confirms the news) but now he gives reason...
Sumant Sinha, has decided to step down from the position witheffect from 1st June 2010, he will pursue his own entrepreneurial interest and sets up his own financial advisory consultancy.
His first Signed - up client is SUZLON ENERGY LTD, to provide high level strategic advice and counsel to the board and managment team.
"I want to persue my own enterpreneurial path for sometime now and financial advisory firm allows me to launch off on my own and deeper dive in many interesting areas", Sinha said.
"I look forward to my continued association with Suzlon and I am delighted that it will be my first client," he added.
Suzlon's chairman, Tulsi Tanti, said that "Sinha's contribution in buliding relationships with important stake holders has been very valueable in getting Suzlon back on track where it is now well-positioned to ride through the current turbulance in the global environment and to rediscover success once again"

Mean while Suzlon's results was out as expected not good, giving Sales down by 28% at Rs.6160 cr, and Net Loss of Rs.188 cr vs Net Profit of Rs.315 cr. Group Revenue at Rs.20620 cr ($4.3 bn) for year FY09-10.
NET DEBTS as on 31st March 2010 down to Rs.10153 crs v/s Rs.12189 cr. Consolidated Net Debt Rs.9764 crs.
Company approves Rights issue of face value Rs.2 to its existing equity shareholders.

Saturday, May 29, 2010

RE Power FY10 net income up at Euro 57.9 mn (Rs.333.504 cr), But SUZLON's CFO QUITS

RE Power, a subsidiary of Suzlon Energy, has announced its financial year 2009-10 results.
It has reported net income of Euro 57.9 million (Rs.333.504 cr) as against Euro 51.9 million (Rs.298.944 cr) (YoY).

Sales rose 8.5% to Euro 1.3 billion (Rs.7488 cr) versus Euro 1.2 billion (Rs.6912 cr) (YoY).
Earning before interest and tax (EBIT) margin improved at 7.4% versus 6.3%. Order backlog rose 40% to Euro 2.1 billion (Rs.12096 cr) .

REPower Guidance -
-Management expects a 10-20% increase in the overall performance
-Sales guidance of approximately. Euro 1.5 to 1.6 billion (Rs.8640 - Rs.9216 cr)
-EBIT margins seen increasing to 7.5-8.5% .

BUT, Suzlon Energy Ltd's Chief Operating Officer Sumant Sinha has quited today.

Sinha was considered to have been responsible for the company’s recent refinancing of its overseas bonds. An official announcement may be made today, Sinha was previously with Aditya Birla Retail and the Son of fromer finance minister Mr. Yaswant Sinha.....With Sumant quiting future of Suzlon's debt restructuring seems to be in dark........Meanwhile waiting for the official declaration of Suzlons results......
Suzlon Energy's result on 29th May 2010. at 4.30pm Pune, (please notice the timing of post...reported much earlier than all...)

Saturday, May 22, 2010

UPDATE : GRASIM IND SAMRUDDHI DEMERGER

Details as on 21-May-2010
Share price- Rs.2,452.95;
Market Cap- Rs.22,370.79 cr;
52 Week- H- Rs.2,988.00; L- Rs.2,005.55;
P/E- 10.24; EPS- Rs.238.26;
Book value – Rs.1,033.36; Industry P/E - 19.26
Dividend – Rs.30; Fv- Rs.10;
Total Share Issued- 9,16,83,571 shares;
Promoter’s holding- 2,33,81,176 shares; Promoter’s holding in %- 25.50%;

As known to everyone earlier in my previous post Grasim has 65% stake while Grasim's shareholders will have 35% direct stake in Samruddhi Cement. So Grasims share price should adjust for 35% of Samruddhi's business.
On MAY 26 2010 (ex- date) by Ultra Tech Cement closing price (May 25,2010) the merger ratio of 4:7 ie 4 Ultra Tech Cement for 7 Samruddhi Cements. based on 26th May 2010 wednesday's closing price Grasim's share price should adjust by Rs.543 (Ultra Tech share price Rs 950x 4/7).
Samruddhi is expected to be listed by June,2010 & be finally merged with Ultra Tech by July,2010 (merger effective July 01,2010). Samruddhi Cements has 26 crore shares with a Face value of Rs.5.00 , Book value of Rs. 250 , Grasim will transfer Rs.2100 crore debts to Samruddhi Cements

My previous post on this topic on GRASIM SAMRUDDHI DEMERGER MARCH 14,2010

Monday, May 17, 2010

INDIA's FIRST IDR: THANKS TO STANDARD CHARTERED BANK PLC.


Standard Chartered PLC (STAN: LN) Bloomberg is all set to be the first foreign company to list in India through an Indian Depository Receipts (IDR) issue. India is the most profitable unit after Hong Kong. StanChart as it is called in short will offer to sell 24 crore IDR’s through public issue on May 25th 2010.

The issue will be 10 IDR = 1 share of Standard Chartered Plc of US$ 0.50. Like Global Depository (GDR’s) & American Depository Shares (ADS’s), IDR are the derivative instrument with shares as the underlying asset, they allow foreign companies to raise money in India.

StanChart expects to raise $500-$750 million (Rs 2250-3375 Crs). Calculation shows that an issue price of Rs 105-115 per share. This will be Stan Chart’s 3rd listing after London & Hong Kong & its next stop is Shangai.

StanChart is in India from 1858 in Kolkata; here it has 94 branches across 37 cities with over 20 lakh customers. It wants to show its commitment towards India which contributes 12 % of its global revenues. StanChart’s Net Profit grew 30 % CAGR in last 3 yrs, while Profit before Tax grew by 38 %. Base on 2009 results, StanChart’s Price to Book = 2 times, much better than 2.5 times of SBI. P/E at 14.6 times v/s 15.7 of SBI & 29.4 of HDFC Bank. Price band will be announced by May 24th 2010 depending on the closing price of the shares listed in UK.

What does IDRs means to an Indian sharesholders in terms of Taxations.....

Like Global Depository Receipts (GDR’s) & American Depository Shares (ADS’s), IDR are the derivative instrument with parent companies shares as the underlying asset, they allow foreign companies to raise money in India. An IDR holder acquires the same rights as a shareholder, except that he/she can neither attend the AGM nor vote on resolutions. NRI’s can trade in the IDR’s.

The biggest question doing the rounds is – what could be the tax implications for the Indian IDR holder? The good news is that IDR does not come under the purview of Securities Transaction Tax. But the IDR holder will have to pay tax on the dividend income earned. It is not yet clear whether the tax payable would be equal to the Dividend Distribution Tax which for the current fiscal stands at 16.61%. So tax seems sure but the rate is yet unsure.

Then there is the question of short and long term capital gains tax?
Currently, Long term gains made from Indian Stock Exchanges (stock held for more than 12 months) is completely exempted from tax while Short term capital gains tax (held less than 12 months) stands at 15%. But the IDR does not fall under the STT, so maybe it will not enjoy the same benefits as the shares listed on the Indian Exchanges enjoys. So this means that IDR’s will be taxed like any other asset –long term tax- held for over 36 months would be around 20%. Short term tax, when asset is held for less than a year, will be like regular income earned, at 30.9%.
There is no real clarity yet on this treatment of tax but surely, the Govt will have to bring a notification soon. A quick resolution on the tax angle is urgent and imperative or else it could undermine the very lure of this IDR.

According to the red-herring prospectus, the legal regime for IDR’s is still to be tested; investors in IDR’s may not get the benefits of a bonus issue or a rights issue; Even dividend income on IDR’s will be taxed in the hands of the investors and long-term capital gains tax will be another additional burden. Standard Chartered Bank has said whenever the company and/or the depository is unable to make bonus issues or rights issues available to the IDR holders, the depository will try and sell the deposited property that is the subject of the distribution on behalf of the IDR holders and distribute the net proceeds thereof as a cash distribution to the IDR holders.

Standard Chartered said it has agreed that for all corporate actions including voting, rights issues, the payment of dividends and other distributions, it will treat IDR holders on an equitable basis vis-à-vis other holders of shares in the home country (the UK). However, it pointed out that in circumstances where certain corporate actions, which are available to the holders of shares in the home country of the company and other jurisdictions where its shares are listed, are not permitted by Indian laws to be offered to IDR holders.

There is also a term called "Fungibility", now what does this means & how it relates to IDR/ADRS ?
The actual meaning of the word fungible is the ability to substitute one unit of a financial instrument for another unit of the same financial instrument. However, in trading, fungibility usually implies the ability to buy or sell the same financial instrument on a different market with the same end result.


Its a financial instrument (i.e. individual stock, futures contract, options contract, etc.) is considered fungible if it can be bought or sold on one market or exchange, and then sold or bought on another market or exchange.

For example, if one hundred shares of an individual stock can be bought on the NASDAQ in the US, and the same one hundred shares of the same individual stock can be sold on the London Stock Exchange in the UK, with the result being zero shares, the individual stock would be considered fungible. There are many fungible financial instruments, with most popular being individual stocks, some commodities (e.g. gold, silver, etc.), and currencies.

Fungible financial instruments are often used in arbitrage trades, because the difference in the price (the arbitrage part) often comes from a difference in location (the fungible part). For example, if the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate was 1.2500 in the US and 1.2505 in the UK, an arbitrage trader could buy Euros in the US, and then immediately sell Euros in the UK, making a profit of 0.0005 per Euro (or $5 per €10,000), because Euros are a fungible financial instrument. Similarly it implies to Stocks IDRs etc.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Suzlon's FCCB holders waives fine...Sets conversion price of Rs.95-100/sh.

Suzlon Energy had sought for the waiver of penalties that have accrued for breaching terms and conditions set by investors in its Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds. The penalties was amounted to 10 per cent of FCCBs, or $30-50 million. Suzlon told the exchanges that it has managed to remove covenants which was required to fulfil under the FCCB agreement in the meeting of bondholders,on April 29, 2010. The company proposed extraordinary resolutions in relation to the trust deeds and certain terms and conditions of the bonds, including the removal of financial covenants and waiver of any existing or prior breaches.

It has been learned that these two sets of FCCBs worth $300 million Zero Coupon Convertible Bonds(due JUNE 2012) and $200 million Zero Coupon Convertible Bonds(due OCT 2012), have three main financial covenants. First, Net borrowings to tangible Networth cannot be more than 1.5 times. Second, full-year EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation) cannot be less than 1.33 times the debt service coverage requirement, ie, repayment and service cost. Third, Net Borrowings to Net EBITDA should not be more than four times.

Just to remind that the profit of the company has been under pressure for the last three quarters and hence, it has not been able to meet the Net borrowings to Net EBITDA margin,” this was a concern for FCCB holders as this invited penalty from bondholders. It has been learnt that, the company is not expecting an increase in EBITDA in coming quarters. EBITDA will continue to fall for the coming quarters. Suzlon reported an Ebitda of Rs 408 crore in the 9 months to December 31, down from Rs 1,996 crore a year earlier.

Suzlon has reset the conversion price of bonds between Rs 95-100 per share.Suzlon will become the first company to reset the conversion price of FCCBs after the ministry of finance relaxed the guidelines for companies to price their bonds based on share prices of the past six months. Suzlon will pay 1% fees to bondholders for the waiver. Earlier conversion price was Rs.360-370 per share.The covenants have been relaxed for the entire tenure. This new price is likely to result in a dilution of 15.05% for the company. UPDATE- (Set the price Rs.97.26/sh)

Since, Suzlon has already sold its 23,60,00,000(35.22%) depository interest in Hansen Transmissions International NV - HSN:LN held by AE Rotor Holding BV a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of Suzlon Energy Ltd at the price of 95 pence per Depository Interest amounting to USD 350 million, with a locking period for 6 months for the remining stake of 17,46,32,079(26.06%), Which is about to complete by this MAY 2010,this will pegg Suzlon some what around Rs.1000 crs,this will substantially help Suzlon to reduce its current debts of Rs.10,488 crs.

It is awaiting approval from the Reserve Bank of India for the FCCB restructuring.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Talwalkars Better Value Pvt Ltd : TBVF

Price Band - Rs.123-128, Face Value- Rs.10
Issue opens on - 21th April 2010, Wednesday
Issue closes on - 23th April 2010, Friday
QIB Book - 30,25,000 shares (50% of Net issue)
HNI Book - 9,07,500shares (15% of Net issue)
Retail Book - 21,17,500 shares (35% of Net issue)
Total No. of Shares offered - 60,50,000 shares or 25.09%
Equity Shares outstanding after the Issue - 2,41,15,672 Eq Sh
Equity Shares outstanding prior Issue - 1,80,65,672 Eq Sh
Total Size of the Issue- Rs. 74.42 Crs. - Rs. 77.44 Crs.

Talwalkars Better Value Pvt Ltd (TBVF) - Commonly famous as Talwalkars, is India’s largest chain of health centers. The company established in 1932, it operates 58 health clubs in 28 cities, serves 55,000 clients in India.Hence demands premium. Talwalkars were the Official Fitness Partners for Standard Chartered Mumbai Marathon in 2008 and 2009 and Femina Miss India Contest in 2009.

The proceeds will be used for setting up of 27 additional health clubs about Rs.50.22 cr and repaying certain unsecured loans of Rs. 20.59 cr. The issue will constitute 25.09% of the fully diluted post issue paid-up capital of the company. Promoters’ stake will be reduced to 59.39% and non-promoters to 15.42% post issue.

At upper band of Rs.128 the stock is available at 53.9x the P/E & 2.6x the P/Bv based on FY10 post issue EPS of Rs.2.4 & BVPS of Rs 48.6. For the year ended on 31st March 2009 company reported PAT of Rs.5.687cr on total income of Rs.59.424 crs, For the period ended in April-September 2009 ,Company posted PAT of Rs.31.90 cr on the total income of Rs. 358.82 cr.

CARE has assigned an IPO Grade 3 to Talwalkars Better Value Fitness Ltd IPO. This means as per CARE company has 'Average Fundamentals'. CARE assigns IPO grading on a scale of 5 to 1, with Grade 5 indicating strong fundamentals and Grade 1 indicating poor fundamentals.

TBVF IS AT EXPENSIVE VALUATION: BUT GOOD BUSINESS
The company has set a price band of Rs 123 to Rs 128 per equity share of Rs 10 face value. At the lower band of Rs 123 per share, the P/E would be 51.6 times the annualized EPS of Rs 2.4 for the nine months ended December 2009 (on post-IPO equity) and 82 times the EPS of Rs 1.5 (on post-IPO equity) for FY09. At the upper price band of Rs 128 per share, the P/E would be 54 times the annualized EPS for the nine months ended December 2009 and 85 times the EPS for FY09. There is no comparable listed company. The very high valuation already factors in very high growth rates in future.

Friday, April 2, 2010

A LITTLE STORY ON MARKETS (On Request)

There was a small village, everyone there were living happily, one day someone from the big city came with his assistant, he announced that - "I will give Rs. 10 each for every monkey you catch and bring it to me", now the villagers started catching monkeys, soon villagers found a new job. They caught monkeys and sold to that stranger & made good money, after a short while villagers lost their interest. The stranger again announced that - "I will give you Rs. 15 each for every monkey", more monkeys came in, after a while the price of monkey went up to Rs. 60 !!! Suddenly one day the stranger was out of the village & his assistant said - "Look this guy does not pays me much, I want to sell all his monkeys at Rs. 50 each so when he comes back you can sell it back to him for Rs. 70" - the villagers agreed -The assistant sold all the monkeys to the villagers for Rs. 50 and went out of the village. Villagers were now left with their monkeys & still waiting........for the Stranger and his assistant to come... but none of this two came back & left villagers with their monkeys worth nothing...while that strangers made money out of nothing....

THE MORALE OF THE STORY - 
The villagers are we small Investors , our stocks are the monkeys and FII’s (Foreign Institutional Investors) are those strangers !!!
Do learn the lesson from this game.. and Invest safely, invest in good business and for long term... 


REGARDS








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Sunday, March 14, 2010

PRAJ INDUSTRIES : In a Trading Range, But with bullish signs

Praj Industries has been finding exact support at the upward sloping trendline joining the significant bottoms. The upmove from Rs.70 to Rs.100.85 was retraced by about 61.8% to around Rs.81 after which the stock started moving up.

The downmove from Rs.100.85 to Rs.81 took 13 trading days (Fibonacci time period) which was completely retraced only in 5 trading sessions (again a Fibonacci time period). This is called “Faster Retracement” and is a bullish indication.

The downward sloping trendline joining the significant tops has been breached by the stock in the last week and the close has been significantly higher than this trendline. The stock has been consistently making higher bottoms, which is once again bullish for the stock. The volumes have increased in the last few trading sessions indicating participants increased interest in the stock.

Also there will be news soon about the company completing its process of divesting its US-based subsidiary, Praj Schneider due to economic scenario in US.
The mid-cap engineering firm has an equity capital of Rs 36.94 crore. Face value per share is Rs 2.

The current price of Rs 87.70 discounts the company's Q3 December 2009 annualised EPS of Rs 6.31, by a PE multiple of 13.89.

The company has retained rights for process technology for bio-diesel in North America. Meanwhile, the company has launched a new company in US, Praj Americas Inc, operating out of Houston, to address the markets in North, Central and South America.

Praj Industries offers innovative solutions to significantly add value in bio-ethanol, bio-diesel and brewery plants and related wastewater treatment systems for customers, worldwide.

GRASIM SAMRUDDHI DEMERGER: A COMPLICATION, A CONFUSION.

Grasim has declared the demerger of Samruddhi cements, its ratios and demerger process has become some what complicated and confusing for any common shareholder, here I have tried to elaborate some of its key points –
The demerger scheme says every shareholder of Grasim will get 1 share of Samruddhi. Now, Samruddhi has 26 cr shares, with the Face Value of Rs.5.00, Book Value of Rs.250. Grasim will transfer Rs.2100 cr of debts to Samruddhi.

Grasim will hold 65% in Samruddhi & 35% of Grasim shareholders will hold 35% in Samruddhi.

Samruddhi will be listed in stock exchanges hence, providing exit option to its shareholders, further it will be merged with Ultra Tech Cement.

The record date for this merger has been set as 1st October 2009,
So, a share holder of Grasim will get 1 Samruddhi for every 1 Grasim held,
And he will get 4 Ultra Tech Cement shares for every 7 Samruddhi he holds as on record date declared by Ultra Tech Cements. So the price of Samruddhi will depend on the last closing price of Ultra Tech Cements.
On 10th March 2010, A block deal of 100000 shares of ULTRA TECH CEMENTS at Rs.1103/share was done.

Grasim Industries Ltd

I expect the Cement Sector to add around 76mtpa of capacity over FY2010-12E. Such a large capacity addition is expected to eventually create over supply in the market, as demand is not expected to catch up with supply in the short term. Nonetheless, on a positive note, a stable government at the Centre is expected to boost infrastructure spending in the country and, along with the ongoing recovery being witnessed in Real Estate activities, concerns on the demand front appear to have reduced considerably. However, All-India capacity utilisation is expected to drop to 78% in FY2010 from around 85% in FY2009. In the case of Grasim, it is currently in the process of increasing its cement capacity by 4.5mtpa at Kotputli and by 4.4mtpa at Shambhupura, by 3QFY2010E, taking its total standalone capacity to 25.8mtpa in FY2010E. Along with the capacity expansions of 4.9mtpa at Ultratech, the total capacity of the merged entity will touch 48.9mtpa by end-FY2011E. Grasim is India’s sole player in the VSF business and exports a substantial portion of its output. The division, after going through a lean patch over the past one year, due to the overall economic slowdown, has begun to show signs of revival in the current quarter. The company recorded its highest-ever quarterly sales for this division during 2QFY2010, while also achieving the highest-ever operating profit, on account of a substantial reduction in the prices of raw materials such as pulp and caustic soda. The company plans to set up an 80,000MT Greenfield project, at a cost of Rs1,000cr, to meet the growing demand. Going ahead, the volume outlook for this division looks positive, both in the domestic and the international market, although there is little scope for any further price increases, due to a growing price differential between other textile fibers, such as polyester and cotton. We have derived the value of Grasim on an SOTP basis.

I have valued the company’s 65% stake in Samruddhi at an average of an EV/tonne of US $100/Tonne and an EV/EBITDA of 6x FY2011E, based on the de-merger plan. I have arrived at a value of Rs725/share for Grasim’s direct holding in Samruddhi. The value attributable to the 35% stake of Grasim’s shareholders in Samruddhi stands at Rs434/share. We have valued the VSF business at 5x EV/EBITDA, implying a P/BV of 1.75x on an FY2011E basis. I have assigned the valuation multiple based on the VSF business’s superior RoCE as compared to its global peers (which are trading at 3x P/BV, based on CY2010E book value). I have valued the company’s 54.8% stake in Ultratech by assigning a holding company discount of 20%. Hence, our SOTP Fair Value for Grasim works out to Rs2, 548. I upgrade the stock to buy.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

SUZLON ENERGY Q3 FY2009-10 RESULT INSIGHTS

NET DEBT REDUCTION- Q3 FY 10
-Consolidated net debt as on 31st March 2009 - Rs. 11800 cr.
-Consolidated net debt as on 31st December 2009 - Rs. 10488 cr.
-Net consolidated debt reduced by Rs. 1312 cr.
-Profit from the Sale of 35.22% OF HANSEN TRANSMISSION Rs. 252 cr.
-GROSS REDUCTION OF DEBT BY APPROX. 15% OR USD 350 MILLION.
-Acquition loan of USD 780 million PAID-OFF.
-HANSEN STAKE NOW AT 26.06%. (174632079 voting rights)
-REpower Systems AG stake now at 90.71%.

SALES FIGURES- Q3 FY 10
-India contributed 140 Mw v/s 168 Mw in Q3 FY 2008-09.
-Internationally, volumes were 264 Mw v/s 511 Mw in Q3 FY 2008-09.
-Total Mw Sales (Suzlon Wind) - 404 Mw v/s 679 Mw.

ORDER BOOK – Q3FY 10
-As on 30th January 2010 – 1484 Mw.
-Order book value as on 30th January 2010 – Rs. 8128 cr.
-Average realisation of Order Book -
INDIA – Rs. 5.43 cr/Mw.
INTERNATIONAL – Rs. 5.49 cr/Mw.

REVENUE - Q3 FY 10
-Suzlon Wind Business Revenue – Rs. 2453 cr.
-Consolidated Revenue – Rs. 5590 cr.
-Income from operation & maintance activities-
India – Rs. 196 cr
International – Rs. 83 cr.
-Karnataka wind energy tariff Rs. 3.70/Kwh from Rs. 3.40.
-Gujarat wind energy tariff Rs. 3.56/Kwh from Rs. 3.50/Kwh.
-Global Market Share – Suzlon – 9%; RE power - 3.3%; GE wind – 18.6%; Vestas – 19.8%; Siemens – 6.9% as on 31st December 2008.

OTHER FINANCIAL DETAILS -
-Net operating working capital as on 31st December 2009 – Rs. 5179 cr.
-Absolute reduction of working capital of Rs. 974 cr from March 2009 levels.
-Acquition Loans – Rs. 2159 cr.
-FCCBs – Rs. 2229 cr.
-Capex Loans – Rs. 1077 cr.
-Working Capital & Other Loans – Rs. 5009 cr.
-Gross External Debt – Rs. 10474 cr
-Loans from Promoter group – Rs.1175 cr.
-Cash Holdings – Rs.1041 cr.
-NET DEBT – Rs. 10608 cr.
-NET EXTERNAL DEBT – Rs.9433 cr.
-Gross Profit/Mw - 9m FY 2009-10 – Rs. 2.03 cr v/s Rs. 2.07 cr in 9m FY 08-09.

DEBT MANAGEMENT EXERCISE –
- DEBT REDUCTION –
- Monetized 35.22 % stake in Hansen Transmission, realized GBP 224 millions through placement of 236 million Depository interest at a price of 95 pence per depository interest, proceeds used to repay part of acquisition loans.
- Refinancing of loans in Rupee-denomination from SBI.
- Holiday of 2 years in principal payments done.
- Issue of GDRs for USD 108 million (Q2 FY 2009-10)
- Cash infusion of USD 94 million through additional Convertible Bonds issue (Q2 FY 2009-10)

CAPACITY & EXPANSION PLANS –

SUZLON (GDR- SUEL:LI Suzlon Energy Ltd)
CURRENT CAPACITY- 4200 Mw
EXPANSION PLANNED- 1500 Mw
TOTAL POST EXPANSION- 5700 Mw

RE POWER SYSTEMS AG - RPW:GR
CURRENT CAPACITY- 1250 Mw
EXPANSION PLANNED- 450 Mw
TOTAL POST EXPANSION- 1700 Mw

HANSEN Transmissions International NV - HSN:LN
CURRENT CAPACITY- 7300 Mw (Gearbox)
EXPANSION PLANNED- 8000 Mw (Gearbox)
TOTAL POST EXPANSION- 14300 Mw (Gearbox)

Monday, February 1, 2010

RESULTS- Suzlon Energy Posts Profits for Q3 FY10

SUZLON ENERGY has announced its Q3 results of FY10. It has reported Consolidated Net Profit of Rs 14.1 crs as against loss of Rs 34.9 crs, QoQ, boosted by profit on stake sale of Hansen booked Rs 251.96 cr.
Consolidated Total Revenues declined to Rs 5,608 crs from Rs 6,943 crs. Income from Operations slipped to Rs 5,590 crs from Rs 6,920 crs.
Suzlon's Net Debt stood at Rs 10,488 crs as on December 31, 2009.

EBIDTA (earning before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation) was down to Rs 274.6 crs from Rs 724.7 crs.
Adjusted losses without extraordinary was at Rs 221.1 crs v/s loss of Rs 340 crs, QoQ.

Interest expenses were still steady at Rs 289.5 crs v/s Rs 233.85 crore.

Highlights
-Sale of 404 MW v/s expectations of 470-480 MW
-Better sales QoQ at 404 MW v/s 283 MW
-Low volumes hit margins to make operating loss in standalone in wind business
-Operating loss of Rs 74 crs v/s Rs 149 crs
-Order book inflow still weak; added 399 MW in Q3 with only 68 MW from international markets
-No orders from the Chinese and European markets during the quarter
-Order backlog flat QoQ at 1484 MW
-Net debt reduced by Rs 3274 crs from Rs 13,762 crs to Rs 10488 cr by end December.
-Rupee refinancing progressing well; nearly 80% tied-up and full closure expected by end-February 2010

Management says

-Strong revival seen in Indian wind market; 
-New policy initiatives support long-term growth; 
-Order wins from PSUs and large corporates: ACC, GACL, GAIL, ITC, RSMML, among others

HANSEN


-Revenues down 12.1% to Euro 137 million; margins at 9.8% vs 12.9% YoY; QoQ better with improvement from cost control
-Reduction in scheduled deliveries of both industrial and wind turbine gearboxes
-Company says: customers are continuing to defer deliveries of the gearboxes with stricter control of inventories in line with the current operating and credit environment
-Scaled down FY10 guidance implies 40% decline in Q4 revenues
-Upswing in market is expected from July-Sept Quarter

REPOWER

-Flat revenues of Euro315 million v/s Euro 312 million 
-EBIT at Euro 25 million v/s Euro 15 million 
-Margins at 7.9% v/s 4.9%
-Final numbers on February 12, 2010

Thursday, January 21, 2010

MY STOCK PICK: GILLETTE INDIA

As we all know that India is enjoying the demographic dividend, as more than 40% of Indian population is between the age group of 20 – 40 years, and with the population of 1.18 billion in India a 40% means nearly 47.2 cr people are young and if we assume that from this young population minus females needs shaving kit every morning then for next 20-30 years the consumption & sales of these products would be growing Right!! and the company would be delivering consistent performance.But this is just an assumption..what product am I talking about….. It’s GILLETTE!!BSE CODE - 507815
Gillette India is an NSE BSE listed company jointly promoted by House of Poddar Enterprise and Gillette Company, U.S.A. (Gillette). A company engaged in manufacturing shaving blades (7 O’clock, Ejtek shaving brush, Gillette Mach- 3, Mach 3 turbo).Just look at the details and you will understand

Details as on 21-Jan-2010
Share price- Rs.1,359.00;
Market Cap- Rs.4,464.50 cr;
52 Week- H- Rs.1,450.00; L- Rs.575.25;
P/E- 33.97; EPS- Rs.40.33;
Book value – Rs.150.65;
Dividend – Rs.12.50; Fv- Rs.10;
Total Debt- 0.00;
Reserves- Rs.458.30;
Total Share Issued- 3,25,85,217 shares;
Public Shareholding – 36,73,368 shares; Public Shareholding in %- 11.27%;
Promoter’s holding- 2,89,11,849 shares; Promoter’s holding in %- 88.74%;

Procter & Gamble India holds 41.02 % stake in Gillette India, even one of the most smart investor is into it. R.S. Damani holds 1.06 % in Gillette India. Gillette India,have its competitors like HUL,Dabur,Colgate,Godrej in personal care segment but non of these can compete Gillette in male personal care segment, (you can survey it by your self)
Gillette India is a best buy at Rs.1100- 1250, and should accumulate on further dips.
Pass on the legacy to your future generation. A DEBT FREE COMPANY at price of Rs.1100 is definitely a best buy. I bought at Rs.1080 on Diwali, Gillette India have given 1:1 bonus in 1989, A VERY STRONG CANDIDATE FOR THE BONUS ISSUE
I am not giving the price target as I believe this stock is meant for long term holding and not for short term gains. Yes it will not give you instant gains,it is a lazy kind of stock but with an extremely promising fundamentals.Daily vol is around 4169 shs from which 3321 shs -79.66 % is on delivery basis.
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